Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Positive FUD for the cryptocurrency market - Bitcoin & Ethereum



The cryptocurrency market does not feel as bad as many would like it to, but it is worth accepting this and the fact as it is.

Yesterday, the media reported the strengthening foundation of the cryptocurrency industry, which was quite strong news. So, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citibank, and hundreds of other banks are already preparing their own products based on cryptocurrencies.

What does this give us?

More than 24 million Americans will soon be able to officially buy cryptocurrencies through more than 650 banks across the country. The number of new participants will grow exponentially year after year, and it will not be so easy to dismiss the existence of such an undesirable substitute.

Why do banks do this?

The answer to this question is indecently simple, they do not want to give the possible profit from this industry to services like Coinbase, which just launched deposits in USDC tokens at 4% per annum on June 30, which is several times higher than bank rates.

Banks are afraid of the outflow of customers, and in this case they are ready to do anything to keep them.

It is worth considering a very important and strategic move: as soon as large banks start mass introduction of innovative assets, an information wave will emerge, which will be supported by the media. All this can lead to a strong strengthening of cryptocurrencies, which speculators will definitely pay attention to in short-term trading.

The second news is not so global, but it reflects how much the opinion of opponents of cryptocurrencies can change.

Billionaire George Soros' investment fund will soon start trading Bitcoin. The Soros Fund Management team has been studying digital assets for a long time, and this solution is most likely more than just an experiment.

George Soros is an American trader, financier, investor and philanthropist, and perhaps one of the most famous personalities in the financial world. Not so long ago, Soros was catching up with negative FUD* towards Bitcoin and the entire industry as a whole, and now he is considering investment strategies. I wouldn't be surprised if in the future we hear from his funds that they have impressive cryptocurrency portfolios and have already earned a lot of money.

FUD is a psychological manipulation tactic used in marketing.*

What happens on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

Nothing drastic happened regarding my article from June 29, but still, Bitcoin touched the price level of $36,675, this is a strengthening of more than 25% since the breakout of the support level of $30,000 on June 22.

Our strategy is still focused on a sideways move in the range of $30,000 / $41,500, since a breakdown and holding the price beyond these levels can indicate a subsequent move in the market.

As for the positive information background described above, this is the foundation that will bear fruit in the future, unless, of course, the rhetoric changes.

After a prolonged weakening, Ethereum managed to partially restore the positions lost in the market, strengthening by about 32% in 4.5 days. Please note that the local minimum of May 23 - $1,728, which has not succumbed to the onslaught of sellers, serves as a pivot point.

In this case, if we are considering an upward development, then first the quotes should settle above the $2,400 level, which will give more confidence in the upward course. The biggest price changes are expected after the price is kept above the $3,000 mark. In this case, a sequential stage of recovery of the upward trend may begin.






Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 01, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has now retraced lower towards sub $33,000 levels from recent peak above $36,600. Traders are advised to initiate fresh long positions again with risk below $28,000 mark. The crypto is trading very close to its fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally between $31,000 and $36,600 levels respectively and probability remains high for a bullish bounce here.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $33,290 levels at this point in writing and is expected to drop through $32,500 levels in the near term. If the above unfolds accordingly, bulls might be back again in control and stronger than before. Immediate support is now seen around $30,000 mark, while resistance stays at $42,600 levels respectively.

A push above $36,600 would accelerate towards $43,000 levels in the weeks to follow. Also note that potential remains to push through $48,000/49,000 levels as well before producing a meaningful retracement. It is good to remain long until prices stay above $28,000 levels, going forward.


Trading plan:
Remain long now, stop @ 28,000, target is 43,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum rejection at important resistance trend line.

Ethereum as expected tested the major resistance at $2,300 and is now getting rejected. Our expectations as we explained in our last post, was to see price reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement and get rejected.



Red line - resistance

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements

Ethereum's made another attempt to break above the red downward sloping resistance trend line. Price also reached the 50% retracement of the decline from $2,880. This upward bounce from $1,700 could very well be over and a new downward move might be around the corner. As long as price is below the red resistance trend line, then it remains vulnerable to another sell off below $1,700. If price manages to break above the resistance trend line then we could see a move higher towards $2,435 and $2,620. Only a break above $2,900 will confirm that a major low is in.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Soros Fund Management, the private investment firm of billionaire George Soros, intends to trade bitcoin as part of wider digital asset exploration.

According to two sources familiar with the case, Dawn Fitzpatrick, CIO Soros Fund Management, has given the go-ahead to trading "bitcoin and possibly other cryptocurrencies" in the past few weeks.

People who have commented on this subject with anonymity stated that Dawn Fitzpatrick and her team have been researching the cryptocurrency industry for some time and that the current venture is definitely more than just a cursory overview of the market.

In addition, Fitzpatrick is also said to be talking about the possibility of investing in well-known blockchain-based organizations; however, the company did not disclose which companies it may be referring to.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair was capped at 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $36,610, the bears managed to push the prices back under the technical support seen at $33,602. The momentum is decreasing and it is hovering around the neutral level of fifty points. Any violation of the level of $32,565 will likely push the momentum back into the negative territory. The key mid-term technical support is still located at $29,187.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,645
WR2 - $39,211
WR1 - $35,772

Weekly Pivot - $32,390
WS1 - $29,147
WS2 - $25,680
WS3 - $22,298


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 1, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
In the second half of this year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will assess the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies (including bitcoin).

However, it is not about the bank's investment plans, but about whether investing in cryptocurrencies by individuals and entities represents a risk for the entire financial system.

In order to investigate the potential risk, the Central Bank of Russia wants to collect data from fifteen popular companies, organizations and banks. Among them there will be: Tinkoff Bank, Sberbank, Visa, Mastercard and Western Union.

By the way, the bank will want to check the interest in equity investments on the part of non-resident investors. The said report is to be prepared before the end of November 2021.

The need to conduct a risk assessment is associated with increasing criticism from local legislators and entrepreneurs. They are dissatisfied with the position of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation towards the entire cryptocurrency industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,228, but the rally was capped and the Shooting Star candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally. Currently, the market is going lower towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $2,086. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short term bullish outlook for ETH, but the bulls must break through the retracement level in order to test the high at $2,639.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,667
WR2 - $2,446
WR1 - $2,091

Weekly Pivot - $1,898
WS1 - $1,514
WS2 - $1,323
WS3 - $946


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Cash Upside Correction To Continue!

BCH/USD is trading in the red at 505.96 level and it seems vulnerable to drop again. It could come back to test and retest the immediate support levels before jumping higher. Bitcoin Cash drops right now as the price of Bitcoin slips lower.

The crypto is into a support zone that's why we could search for new long opportunities. Though, we have to wait for confirmation before jumping into a long position.


BCH/USD SEEMS UNDECIDED!


BCH/USD failed to resume its rebound and now it could come back down to test and retest the weekly pivot point (474.79) and the lower median line (lml).

Staying above these levels could indicate that BCH/USD could still increase. Only dropping below the $445 could invalidate a bullish scenario.

Its failure to reach and retest the descending pitchfork's lower median line (LML) signaled a potential growth. Technically, I believe that a bullish fly above 558.44 and through the R1 (562.51) could activate a larger growth.


FORECAST!
Buy BCH/USD after jumping and stabilizing above 558.44. Also, we may have a buying opportunity if the price makes a false breakdown with great separation below the weekly pivot point (474.79) and through the lower median line (lml).

A major bullish engulfing or any other bullish reversal pattern printed on the immediate downside obstacles could announce a new leg higher.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Could the Bitcoin ban in China have a positive outlook for BTC in the future?



It is reliably known that one of the main catalysts for the fall in the price of Bitcoin is the ban on mining, trading, and the work of various crypto platforms and over-the-counter brokers in China. However, many analysts are confident that the relocation of miners from China, for example, to the United States of America, in particular to Texas, is taking place, and this is the future.

Michael Saylor has already gathered a consultation with various miners about improving mining for the environment, and this meeting has very positive far-reaching prospects. The notification from the State Council of China on May 21 that the strictest measures will be taken regarding the ban on bitcoin mining, plunged the crypto market into shock.

Because of this, Bitcoin and other altcoins have fallen sharply in price. After that, many provinces of China, including Xinjiang and Qinghai, imposed bans on bitcoin mining. China does not want to see a digital currency that cannot be controlled, and it is also against shadow transactions and money laundering.

Nick Carter, co-founder of Coin Metrics, commented on the news from China. Carter shared the opinion that Bitcoin is dangerous to China because it was an antagonist of the digital yuan. In addition, he said that the prevention of uncontrolled capital outflow may be one of the reasons for these bans. The Chinese sanctions will be a big victory for the decentralization of Bitcoin, however. Texas is already ready to accept miners in the shortest possible time.

Brandon Arvanagi, one of the former engineers at the Gemini crypto exchange, expressed a similar opinion to Nick Carter in an interview with Bloomberg. While Arvanagi said the news of the ban from China was unexpected, he compared the country's anti-bitcoin sentiment to Facebook and Google's bans. Arvanagi made it clear that Bitcoin is the best store of value in the history of mankind.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: slow progress towards the target and good news

Today is a day of information lull and technical rollback with elements of uncertainty for Bitcoin. Although, so far it is not scary.

Yesterday, the resistance level of the narrow consolidation range 31,082.82 - 34,708.27 was broken, the price consolidated above it. This is a strong mirror-like horizontal, a rollback after a breakdown is not excluded. Today's daily candle is bearish, and although it is not closed yet, the price is above the now support at 34,708.27. Probably, a local moment of truth will come soon: yesterday's breakdown was false or there are still chances for growth.

Because of this, I am not changing my forecast yet, there are no grounds for this. If the support of 34,708.27 holds, the price will continue to grow towards the nearest target of 38,610.88 (red dotted line). An alternative scenario is a return to the sideways at 31,082.82 - 34,708.27.

While we wait for clarity on the technical picture, let's talk about the good news. It becomes difficult to ignore cryptocurrencies even for skeptical banks. It became known that about 24 million customers of 650 American banks and credit unions will have direct access to the purchase of Bitcoin. These institutions have entered into a partnership with the National Cash Register and NYDIG, a leading Bitcoin technology and financial services firm.

Now banks will be able to offer crypto trading to customers directly through NCR mobile payment applications. For transactions with digital coins, banks will no longer have to adhere to complex regulatory conditions for storing cryptocurrencies for customers.

NCR data show that the need for such a solution is associated with the growing demand from customers of banks and credit unions. Both of them regularly lost money, as users transferred them to trade on cryptocurrency exchanges.

Of course, most banks have warned customers about the risks. But the increase in the number of money transfers to trading platforms, such as Coinbase, forced us to switch to providing these services within the country. Now banks will earn money from transaction fees and offer investment advisory services to interested clients.

Experts note that many of these banks have seen that one of the biggest outflows from their depositors' accounts is the transfer of money from the bank to exchanges such as Coinbase.

But that's not all. NYDIG has revealed further ambitious plans for the future, which include the possibility of buying Bitcoins in the United States through more than 80,000 ATMs. This company has great ambitions, which means that soon cryptocurrencies will penetrate even more into the lives of retail investors.

Meanwhile, major players continue to accumulate Bitcoins, waiting for the price to continue to rise after a period of consolidation.

Technically, BTC/USD still has the potential for medium-term growth within a wide range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Major altcoins are adjusted ahead of the next phase of recovery

The cryptocurrency market started the current week on a positive note. Bitcoin managed to gain a foothold above the $34,000 mark and has already made the first attempt to retest $36,000. The altcoin market has also resumed growth, and cryptocurrencies have approached their usual positions. However, on June 30, the coins took a short pause for correction, which led to a 2% drop in the market to the $1.4 trillion mark.

The Ethereum indicators have overcome the $2,000 mark and successfully gained a foothold above it. Over the past day, the coin has attempted to consolidate above the $2,200 mark, but failed. As a result, ETH has fallen in price by 4% over the past day and is quoted in the area of $2,130 as of 13:00 UTC, where strong support for buyers has been created. Despite the obvious bullish trend of the asset, an excessively wide triangle was formed on the cryptocurrency charts. This will provoke a technical correction over the next few days, after which the asset will push off from the support zone around $2,000 and meet the hard fork in the best conditions. In the short term, ETH is waiting for a small pullback, as indicated by the local dynamics of price movement. In addition, the divergence on the RSI indicator and the red zone on the MACD indicator also indicates a reduction in quotes. However, in the medium-term analysis, we can count on the resumption of the growth of the cryptocurrency price after a small correction.



The Ripple token formed a support zone around $0.657 and tried to jump to a retest of $0.72, but failed. The cryptocurrency tried to find a support zone in the area of $0.701, but the pressure of sellers squeezed the coin out of the round mark. Over the past day, XRP/USD has fallen by 8% and retains a negative price movement dynamics (- 2%). In addition, the MACD indicator also went into the red zone, beyond the 0 mark, which indicates a bearish mood. The RSI indicators also indicate a sharp drop in interest, which may recover soon. Taking into account the analysis of technical indicators and horizontal charts, the Ripple token can break through the support level at $0.650 and launch a retest of the key position in the area of $0.601.



LTC/USD quotes also underwent a correction, but the altcoin managed to stand at the main support level around $140. The cryptocurrency began to feel the pressure of sellers when approaching the important level of $150. Over the past few hours, LTC has resumed a local downward movement, arranged by sellers with the help of large trading volumes. The local dynamics of the price movement indicate a further drop in indicators (-1%). The reduction in the quotes of the LTC/USD pair occurred after the RSI indicator sank over 30, and the MACD indicators fell into the red zone. It is likely that the cryptocurrency will break through the support level at $140 and will set aside the $120 mark.



Despite the local correction of major altcoins, positive sentiment prevails in the cryptocurrency market. It is likely that the crypto market will soon be ready to try to launch a bullish trend. The main cryptocurrencies are approaching important levels, when they break through, a rally to spring highs can begin. In the absence of powerful negative impulses, the market will find the necessary moment to move up in the first week of July.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for XRP/USD (Ripple), for June 30, 2021: Buy above $0.65



XRP / USD is trading within an uptrend channel on 4-hour charts, above the 21 SMA and above the 3/8 Murray, showing a bullish bias, with targets in the zone of resistance of 0.7812.

Since falling to the low of 0.51 on June 22, XRP has recovered more than 30%. Now it has settled above the moving average, adding a bullish outlook in the medium term.

We could expect a retracement towards the 0.6539 area. There is the SMA of 21 and the bottom of the bullish channel. If a technical bounce occurs at this level, the next bullish wave could push it towards the level of the 200 EMA located at 0.80, with an increase in a profit percentage of 35%.

If XRP consolidates below 0.65, the next 3/8 murray support could be a good point to buy. However, this would mean that the market could face a new bearish wave. A bearish cycle could occur again in the zone of 0.51 that coincides with June 22 low.

Our recommendation is to buy above 0.65. The eagle indicator is in the overbought zone. We expect a correction before the price resumes the uptrend.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 30, 2021
Resistance (3) 0.8023
Resistance (2) 0.7847
Resistance (1) 0.7449

Support (1) 0.6508
Support (2) 0.5965
Support (3) 0.5567




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
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