Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

SpaceX also owns Bitcoin!



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency are still very low relative to their absolute highs. The fundamental background for bitcoin remains very negative. However, Elon Musk has become more active recently, who changes his opinion about bitcoin more often. Recall that at the beginning of the year, his company Tesla announced investments in bitcoin for $ 1.5 billion. Then Tesla added the ability to buy its electric cars for bitcoins. And a month later, they canceled this opportunity, and Elon Musk began to criticize the main cryptocurrency. According to him, bitcoin is too non-energy efficient. A huge number of coins are mined using non-renewable energy sources. In general, bitcoin is too harmful to the environment. However, this week, Musk said that his Tesla is again considering paying for electric cars for cryptocurrency, and it became known yesterday that his company, SpaceX, also invested in cryptocurrency. However, the head of Tesla did not say anything about the size of the investment. Thus, the markets once again found themselves in a difficult situation.

On the one hand, Musk has been accused of market manipulation many times. At the same time, both stock and cryptocurrency. He also changes his rhetoric about bitcoin too often. On the other hand, if such an influential business person says that his two main companies own cryptocurrency, like himself, then he expects its growth and believes that digital assets are the future. Thus, bitcoin began to grow again, having received quite unexpected support. Another question is, how long will this growth continue? Recall that the vast majority of experts believe that in the coming months and until the end of 2021, "digital gold" will become cheaper. However, we should pay tribute to the fact that Musk once again managed to force investors and traders to buy "bitcoin."

As for us, we continue to believe that bitcoin will continue to decline further. There is too much talking against it now. China's actions against miners will be "exposed" to the cryptocurrency market until the end of the year, until all repressed businessmen place and launch their equipment in other countries. The market is also waiting for news from the United States, where the authorities also want to tighten the cryptocurrency segment's regulation seriously. And in any case, it is unlikely that bitcoin will add $ 10,000 to one statement by Musk about SpaceX investments. Most likely, in the coming days, the growth will be replaced by a new fall. However, no one forbids Musk to distribute comments at least every day.



In technical terms, bitcoin worked out the level of $ 29,700 but failed to overcome it. Thus, a round of upward correction has now begun, which may end in the near future. There is practically no fundamental support for bitcoin now, so we expect a resumption of the fall in quotations and the return of BTC to the level of $ 29,700. We also hope that this level will be overcome, and the main cryptocurrency will continue its decline to the level of $ 24,000.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Signs of the end of the bear market

The situation on the main cryptocurrency became a little clearer this week when the price of BTC/USD reversed after a false breakout of the support at 31,082.82 (marked with a red dotted line on the chart).

But technically, there is still some uncertainty, since it is not yet clear whether this is a local correction before an even bigger drop or the beginning of a recovery in the area of $40,000 per coin.

Analysts and influencers also disagree about whether the cryptocurrency is currently in a bull or bear market. And this is not surprising, since even from a technical point of view, trading what you see, and not what you know, it is difficult to give an unambiguous answer.

For example, analysts at JPMorgan point out that there are currently no signs that the bear market for bitcoin will end anytime soon. The bank's analysts have yet to find signs that the worst is over for the main cryptocurrency.

They see the increase in bitcoin's dominance ratio above 50% as a sign of the end of the bear market. Now it is about 46%. And at the beginning of the year, it reached a maximum near 70%.

The situation with institutional demand also does not please JPMorgan. The fact that some companies, such as Ark Invest and MicroStrategy, have been buying bitcoins in recent weeks, the bank considers insufficient.

"These institutional deals are not encouraging at all. They do not reflect new participants, but rather existing investors interested in maintaining bitcoin prices," JPMorgan noted.

Nevertheless, ARK Invest deals and statements from bitcoin bulls Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood allowed bitcoin to stay above $30,000 per coin this week.

But a CryptoQuant analyst believes that bitcoin remains in a bullish cycle, despite the recent 50% correction.

He made this conclusion by analyzing MVRV (the ratio of market value to realized value). CryptoQuant data shows that since 2013, the periods when bitcoin was falling, turned out to be the best time to buy before its rally.

The analyst agency has previously stated that the bear market for bitcoin has not occurred according to data based on MVRV. The ratio of market value to realized value shows the ratio of the market price of an asset to its realized capitalization.

Despite the conflicting views of influencers, ordinary traders who make money on speculation, in my opinion, should trust technical analysis. While the scenario of growth to the level of 34,708.27 remains in force. And there we will probably get more information about whether bitcoin will follow the triangle scenario or continue to recover sideways in the area of $40,000 per coin.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ethereum, ETH/USD, for July 23 - 26, 2021: Buy above $2,000



Ethereum, ETH / USD, recovered sharply after having formed a triple bottom in the zone of 1,710. The price has increased by more than 18. Another catalyst that gave the bullish momentum to ETH / USD was Elon Musk's announcement that Tesla would likely resume the Bitcoin payment option for its electric cars.

Now Ethereum has recovered to the psychological level of $ 2,000 and is located above the EMA of 200 in 4-hour charts. This could be good news as the price can consolidate above this level in the short term and could reach the zone of 2,500.

On the other hand, if Ethereum makes a correction, a drop is expected to the support zone of the SMA of 21 around 1,875. This level will give a new bullish impetus to reach the resistance and target of the market at $2,500.

In the chart, we can see that ETH has sharply broken a downtrend channel. Now it is holding above it, which could also be a sign of bullish strength in the short term.

As long as ETH / USD remains above the 21 SMA, there is a strong probability that the price will continue to rise, targeting 8/8 murray around 2500. Below 1,875, we should avoid buying as a consequence of market fear and uncertainty could push the price down towards the 1,710 and 1,500 support.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 23 - 26, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,291
Resistance (2) 2,173
Resistance (1) 2,110

Support (1) 1,946
Support (2) 1,882
Support (3) 1,763




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elon Musk provided support to Bitcoin, but only temporarily



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency failed to overcome the level of $29,700, which is why there was a rollback upward. The entire crypto community believes that bitcoin was supported by Elon Musk, who said that Tesla may return to selling cars using bitcoins in the future. However, in recent months, the cryptocurrency market has reacted very poorly to the statements of Elon Musk. It should also be noted that Musk has been repeatedly accused of manipulating the markets. Tesla may soon pay a $2 billion fine for buying out another company of Musk, but at the same time unprofitable. Therefore, many believe that Musk put pressure on the Tesla board of directors and simply bought out his own company so that it would not go bankrupt. Anyway, this is not the first "trick" from Elon, so investors and traders are just used to being wary of any statements by Musk. What is the point of the fact that Tesla can reintroduce the ability to buy electric cars for bitcoin, if it can easily and simply cancel its own decision in a month? Thus, we believe that the words of the CEO of Tesla could not have any impact on the market. It is likely that the cryptocurrency just bounced off the important level of $29,700. Take a look at the illustration! This level was just perfectly worked out. In general, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains extremely weak.

The absolute majority of experts believe that bitcoin is almost guaranteed to fall again. At this time, large managers and investors predict the figures $10,000, $15,000 and $24,000 as targets. Also, most experts believe that already in 2022, bitcoin can begin to form another bullish trend, since it is by the beginning of 2022 that all the expelled Chinese miners are expected to find new sites for their equipment and launch it. Of course, the return of miners to business does not mean that bitcoin will immediately return to the highs of 2021. Nevertheless, a new bullish trend may indeed begin to form. However, bear in mind that a portion of the negative for bitcoin can be thrown up by the states, where recently rumors about tightening the regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere have also been actively exaggerated. Thus, in the coming months, bitcoin may receive one more disappointing setback. Accordingly, the short-term forecast is a further decline, and the long-term forecast is a systematic recovery.



Technically, bitcoin has worked out the level of $29,700. However, it failed to overcome the said level. Thus, a round of upward correction has now begun, which can end very quickly, near the critical line, where the price has already rested at this time. There is no fundamental support for bitcoin right now, so we expect a resumption of the fall in quotes and the return of BTC to the level of $29,700. We also expect that this level will be overcome, and the main cryptocurrency will continue its decline to the level of $24,000, at least.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast has worked out thanks to Elon Musk

In the wake of yesterday's review, let's take a look at the bitcoin chart. Yes, the support level at 31,082.82, marked with a red dotted line, held out after a false breakout, which ended up as a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Such a technical picture creates preconditions for the growth of BTC/USD, but the answer to the question "Side or triangle?" is still to be found. So, the closest target for the bitcoin price recovery is the level of 34,708.27. The sloping resistance of the supposed descending triangle also passes there. The implementation of a bullish or bearish scenario for the main cryptocurrency largely depends on how the price behaves relative to this border.

There are now two technical options for the development of events that are most likely. The first is a rise to the level of 34,708.27, confirming it as resistance, as well as the upper border of the triangle. Against this background, BTC/USD may return to support at 31,082.82, marked with a red dotted line, and form an exit from the downward pattern. In this scenario, the likelihood of falling into the $20,000 area increases.

The second scenario is an increase to the level of 34,708.27, a breakout and consolidation above it. Then bitcoin will have a chance to rise to the upper border of the sideway near $40,000 per coin.

What about Elon? Did he help bitcoin? Maybe. Crypto community members were expecting support from him yesterday at the B Word conference. And they got it. Is this the only growth factor for BTC/USD? Hardly, rather a pleasant coincidence.

On Wednesday, Elon Musk, Cathie Wood, and Jack Dorsey talked about cryptocurrency. The virtual conference was hosted by the Crypto Council for Innovation. The event was held to "demystify and destigmatize" the cryptocurrency.

Musk's statements about bitcoin were perhaps the most anticipated after Tesla previously pulled out of public support for the cryptocurrency due to unsustainable mining. His comments at the event were mostly positive: "Overall, I support bitcoin, Tesla owns bitcoin, SpaceX owns bitcoin, and I do personally own bitcoin, a bit of Ethereum, and Dogecoin, of course."

In this case, Elon Musk made his views clear, clearly stating his personal support for bitcoin and mentioned that while not dumping them: "If the price of bitcoin falls, I will lose money. I definitely do not believe in getting the price high and selling, or anything like that. I would like bitcoin to succeed."

As a result, bitcoin rose slightly, returned the losses of the previous day, and now maintains a power reserve of at least $34,000 - $35,000 per coin. And now it is technically a good entry point for a cautious buy, the scenario of which was discussed earlier.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin, BTC/USD, for July 22 - 23, 2021: Buy above $30,824



The price of Bitcoin, BTC / USD, is showing a slight upward force after having found support at the psychological level of 30,000. Now the odds are that there will be a bullish movement in the short term towards the resistance zone of 4/8 of murray, about $37,500.

The extremely oversold level of murray in -1/8 ($29,687) has given good support to BTC. On June 22, Bitcoin made a technical bounce at this level. Then on July 20, it made a rebound again at this level, thus forming a double bottom reversal pattern with a short-term bullish outlook.

The price of Bitcoin increased approximately 12% from the low on July 20 at $29,300. Given that it is now holding above the 21 SMA, the upward movement is likely to continue to the zone of 200 EMA ($33.145) and up to 2/8 of murray at the $34,375.

Therefore, a technical rebound in the area of $30,824 (SMA 21) will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at the top of the bearish channel and the EMA of 200. To break this level sharply, it is expected to reach the level of 4/8 murray.

The technical reading of the eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal in the short term, so it could support our bullish outlook on Bitcoin. In case ofa a break below the psychological level of $30,000, we should avoid buying.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 22 - 23, 2021
Resistance (3) 34,619
Resistance (2) 33,152
Resistance (1) 32,345

Support (1) 30,866
Support (2) 29,809
Support (3) 27,929




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP approaches short-term resistance.

In our last analysis we noted the bearish short-term channel XRPUSD is currently in. Trend remains to be bearish despite the recent bounce. Price continues to trade inside the bearish channel.



Red lines - bearish channel

XRPUSD is approaching the upper channel boundary resistance at $0.59-$0.60. This is an important short-term resistance level. Price remains in a bearish trend. Breaking above and out of the channel will be the first important bullish signal. However trend would only change if price were to break above $0.72.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC storms $32,000 but market remains bearish: Analysis of horizontal bitcoin charts and forecasts

On July 21, bitcoin ended on a positive note near the $31,700 mark. The cryptocurrency returned to the safe zone and formed a local corridor for fluctuations. On July 22, bitcoin began with the consolidation of the price for the future retest of the $32,000 mark. As of 11:00 UTC, the asset continues to fluctuate in a narrow range of $31,500 - $32,000. Despite the local positive in the market, bitcoin failed to immediately overcome important resistance levels. Soon, the market situation may stabilize, which will lead to the resumption of a slow downward movement.

The cryptocurrency managed to make a rebound on July 21, and the market positively perceived the momentum for growth. The sharp increase in the quotes of bitcoin is also associated with several factors. First of all, the level of asset volatility, which scared off retail traders in mid-June, reached a local minimum. This had a positive impact on the audience of the cryptocurrency, and traders trusted the temporary flash of the coin. In addition, yesterday's market rebound coincided with an increase in the price of other speculative assets, such as oil. The movement of the stock and commodity markets for some time coincided with the cryptocurrency market, thanks to which there was a rebound. However, the joint movement of several markets was a local movement, and therefore the crypto market needs to demonstrate its own potential for growth.

As of July 22, no such trends have been observed. Bitcoin daily trading volumes remain at an extremely low level, in the region of $25.7 billion. And despite the upward trend in bitcoin trading volumes, bearish sentiment is still strong in the market. The price of BTC practically did not increase over the past day since the asset broke through the $32,000 mark, but immediately rolled back. The local dynamics of the price movement also remain extremely volatile. This indicates a gradual increase in the volatility indicator. Due to the narrow range of bitcoin fluctuations, its impact on the market is not so noticeable, but it will increase as bitcoin indicators move or the trading range expands. At the same time, the increase in volatility also indicates an influx of audience into bitcoin, due to which the number of speculative coins is increasing. In the four-hour chart, BTC/USD is showing small bullish impulses. The RSI is around 70 and the MACD is in the red.



In the near future, the cryptocurrency will continue to fluctuate around $31,500 - $32,000. However, bitcoin is unlikely to gain a foothold above the round mark due to increased pressure from sellers. Also since the boundary of the downward movement zone passes at the value of $32,100. A breakdown of this mark will mean an exit from the local figure of the descending triangle and further movement to the next resistance zone in the area of $33,000. However, given the weak social activity in the market and the skepticism of the audience, bitcoin will need a powerful news impulse or investment to break through a difficult milestone.



It is likely that the necessary positive news has already occurred, but the cryptocurrency reacts very modestly to it. We are talking about the performance of big investors in the crypto market. For example, Twitter founder Jack Dorsey said that the platform will start accepting payments in bitcoins from advertisers. Elon Musk also announced that his company SpaceX owns bitcoin, but did not specify how much. But more important news from the billionaire was a positive assessment of the changes in BTC mining, which means the resumption of accepting cryptocurrency as payment for Tesla services. At the same time, Musk did not specify a specific date for resuming cooperation.

The founder of ARK Invest also said that in the near future, cryptocurrency mining will become more environmentally friendly than the classic financial services market. However, the main news event that can give the necessary impetus to the cryptocurrency market will be the publication of Tesla's financial statements, scheduled for July 26. Recall that at the beginning of the year, the carmaker declared a multimillion-dollar profit thanks to the purchase of bitcoin. In the first quarter of 2021, this triggered a bullish breakout of bitcoin and contributed to the establishment of a historical maximum. Let's see what effect the reporting will have at the end of July.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

EU will not ban anonymous cryptocurrency wallets

The cryptocurrency community exhaled on the clarification of yesterday's statements of the European Commission regulators.

In a nutshell: yesterday, the European Union proposed to introduce a ban on all anonymous transactions with cryptocurrency as part of a broad plan to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. The EU plans to implement a number of proposals to strengthen the supervision of financial transactions, as well as to create a new supervisory body staffed by 250 people, which will oversee risky financial institutions and their transactions. Here, most likely, we are talking about cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial organizations that are engaged in the purchase, sale, and exchange of cryptocurrencies. Apparently, in the near future, a ban on monetary transactions on such assets for more than €10,000 will be introduced.

Against this background, the bitcoin exchange rate sank significantly, however, after the crypto community studied the document in more detail, it became clear that everything is far from what was said in the statement. It is unclear why the context related to the ban on anonymous transactions and accounts was pulled out. Either this is a gross mistake or a deliberate misrepresentation to "annoy".



So what is wrong, you ask?

Claims that European Commission regulators will soon ban anonymous cryptocurrency wallets are not true. In this case, it means that instead of a ban on the use of anonymous cryptocurrency wallets, the EU will establish stricter, but justified rules for operators and financial service providers in this direction. First of all, we are talking about exchanges, financial companies and the banking sector, which already provide depository services for the storage and exchange of cryptocurrencies. The new rules will affect precisely the movement of capital. With the help of these measures (mainly), the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism is now being carried out. The rules prohibit the provision of anonymous services, such as the creation of accounts (wallets for cryptocurrency) or its exchange, provided by a third party. There was no talk about a ban on personal cryptocurrency wallets and a ban on the use of software for this purpose.

The EC noted that citizens will be able to freely acquire, store and spend cryptocurrency anonymously, but on condition that you do not engage in criminal activity. In this case, anonymity will not last long.

As I noted in yesterday's review, the introduction of a ban on anonymous cryptocurrency wallets, in fact, imposes a ban on the entire industry, since almost every cryptocurrency wallet is anonymous by default.

Experts point out that due to the lack of qualified specialists in this field, the attempt to regulate cryptocurrencies is too often carried out by people who know almost nothing about the technology. Therefore, such errors are obtained out of the blue. But some do not exclude the fact of a special injection of this kind of information to probe the market and study the reaction to this news. It seems incredible that a high-ranking EU commissioner, whose staff is professional, could make such an incorrect statement. The cryptocurrency community explains it this way: the EU knows it cannot ban anonymous wallets, but by hiding the difference between custodian wallets and self-storage software, they can mislead some part of the population.

Another issue that worries the community is the new era of digital currency. In the not too distant future, every time you buy a cup of coffee, someone, somewhere, might know about it. This is the main problem with the new digital dollar, euro or yuan, or any other currency. But aside from the retail consumer, digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies, pose a "fundamental threat" to central banks around the world, as they simply exclude banks from the system as they will no longer be needed. Everything will be managed by the Central Bank, excluding intermediaries from the general picture.

In turn, governments say they are developing their own digital currencies in order to increase trust in payment systems and increase consumer confidence. But they forget to say the most important thing: in using this kind of digital asset, you completely lose your privacy.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, its rebound from $29,000 is a good signal for the market. If we see a breakdown of $29,200 in the near future, then it is unlikely that something will stop bitcoin on the way to test the $25,700 minimum, and then the $21,600 area. Most likely, only there will we see a return of big players to the market and a set of new positions. So far, there has been no serious movement of bitcoin to cryptocurrency exchanges, which indicates the nerves of steel investors. It will be possible to say that the situation has returned to normal only after BTC returns to the $32,400 level and consolidates above this range. Only after that, the upward correction will continue to the $36,000 area, and it will be possible to talk about the resistance test at $41,100.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 22,.2021 - Breakout of the symmetrical triangle to the downside

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways in the past 24 hours but I see downside breakout of the symmetrical triangle, which is good signal for the downside movement.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at the price of $31,000.

Stochastic is showing fresh bear cross, which is another sign of the weakness...

Key resistance is set at $32,800




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021