Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC hit a two-week low due to selling pressure: will a $28,800 retest happen?

Bitcoin continues to be in uncertainty and is trading in a wide range of $31,000 - $41,000. For more than two weeks, the market has formed another local channel of fluctuations in the range of $36,000 - $31,000. Over the past few days, there has been a tendency for an even greater narrowing of the fluctuation corridor, which has begun to gravitate towards the lower border. In a broad sense, this is due to both fundamental factors, such as the news background and the general economic situation of individual regions, and technical ones.

Such a clear movement of the bitcoin towards the lower border is associated with bearish trends in the market and record low volumes of daily trading. At the same time, the general situation of BTC is far from even moving to the level of $36,000, where local resistance is concentrated. This is because, with each unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above $34,000 and the subsequent rollback, fewer buyers are ready to win back the price decline. This is partly due to the general trend of intra-range trading, which does not allow for profit. Partly with the increased pressure of sellers, who put pressure on the price, and each subsequent rebound from the level below $32,000 is getting smaller. This trend is clearly visible in the context of the last few days when the coin failed to reach even the middle of the local oscillation channel.



In the short term, this promises a gradual downward movement and a retest of the support level at $30,000. The breakout of the main horizontal line at $31,800 can be carried out today, when bitcoin ends the trading day under the $32,800. In a broader perspective, the gradual declination of the channel towards the descending line will lead to a shift in the fluctuation range in the corridor of $25,000 - $30,000. The next resistance zone, after the breakdown of $30,000, will be the $28,800 mark, where at the beginning of July the market found the bottom and made a powerful rebound. This support level will become the key when analyzing the further movement of cryptocurrency quotes. This is because after a powerful rebound at around $28,800, many stops and liquidations of long positions were formed, as at the most critically low point of the current market cycle.

If this happens, then the quotes of the BTC/USD pair will sink even lower, to the level of $20,000 - $25,000, and pull altcoins along. In the medium term, this can provoke a sharp trend reversal and push bitcoin out of the $30,000 zone. As of July 15, it is extremely difficult to judge the strength of such an impulse and its impact on the growth of BTC quotes. At the same time, given the current interest of players in the market and the record low volumes of daily trading since December 2020, this movement will help restore the fluctuation ranges of the mid-June sample.

As of 14:00 UTC, bitcoin quotes remain under the $32,000 mark. On the intraday time frame, bitcoin tried to gain a foothold above $33,000, but the pressure of sellers takes the asset under the safe zone of $32,000. On a weekly basis, the main task of buyers is to return to the average value of fluctuations in the region of $34,000 and the subsequent movement beyond the resistance zone (above $36,000). If you designate the target more locally, then BTC must end the current day above the buyback zone on July 14, that is, above $31,800. If the asset completes trading under this line, then on July 16-17, the fluctuation corridor will move to the levels of $31,000 - $30,000.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
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