Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Could the Bitcoin ban in China have a positive outlook for BTC in the future?



It is reliably known that one of the main catalysts for the fall in the price of Bitcoin is the ban on mining, trading, and the work of various crypto platforms and over-the-counter brokers in China. However, many analysts are confident that the relocation of miners from China, for example, to the United States of America, in particular to Texas, is taking place, and this is the future.

Michael Saylor has already gathered a consultation with various miners about improving mining for the environment, and this meeting has very positive far-reaching prospects. The notification from the State Council of China on May 21 that the strictest measures will be taken regarding the ban on bitcoin mining, plunged the crypto market into shock.

Because of this, Bitcoin and other altcoins have fallen sharply in price. After that, many provinces of China, including Xinjiang and Qinghai, imposed bans on bitcoin mining. China does not want to see a digital currency that cannot be controlled, and it is also against shadow transactions and money laundering.

Nick Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics, commented on the news from China. Carter shared the opinion that Bitcoin is dangerous to China because it was an antagonist of the digital yuan. In addition, he said that the prevention of uncontrolled capital outflow may be one of the reasons for these bans. The Chinese sanctions will be a big victory for the decentralization of Bitcoin, however. Texas is already ready to accept miners in the shortest possible time.

Brandon Arvanagi, one of the former engineers at the Gemini crypto exchange, expressed a similar opinion to Nick Carter in an interview with Bloomberg. While Arvanagi said the news of the ban from China was unexpected, he compared the country's anti-bitcoin sentiment to Facebook and Google's bans. Arvanagi made it clear that Bitcoin is the best store of value in the history of mankind.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
In the second half of this year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will assess the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies (including bitcoin).

However, it is not about the bank's investment plans, but about whether investing in cryptocurrencies by individuals and entities represents a risk for the entire financial system.

In order to investigate the potential risk, the Central Bank of Russia wants to collect data from fifteen popular companies, organizations and banks. Among them there will be: Tinkoff Bank, Sberbank, Visa, Mastercard and Western Union.

By the way, the bank will want to check the interest in equity investments on the part of non-resident investors. The said report is to be prepared before the end of November 2021.

The need to conduct a risk assessment is associated with increasing criticism from local legislators and entrepreneurs. They are dissatisfied with the position of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation towards the entire cryptocurrency industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,228, but the rally was capped and the Shooting Star candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally. Currently, the market is going lower towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $2,086. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short term bullish outlook for ETH, but the bulls must break through the retracement level in order to test the high at $2,639.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,667
WR2 - $2,446
WR1 - $2,091

Weekly Pivot - $1,898
WS1 - $1,514
WS2 - $1,323
WS3 - $946


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Soros Fund Management, the private investment firm of billionaire George Soros, intends to trade bitcoin as part of wider digital asset exploration.

According to two sources familiar with the case, Dawn Fitzpatrick, CIO Soros Fund Management, has given the go-ahead to trading "bitcoin and possibly other cryptocurrencies" in the past few weeks.

People who have commented on this subject with anonymity stated that Dawn Fitzpatrick and her team have been researching the cryptocurrency industry for some time and that the current venture is definitely more than just a cursory overview of the market.

In addition, Fitzpatrick is also said to be talking about the possibility of investing in well-known blockchain-based organizations; however, the company did not disclose which companies it may be referring to.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair was capped at 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $36,610, the bears managed to push the prices back under the technical support seen at $33,602. The momentum is decreasing and it is hovering around the neutral level of fifty points. Any violation of the level of $32,565 will likely push the momentum back into the negative territory. The key mid-term technical support is still located at $29,187.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,645
WR2 - $39,211
WR1 - $35,772

Weekly Pivot - $32,390
WS1 - $29,147
WS2 - $25,680
WS3 - $22,298


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 01, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has now retraced lower towards sub $33,000 levels from recent peak above $36,600. Traders are advised to initiate fresh long positions again with risk below $28,000 mark. The crypto is trading very close to its fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally between $31,000 and $36,600 levels respectively and probability remains high for a bullish bounce here.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $33,290 levels at this point in writing and is expected to drop through $32,500 levels in the near term. If the above unfolds accordingly, bulls might be back again in control and stronger than before. Immediate support is now seen around $30,000 mark, while resistance stays at $42,600 levels respectively.

A push above $36,600 would accelerate towards $43,000 levels in the weeks to follow. Also note that potential remains to push through $48,000/49,000 levels as well before producing a meaningful retracement. It is good to remain long until prices stay above $28,000 levels, going forward.


Trading plan:
Remain long now, stop @ 28,000, target is 43,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Positive FUD for the cryptocurrency market - Bitcoin & Ethereum



The cryptocurrency market does not feel as bad as many would like it to, but it is worth accepting this and the fact as it is.

Yesterday, the media reported the strengthening foundation of the cryptocurrency industry, which was quite strong news. So, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citibank, and hundreds of other banks are already preparing their own products based on cryptocurrencies.

What does this give us?

More than 24 million Americans will soon be able to officially buy cryptocurrencies through more than 650 banks across the country. The number of new participants will grow exponentially year after year, and it will not be so easy to dismiss the existence of such an undesirable substitute.

Why do banks do this?

The answer to this question is indecently simple, they do not want to give the possible profit from this industry to services like Coinbase, which just launched deposits in USDC tokens at 4% per annum on June 30, which is several times higher than bank rates.

Banks are afraid of the outflow of customers, and in this case they are ready to do anything to keep them.

It is worth considering a very important and strategic move: as soon as large banks start mass introduction of innovative assets, an information wave will emerge, which will be supported by the media. All this can lead to a strong strengthening of cryptocurrencies, which speculators will definitely pay attention to in short-term trading.

The second news is not so global, but it reflects how much the opinion of opponents of cryptocurrencies can change.

Billionaire George Soros' investment fund will soon start trading Bitcoin. The Soros Fund Management team has been studying digital assets for a long time, and this solution is most likely more than just an experiment.

George Soros is an American trader, financier, investor and philanthropist, and perhaps one of the most famous personalities in the financial world. Not so long ago, Soros was catching up with negative FUD* towards Bitcoin and the entire industry as a whole, and now he is considering investment strategies. I wouldn't be surprised if in the future we hear from his funds that they have impressive cryptocurrency portfolios and have already earned a lot of money.

FUD is a psychological manipulation tactic used in marketing.*

What happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

Nothing drastic happened regarding my article from June 29, but still, Bitcoin touched the price level of $36,675, this is a strengthening of more than 25% since the breakout of the support level of $30,000 on June 22.

Our strategy is still focused on a sideways move in the range of $30,000 / $41,500, since a breakdown and holding the price beyond these levels can indicate a subsequent move in the market.

As for the positive information background described above, this is the foundation that will bear fruit in the future, unless, of course, the rhetoric changes.

After a prolonged weakening, Ethereum managed to partially restore the positions lost in the market, strengthening by about 32% in 4.5 days. Please note that the local minimum of May 23 - $1,728, which has not succumbed to the onslaught of sellers, serves as a pivot point.

In this case, if we are considering an upward development, then first the quotes should settle above the $2,400 level, which will give more confidence in the upward course. The biggest price changes are expected after the price is kept above the $3,000 mark. In this case, a sequential stage of recovery of the upward trend may begin.






Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for July 01,.2021 - First target reached at $33.000

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading downside as I expected. The price reached my downside target at $33.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside targets at the price of $30.000 and $29.193.

Stochastic is in oversold zone and fresh bull cross, which is sign that there is potential for the rally first and then downside continuation.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC sank below $34,000 and accumulates volumes for retesting $36,000: Forecast

Bitcoin started the current week with a positive attitude, which was the reason for the successful consolidation of the asset at around $34,000. On June 30, the coin moved to the next difficult milestone in the area of $36,600 but failed to gain a foothold above it. As a result, the coin went on correction and began the first day of July with a slight drop.

As of 11:00 UTC, Bitcoin is quoted at around $33,200. Over the past day, the asset fell by 4%, after it could not stay in the support zone at around $34,000. This scenario was indicated by the main technical indicators of the asset. On July 1, BTC fluctuates and does not show a clear trend to rise or fall. The local dynamics of the price movement of Bitcoin indicate instability and tug of war in the area from +0.5% to -0.5%. This local uncertainty scenario is aggravated by low trading volumes, which do not exceed the $29 billion mark.

Despite breaking through the key support zone, BTC found a solid bottom near the local limit of $32,200. The next main support point for Bitcoin in a downward movement will be the figure of $30,000. However, as of 11:00 UTC, the asset has pushed off from the local support level and is moving towards $34,000. At the same time, the main technical indicators indicate a clear bearish mood. The MACD indicator went beyond the red line, and the RSI indicator jumped above 80, which indicates that the asset is clearly overbought. Given all this, you should not count on the protracted growth of Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will climb above the $34,000 mark, after which it will resume fluctuations in a narrow range.



Long-term indicators indicate a change of movement and an increasing bullish mood. This is evidenced by a significant decrease in offers for Bitcoin. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on non-custodial wallets continues to grow. This suggests that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, and the local sale among medium-term users has come to naught. There is a redistribution of Bitcoins on the market. This was evidenced by a record decrease in the number of unique BTC addresses and social activity. In the medium term, this will benefit the market and Bitcoin, since most of the coins will be in the hands of long-term investors. This will help protect the market from manipulations and impulsive decisions of the retail audience. However, the downside of the situation is that at the next stage of growth, BTC will count on retail traders. This is stated by the analysts of the world's leading banks, who agree that at this stage, the interest of institutions in Bitcoin has fallen significantly.

The market is at the stage of recovery and accumulation of the necessary volumes. Given the relative calm of the news background and the positive mood of investors, we can expect an attempt to launch a bullish trend in the near future. However, for this, Bitcoin needs to jump back to the $34,000 mark and successfully test the $36,600 milestone to exit the correction corridor. Given the lack of interest on the part of institutions and record-low options for Bitcoin, it will be difficult to carry out this task without a powerful impulse.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for July 01 - 02, 2021: Sell below $35,250



In a 4-hour chart, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA, adding pressure to the strong 6/8 Murray resistance. The bias is still bearish as shown by the eagle indicator.

On June 29, the cryptocurrency was about to challenge resistance of $ 37,500, it reached a few pips below and failed to consolidate. BTC was also trading above the 200 EMA for a few hours, but the downward pressure took it back below key level of $35,000.

For some traders, this upward movement that we saw was seen as an opportunity to liquidate their losing positions or take profit, and wait for a bottom in the $30,000 zone and then buy again.

In view of the fact that Bitcoin has a strong resistance zone, it is likely that there will be a bearish movement in the next few days to the zone of $31,250.

If the panic takes hold of the market, BTC price could fall to the key support and psychological level of $25,000 that is the 4/8 of murray.

Our outlook suggests that BTC remains bearish in the near term as long as it holds below 6/8 murray. Therefore, any bounce will be an opportunity to sell with targets at $ 30,000 and $ 25,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 01 - 02, 2021
Resistance (3) 37,165
Resistance (2) 35,913
Resistance (1) 34,891

Support (1) 32,532
Support (2) 31,285
Support (3) 29,196





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH and XRP are bullish, LTC sags behind major support: Forecasts

The cryptocurrency market continues to recover from a massive collapse in mid-June. Major coins are approaching important levels and gaining volume to break out downward trend positions and further move up. Despite the growing positive sentiment, Bitcoin and altcoins are subject to local corrections and fluctuate near important levels. The total cryptocurrency capitalization sank 2% but managed to stay at $1.4 trillion.

The main altcoin expectedly slipped to the local support level around $2,100. The current correction was necessary and the cryptocurrency bounced off the intermediate support zone. Despite the bullish signals, ETH can still sink to the level of $2,000, after which it will continue to move to $2,300. However, as of 13:00 UTC, the asset has completely won back the recent fall and is quoted at $2,130. At the same time, the volume of daily trading dipped to $28.4 billion, and the local dynamics of price movement show a downward movement. At the same time, bullish signals are visible on the RSI index, which remains below the 50 mark, and the Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bullish crossover. Despite this, the coin does not show a reversal, but in the medium term, there is a chance to break through the downward sloping resistance line. This will lead to a rapid movement to the area of the $2,500 mark and further acceleration to the $3,000 - $3,300 corridor.



The Ripple token continues to move along the downward channel, showing no prospects for a breakout of the difficult level. The cryptocurrency conquered the round support level of $0.7 but rebounded to the local support zone around $0.66. Despite the lack of prospects for growth, the technical indicators of the coin indicate a possible bullish breakout. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bullish crossover in the 6K region, which could be a key factor in the breakout of the downward trend channel. In this case, the coin will continue to move towards $0.8 and, bypassing the local resistance zone, may try to break through $1.



The situation around LTC remains uncertain. The coin still slipped below the level of $140, but it sank only by $3, and buyers began to push the coin back. The technical indicators of the asset indicate the imminent success of this enterprise. The two-hour dynamics of the price movement indicate an increase in the price of the coin, and the stochastic formed a bullish intersection. The RSI index indicates that the optimal point for entering the asset has been overcome, and soon the cryptocurrency may be overbought. Despite this, the LTC/USD pair shows good daily trading volumes, which together with the local dynamics will help the asset to climb to the $140 mark.



The news background around the cryptocurrency market is beginning to stabilize. For example, the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, said that the move of mining from China would be a positive development for cryptocurrencies. The news that software company NCR and crypto investment firm NYDIG have announced a partnership became vital news for the entire community. The companies plan to open access to Bitcoin to customers of 650 US banks, which is equivalent to 24 million customers. The market continues to accumulate the necessary volumes, the space for speculation decreases, digital assets are approaching important points, which indicates an imminent attempt to launch a bullish trend.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

How to trade BTC/USD now with minimal risk

There have been no significant volatility drivers on the cryptocurrency market for over a month, apart from the Chinese ban. Therefore, globally, nothing changes from day to day, and each subsequent daily candle clearly confirms the medium-term forecast.

I will repeat this once again (the market situation leaves no other choice): the price is working out a wide sideways range between the support level at 31,082.82 (red dotted line) and resistance at 41,980.24.

In fact, someone is driving the price in the range of $30,000 - $40,000 per coin. The question is why? It is very likely that a major player, one or more, is gaining position, expecting further growth. And since the sidewall is wide, this position is probably large, it is only possible to get it at more or less favorable prices.

Hence, there is still a conclusion about the belief of large market participants in cryptocurrency, a phase of technical consolidation of the market, supported by a temporary lull.

What happens after the Chinese ban? Everyone who got scared, everyone who bought high with a shoulder, left the market. For those who are stronger and with more capital, the price below 30,000 was not allowed. We have seen this many times on unsuccessful attempts to break through the level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line).

Meanwhile, the "great mining migration" is currently happening worldwide. Analytical platform Glassnode released a fresh report today showing that the Bitcoin hash rate has stabilized after 10 consecutive days of price declines. The worst impact of China's recent crackdown on mining could go away, Glassnode said.

Also, according to Glassnode, the average Bitcoin hash rate (over a 7-day period) on Tuesday (June 29, 2021) was 90.6 EH/s, which is slightly higher than Monday (June 28, 2021), equal to 90.5 EH/s. But this data is still half the peak level reached in mid-May.

There is also information that the revenue from Bitcoin and ether mining has fallen by almost 50% over the past month. The decrease in the hash rate of the network of the two leading cryptocurrencies subsequently led to a decrease in the profitability of the miner, as the block generation time increased.

China's crackdown on crypto mining is seen by many analysts as a welcome move and believes it will help the Bitcoin network become more decentralized. Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor called China's actions a trillion-dollar mistake.

Probably, taking advantage of this situation, the calm and the low price, the big players continue to gain position. The technical picture allows us to draw two conclusions: the lateral borders 30,000 - 40,000 are strong enough, and over time, one of them will be broken.

Everything inside the corridor looks very "torn". Local levels are stitched in all directions, moreover, "where you don't poke, there is a level." As we can see, it is risky to trade inside the wide side. If you trade with small stops, they will often be wiped out. And if strong highs-lows of the corridor are taken out, they will be huge and the profit will not be worth the risk.

Therefore, I think that it is best to trade Bitcoin now with a rebound from the sideways borders at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 or a breakout, but it is not known when it will happen. Yes, it is a long time to wait for the entry point, but it is not as risky as trying to "pinch" a small profit within this range.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021