Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

The fight against cryptocurrencies "in a presidential way"

Today, it became known that the White House is preparing to support an active hidden confrontation in the fight against cryptocurrency enthusiasts. And if yesterday fans of digital assets declared that they were ready to run for US senator, today a kind of "response" came from US President Joe Biden. As it became known, he plans to appoint a law professor who criticized cryptocurrencies and advocated for the government to play a much greater role in the banking sector to a post in one of the leading regulatory bodies of Wall Street. We are talking about Saule Omarova, who recently said that she wants to end the kind of banking in which everyone knows him. Now she will be involved as the head of the Currency Control Department. This OCC management controls the country's largest creditors, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc.



According to experts, the choice of Omarova, who teaches at the Cornell University Law School, is a serious blow for Wall Street since she is expected to have stricter supervision and stricter rules. However, before her appointment, it is still necessary for the Biden administration to support Omarova's new agenda. If she sticks to some of her most radical positions, such as transferring consumer banking services to the Federal Reserve System from private institutions, it is not a fact that she will stay in this post for a long time.

But since we are talking about cryptocurrencies, I would like to know what does not suit the next American official. Saule Omarova recently stated that the rapid growth of cryptocurrencies "benefits mainly the already existing non-functional financial system." Omarova claims that digital tokens threaten to destabilize the economy and can be abused by private companies to the detriment of state guarantees. The next opponent of the cryptocurrency industry will probably work in tandem with the SEC, the Ministry of Finance, and the Fed to take this area under control as quickly as possible and quickly regulate it. Time will tell whether all this will benefit the crypto-currency market. So far, there is no reaction to such appointments. There is not even a market reaction to the statements of the already opponent of the cryptocurrency market, the head of the SEC, Grispen.

It is worth noting that the Biden administration has been trying to fill the vacancy in the OCC for a long time. Earlier this year, the White House was forced to abandon previous candidates, including a former Treasury official who was in opposition from progressive Democrats. If approved by the Senate, Omarova will become the first woman to be a full-fledged leader of the OCC.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, a return to the resistance of $ 44,900 is necessary to stabilize the situation. After fixing above this range, it will be possible to talk about recovery back to the level of $ 47,900 and an update of $ 50,800. If buyers fail to offer anything around $ 44,900, and the 200-day moving average passes a little higher, then most likely the pressure on bitcoin will return, and we will see a repeated attempt by sellers of the world's first cryptocurrency to gain a foothold below the support around $ 42,000. Its breakthrough will quickly push BTC to a minimum of $ 39,600, which will only worsen the situation and maintain the downward trend in the trading instrument.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Nearly bullish engulfing. $40,000 is the new $10,000

The optimistic assumptions about the redemption of the fall in yesterday's forecast came true. Is this mastery of forecasting or analytical intuition? Probably oversight and coincidence, as the fundamental background was favorable for risky assets on Wednesday.

On the daily chart of the main cryptocurrency, the breakdown of the support zone 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 turned out to be false. Yesterday's candlestick fell short of the bullish engulfing, but today's candlestick helped in buying out the fall. I think it is quite possible to regard this as a bullish signal.

But candlestick patterns are not always a self-sufficient signal of a global reversal. So let's take a look at the levels.

Now the price from below is approaching the rather important horizontal 44,807.24, marked with a red dotted line. If this level manages to pass from the bottom up and consolidate above it, it will be possible to consider that corrective fears are over. In this case, the closest target for recovery will be the area around $48,000 per bitcoin. In a bullish scenario, we should expect BTC/USD to return to $52,000 per coin and even try to update this recent high.

But an alternative scenario is also possible if the horizontal of 44,807.24 is confirmed as resistance. In this case, Bitcoin may return to the support zone 40,977.38 - 41,980.24.

This is a local forecast. But the long-term looks still quite optimistic.

Bloomberg chief commodities expert Mike McGlone expressed the opinion that Bitcoin will be among the main beneficiaries of the future.

In his tweet, McGlone wrote that although the US stock market is in decline, he considers bitcoin, gold, and US Treasury bonds as the top long-term beneficiaries.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg's chief commodity expert tweeted that he did not realize how many investors are transferring their funds from gold to Bitcoin and Ethereum. He recalled that this year gold fell by about 7%, while bitcoin rose by almost 70%. Ether has added almost 400% since the beginning of the year.

In addition, McGlone believes that the $40,000 level for the main cryptocurrency is becoming the "new $10,000" - an area around which the flagship cryptocurrency builds a base and does not fall below it during periods of correction.

Despite a correction that appears to be coming to an end, McGlone believes Bitcoin could still rise to $100,000 by the end of the year.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Has XRPUSD finished its pull back?

XRPUSD made a low $0.85 area. As was expected a few days ago when price was above $1, price has pulled back and declined towards our $0.86 target. Now price has already retraced 61.8% of the entire rise from $0.51 to $1.41.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracements

Red lines - Fibonacci extension targets

XRPUSD is bouncing off the 61.8% retracement level. The entire decline from $1.41 could very well be over, however confirmation for this will come at much higher level. If price continues to hold above $0.85, we could see the next leg higher towards $1.75. Resistance is at $1.12, $1.24 and $1.41. Bulls need to start making higher highs and higher lows and eventually break these resistance levels. If that is ok, we should see $1.75 next. If price fails to hold support and recent lows at $0.85, we should then see a deeper pull back towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bounces powerfully and recovers above $43k: Is local bottom reached?

Over the past week, bitcoin has fluctuated in a narrow range, which gradually shifted towards the lower border of a wide range of fluctuations. As a result, this week the coin successfully overcame the support zone at $45k and continued its downward movement. On Wednesday, September 22, BTC fell below the $40k mark for the first time since August, which triggered a local sell-off. At the same time, the coin quickly managed to bounce into a safe area and demonstrate several positive signals.

The first and most important signal is the appearance of a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart of the cryptocurrency. If the coin continues to recover in the short term, then the formation of this sign on the charts may indicate that the local, but final, bottom of the market has been reached. If this thesis is confirmed, we can expect an upward wave to strengthen and move to the key resistance areas at $48k and $50k. Another local positive is a successful test of the strength of the support zone at $40.8k. Confirmation of the thesis about the formation of a local market bottom will mean a significant strengthening of this zone as a key support after $42.8k. As of 12:00 UTC, the next resistance zone will be the round mark of $44k, which acted as support in the upward movement.



Over the past day, the asset has risen by 4% and is quoted near $44k, at $43.8k. It is worth noting that despite the positive dynamics of price movement in the two-hour period, trading volumes still remain at an average level. In the case of a successful consolidation above $44k, there is every reason to believe that this figure will increase as the retail audience returns. At the same time, the local positive is diluted by the downward dynamics of the super trend line and fluctuations in the major technical indicators.

On the hourly chart, bitcoin encountered a powerful resistance and made a breakdown of the local ascending wedge. The RSI indicator and stochastic began a powerful downward movement to the 40 marks, and the MACD formed a bullish crossover, but failed to realize the momentum and began to decline. All this indicates a strong selling pressure in this area and the $44k mark has become an important boundary for profit-taking and selling off during the recent fall.



On the four-hour chart, bitcoin also broke through a local ascending wedge, but there is a chance to go up. Technical indicators express the caution of the market, and the reluctance to push the price higher. Despite this, there is a clear trend for a temporary period of consolidation: the RSI moves along the 50 zone, and the stochastic begins to decline from the overbought zone. At the same time, the MACD shows a clear bullish signal for growth and forms a bearish divergence, which may indicate further growth. The four-hour chart shows the recovery of the major indicators after a powerful breakthrough into the safe zone. If this pattern develops on the daily chart, the asset will break through $44k soon.




On the daily chart, the situation around the BTC price has clear prerequisites for another decline. The MACD indicator is below the zero mark and moves in the red zone. At the same time, the RSI and stochastic indicate a sideways movement, which may indicate a period of accumulation. The price can go in any direction, but the MACD clearly signals a decline, so most likely the price will retest the local support zone at $43k, after which it will continue to gain momentum. In the event of a bearish breakdown of this milestone, the nearest support line will be $42.8k.



There is a positive signal on the bitcoin charts for the completion of the correction and further upward exit. However, right now the buyer's market looks very weak: retail traders have not returned, and the whales have taken a wait-and-see position. Most likely, in the next few days, BTC will continue to fluctuate in the $43k-$45k zone and will end the week with an exit to the next range of $45k-$48k.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 23,.2021 - Bearish divergences in the background

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upside towards $44,400 but I see potential for the downside movement.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities with the potential downside targets at $42,000 and $40,400 due to bearish divergences this morning and the no buying pressure.

Bearish divergences are in the background, which is sign that selling looks preferable.

Key resistance is set at $44,500




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for September 23, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin might have found some support around $39,500 mark early this week, as it has bounced off towards $43,500 levels at the time of writing. The crypto could drop one last time below $39,500 but it is not mandatory. Bulls are now looking poised to push higher towards $48,000-500 zone to take out the initial resistance and also confirm they are back in control.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $43,700 levels and is expected to rally through $48,000-49,000 zone soon. Immediate price resistnce is at $48,000-49,000, followed by $53,000, while support comes in around $39,500, followed by $37,500 zone respectively. Most traders might prepare to initiate fresh long positions with risk around $35,000 mark.

Bitcoin might still have enough room to print one mire high above $65,000 mark, going forward. The crypto has found support just ahead of $37,000 as discussed yesterday. Bulls remain poised to push higher from here but be prepared for another test around $39,500.


Trading plan:
Potential rally towards $65,000 against $35,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

President of Coinbase calls for smart regulation



Coinbase Global Inc, which is a digital currency exchange operator, has been recently under scrutiny from US regulators, speaking remotely on Wednesday at New York's Messari Mainnet conference calling on lawmakers to ensure a "level playing field" for all financial companies.

Emilie Choi, president of Coinbase Global Inc, said: "The company seeks transparency, clarity, and fairness from regulatory authorities. We just want to make sure that there is a level playing field for crypto firms and other financial service providers. We really want to get to this place where there are only rules and norms of common sense."

During the previous week, Coinbase announced plans to launch a product that will pay users interest for lending their tokens, as the firm succumbed to pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The correlation between the growth of Bitcoin and Coinbase since April is shown below:



The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), chaired by Gary Gensler, has taken a tough stance on cryptocurrency products and the platforms on which they trade. The planned Coinbase Land program, which would allow users to earn 4% by providing their tokens, has become a flashpoint in the growing tension between the regulator and the growing crypto industry.

Coinbase operates the largest American platform for trading digital assets. In April, the company's valuation rose to $ 89 billion when it became public due to a direct listing on the Nasdaq exchange.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 23, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
Mining company BIT Mining plans to invest $ 12.14 million in developing an 85-megawatt cryptocurrency mining center in Ohio.

BIT Mining, which owns all of the mining operations operating under BTC.com, has entered into a joint venture agreement with Viking Data Centers to establish a Bitcoin mining facility.

Under the agreement, BIT Mining will pay Viking Data $ 10.84 million in cash, and the remaining amount will be settled in cash or company shares. Following an investment in Viking Data and a subsequent agreement, BIT Mining will own 51% of Ohio's new Bitcoin mine.

Dubbed the "Ohio Mining Site", the planned 85 MW facility will be developed in three phases. In the first stage of development of the facility, by October 15, 2021, the capacity will reach 11 MW, and in the second and third stage, it will increase by 39 and 35 MW, respectively.

Ohio Mining Site is one of many Bitcoin mines to be launched in the United States due to the constant migration of mining capacity to various locations in North America.

After cryptocurrency mining was suppressed in China, miners were forced to move their equipment overseas. North American mining companies seized the opportunity to expand their market share, and large companies purchased additional platforms for their facilities.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has confirmed the termination of the ABC corrective cycle at the level of $2,644 after the successful breakout above $3,122. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,185, $3,274 and $3,337. The bounce is impulsive and dynamic in nature, so there is a possibility of a new up trend to unfold soon. The market conditions are bouncing from the oversold levels, so the bulls might hit the level of $3,159 today (50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,190
WR2 - $3,923
WR1 - $3,621

Weekly Pivot - $3,349
WS1 - $3,067
WS2 - $2,787
WS3 - $2,498


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 23, 2021



Crypto Industry news:
As the hash rate of the Bitcoin network continues to increase and miners accumulate more and more power, the largest cryptocurrency becomes more and more difficult to mine.

The Bitcoin network released another correction of the mining difficulty, rising by 3.2% and reaching a difficulty level of almost 19 trillion, according to data from the Blockchain explorer BTC.com.

The latest correction represents the fifth consecutive increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty since mid-July, since the difficulty rate has risen by more than 31% from around 13.7 trillion - the lowest difficulty level since June 2020.

The new positive corrections followed a series of four consecutive falls in difficulties that began with a nearly 16% decline in late May amid environmental and social concerns about Bitcoin, as well as the suppression of cryptocurrency mining in China.

Despite posting five positive corrections in a row, the current Bitcoin mining difficulty rate is still far from its all-time high of more than 25 trillion recorded in May 2021.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty is a measure designed to reflect how difficult it is to mine a block of Bitcoins. Higher difficulty requires more processing power to verify transactions and dig new coins.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing low at the level of $39,526 and it looks like the ABC corrective cycle had been completed. The next technical support is seen at $38,261. Any violation of the level of $38,261 would likely open the road to lower levels and the downwards momentum might increase then even more. In the meantime, bulls had violated the technical resistance located at $43,607 and are heading towards the level of $44,143, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,433
WR2 - $52,068
WR1 - $51,114

Weekly Pivot - $46,800
WS1 - $44,786
WS2 - $41,130
WS3 - $39,325


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin found support from the Fed



Bitcoin recovered quickly after the Fed held its meeting and announced its results. It can be recalled that the markets expected the Fed to announce the start of a cut in the stimulus program in September, but this did not happen. Jerome Powell clearly stated that the Fed is ready to wind down QE and this program will be fully completed in mid-2022, but the regulator will continue to buy bonds worth at least $ 120 billion a month in the next two months. Therefore, the US economy will receive money printed by the Fed for at least two more months, some of which will settle on the cryptocurrency market. Investors immediately cheered up, realizing that the Fed has not yet tightened monetary policy, and rushed to buy risky assets. Bitcoin quickly recovered to the level of $ 43,852, but the trend remains downward since there is a descending trend line. In this case, we are only talking about the current upward correction of the world's first cryptocurrency.

The news from the Fed is definitely positive for the entire cryptocurrency market. This can be confirmed by the fact that almost all major cryptocurrencies, and not just bitcoin, are rising after the meeting. But at the same time, it should be noted that Bitcoin's fundamental background remains quite weak. To simply put it, there is no particularly positive news for it now. The validity of the growth of quotes from $ 30,000 to $ 53,000 in the last few months has been repeatedly questioned. However, it should also be recognized that the market does not always need these very rationales in order to buy cryptocurrency. A rebound from the level of $ 43,852 could easily trigger another decline. But since we have a buy signal in the form of a price rebound from the level of $ 40,746, we are talking about the growth of the cryptocurrency.

What should be expected from Bitcoin in the future?

We still suggest that traders pay extra attention to technical analysis, namely to the support and resistance levels, which are greatly worked out by the cryptocurrency, and form the corresponding signals. For example, a rebound from the trend line may follow in the upcoming days, which will return the bears to the market. However, Bitcoin's consolidation above the trend line will return the cryptocurrency to the upward channel, despite the fact that the "bullish" trend is very much completed.

The time when the Fed begins to wind down the QE program, as well as what kind of "infrastructure bill" Joe Biden will take, which involves amendments to the Tax Code – transactions with cryptocurrencies will be taxed, and all transactions worth more than $ 10,000 will go through the Tax Administration, will be very important. The first event may come in November when the Fed holds its next meeting. The second can be expected earlier since the infrastructure plan has been considered by both chambers of Congress for quite a long time.



There is a clear downward trend in the four-hour time frame. Bitcoin fell to the support level of $ 40,746 and broke through it even twice, but eventually rebounded from it. However, it can be recalled that the level of $ 43 852 was also broken on the third attempt, so nothing prevents Bitcoin from returning to the level of $ 40 746 again to break through it also on the third attempt. As long as the price is below the trend line, the downward trend remains.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021