Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Sparkpool, the second largest Ethereum mining pool in the world, is freezing due to ongoing cryptocurrency suppression in China.

The mining pool has officially announced that it has suspended access for new users in mainland China in response to the implementation by Chinese authorities of new measures to combat cryptocurrency adoption in the country.

After initial restrictions introduced last Friday, Sparkpool will continue to shutdown services, with plans to suspend existing users both in China and overseas on September 30.

According to the announcement, the measures are aimed at ensuring the security of users' property in response to "regulatory policy requirements".

Launched in China in early 2018, Sparkpool has grown to become one of the world's largest Ethereum mining pools alongside the world's largest Ethermine. Currently, Sparkpool's mining capacity accounts for 22% of the global Ethereum hashrate, slightly less than Ethermine's share of 24%.



Technical Market
Outlook The ETH/USD pair had been rejected from the 50% Fibonacci retracement and is approaching the technical support seen at the level of $2,861. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,977 and $3,052. The momentum is negative and bears are back in control of the market. The last week low located at the level of $2,639 might be tested soon is the bearish pressure prevails.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,157
WR2 - $3,675
WR1 - $3,440

Weekly Pivot - $3,036
WS1 - $2,728
WS2 - $2,316
WS3 - $2,003


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

SparkPool suspends registrations for local and international users. DeversiFi explains the recent $ 23.7 million transaction is an internal error.

The world's second-largest Ethereum mining pool, SparkPool, recently announced that it will suspend registrations for everyone else, in addition to their earlier declaration that they will stop providing services to new Chinese users.The world's second-largest Ethereum mining pool, SparkPool, recently announced that it will suspend registrations for everyone else, in addition to their earlier declaration that they will stop providing services to new Chinese users.



The resolution will take effect on September 30 in the wake of China's tougher regulatory requirements on cryptocurrencies.

Recall that last week, Chinese authorities stepped up their crackdown on cryptocurrencies, declaring all activities related to it illegal. This happened at the initiative of the People's Bank of China, and resulted in all crypto services being officially prohibited in the country. All foreign transactions in this direction are also deemed illegal.

The struggle started early this year, when the Chinese government decided to eradicate digital currency mining. It led to a sharp drop in computing power (hashrate), but over the summer the situation has stabilized. The PBOC then banned banks and non-bank payment institutions such as Ant Group, a subsidiary of Alibaba, from providing digital currency services. Now the time has come for a complete official ban.

Surprisingly, the market response was not as dire as it might have been if this had happened a year or two ago. There was only a correction, which suggests that the crypto market is really a separate digital direction of the future.

Going back to SparkPool, it currently provides around 142 TH / s, which is roughly 22% of the hashrate of the entire network. It is the second largest miner after Ethermine.

On a different note, an ERC-20 token transaction worth $ 23.7 million took place on Monday. Bitfinex reportedly spent such a large amount of money when it was transferring $ 100,000 USDT in the decentralized Ethereum-based exchange DeversiFi. The transaction should have cost less than $ 5. DeversiFi said the high commission is the result of an internal error and promised to deal with it very quickly.



With regards to Bitcoin, a lot currently depends on $ 42,500 because climbing above it will result in a further jump to $ 44,990, $ 47,900 and $ 50,800. But if bearish traders manage to push the token down below $ 44,990, the rate will plunge to $ 37,300 and $ 33,800.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

US Congress will vote for the "infrastructure package" on September 30



Bitcoin continues to stay inside the triangle, which is a descending trend line and a support level of $ 40,746. In recent weeks, the price has rebounded from the level of $ 40,746 and cannot consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, everything should be decided in the coming days – either the level of $ 40,746 or the trend line will be broken. Depending on this, a further decline or new growth of the world's main cryptocurrency can be expected. We believe there are more chances for the decline to resume. The reasons for this have already been repeatedly mentioned. However, a couple more reasons were added to this list yesterday.

First, the author of the best-selling book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", Robert Kiyosaki, said that the stock market could collapse as early as October. And although he did not say anything like that about the cryptocurrency market, if one market collapses, the collapse of another may follow. Moreover, Bitcoin is a risky asset, and risky assets are disposed of first of all when it comes to the occurrence of a dangerous situation. In addition, Kiyosaki said that the United States can follow the example of China and completely ban bitcoin. According to the author, China decided to abandon cryptocurrencies in order to introduce a digital yuan into the financial system, which it could fully control. Kiyosaki says this is a common practice for communist countries. However, if the US authorities decide to get rid of bitcoin, then no one will be able to prevent them, and in his opinion, the country itself will come closer to the communist regime.

Second, it became known that the US Congress will vote for the "infrastructure project" on September 30, which has caused a huge amount of debate among participants in the cryptocurrency market in recent months. It was learned that the US government is going to raise about $ 28 billion from taxes on cryptocurrency transactions. In particular, all transactions over $ 10,000 will have to go through the IRS. If earlier, these amendments to the tax code were only a distant future, then in the near future, they may become a reality. This will mean that many investors will refuse to invest in Bitcoin, as everyone knows that many people use this cryptocurrency for illegal transactions. In particular, tax evasion. In any case, the more the legislation related to bitcoin and the entire crypto market is tightened, the higher the probability that bitcoin will continue to fall, and not start new growth. Nothing will prevent all forecasters who are now talking about $ 100,000 per coin or $ 250,000 from saying a year later that governments have destroyed Bitcoin and they no longer believe in its growth. Therefore, such news should be taken very seriously. Moreover, the US can also create a digital dollar, which will be designed to displace Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.



A downward trend can still be observed in the four-hour timeframe. Bitcoin declined to the support level of $ 40,746 four times and rebounded each time. Along with this, the price also failed to consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud and above the trend line. Therefore, it cannot be said that the bears are currently weak. If the trend line is broken, it is recommended to buy Bitcoin with the targets of $ 46,600 and $ 51,350. But if the level of $ 40,746 is broken, then a further decline can be expected to the level of $ 31,100.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for September 28, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has dropped to sub $42,000 mark as it continues to trade within a range. The crypto might be unfolding a potential triangle structure before dropping towards $37,000-38,000 levels, which is fiboacci 0.618 extension of the drop between $53,000 and $42,000. We can expect bulls to be back in control thereafter and push higher towards $65,000 at least.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $42,600 levels at this point in writing and is expected to drift sideways for a while. Please note if the price rallies from here and breaks above $48,000-49,000 zone, it will confirm a potential bottom in place and that bulls are back in control. Immediate price support is seen around $40,000, while resistance is at $48,000-50,000 mark.

Bitcoin structure remains bullish until prices stay above $35,000-36,000 zone going forward. Traders might be willing to initiate long positions against $35,000 mark with potential target above $65,000 in the next few weeks.


Trading plan:
Potential rally towards $65,000 against $35,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

China's repression may open up opportunities: Senator Patrick Toomey Jr. is confident that the US can receive many privileges and benefits from another artificially created repression from the Chinese government



China went all-in and completely tightened the rules regarding the crypto market, recognizing cryptocurrencies as illegal. What can this mean for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market?

The latest calls from China regarding the fight against bitcoins cause massive fears among investors, they begin to panic and do not know how much bitcoin can fall if it goes deeper into a correction.

Bitcoin fell on Friday, after the People's Bank of China and other regulatory authorities imposed a ban on the use of cryptocurrencies, saying that they are all illegal and should be completely banned.

Bitcoin reacted very sharply to such calls and lost in price and pulled the entire altcoin cryptocurrency market with it.

Digital gold fell to $40,500, and the reason for this was the statement from China about the ban on cryptocurrency transactions and their recognition as illegal.

However, US Senator Patrick Joseph Toomey Jr. is sure that not everything is so bad and ambiguous for bitcoin, the United States of America and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Repression can open up opportunities. Senator Toomey is sure that the United States of America can get a lot of privileges and benefits from the next artificially created repressions from the Chinese government, in general - this is a huge prospect for the United States and the whole world.

The US does not share such strict regulatory measures and I am sure that the US, unlike China, will never introduce such strict draconian rules in relation to bitcoin and the entire altcoin market, since the US economic system has a structural advantage over China.

Senator Toomey was also supported by the odious bitcoin whale Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, and said that the US could really get a lot of benefits from China's repression.

Senator Toomey also believes that economic freedom leads to the well-being of citizens. The United States will never be like the total control, centralization of power, elimination of confidentiality inherent in the political regime of the People's Republic of China.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD vulnerable to more downside.

XRPUSD continues to trade below the $1 price level. The last couple of sessions no progress was made, price is mostly moving sideways. However I believe the most probable outcome would be for price to remain under pressure.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracement

XRPUSD is making lower lows and lower highs. So far price has retraced 61.8% of the upward movement from $0.51. The RSI has not provided us with a bearish divergence yet. Bears remain in full control of the trend. My next downside target for XRPUSD is between $0.75 to $0.70.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: ambiguity from every angle. Important week ahead, what to watch out for?

Bitcoin has recovered slightly from last week's fall. And interestingly, the descending flag, which was marked at the beginning of the month, has been clearly worked out. Now we see two bearish flags on the daily chart, and these figures, as you know, often go in pairs.

Thus, the bearish signal can be considered completed, while the support zone of 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 has resisted. Now the question that probably interests everyone is: where next?

From a technical point of view, we can now see the drawing of the second flag canvas - consolidation in the range between the support area 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 and the resistance at 44,807.24 (red dotted line).

Further, the direction will depend on which of the boundaries of the aforementioned sideways trend is broken through by BTC/USD. If the price goes up, the price may return to $48,000 per coin, which will give investors hope for further growth.

But the breakdown of the support area at 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 and consolidation below it will be a clear bearish signal. And then the milestones on the road to $30,000 per coin would be $36,000 and $34,000 per coin.

Now let's look at the fundamental background. Last week, negative news rained down on Bitcoin: first, a flight from risk amid the crisis of the Chinese developer Evergrande (this threat has not yet passed), then the unflattering comments of SEC Chair Gary Gensler. On Friday, pressure intensified amid another announcement by China about a new wave of repression against cryptocurrency.

This week promises to be fun too. The industry's attention will be focused on voting on the infrastructure bill. It was approved in the Senate, but today (if not postponed), a final vote is due.

It is important for the crypto market because the version of the document adopted in the Senate contains a controversial description of a" broker", which can have far-reaching consequences for the US cryptocurrency business. Efforts are still being made to change its language, and leaders include figures such as Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis and defender Caitlin Long.

In the current text, a broker is described as "any person who is responsible for the regular provision of any digital asset transfer service on behalf of another person." And so far it is completely unclear who will eventually be obliged to pay the tax.

As for the likelihood of bitcoin falling even lower, the statement that 40,000 for bitcoin is a new 10,000 has not yet lost its relevance. Whether cryptocurrencies will be able to defend this support, we will probably see in the near future.

Another interesting announcement came today from Anthony Scaramucci, manager of one of the leading hedge funds Skybridge Capital. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he stated that most institutional investors remain wary of investing in the cryptocurrency market and blockchain technology.

This statement is in stark contrast to the general perception that large participants have entered the cryptocurrency market and are supposed to keep the market from plummeting. Scaramucci claims that there are no institutions on the market, and if there are, then there are no more than 10% of them.

But he does not deny that this class of investors will soon actively enter the industry. Scaramucci said that institutional giants or Wall Street banks will start buying crypto startups soon and hope that decentralized finance (Defi) will go mainstream.

Scaramucci himself, on behalf of Skybridge Capital, has applied for a Bitcoin ETF with the US SEC and is currently awaiting approval. The firm also bought carbon credits to offset the carbon footprint of storing bitcoins.

This hedge fund manager is one of the biggest proponents of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, so his comments came as a surprise to many.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for RIPPLE, XRP for September 27 - 28, 2021: Key level $ 0,9500 (SMA 21)



Ripple is trading above the 21 SMA in 4-hour charts, slightly above the bearish channel that is projected from September 10. Above the bullish channel, it is forming a technical pattern of an ascending wedge. A recovery is expected above 0.9576 in the next few hours.

At the fundamental level, on September 24 the People's Bank of China (PBoC) published a new set of measures to promote interdepartmental coordination in an effort to crack down on cryptocurrency exchanges. The measures are intended to cut payment channels, ban websites and mobile applications.

The news is generating uncertainty in the crypto market, and could escalate a panic. This could weaken the main cryptocurrency BTC and in turn the altcoins could fall like Ripple. Therefore, if BTC consolidates below the psychological level of 40,000, the scenario will be very bearish for XRP. So, it could fall to the level of 0.65 and 0.50.

While the market consolidates, we can buy XRP above the 21 SMA with targets at the 200 EMA located at 1.0410 and 1.0742 (3/8), the eagle indicator is showing bullish signal.

The EMA of 200 is the key as long as the price of Ripple is below this level. Any attempt to rise and any fake breakouts will be a good opportunity to sell Ripple with targets at 0.9766 and and 0.8789 level of 1/8 murray.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 27 - 28, 2021
Resistance (3) 1,0303
Resistance (2) 0,9910
Resistance (1) 0,9686

Support (1) 0,9293
Support (2) 0,9069
Support (3) 0,8789


Trading tip for RIPPLE for September 27 - 28, 2021
Buy above 0,9576 (SMA 21) with take profit at 0,9766 and 1,0410 (EMA 200), stop loss below 0,9230.

Sell below 0,9230 with take profit at 0,8980 and 0,8789 (1/8), stop loss above 0,9520.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin could drop to $30k by the end of the year; how likely is it?

Bitcoin successfully bounced off $40k early last week and has since firmly settled in the $43k - $45k corridor. At the same time, the coin is in the stage of consolidation without claims to exit the current range of fluctuations. It is also worth noting the shaken confidence of long-term cryptocurrency holders, who staged a local sale of the coin in mid-September. The behavior of medium-term holders is also not encouraging, as the number of BTCs that has not moved in three months has reached a low since mid-2015. PlanB, who predicted a possible drop of bitcoin to $30k at the end of this year, also added fuel to the fire.

Crypto analyst PlanB has identified a scenario in which Bitcoin will fall to $30k at the end of 2021, according to the S2F price movement modeling algorithms. The speculation was made by the creator of the Stock to Flow model of bitcoin, who stated that if the price movement continues according to the time model, the coin will cost $30k. At the same time, the S2F model still expects to see the price of bitcoin in the $100k region. The Stock to Flow model is based on calculating the ratio of market supply and annual growth of a cryptocurrency. In other words, the main idea of this model is that the more scarce an asset is, the more valuable it is.



Despite some chaos from this statement, multiplied by the nervousness of the market, the issue of falling to $30k is being seriously discussed. Such a scenario should not be completely ruled out, but this is unlikely given the growing inflation, maintaining the current rate and other positive theses voiced at the Fed meeting. In addition, we should not discount the growing institutionalization of bitcoin and its gradual introduction into all spheres of life of ordinary people. Whales continue to accumulate BTC volumes, and the currency hash rate is setting new local highs. In October, an important Taproot update will start, which will also become an important lever in the investment attractiveness of the coin. The main fundamental and medium-term factors are entirely on the side of bitcoin, and therefore there is every reason to count on the growth of the asset by the end of the year.

If we consider a more local perspective, then everything looks more gloomy due to the next portion of the bans by the Chinese authorities. Due to the complete ban on cryptocurrency transactions in China and the persecution of Korean crypto exchanges, massive movements of bitcoins will begin, which will create a heavy load on the network of currency and platforms. This can be fraught with problems in the operation of the main network, as well as possible fluctuations in the value of bitcoin, which can provoke a sale. Right now, the cryptocurrency has recovered from falling to $40k and is in the stage of price consolidation. We should not expect sharp or systematic periods of growth in the near future since the main task of the coin is to stabilize the price. In the third quarter, this cycle should end and provoke active market growth in the final quarter of 2021. The most acceptable strategy for most players now is the accumulation of coins that consolidate at local lows.

Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the local corridor of $43k - $44.5k, and over the past day, the price has increased by 5%. At the same time, trading volumes remain at an average level, and the asset itself is quoted at $43.5k. Bulls and bears arrange local battles, but it is impossible to significantly influence the price even against the backdrop of negative news from China and nervousness associated with Korean crypto exchanges. This indicates a stabilization of the price, and therefore soon we will start active accumulation of BTC.

On the four-hour chart, the coin looks weak, there are prerequisites for movement towards the lower border of the current fluctuation range. The RSI indicator started a downward movement, which indicates the strengthening of sellers' positions, and the stochastic formed a bullish crossover, but began to decline. A bearish divergence is potentially forming on MACD, but, most likely, the metric will also begin to decline after leaving the red zone.



On the daily chart, the situation has leveled off and bitcoin is confidently moving flat. The RSI and stochastic indicators are moving along the 50 mark, and the MACD forms the prerequisites for an upward movement, which is also fraught with divergence. Given the current performance of technical indicators, bitcoin will continue to move sideways with attempts to exit the current range of fluctuations. Taking into account the news background and the constant movements of coins due to problems in South Korea, breakout attempts are likely to be bearish, and therefore the probability of another retest of $40k increases.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano announces stablecoin issuing and begins DeFi sector developing

After a significant drop in mid-September and a rather unsuccessful Alonzo update, ADA managed to prevent the fall near the $2 level. The cryptocurrency continued to swing in the narrow range and was accumulating for the past few weeks. However, Cardano developers are working on the issues and have already begun the gradual launch of smart contracts in the mainnet. In addition, in the near future, there will be a significant development of the Cardano ecosystem, which may have a positive impact on the quotation of its coin.

The most notable news regarding the ADA/USD pair was the announcement of the first algorithmic stablecoins launch in the mainnet. The coin is called Djed and will be provided with the support of smart contracts. The algorithms will use the basic coins for transactions. It is needed for the new Cardano token to swing around $1. The ability to pay commissions in the ADA network is called the main feature of stablecoin. In addition, new algorithms were created for potential use in DeFi projects. Also, the introduction of its coin will help optimize the blockchain and the Cardano ecosystem as a whole. This is a very important feature, given that the project announced a collaboration with Dish Network. The cooperation is aimed at the integration of blockchain into the company's business processes.

The second important announcement was Cardano's $100 million investment in the development of DeFi projects based on ADA. It will significantly increase the number and efficiency of decentralized finance projects, which will influence the development of the entire Cardano ecosystem. In addition, Chainlink is cooperating with the project and is helping to create smart contracts for the DeFi applications. In the short term, these announcements will not bring much growth to the cryptocurrency, but it could potentially be perceived as an intention to compete with ETH and SOL in the DeFi and NFT spheres. The development of the ecosystem will directly affect the price of the cryptocurrency, but this process will take some time, as optimizing processes and implementing new algorithms require a lot of resources.

There is no doubt that the cryptocurrency will continue to expand and grow in volume as news tells about the Cardano ecosystem's bright future. Today is seen as a profitable entry point into the ADA market. Over the past 24 hours, the ADA/USD pair gained 1% and is quoted at $2.25 as of 3 p.m. At the same time, daily trading volumes remain low, around $3 billion with a market capitalization of $72 billion. Technical indicators show the cryptocurrency is consolidating, as demonstrated by mirror indicators of the price after the formation of a bullish engulfing candlestick on September 22. On the daily chart, technical indicators signal a sideways trend due to price stabilization. Stochastic oscillator and RSI are moving along the 40, and MACD has moved out of the red zone and continues sideways under the zero level.



The situation is similar on the 4-hour chart, though stochastic started declining above the 40 mark, while the RSI managed to stabilize. Considering ADA's unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance located at $2.4, the market is gradually accumulating the necessary volumes and the coin will test that level later. While the coin continues to swing in the range of $2.14-$2.25, this period may be considered as an entry point or a possibility to buy more coins with the chances of a further uptrend. Cardano's ADA will most likely start using the potential of the Alonzo update already in October, which may attract new users. This may allow implementing a bullish momentum that is beginning to form now.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021