Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BITCOIN Price Analysis for 5th July

BTC established a lower high, around $36,000.
Market rapidly moves to rest $33,000 previous low.
Next support around $31,000



Bitcoin price analysis is bearish for today as the market established a lower high overnight and started pushing lower earlier today. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to move past the $33,000 support and reach further lows later this week.

BTC/USD is trading in a range of $33,608 – $35,937, indicating a substantial amount of volatility. Trading volume has remained flat and totals $25.4 billion, while the total market capitalization trades around $630.6 billion, resulting in the market dominance of 44.87 percent.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price moving lower after failing to set a higher high, indicating that further downside is expected later this week.

Bitcoin price action continues trading sideways over the past weeks after support was found around $30,000, and the market failed to move lower from there. Another attempt to push lower to the $29,000 mark was followed, where a slightly lower low was set on the 22nd of June.

Earlier today, Bitcoin price started pushing lower again and breached the several-day ascending support trendline over the past hours. This price action development signals that BTC/USD wants to reverse to the downside again and see the market make another attempt to set a major swing lower low.

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as a lower high was set around $36,000 overnight, indicating that bulls are exhausted. Therefore, BTC/USD will likely continue lower later this week as the market momentum shifts back to being bearish.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Whales keep accumulating Bitcoin - bullish signal

Interesting information appeared over the weekend related to the Federal Reserve System and Bitcoin. On the eve of the biggest drop in the Bitcoin rate since its inception, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with the CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. and crypto advocate Christopher Giancarlo. This was recorded in the central bank's calendar.

Powell's personal meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan lasted about 30 minutes. A few days later, the cryptocurrency exchange rate fell sharply, which sowed panic in the market and led to a major prolonged fall. Representatives of the Fed and Coinbase declined to comment on what exactly was discussed during the meeting.



Let me remind you that Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, and just recently passed its IPO, which was a very serious step for the crypto industry. This greatly fueled interest in investing in this area among large and medium-sized players. On May 12, Powell met with the former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Giancarlo, and the director of the Digital Dollar project. Although the meeting was different in that it was virtual, it also lasted 30 minutes. What was discussed there is also shrouded in mystery.

This news indicates the Fed's growing interest in the digital dollar and most likely Jerome Powell was trying to figure out how to more safely implement a new direction for the American central bank. In a May 20 statement, Powell said, "We at the Federal Reserve are committed to listening to a wide range of crypto industry representatives on the important issue of the digital dollar for the entire economy. Only then will we make any decision on whether or not to promote CBDC in the US." Powell also said he wants the Fed to play a leading role in developing international digital currency standards.

Currently, many of the leading central banks around the world are developing digital currencies. This primarily concerns the People's Bank of China, which promotes digital currencies, which can give them a head start in developing standards in part because they have real experience in this area.

As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, buyers have real problems with the breakout of the resistance at 36,000, which creates quite a lot of problems for further growth. Going beyond this range will lead to a new upward wave to the upper border of the side channel 41,100. Only after the breakout of this range can we seriously talk about a new wave of BTC growth in the area of the 46,700 and 52,000 highs. The bears face a completely different task. To begin with, they need to prevent Bitcoin from going above 36,000, but a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel around 30,000 will collapse the rate to a minimum of 25,700 and 21,650.



Good news for Bitcoin buyers continues to pour in. According to the latest figures from Glassnode, the number of coins owned by whales - addresses controlled from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC - has grown by more than 80,000 to 4.216 million. This is the highest level since May this year, which was before the collapse. The number of whales also jumped to a three-week high of 1922.

The moment the whales' accumulation resumes is good news for the market, as wealthy investors continue to believe in the market and are not going to leave even after trying to dip the 30,000 level. They may have played a significant role in holding it after the last test. The growth in the balance of whales also suggests that the bottom may have already been reached and that consolidation and a period of accumulation with subsequent growth awaits us ahead.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical analysis for Bitcoin

BITCOIN


The situation has not significantly changed since the last analysis. Bitcoin returned to the zone of its previous consolidation after testing the lows. The center of attraction of this zone is now formed by the levels of the daily cross (35164 Kijun - 33689 Tenkan) and the monthly medium-term trend (34355). In the short term, it is important for the bulls to leave the current attraction zone and consolidate above the next resistance levels of 37880 - 38958 (lower border of the daily cloud + monthly Tenkan) As for the bears, their main task after getting rid of the attraction (34355) is to update the lows (29152 - 29702) and sharply consolidate below.



Bitcoin changes its location in the smaller time frames quite often relative to key levels, while none of the participants achieves performance and stability, which confirms the uncertainty and consolidation in the higher time frames. At the moment, the next testing of the key levels is underway, which are located at 35082 (central pivot level) and 34300 (weekly long-term trend) today. A movement below the levels will provide an advantage to the bearish traders. In this case, we can note the support of the classic pivot levels of 33672 and 33149 as pivot points in the H1 chart.

On the contrary, a consolidation above the key levels (34300 - 35082) will form preconditions and conditions to strengthen the bullish mood. In this case, the upward pivot points 35970 - 36493 - 37380 (resistances of classic pivot levels) may appear.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this instrument.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for July 05,.2021 - Potential for the drop towards $30.000

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading downside and see downside continuation towards $30.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies due to potential end of the upside correction (ABC) and the outside bear bar....

Downside targets are set at the price of $30.000 and $28.920.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition, which is another sign and confirmation for the downside rotation.

Key resistance is set at the price of $36.500




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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What is Bitcoin's prospect in 50 years?



Over the weekend, Bitcoin broke through the level of $ 35,000 since the largest investors (holders of digital assets), who are called whales in the crypto space, bought 60,000 bitcoins.

The main cryptocurrency increased by 5% on Saturday and Sunday for the first time in several weeks.

According to certain data from the analytical company Santiment, 60,000 bitcoins were bought by the whales within a day.

It is clearly noticeable on the chart that the whales are currently accumulating large positions. The main bitcoin holders have accumulated more than 100,000 coins over the past six weeks.



The increase in bitcoin prices, which is actually equivalent to the accumulation of bitcoins by whales, corresponds to the recent decline in the complexity of mining. Last week, the complexity of mining fell to 28%. This was the largest adjustment in history.

The demand for bitcoins is growing constantly, while China continues to impose bans on mining.

Based on CNBC's earlier reports, when it conducted a survey from different fields with a request to describe their vision of cryptocurrencies after 50 years, many of the respondents replied that traditional finance will most likely be replaced by cryptocurrency due to the efficiency of transferring payments abroad with minimal costs and delays. As for bitcoin specifically, it is possible that it will become the reserve currency of the world or the next AOL, which has made many people rich until it is replaced by more advanced technologies.





Irina Yanina
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin is about to experience its greatest downturn ever recorded. At the time of writing, BTC mining difficulty is 19.93 trillion and is expected to decline by 27.04% today. In Bitcoin mining, the difficulty of the network is the parameter that maintains a consistent average time between BTC blocks.

The difficulty parameter is a metric that shows how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block. The higher the difficulty level, the more computing power it takes to find the block.

When the difficulty of mining online is lower, it becomes much easier for Bitcoin miners to find the blocks. The difficulty that increases with hashrate means that the interested party will have to spend enormous amounts of resources in order to break into the system.

The upcoming shift in Bitcoin's difficulty comes at a time when Chinese miners are told to operate elsewhere, and much of the computing power was turned off last Monday. During the last BTC difficulty change at block 687 456 on June 13, 2021, the global hashrate was around 142.68 (EH / s).

From block height 687,456, the BTC hashrate dropped by 39% to 86.5 EH / s. The Bitcoin network difficulty has doubled ahead of the upcoming 27% decline expected today.

The biggest decline in BTC's history so far has taken place on October 30, 2011, the day before Halloween.

At that time, the difficulty dropped by 18.03%, with the BTC 151,200 block high, while the global hashrate was only 8.61 (TH / s). From a certain perspective, today a single next-generation Bitcoin miner, created by Microbt or Bitmain, has a computing power of around 100 TH / s.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has hit the level of $35,903 and then the rally was capped as the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made. The market is back to the consolidation zone as the new local low was made at the level of $33,967. The momentum is decreasing and it is hovering around the neutral level of fifty points. Please notice the price is approaching the short-term trend line support as well. Any violation of the level of $32,565 will likely push the momentum back into the negative territory. The key mid-term technical support is still located at $29,187.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $41,360
WR2 - $38,888
WR1 - $37,348

Weekly Pivot - $34,961
WS1 - $33,339
WS2 - $30,861
WS3 - $29,475


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Security Service of Ukraine discovered and closed an illegally operating crypto-farm in the Chernihiv region in the north of the country. Unidentified owners illegally connected the facility to the electrical transformer substation of the regional power grid.

The mining farm had 150 ASICs running on stolen electricity. During the confiscation, the equipment and other components were confiscated. The excavators were installed in rented storage facilities and burned energy for around 3 million Ukrainian hryvnias, or nearly $ 110,000, in just two months.

According to law enforcement, the substation to which the miners were connected supplies the Nizhin Ambulance Service, the municipal water supply company and other important facilities. Part of the region may have been deprived of electricity as the mining farm could have caused breakdowns and supply interruptions.

Apparently, the owners of the farm tried to hide the theft from the local power company by installing specialized equipment to lower the meter readings. The investigation is ongoing.

The Ukrainian security service has recently been quite active in the cryptographic space and this is not the first operation of this type this year. In early June, the SBU found a crypto-farm illegally connected to the power grid in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Agents confiscated 350 mining rigs that had illegally used electricity worth more than $ 70,000 in three months, according to a press release.

Cryptocurrencies have not yet been regulated in Ukraine. However, the authorities in Kiev are still considering appropriate regulations for the developing industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,228 and made a new local high at the level of $2,394. Currently, the market is testing the technical support seen at the level of $2,256. The momentum is now strong and positive, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,453. On the other hand, any violation of the level of $2,043 will likely expose the level of $1,941 for a test again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,160
WR2 - $2,743
WR1 - $2,603

Weekly Pivot - $2,208
WS1 - $2,064
WS2 - $1,646
WS3 - $1,514


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin remains below key resistance levels, bulls have a lot of work to do to regain control of the trend.

Bitcoin is trading once again around $35,000-$36,000. Short-term trend is unclear as price continues to trade sideways between $38,000-$30,000. Medium-term trend remains bearish and as long as price is below $41,000 there is a possibility of seeing price dip below $29,000.



In the 4 hour chart as shown above, price is bouncing off the Ichimoku cloud support and is moving above both the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Support by these two indicators is found at $34,900-$34,000. Cloud support is key between $34,300-$32,800. As long as price is above this support zone, we could see higher levels towards $38,000. If this support level fails to hold, we should expect price to challenge $30,000 again.



In the Daily chart bears remain in control of the trend. Price is below the Daily Kumo (cloud) and this confirms the bearish trend. Bulls will need to break inside the Kumo above $37,700 to change trend to neutral. Support by the tenkan-sen is found at $33,300. A break below this level will increase chances of retesting $30,000. Bitcoin is still vulnerable to a move lower. The danger of seeing a move towards $25,000 is still there as price is below the cloud resistance.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin bulls' optimism fades: crypto winter has already arrived

If we consider the Bitcoin chart locally, then the previous forecast and recommendations remain unchanged. The sideways at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 is relevant, it is recommended to buy or sell from its borders.

But the outlook for long-term investors began to shift towards a bearish scenario. Even convinced Bitcoin bulls have started talking about crypto winter.

In an interview, ADVFN CEO Clem Chambers said his optimism about Bitcoin had subsided. Now he has taken a bearish position, claiming that the price of the main cryptocurrency will fall to $10,000 within the current cycle.

Chambers was interviewed by Stansberry Research Chambers, who predicted in 2018 that the cryptocurrency would return to $20,000, and if "the asset's market mechanism remains viral," it could grow to $200,000 or even $2 million.

Now the CEO of ADVFN believes that the price of Bitcoin will drop to $20,000 soon. And the bear market will end when Bitcoin hits the bottom at $10,000. Moreover, the lower limit of the range, noted by Chambers, may turn out to be slightly higher, in the range between $12,000 and $13,000.

He draws such conclusions based on the fact that Bitcoin "repeats the same old patterns over and over again." According to him, in 2011, 2015, 2017, and 2021, the same situation occurred on the chart of the main cryptocurrency after the halving. "It takes off like a rocket and falls like a rock," Chambers said.

According to him, when BTC/USD falls like a rock, it reaches the bottom "about twice as high" compared to the previous market low. And since the last time, the market reached the bottom on average at the level of $5,000, which means that now it will reach the lower limit at the level of $10,000.


Chambers believes that this time the market would have peaked at $40,000 if institutions hadn't started investing in Bitcoin and brought it to the $60,000 mark.

The CEO noted that he expects a crypto winter in the near future, where Bitcoin could drop below five-digit levels before traders capitulate. In fact, the crypto winter is "already here," and if traders remain long, "it will only get worse."

Chambers said the fall looks exciting to him because investors can build up positions by averaging dollar value over a long period, waiting for the next spike, which may occur after the next halving.

He said that he plans to use this strategy to buy for three years until he has a "huge position" before the next bullish move. Ultimately, he intends to sell his Bitcoins for $90,000 or more when the cycle repeats.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for ETH/USD (Ethereum) for July 02 - 05, 2021: Sell Below $ 2,129



Ethereum, ETH / USD, is trading below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA, with a bearish bias, having bounced from the $1,700 zone. It could face this level again.

ETH / USD could not break the EMA of 200 which is located at $ 2,325. It stayed just below this level. Now the price is turning lower again, consolidating below the SMA of 21. As long as it is located below 2,129, there will be downward pressure, thus suggesting a good selling opportunity.

The cryptocurrency market remains nervous and is braced for a stronger decline in the coming days. When everything seemed to be going well, the market makes a downward turn. Retail investors are getting into a panic which does not encourage a sustainable bullish momentum.

Some investors believe that the price of Ethereum should cost between $1,000 to $1,500. This is a reasonable price according to market demand. However, the bulls still believe that ETH can return to the price of $4,000.

Technically, our outlook is bearish for now. A fall to 1,500 could occur in the short term if the 200 EMA continues to push down and ETH trades below this level.

Our recommendation is to sell in any attempt to break the 21 SMA with targets in $1,875 and $1,700.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 02 - 05, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,370
Resistance (2) 2,243
Resistance (1) 2,155

Support (1) 1,930
Support (2) 1,807
Support (3) 1,663





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021