Cryptocurrency Analysis

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On-chain activity is growing, charts are encouraging: when will Bitcoin break through $50,000?

Bitcoin started a new trading week quite cheerfully. The cryptocurrency managed to bounce off the local support zone at the end of last week and start another growth stage. As of 10:00 UTC, the asset crossed the $47,000 mark, but faced a local resistance zone. Bitcoin will soon continue to consolidate and approach the sales area in the $48,000-$50,000 region. With this in mind, it is worth considering the likely scenarios for the movement of the cryptocurrency and its current opportunities to break through the round value of $50,000.

First of all, it should be noted that over the past day, the asset has risen in price by 2% due to the successful breakdown of $47,000. As of 10:00 UTC, the coin is facing strong pressure and is trying to consolidate above $47,100. A pullback will likely take place within the current trading day and the $47,000 mark should become a support zone so that the price drop does not worsen. Over the weekend, bitcoin was quoted within a narrow range of $45,000-$46,700, but at the end of the weekend, the market accumulated the necessary volumes and crossed the $47,000 mark. The breakthrough of the difficult mark became possible thanks to the recent correction, which became an opportunity for new players to buy and enter the asset. This had a great effect on the cryptocurrency's on-chain performance, which showed impulse growth.

The on-chain indicator Daily Active Addresses in the bitcoin network showed a powerful leap from 809,000 to 1.2 million. At the same time, Active Addresses (24h) also shows an upward trend, which indicates an increase in interest. Also, the wave of growth from July 20 is characterized by low on-chain indicators due to the concentration of most of the bitcoins in the hands of a narrow circle of large holders. This is also evidenced by the statistics of transactions carried out in the BTC network. According to the latest analytical data, the number of large transactions in excess of $10 million is 50% of the current coin turnover. This gives the retail audience less room for price manipulation, thereby reducing their presence in the asset. However, overcoming difficult areas is also slow, and even a sharp surge in on-chain activity did not allow the coin to continue its upward movement to the main resistance zone.



The final pressure zone before the $50,000 breakout is concentrated in the area of $48,200-$49,900. A large number of sell options and stops are concentrated in this corridor since it was here that the downward movement of bitcoin began two months ago. Close to this area, the cryptocurrency began to give signals of weakness last week. This is due to the increased pressure on buyers, which sellers took advantage of and managed to push the price up to $45,000, where the rebound took place. It is likely that a similar scenario will occur this week, but also within an upward trend. However, the positive dynamics of on-chain indicators do not coincide with the signals of bitcoin technical indicators. On the four-hour chart of the cryptocurrency, there are prerequisites for a breakdown of $47,000 and a subsequent retest. This is indicated by the weakness of the stochastic and the dynamics towards the sideways trend on the MACD. In this case, the main prospect for bitcoin today will be the completion of the trading day above the $47,100 zone.



At the same time, the unambiguous upward dynamics disappeared on the daily chart. The Stochastic Oscillator began to show signals for a downward movement, but the RSI did not go below the overbought zone. In the long term, this can negatively affect the retail audience and complicate the passage of the $48,000-$50,000 zone. However, it is obvious that BTC has launched another wave of growth and $48,000 will be the next strong resistance level. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency will be locally adjusted and, if it does not go beyond the local support zones, by the end of this week, bitcoin has every chance to enter the first assault on $50,000.



It is highly unlikely that bitcoin will stumble on its way to $50,000, but that possibility is worth considering. With an unfortunate coincidence of circumstances, negative news background, the correction of the coin may intensify and go beyond local support areas. In this case, the nearest buy shelf will be $47,000 and $46,500. The breakdown of which opens the way to the middle of the current growth range, to the level of $45,500-$45,000. An upward reversal is highly probable here since there is a zone of longs further ahead, where a rebound for $45,000 is very likely. However, this scenario may take place within the framework of an upward trend. It is worth talking about a change in the vector of movement only in the event of a breakdown of the $37,000 zone, however, the current market sentiment very accurately indicates the continuation of the upward movement of bitcoin and the entire market.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
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