Cryptocurrency Analysis

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A bitcoin whale bought $900 million worth of coins, but this did not help the rate of "digital gold"



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency, after spending four days near the support level of $31,100, still overcame the said level, and now continue to fall to the next support level of $29,700. By and large, this level has already been reached, and it can be overcome in the coming hours. If this happens, a new wave of sales will cover bitcoin, which will provoke a new drop in quotes. This is exactly what we have been talking about in recent days. The technical picture for bitcoin did not suggest anything other than a further fall. Only in the last couple of hours, the main cryptocurrency has fallen in price by $1200 and it does not seem that investors are thinking about buying the main cryptocurrency. It was mentioned earlier that institutional investors failed to maintain the bullish trend.

Yesterday, it became known that in the period from July 16 to 18, an unknown investor bought almost 30,000 coins, which he distributed to 8 addresses, which already had 8,000 coins at that time. Thus, in total, this transaction is estimated at almost $1 billion. However, even such a large transaction did not help bitcoin to start a new round of growth. Therefore, at this time, most owners are probably trying to get rid of the cryptocurrency and its "counterparts". The ultra-negative fundamental background, the unclear prospects of the entire cryptocurrency market, the possible tightening of the regulation of bitcoin circulation in the United States, as well as the simple lack of faith in rapid growth, put the strongest pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency in the world.

However, some experts advise not to despair. Bitcoin remains an extremely volatile digital instrument and for it to return to the highs of 2021 is not a "mission impossible". Strong corrections have happened before. Every time the "bullish" trend ended, the cryptocurrency lost up to 90% of its value. Thus, the long-term prospects for bitcoin remain quite positive. However, most experts still tend to believe that in the coming months, the decline in bitcoin quotes will continue. The level of $24,000 per coin is considered the first target, but everyone claims that the cryptocurrency can sink to $10,000. Experts also believe that bitcoin can consolidate until 2023, which completely coincides with our forecasts. It has already been repeatedly stated that after each bullish trend, the cryptocurrency goes into consolidation for a year or two. However, experts forecast a fairly strong growth factor for bitcoin, which will begin to influence the exchange rate in 2023. This factor is halving, that is, a reduction in the reward for one mined block, which is planned for 2024. Usually, a year before the next halving, a new upward trend begins to form.



Technically, bitcoin overcame the support level of $31,100 and worked out the level of $29,700. Thus, if the last level is also overcome, bitcoin will clear its way to the level of $24,350. The fundamental background and the very fact that the bullish trend is over, now speak in favor of continuing the fall of "digital gold". It should also be noted that if the fall of bitcoin is so strong now, where can the cryptocurrency be in the next 12-15 months? After all, only a few months have passed since the end of the bullish trend, and bitcoin has already lost more than 50% of its value.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple Potential For Reversal Upwards

Ripple is trading in the red but it seems a little oversold. It has slipped lower as the price of Bitcoin has dropped further. The bias is bearish right now, so we have to wait for fresh long opportunities.

Bitcoin's growth in the coming days from a major support zone could really bring a rebound on XRP/USD. Ripple is trading above a strong support zone, so it could start increasing anytime.

XRP/USD SEEMS OVERSOLD!



Ripple is almost to reach the weekly S1 (0.5469) level which is seen as support. The pressure is high as long as it stays under the downtrend line. Only an upside breakout could really activate a new swing higher.

0.5096 is seen as major static support. It has moved away from the broken downtrend line, but this is not enough for us to consider going long. Going short around these levels is risky as the crypto could turn to the upside.


FORECAST!

XRP/USD could offer is a great buying opportunity if it jumps and stabilizes above the downtrend line and beyond the weekly pivot point (0.6020).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum remains under pressure, reaches target.

In our last analysis on Ethereum we noted how vulnerable price was and the potential for a deeper decline towards $1,800. Right now price is trading at $1,803 as trend remains bearish in the short-term, with price making lower lows and lower highs.



Red lines - Fibonacci expansion target

Ethereum has so far reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of the first part of the decline. Price remains in a bearish trend. For trend to change to bullish, we will need at least a move above $1,920. The new low in price was not followed by a new low in the RSI. This is a bullish divergence. This is the first warning that the downtrend is weakening.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Sideways or Triangle?

Bitcoin behaved extremely restrained throughout the weekend drawing a doji candlestick near the support at 31,082.82, marked with a red dotted line. The slow decline gave way to uncertainty.

Against this background, the previous forecast has not lost its relevance, but there is something that made us look at the situation from a different angle.

After the big Chinese collapse during the month, BTC/USD clearly worked out a wide frame - the sideways borders 31,082.82 - 41,980.24. But in recent weeks, the decline has slowed down, and in the course of the short-term recovery failed to reach resistance.

Now, when the price has once again returned to the support at 31,082.82, the consolidation period on the daily chart began to resemble a rectangular downward triangle. And this changes the situation. A descending triangle is a figure that breaks down and works down approximately its height.

If so, then upon the breakdown of 31,082.82, the price may fall to about $20,000 per coin. But we have already discussed this in the previous review. Are there any alternatives left? I think so, and here's why:

The triangle does not yet differ in particular technical correctness, its upper boundary is drawn very tentatively. Until the level of 31,082.82 is broken with confirmation as resistance, BTC/USD still has a chance to recover. In this case, either the upper border of the triangle will be confirmed, or the price will break through it and prove that the sideways trend 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 is relevant.


Against this background, the forecast for the recovery of bitcoin is not canceled, but there is concern about the likelihood of a deeper correction.

Meanwhile, the opinions of influencers and analysts are very different, which is not surprising. Some predict a bearish scenario, others - an increase that is about to begin.

For example, the popular network analyst Will Clemente believes that the bitcoin rally is not far off, as the main cryptocurrency is faced with the possibility of a reduction in supply. He stated that on-net signals indicate an increase in bitcoin adoption around the world.

He also adds that bitcoin's illiquid supply ratio is on a steady upward trend following the sell-off caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

Clemente also emphasizes that whales, or organizations that own coins between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have been actively buying since early July. The analyst says these investors have already added more than $2.40 billion in bitcoin to their holdings in the past 14 days, setting the stage for growth.

Interestingly, the scenarios of the triangle breakout and the bitcoin whale optimism may not contradict each other at all. The only question is, from what values the main cryptocurrency will begin to recover.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Hopes for rapid growth of bitcoin did not materialize



Bitcoin has been tightly stuck around the $31,000 level in the past few days and has only managed to overcome it during today's trading. Currently, one bitcoin coin is trading at $30,500. And this price value suggests a further decline in its quotes. Most analysts agree that the bitcoin price will continue to fall. This scenario is supported by the fact that bitcoin is an extremely hype cryptocurrency and digital asset. In other words, it is in demand when there is a high likelihood of rapid growth. Cryptocurrency is still used to get rich quick, but at this time the chances of growth are negligible, and the period of consolidation after the peak values of 2021 has dragged on for several months. Thus, speculators, whose calculation is to make a quick profit, leave the market.

Mining activity has also been declining recently. This is primarily due to the repression of miners in China, which has banned mining activities on its territory. The hash rate of the network falls, the difficulty of mining one block of bitcoin decreases. All this speaks in favor of the fact that the interest of investors and speculators in the main cryptocurrency is falling. The news background for bitcoin also remains unimportant now. I have already spoken about the events in China in recent months. But it is China that is the first in the world to mine coins. Although in the near future it will cease to be such. The shares of mined coins are growing in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the United States. Nevertheless, many analysts maintain favorable long-term forecasts. Recently, a survey was conducted among cryptocurrency experts, and a fairly significant part said they expect the displacement of fiat money by bitcoin by 2040. However, no less than a part of the surveyed experts said that bitcoin will never displace fiat money.

At the same time, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor gave several interviews recently, in which he stated that the future remains for bitcoin, and the US authorities have no reason to worry about the impact of cryptocurrencies on the US economy and the national currency. Saylor considers bitcoin to be a digital asset that is somewhat similar to other assets like gold or real estate. According to him, the US government is not worried about the rising value of gold, so why should it be worried about bitcoin? Moreover, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, said recently that bitcoin has failed as a means of payment and does not pose any threat to the financial stability of the country and the dollar. Sailor also advised former boxer, Mike Tyson, to buy bitcoin rather than ether. "I bought $2.9 billion worth of bitcoins because I consider it the future of digital property," Saylor wrote on Twitter.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC closer to $30,000 breakdown amid potential sell-off on Grayscale investment fund

Bitcoin gave a clear signal about the displacement of the local oscillation zone on Friday. And on Monday, July 19, the cryptocurrency finally fell into the area of $31,200 and is gradually approaching the $30,000 mark. Despite the clear downward movement of the coin, BTC is still fluctuating in a wide range of $30,000-$41,000. Until the key line is broken, the probability of a bullish breakout to the nearest safe zone in the region of $32,800 remains.

Over the weekend, the first cryptocurrency held above the current support level and broke through the $32,000 mark. However, the asset failed to gain a foothold above the round mark, and BTC again slid to the fluctuation zone around $31,200. Even though the cryptocurrency retains the chances of making a breakout and entering a safe zone, the main priority for bitcoin remains the completion of the trading day above the horizontal support zone of $31,200. If the cryptocurrency completes the current day below this mark, then the movement to $30,000 will accelerate significantly. It is with this input that bitcoin rolls into the new trading week.

The horizontal charts clearly show that, even without news impulses, the indicators of the BTC/USD pair are smoothly approaching the main support area around $30,000. The bearish trend is interrupted by short-term bullish impulses that do not have the desired effect but slow down the price decline. If there is no serious announcement in the field of the crypto market, then we can expect a leisurely movement towards the support zone of $30,000. Further breakdown of this mark is quickly leveled by a rebound at the local level of $28,800. If bitcoin breaks through this line too, then a local sale may begin due to a large number of orders and stops concentrated at this mark. With sufficient market support, bitcoin will bounce back and bounce off the $25,000 mark and return to a wide range of fluctuations.

However, it should be noted that there are many "buts" that can affect the actions of investors and the situation on the market as a whole. First of all, the historical context, which suggests that BTC is approaching one of the most unfortunate months in its history. It is this factor that precedes the unhurried downward movement of the cryptocurrency. Another important factor that has already provoked the local BTC collapse is the expiration of the storage of bitcoins by Grayscale investors after a 6-month ban. The first restrictions were lifted yesterday, July 18, which provoked a sharp collapse of the cryptocurrency from the $32,000 mark. All in all, January shares of more than $1.4 billion can be sold in July, which at the current stage is a very significant figure for the market. In addition, the social activity on the network of the first cryptocurrency leaves much to be desired. Over the past week, the number of active addresses has decreased by 28%, while the retail audience of the cryptocurrency continues to decline. Ultimately, this can lead to the so-called "paralysis" of traders, which will negatively affect the rise in the price of bitcoin.



At the same time, a negative market sentiment may have a positive outcome. At the current stage, the community is extremely skeptical about the possible growth of the cryptocurrency market. However, given the experience of spring manipulation, major players may contribute to a backlash, resulting in a bullish surge and a wide trend reversal. In addition, it would be wrong to say that the bulls are not ready to buy back the price decline. This is evidenced by the annual indicator of the ratio of market and realized value, which reached -15%. Moreover, the bullish audience prefers to enter the market in the range from -25% to 35%. The mining industry is also gradually recovering, which is already giving positive signals to the market. For example, it became known that after the "relocation" of mining facilities from China, the difficulty of mining the first cryptocurrency dropped to the lows of January 2020. At the same time, the main technical indicators of bitcoin are gradually approaching their maximums.

Despite the local positive, as of July 19, bitcoin is much closer to the breakdown of $30,000. The likelihood of a bullish breakout to $32,000 remains, but the medium-term MACD and RSI indicators point to a downside movement. If a powerful news impulse does not happen, then bitcoin will slowly drop beyond the $30,000 mark by next week. The further movement of BTC will depend on the reaction of the market and the news background, which, despite the slight positive, is more annoying for investors.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for July 19 - 20, 2021: Key level $31,250



In the early American session, Bitcoin is trading at around the psychological level of $30,000, after having broken the level of 2/8 of murray. The price is located below it and there is a risk of a fall towards the zone of $28,125 or 1/8 murray.

BTC price is moving to the key support level of $30,000. At present, the cryptocurrency is trading in small volumes. At the fundamental level, Bitcoin is still in its recovery phase.

On the other hand, BTC mining firms are facing headwinds as financial watchdogs worldwide are tightening their stance on the crypto industry that accounts for smaller mining volumes. In particular, this occurs in response to the ongoing mining migration out of China caused by a major crackdown on cryptocurrency mining by local authorities. This is also causing BTC to remain under pressure and this consolidation phase is likely to continue.

In view of the fact that BTC has no fundamentals to aid its recovery, we believe that if BTC trades below the $ 30,000 level, it could continue its bearish cycle to the 28,125 zone in the short term.

Conversely, a break above the 21 SMA and a consolidation above the 2/8 murray will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at the 200 EMA located at $34.114.

The eagle indicator is showing a bearish signal, which suggests that BTC is still at risk of a drop towards the 28,000 zone.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 19 - 20, 2021
Resistance (3) 33,534
Resistance (2) 32,244
Resistance (1) 31,645

Support (1) 30,354
Support (2) 29,662
Support (3) 38,710




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BITCOIN Hot Forecast , 19 July

BTC continues to move sideways.
Support around $31,000 still holds.
Bears target $30,000 next.



Bitcoin price analysis indicates bearish pressure for the next 24 hours as another lower high was set yesterday, and the market returned to the $31,000 support overnight. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to make another push to the downside later this week to try to reach the $30,000 mark next.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price consolidating sideways over the last days as bears prepare to push to $30,000 next.

Bitcoin price structure trades with a clear bearish sentiment over the last weeks. After BTC/USD made a strong push lower in the second half of June, strong support was established at around $29,000.

From the $29,000 support, BTC/USD quickly rallied to the $35,000 mark first, and after some pause, to the $36,500 mark next, where a new several week lower high was set. What followed was a steady decline lower over the following weeks with clear lower lows set.

This price action development should lead BTC/USD towards further downside later this week below the $31,000 support and towards the $30,000 mark next. Bitcoin price analysis is bearish for the next 24 hours as the market moves away from the $32,500 local lower high and prepares for another push lower. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to break lower over the upcoming days and reach the $30,000 support next.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of BCN/USD pair

BCN/USD



There was a productive and promising rise, followed by an equally large-scale and significant decline. As a result, the market is looking for a foothold to stop losses. At the moment, the support of the weekly cloud (426.97 - 381.18) has been found. The breakdown of the encountered supports will open the way to the target for the breakdown of the daily cloud. The first target is set at 176.81, and 100% of the development is at 14.38, which will almost completely destroy the former price ratios. If the slowdown is indicated and formed, according to the results of which the bulls will start to restore their positions. The nearest important level is within the range of 468.24 - 500.11 (the daily Ichimoku dead cross). An entry into the daily cloud (538.03) and the breakdown of the weekly short-term trend (594.30) will be important.



The encountered support levels in the smaller time frames have been restraining the development of the situation for quite some time. Being under key levels retains some advantage on the bears' side, and due to which, there are chances to further fall. Today, the supports of the classic pivot levels can be marked at the borders of 428 - 420 - 408. The breakdown of the key levels 440-447 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) and a sharp consolidation above will be able to change the balance of forces acting on the hourly chart. Here, the upward pivot points are now located at 449 - 460 - 469.


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart are used in the technical analysis of this instrument.




Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 19,.2021 - Watch for the breakout mode

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways (contraction) in the pat few days and I see potential for the breakout play.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for the breakout to confirm further direction.

Upside breakout of resistance at $32,175 can lead BTC for test of $34,500

Downside breakout of support at $31,000 can lead BTC towards $28,950





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021