Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis for Bitcoin

Bitcoin



The bulls were able to stop a major decline at the close of the previous week by forming a long lower shadow on the weekly candlestick. Due to this, we have seen consolidation in the accumulation area of various levels and continuous uncertainty in the last few days. The center of gravity can now be designated at 43883 - 42753 (daily Tenkan + weekly Fibo Kijun). Currently, the resistances that hinder the development of the upward movement can be noted at the borders of 45033 (weekly short-term trend) and 46180 - 46960 (daily levels + weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan).

Now, the bears have to break through the levels of 41513 - 41537 (monthly Fibo Kijun + weekly Senkou Span A) to regain their advantages and opportunities, and then leave the daily cloud and update last week's minimum extremum (39491).



Bitcoin has moved above key levels in the smaller timeframes, which are joining forces around 42658 - 43134 (weekly long-term trend + central pivot level). This arrangement favors the bullish mood to develop. The upward pivot points are the resistances of the classic pivot levels at 44611 - 45661 - 47614. It is worth noting that the breakdown of the key support levels (42658 - 43134) and consolidation below will change the current balance of power on the hourly chart, which will favor the bears. In this case, we can consider the support of the classic pivot levels set at 41607 - 39655 - 38604 to be the downward pivot points.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this cryptocurrency.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 27,.2021 - Downside rotation in play towards $41.000

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading downside in last 12 hours and I see potential for further downside rotation.


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong downside trend in the background and no signs for the reversal, I see potential for the downside continuation and test of $41,000 and $40,000.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $41,000 and $40,000.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition and potential for the bear cross.

Resistance is set at $45,200




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

China expands tough measures against cryptocurrencies



Cryptocurrencies plummeted again after China expanded its crackdown on digital currencies. The People's Bank of China said all cryptocurrency-related transactions are now illegal in the country.

The move also pushed the stock value of crypto companies down, for example, Argo fell by 10%, Northern Data lost 2.5%, Coinbase Global and Robinhood Markets dropped 3.5%, MicroStrategy slipped 6.7% and Marathon Digital slumped by 8.1%.

Accordingly, Bitcoin traded under $ 41,000, while Ethereum plunged 8.9% to $ 2,864.



Markets were clearly pressured by China's tighter grip on sectors ranging from private education to digital gaming. The debt crisis at Evergrande made the situation worse.

Xiadong Bao, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild, said the government is channeling available liquidity into the real economy. Its overall goal is to lessen speculation in property and crypto, as well as more sustainable development.

In any case, the decision hammered many tokens, including EOS, Litecoin, and Dash. Adam Crisafulli from Vital Knowledge said it is now unideal to invest on Bitcoin because China's attitude towards cryptocurrencies is likely to be accepted by other countries.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Ethereum for September 27, 2021



Technical outlook:
Ethereum has been drifting in a range since dropping to $2,650 lows over the last week. The crypto remains in buy zone of the trend line support keeping overall bullish structure intact for now. Bulls are looking poised to push toward $450 and $4,300 levels in the next few trading sessions before finding resistance and turning lower.

Etherum has dropped between $4,000 and $2,650 in a corrective manner (3 waves). The crypto had found support at $2,650, just aead of fibonacci 0.382 extension as highlighted on the chart here. Probability remains for yet another drop toward $2,600 and $2,400 levels before turning higher again, though not mandatory.

The crypto is facing immediate resistance at $3,675, while interim support is seen around $2,650 level respectively. A break above $3675 from here would be further encouraging to bulls and open doors towards all-time highs. Traders might want to position accordingly.


Trading plan:
Potential rally to $4,300 against $2,500.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for September 27, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has been drifting sideways since printing a low around $40,000 mark. The crypto might drop one last time toward $37,000-38,000 mark before finding support and resuming higher. Having said that, a push above $45,500 from here will confirm a bottom is in place around $40,000 and Bitcoin is heading towards $48,000-49,000 and higher in the near term.

Bitcoin has completed a corrective drop between $53,000 and $40,000 as seen on the chart. Although fibonacci 0.618 extensions are pointing towards $37,500 levels before resuming its rally, it is not mandatory. Traders might prepare to build long positions and look to add more if prices decline toward $37,500 mark.

Bitcoin is facing immediate interim support around $40,000, while resistance is seen close to $48,500-49,000 levels respectively. A push through $48,500 will be constructive for bulls and open doors toward $65,000 going forward.


Trading plan:
Potential rally toward $65,000, against $35,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bulls continue to respect key support over the weekend.

Price has made no real progress over the weekend. Bitcoin price continues to move sideways between $40,000 and $45,000. Support at $39,500 is key and bulls do not want to see price break below this level. If this happens we get another sell signal.



Blue line- resistance

Green lines- Fibonacci retracements

Bitcoin has so far retraced 61.8% of the last leg down from $49,000 to $39,500 area. Price is below the blue downward sloping resistance trend line and as long as this is the case, price will remain vulnerable to more downside. Bulls need to break above $45,500 to get the first sign of strength. However the important bullish signal will come if and when price recaptures $50,000. If until then price breaks below $39,500, traders should be cautious as Bitcoin will be vulnerable to a move towards $35,500 and $30,000.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Learn and analyze: what on-chain metrics and bitcoin technical analysis mean during consolidation phase

The previous week bitcoin was in limbo and was on the verge of breaking down a significant support zone at $40,000. However, eventually the price managed to bounce off to the safe positions and bitcoin started the consolidation process. Notably, fluctuations in the narrow range of $43,000-$45,000 are accompanied by significant changes in on-chain indicators and horizontal charts of the cryptocurrency. Therefore, during periods of price consolidation, it is crucial to monitor changes in key BTC metrics to determine a further price movement.

*Learn and analyze

Technical indicators are instrumental metrics that allow you to perform a technical analysis of financial instruments over a certain timeframe. An important tool in determining the current market trend and an individual asset, as well as allowing you to determine the direction, strength and important areas of cryptocurrencies (financial instruments).

On-chain activity - actions of cryptocurrency market players, who independently dispose of their crypto-assets, due to which the record goes directly to the main blockchain. This statistic includes both private investors and large companies.

Price consolidation is a period of time when a certain cryptocurrency is within a narrow horizontal price channel. This process usually indicates price stabilization or weakness of market participants (buyers and sellers).

According to the hourly chart, bitcoin is within the narrow horizontal range of $42,700-$44,200 and has been moving along it since the rebound from $40,000. With the coin's technical indicators pointing to a sideways movement it is also a sign of price stabilization or weak market players. The RSI and stochastic are moving around the 50 level, signaling a timid attempt to move up towards 60. On the one hand, it is a signal for growth. However, on the other hand, it indicates weak buyers, who are unable to provide the necessary momentum.



On the 4-hour chart, the situation is similar. The cryptocurrency price is moving in a horizontal channel and the bulls and bears are engaged in a tug-of-war, which only stabilizes the price due to the weakness of both. Moreover, the main cryptocurrency technical indicators continue to recover after the price has spiked to $44,000. The MACD indicator is moving in the red zone, but it will soon cross the zero mark, while the stochastic is close to forming a bullish cross. At the same time, RSI is moving along the 55 mark, which suggests price stabilization and sluggish investor activity.



The daily chart shows a bullish candlestick that bitcoin formed at yesterday's close. This is a bullish signal and may indicate a further upside movement and bitcoin may try to consolidate above $44,500. On the daily chart, the price consolidation trend is best seen: all three major cryptocurrency indicators are in a sideways movement. At the same time, no prerequisites for successful development of bullish signals on stochastics are visible, which also indicates a weak market.



However, to have a more definite picture of a further price movement and investor sentiment, we should turn to bitcoin's on-chain metrics. First of all, it is important to note an upward trend on Daily Active Addresses charts during the last week. However, activity has fallen significantly over the past few days, while the price has been rising. This means that a divergence between the number of unique addresses and the market value of bitcoin has formed. In order to judge the possible consequences of this divergence, it is necessary to continue to monitor its development. If the dynamics are not confirmed, it may be a sign of a local whale activity.



Much more attention should be turned to the MVRV on-chain metric, which displays the current investment position of market players. During the last week the indicator considerably decreased from 15% to 6%. It confirms the fact that many market players moved or sold BTC coins at a loss. At 11:30 am, the onchain metric had crossed the support line at 6.57%, but stopped declining. If the indicator continues its downward movement, overcoming the 3% boundary will be an important signal for the market about a possible change of trend and the beginning of a bearish cycle. However, putting aside pessimistic forecasts, we note that the indicator's current level suggests that part of market players sold their available coins. Taking it into account, it is likely that bitcoin's price consolidation period may continue until market players satisfy all demand. In order to track these dynamics, you should monitor the on-chain metrics of stablecoin supply and the volume of coins available from 10,000 BTC.



*Learn and analyze.

Daily Active Addresses - an onchain indicator that displays a number of unique addresses used by the bitcoin network during a certain period of time.

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator - the indicator shows the ratio of market value to realized value of a particular cryptocurrency. This metric provides a more objective view of a coin's current value and market period. The metric also displays the results of moving coins: if the value is below 0, then players moved coins at a loss, and if it is above 0, then investors made a profit from transactions with coins.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Indonesian government will not follow in the footsteps of China, which has banned all cryptocurrency transactions, emphasized the country's trade minister, Muhammad Luthfi, in comments to local media. The official added, however, that the government is considering how to make them less prone to being used in illegal financial activities.

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are currently considered assets and commodities in Indonesia. Their legal treatment allows Southeast Asian residents to trade digital coins, but their use as legal tender is not allowed.

This week, the Central Bank of China stated that cryptocurrency transactions are illegal, alluding to previously imposed restrictions. All related financial activities, including trading cryptocurrencies, selling tokens, and trading virtual currency derivatives are also prohibited.

Indonesian cryptocurrency trading has been booming for the past year and a half, according to reports. Transactions on 13 domestic exchanges authorized by the Futures Supervisory Board increased by 40% in the first five months of 2021.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level again this weekend, but still the bears were unable to break higher. The level of $3,159 capped the bounce from $2,866 and the market reversed. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,977 and $3,052. The momentum remains positive, but not that strong anymore, so bulls will have to gather more steam in order to move towards the next target seen at 61% Fibonacci retracement at $3,281.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,157
WR2 - $3,675
WR1 - $3,440

Weekly Pivot - $3,036
WS1 - $2,728
WS2 - $2,316
WS3 - $2,003


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The average portfolio size on the Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets increased from $ 577.65 to $ 2069.16 in fiscal 2021, signaling a portfolio growth of 258.2%, according to stock market data compiled by Statista based on a recent BTC Markets survey.

Survey data shows that the average female and male wallet sizes over the 20-21 fiscal period on BTC Markets were $ 1,924.30 and $ 2,214.03, respectively. However, in 2020, the average portfolio size of Australian female investors was slightly above male investors.

Trading data on the stock market also showed a pattern of increasing investment demand from older investors. Based on data provided by BTC Market on the average initial investment in Australia, investors over the age of 65 have invested around $ 3,158.03, which is the highest value of any demographic group.

After a gradual decline across age groups, the youngest cryptocurrency investors, aged 18-24, tend to make relatively small investments, averaging $ 792.96. While older Australian cryptocurrency investors outweigh the new generation in initial investments, younger investors are relatively more active in terms of their day-to-day transactions.

In line with the above findings, a September report from the Finder financial comparison site shows that one in six Australians owns cryptocurrencies. The report suggests that, like many other users in the developed industrialized nations, Australians are increasingly viewing cryptocurrencies as a new asset class.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has been moving up and down without any particular direction over the weekend. The local low was made at the level of $40,741 and the bulls keep trying to continue to move higher. Despite their efforts, no new high was made over the weekend and the local high was seen at $44,316. The market participants are waiting for a clear breakout above the last high located at $45,115 or below the recent low seen at $39,536. The momentum remains neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,572
WR2 - $51,601
WR1 - $47,548

Weekly Pivot - $43,366
WS1 - $39,311
WS2 - $35,303
WS3 - $31,312


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Major players prevent Bitcoin from falling below $ 40,746



During the last few weeks, Bitcoin has plummeted several times. It all started in El Salvador, where the government's decision to make bitcoin a legal means of payment caused mass riots and protests. This ended (for now) with a complete ban of China on any cryptocurrency operations on its territory. From our point of view, only what should happen is happening. Firstly, Bitcoin is still on the path of its formation. If we assume that it will not disappear over time (and it is almost impossible to imagine such an option now), then at the moment the cryptocurrency is only about 10-15 years old. Such a period is very small in the context of the formation of a new financial instrument. Therefore, Bitcoin can grow up to $ 100,000 per coin, and up to $ 250,000 per coin in the future. This is indeed the case. However, the main digital asset cannot grow constantly, so there should also be pullbacks and declines. Secondly, as already mentioned, Bitcoin's "bullish" trend can be completed near the highs of the current year, and even the growth to the level of $ 52,000 is not evidence of the opposite. Thus, we believe that the correction scenario remains a higher priority. In the near future, Bitcoin may rush to the level of $ 31,100 again.

It is also worth noting that one should not trade cryptocurrency without technical signals. For example, Bitcoin currently remains in a narrowing triangle, which is formed by the support level of $ 40,746 (from which the price rebounded 4 times already in the last week), as well as a downward trend line. Therefore, a lot will depend on which of these lines traders will be able to break through. So far, it can be concluded that pending buy orders are set around the level of $ 40,746. As soon as the price drops to this level, the demand for Bitcoin rises, and the cryptocurrency rebounds upward. However, will major players ultimately be able to keep the cryptocurrency above this level?

The fact that most of the forecasts for Bitcoin's future value depend on its recent movements should also be noted. For example, when Bitcoin rises, a bunch of predictions immediately appear, indicating that the cryptocurrency has headed for $ 75,000 or $ 100,000. As soon as Bitcoin starts to plunge, many experts immediately begin to predict its further decline. For example, Anzhey Kovalchuk, TomiEx's chief strategist for cryptocurrencies, believes that Bitcoin will soon fall to $ 30,000 amid a complete ban on cryptocurrencies in China. According to Kovalchuk, this is not a speculative drawdown of the instrument, which the market will quickly and easily buy out. However, in reality, it shows that the market is buying a drawdown near the level of $ 40,746 and has done this at least four times over the past week. In this case, we are really waiting for the breakdown of one of the sides of the triangle.



There is still a downward trend in the four-hour timeframe. Bitcoin declined to the support level of $ 40,746 four times and rebounded each time. Along with this, the price also failed to consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud and above the trend line. Therefore, it cannot be said that the bears are currently weak. If the trend line is broken, it is suggested to buy Bitcoin with the targets of $ 46,600 and $ 51,350. But if the level of $ 40,746 is broken, then the decline may continue to the level of $ 31,100.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021