Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The US Federal Reserve does not intend to ban all cryptocurrency transactions, chairman Jerome Powell emphasized during a meeting held by the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. The revelations came in response to a question from North Carolina Ted Buddha: "From a political standpoint, is it the intention of the Fed to ban or restrict the use of cryptocurrencies in the way it does in China?" Powell replied, "No. The Fed has no intention of banning them. "

However, the chairman added that cryptocurrencies - and in particular stablecoins - must be regulated as they are to some extent outside the regulatory boundaries, so the right course of action is to get them regulated.

Chinese authorities last Friday banned all transactions related to the use of cryptocurrencies along with bitcoin mining. This is another blow to the market, which has recently been reflected in reports of the suspension of operations by one of the largest ETH mining pools (SparkPool and BeePool).

China's recent cryptocurrency hit triggered short-lived declines in the market and fueled the perception that central banks like the Fed were hammering the final nail in a cryptocurrency coffin. In other words, some cryptocurrency investors were concerned that the United States might take similar steps to establish a legal basis for making bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies illegal.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving up towards the supply zone again. This zone is located between the levels of $3,122 - $3,185 and any violation of this zone will be considered bullish with a target seen at $3,281 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down). The immediate technical support is seen at $3,052 and $2,980. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,157
WR2 - $3,675
WR1 - $3,440

Weekly Pivot - $3,036
WS1 - $2,728
WS2 - $2,316
WS3 - $2,003


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has accused 12 New York City crypto options firms of allegedly failing to register with a regulatory body.

In a press release yesterday, the CFTC indicated that it is charging 14 entities in total, with 12 cryptocurrency-focused companies "on the board" due to failing to register as a Futures Commission (FCM) seller. All companies were "allegedly based in New York." The other two allegedly posted misleading information regarding their National Futures Association (NFA) membership and CFTC registration.

The crypto option providers listed include relatively unknown entities such as Bitfxprofit, Star FX Pro, Smarter Signals, and BinanceFx Trade, the latter of which is not affiliated with the major global exchange Binance despite its name.

Companies that offer exposure to commodities through futures must register as FCM with the CFTC. The commission regulates the scope of the derivatives markets, which includes futures, options and swaps, but does not oversee the spot markets for regular traders.

The derivatives market regulator had a busy week after it ordered Kraken to pay civil penalties worth $ 1.25 million on Tuesday on allegations of violating the Commodity Exchange Act.

Last month, the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX agreed to pay the CFTC and FinCEN a civil penalty of $ 100 million for "illegally operating a cryptocurrency trading platform and anti-money laundering violation."


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the key short-term trend line resistance and is heading towards the level of $45,213, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The momentum is strong and positive, so after the breakout and the Fibonacci level violation, another wave to the upside is possible with a target seen at $46,371. The immediate intraday technical support is located at $44,333.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,572
WR2 - $51,601
WR1 - $47,548

Weekly Pivot - $43,366
WS1 - $39,311
WS2 - $35,303
WS3 - $31,312


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is under the yoke of Chinese repression and US regulations: the price of $100,000 by the end of 2020 is already a product of wild fantasies, not a fruitful fact



Bitcoin is under the yoke of repression and a Chinese ban. The price of $100,000 before the end of the year already seems unimaginable, and not a real and fruitful fact.

Repression from China and a complete ban on the cryptocurrency market may contribute to the fact that other countries, and of course the United States, will seek benefits from this event.

The total hash power of the world is now relocated to the US. Banks will introduce trading in financial instruments. China's ban on cryptocurrencies is also linked to the migration of mining capacity to the United States.

Back in April, we can recall a total power outage in Xinjiang, which served as a catalyst for the fall of the hashrate. China does not want to take risks when it knows that the hashrate is under US control.

It is more profitable for them to completely ban cryptocurrencies and continue developing their digital yuan, which, by the way, has already been tested for transactions between the UAE and China.

Many countries of the world believe that bitcoin should become the most important protective asset against inflation and a worthy replacement for gold. However, only China does not want to take this idea seriously.

China has completely banned the cryptocurrency market, and the US continues to look for alternatives and create regulatory groups to control the cryptocurrency market. Many American firms are competing to launch bitcoin ETFs in the US and are waiting for a decision from the SEC. The Bitcoin ETF is already successfully traded in Canada.

Gary Gensler is confident that the launch of Bitcoin-ETF can take place as early as this year, but this product must be regulated and strictly comply with the unwritten rules of mutual funds, which must be listed on stock exchanges according to the law of 1930.

Bitcoin can be completely tied to global economic data, as well as the US dollar index. Digital gold can be less volatile and sensitive to various events and calls from different countries.

With regard to the further growth of bitcoin, so far everything is not so clear. However, the fear and greed coefficient still demonstrates the presence of greed on the crypto arena, which can lead to a deep correction.

Now digital gold is below the most important support level, in order to gain bullish movement again and rise to a price of $50,000, bitcoin must overcome the milestone of $43,900.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BITCOIN: techincal analysis of the current situation




The daily time frame still shows uncertainty and consolidation. Bears cannot break support levels that play quite a significant role now. As a result, bitcoin has come under pressure of the congestion of such levels as 42,757.60 (the weekly Fibo Kijun) – 42,284.36 (the daily Tenkan) – 41,513.12 (the monthly Fibo Kijun + weekly Senkou Span A). If the price breaks this congestion and goes beyond the daily cloud (40,088.88), it will reinforce bears' positions and open the way to a deeper decline. If an uncertain candlestick (i.e. a candlestick with equally long shades and a short body) is formed at September's closure and if the price keeps rebounding from support levels, the bearish trend will probably reverse. Therefore, the bullish scenario is likely to unfold. In such a case, the key resistance levels will lie at 45,032.73 (the weekly Tenkan + daily Fibo Kijun) and 46,182.11 - 46,224.80 - 46,960.38 (the monthly Tenkan + weekly and daily Kijun).



Consolidation on the daily time frame prevents us from determining the trend direction on smaller time frames. So the situation is uncertain at the moment. The key levels on the smaller time frames can be found at 42,530.59 (the weekly long-term trend) and 41,395.98 (the central pivot level). They are reinforced by the levels of bigger time frames. Any activity above the mentioned levels will mean the dominance of bulls. The intraday upside targets can be found at the resistance of the common pivot levels. Currently, we can witness consolidation near R2 (43,238.23), and the next target is R3 (43,977.73). If the price breaks below these key levels, bears will take the lead. The downside targets are the support of the common pivot levels at 40,293.23 – 39,553.73 – 38,450.98.


When conducting the technical analysis, the following tools are applied:
bigger time frame – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels
H1 – Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (the weekly long-term tendency)






Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin imminent upside breakout!


Bitcoin continues to move sideways but it should exit this range soon. The price is traded at 43,184 at the time of writing below 43,835 today's high. Technically, the price action invalidated a deeper drop, so we could search for new buying opportunities. BTC/USD has shown some oversold signs, but it's premature to consider going long before getting confirmation.

It's up by 2.68% in the last 24 hours, but it is still in the negative territory in the last 7 days. BTC/USD has printed a minor triangle pattern in the short term. Escaping from this formation could bring fresh opportunities in Bitcoin.


BTC/USD DOWNSIDE INVALIDATED!


As you can see on the H4 chart, the price of Bitcoin failed to stabilize under the ascending pitchfork's lower median line (lml) signaling strong upside pressure. Now it has found temporary resistance right above the weekly pivot point (43,381.51).

Technically, a valid breakout through the immediate downtrend line may signal a potential growth at least towards the median line. Failing to reach the downtrend line or registering a false breakout may bring a new sell-off.


BITCOIN FORECAST!
A new higher high, jumping and closing above 44,377, and a valid breakout through the immediate downtrend line may signal further growth in the short term.

On the other hand, dropping and closing under 40,192 could announce a deeper drop.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bulls continues to defend support at $40,000.


Bitcoin is trading above $40,500 and below $44,800. Price is moving mostly sideways for the last few sessions. The $40,000 price level is a confirmed support and breaking below it will provide a new sell signal.



Blue line- resistance

Green rectangle- support

On the other hand there is technical resistance by the trend line at $44,800. Breaking above the trend line will be a sign of strength. So far price has formed also three lower highs implying that bulls become weaker as each bounce makes lower highs. I favor the scenario where price breaks to the downside and moves towards $35,000 at first. However bears will need to break below the green rectangle first.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for LITECOIN, LTC, for September 30 - October 01, 2021: Buy above $146,96 (SMA 21)



Litecoin has been trading below a downtrend channel since September 15. At the same time the price has been plotting a descending wedge pattern. In the last hours of trading, the crypto has broken this pattern. Consolidating above from the SMA 21, the Litecoin is likely to gain bullish momentum above this level.

Despite the bullish target, LTC is facing a lot of obstacles ahead such as the first resistance line at EMA 200 (167.50) 7/8 of murray (175.00) and the psychological level of 200.00 located at 8/8 murray.

On the other hand, the high level of indecision overshadows the bullish outlook. The key resistance is at the 200 EMA around 167.50. This will be a strong top for LTC. If the price fails to break it, there could be a new bearish move targeting 5/8 murray level.

The key pivot point for now is 146.96 where there is the SMA of 21 in the 4-hour chart. If LTC returns to trade below this level, the scenario will turn negative and the price could fall to 125.00 level of 5 / 8 by murray.

The technical reading of the eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal. An upward movement is likely to happen to 167.50 in the next coming days. If this happens, the eagle indicator to be extremely overbought and it will be a sell signal. On the contrary, if LTC breaks below 146.00, it will be clear that it is time to buy.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 30 - October 01, 2021
Resistance (3) 158,89
Resistance (2) 156,55
Resistance (1) 154,18

Support (1) 148,39
Support (2) 143,68
Support (3) 137,89


Trading tip for LTC for September 30 - October 01, 2021
Buy above 146,96, (6/8) with take profit at 167,50, stop loss below 143,50.

Sell below 145,00 (SMA 21) with take profit at 125,00 (5/8), stop loss above 148,50.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BIS: Banks see risk in CBDC


Problems on the US stock market are increasingly fueling rumors about the safe harbor that central banks may offer during financial crises. This refers to national digital currencies, about which representatives of various financial institutions have been talking a lot lately.

We are talking about those countries that are more or less doing well with their economies. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank may soon release their proposals for introducing digital currencies in their countries.



The Bank for International Settlements reported that during a crisis, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) "could be perceived as a safe haven". The fact that in times of crisis many households prefer to keep their funds in a jar and withdraw deposits from bank accounts has long worried central banks. With the introduction of CBDC, you can try to reduce transaction costs, which very seriously affect the stability of the banking and financial systems in crisis. It is not for nothing that central banks begin to pump liquidity, which helps commercial banks to cope with the consequences of the crisis.

Another argument for central banks to introduce their digital tokens is the relatively high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, which has long been called an alternative to inflation-stricken fiat currencies. The ability to conduct instant international transactions with minimal losses on commissions and with little or no regulation is also quite an attractive argument. China is already in the final stages of testing its digital yuan, which is prompting other countries to follow suit.

In addition, the report also shows how CBDCs may affect the corporate banking sector and its giants. There are several negative factors for banks. With the introduction of CBDCs, they could seriously lose some commercial and private deposits, jeopardizing the industry. "Government-backed digital currencies could lead to higher volatility in deposits and/or a significant, long-term reduction in customer deposits," according to the report. "This could, under certain circumstances, affect bank profitability, lending, and the overall provision of financial services."

Both of the risks could be managed by forcing tight controls on the CBDCs. Tight limits on transactions or holdings of the digital currencies could mitigate such dangers, as could a lengthy transition period before launching the new assets. Commercial banks will not stand aside and wait for their business to crash. They will most likely develop their class of digital tokens, which will be able to partially recoup their losses but that is only a distant prospect.

Wall Street and the crypto sector are eagerly awaiting a Fed research paper in the coming days. The draft is expected to be sent out for general discussion before the central bank takes action and announces the adoption of a digital dollar. The Fed recently contributed to the BIS study, suggesting that the issues they outlined could add to the expected report.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, while trading continues in a narrow range, the bulls have a strong interest in cryptocurrency. The bulls have already managed to take the middle of the $42,700 channel and now the price is consolidating above this range, which will allow counting on the renewal of the upper border of the side channel located at $44,990. A breakout of that level will certainly lead to a larger upward correction to the area of highs at $47,900 and $50,800. If the bears regain the volumes of the market and set short positions below $42,730, most likely we will see an immediate test of $40,600 support, below which the bulls may start to have real problems. The risk of the breakout of this level is slightly weakened, but till the BTC will not break above the MA200, it will be wrong to speak about the bullish sentiment in the market.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 30,.2021 - Symmetrical triangle in the play

Technical Analysis:




BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $42,950.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for the potential breakout of the symmetrical triangle to confirm further direction.

Upisde breakout of resistance at $44,350 can confirm test of $48,700

Downside breakout of support at $40650 can confirm test of $39,600





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 30, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Elon Musk is convinced that governments will not be able to destroy cryptocurrencies.

Recent actions by China to further bans on decentralized digital assets were the subject of a Tesla CEO's speech at CodeCon on September 28. Musk admitted that the key conclusion that can be drawn from recent events is that the Chinese government "does not love" cryptocurrencies.

While he has not been able to pinpoint what lies behind such a level of hostility, Musk has suggested that the Chinese Communist Party is biased towards cryptocurrencies as they pose a threat to a centralized government:

"I suppose cryptocurrency is essentially intended to undermine the power of a centralized government, and they don't like it, I guess."

Musk admitted that crypto is valuable because governments are unable to control it:

"You know, when governments can't keep their hands off the cookie jar and edit money databases, it probably has some value."

Commenting on his ability to move the market with a single tweet, Musk jokingly stated that it would be a good thing for the market to move upward as a result. With this in mind, he admitted that the long-term perspective is important for cryptocurrencies.

The billionaire added that "destroying" cryptocurrencies is a mission with no chance of success. He did not rule out that actions similar to those currently carried out by China may, however, contribute to a significant slowdown in the development of the industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support seen at the level of $2,728. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,980 and $3,052. The momentum is negative and bears are back in control of the market. The last week low located at the level of $2,639 might be tested soon is the bearish pressure prevails. Please notice the weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,157
WR2 - $3,675
WR1 - $3,440

Weekly Pivot - $3,036
WS1 - $2,728
WS2 - $2,316
WS3 - $2,003


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021