Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

The list of crazy predictions from crypto billionaires continues



The fundamental background for the entire cryptocurrency market remains extremely negative in the last two months. Many experts and analysts believe that Bitcoin may drop to $19,000 - $24,000 levels in the short term. However, there are other opinions as well. For example, one of the world's most famous crypto investors and billionaire Tyler Winklevoss, who is also the head of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, considers bitcoin "gold 2.0" and predicts it will grow to $500,000 in the next 5 years. This forecast at least has a time frame, unlike all other forecasts, where their authors simply said that "Bitcoin will rise in price to [any value]." Tyler Winklevoss also answered the question why he and his brother don't sell their bitcoins: "We still think it's really early," he said. "We think bitcoin is gold 2.0. It will disrupt gold so its market cap has to be $10 trillion or more, because that's the market cap of gold." The head of Gemini also noted that the current levels of value of bitcoin are good for new investments. "At a $10 trillion market cap we think one bitcoin will be worth $500,000 and we think that could happen inside this decade ... We're HODLers until at least $500,000." said one of the crypto billionaire brothers.

Meanwhile, the management company Ruffer Investment announced that it sold its bitcoin coins. The company believes that the "speculative frenzy" began and explained its decision by this process. Duncan MacInnes, investment director of the company, believes that it is better to observe the process from the outside than "from the trenches." Earlier it was reported that the company earned about 1.1 billion dollars on investments in bitcoin, which it made in 2020, having invested 600 million. Recall also that Tesla began to sell its bitcoin coins, which provoked a fall in the rate of the first cryptocurrency. According to some rumors, Tesla continued to sell bitcoin after the release of the financial report for the first quarter. However, this will become known for certain only after the release of the report for the second quarter. Thus, it cannot be concluded that large institutional investors have again massively started buying the main cryptocurrency.



Technically, bitcoin quotes moved away from the $30,500 level on the 4-hour timeframe, but at the moment, they rested on the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, given the "swing-like" movement of recent weeks, it can be assumed that Bitcoin will resume its fall in the near future. From our point of view, the fundamental background has not improved enough to speak of growth to $40,000 or $42,000. The target of a possible fall is the level of $30,500.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD remains trapped inside a bearish short-term channel

XRP/USD does not follow Bitcoin's upward move and remains inside the short-term bearish channel. Price remains below the key resistance at $1,06 and above the key support at $0.65-$0.75.



Red lines- bearish channel

Red rectangle- resistance

Green rectangle -support

XRP/USD bulls need to recapture $0.91 in order to exit the bearish channel and push price towards the major resistance of $1.06. Inability to do so will bring price lower towards $0.75 as a rejection at the upper channel boundary, will push price towards the lower channel boundary. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. No change in trend. No sign of a reversal yet.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Analysis for 10 June, 2021



Bitcoin price analysis highlights BTC bull's unanimous action to defend $33,000.
Failure to break down past $33,000 ensured Bitcoin surges close to $38,000.
Critical technical indicators gradually improve, validating Bitcoin's bull run.

During today's early morning trading session, Bitcoin soared to hit an intraday high of $38,250. The milestone comes when the global banking supervisor, Basel Committee, proposed new measures for financial institutions, indicating it is ready to take Bitcoin seriously.

The last few days have seen Bitcoin register significant price rebounds. Going by the recent price surge, crypto pundits argue that the short-term down surge from $64,800 might be complete. This is due to the failure of the king crypto to break down past the $31,000 support level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is exchanging hands at around $37,400 butwith an immediate focus of $39,500. Interestingly, the immediate focus happens to be Bitcoin's immediate resistance level.

If the crypto coin breaks above this level, Bitcoin would be free to rally towards the 38.2 percent Fibo retracement region that ranges between $43,970 to $64,830. If all things remain constant, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin could surge towards the 61.8 percent Fibo retracement level at around $51,930.

According to Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, critical technical indicators validate the ongoing bullish momentum. For instance, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence recently turned bullish, authenticating Bitcoin's recent surge from $33,000 to $38,000. At present, the MACD line is teetering above the signal line, indicating Bitcoin is in for further upward price movements. It is worth noting that the more Bitcoin remains in the positive zone, the more investors will be encouraged to buy the coin, thereby extending the coin's bullish outlook.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin), for June 10 - 11, 2021: Range



In the early hours of the American session, BTC / USD (Bitcoin) is trading above the 2/8 murray level around the 37,500 zone, its highest level in more than a week. When it reached the low of 31,250, it continued with an upward rebound, which would now be facing a top of the technical pattern.

On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market is losing the optimism that characterizes it, as some traders and investors believe that the price of Bitcoin could fall below the psychological level of $30,000

On the other hand, at the technical level we notice a strong consolidation above 1/8 of a murray, it has left a triple bottom. This is a sign that the market does not intend to leave this price level. It is believed to be a good price of BTC. Therefore, we can buy with targets at the 200 EMA around 41,617 in the short term.

If you look at the chart, Bitcoin has been trading within a range rectangle between 31,150 and 38,500. It means that if BTC consolidates above this level, there could be a strong bullish momentum to the zone of 4/8 murray, which coincides with the psychological level of $50,000.

Our recommendation is to buy the Bitcoin above 2/8 of murray and if it makes a technical bounce to the 21 SMA around 34,152, with targets at 41,617 and 50,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 10 – 11, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,755
Resistance (2) 39,343
Resistance (1) 37,797

Support (1) 35,085
Support (2) 33,483
Support (3) 31,114




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH/USD Still Under Pressure

Ethereum increased a little from 2,306.02 low and now is located at 2,542.47 level. Unfortunately, the selling pressure remains high as the price stands below strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD moves somehow sideways in the short term, so we have to wait for something before deciding to go long. Personally, I believe it's risky to go short from here as the crypto market could increase again after the last drop.


ETH/USD UNDECIDED!


ETH/USD is trapped between the weekly pivot point (2,623.81) and the S1 (2,359.30). The selling pressure is high as long as it stays below the downtrend line. So, only a potential valid breakout above it could announce a potential growth.

The price could drop if the price of Bitcoin drops as well. Technically, the price could decrease a little to test and retest some support levels before really developing a new leg higher.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!
Dropping and closing below the S1 (2,359.30) could signal a further decline towards 2,040.62.

On the other hand, closing above the pivot point (2,623.81) could signal a potential upside breakout through the downtrend line. A new higher high, a bullish closure above 2,850 could signal a breakout through the 3,000 level.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Chinese authorities have started to kick miners out!



During the penultimate trading day of the week, Bitcoin hit the $38,000 per coin level, which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and rebounded from it. It is very clearly seen in the illustration below that each subsequent peak in value is lower than the previous one. We even formed a small downward trend line, from which the price also bounced yesterday. Recall that these are signs of a bearish trend. In March-April of this year, we have repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that the "bullish" trend was coming to an end on the same basis. As a result, the upward trend ended. Now, everything goes to the fact that today or tomorrow (the cryptocurrency market is open on weekends) there will be a new drop in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will be able to save itself from another fall only if it manages to gain a foothold above the trend line in the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, a wide variety of news is coming to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that in China, the authorities want to completely ban the mining of cryptocurrencies. It looks like this process has already begun. In Qinghai Province of China, the Industry and Information Technology Department has instructed all mining companies to cease operations. It is reported that the Department will strictly monitor any activity of large computer companies so that they do not try to disguise the mining of cryptocurrencies as a legal business. The same decision was previously made in the provinces of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In the Sichuan province, miners were given time until September 2021. During this period, miners of digital assets must also completely scale back their cryptocurrency mining activities. The Chinese authorities explain their actions by concern about the use of electricity and the need to save it.

But in India, the country's authorities, on the contrary, have revised their attitude towards cryptocurrencies and, instead of a complete ban, they want to legalize the cryptocurrency sphere. Bitcoin could become a legal asset class with the Securities and Exchange Board overseeing its regulation. Thus, the fundamental background of recent days for bitcoin is controversial, and news from China is more important, since it is there that most of the world's mining capacities are concentrated. This does not mean that all Chinese miners will simply cease their activities. They will probably move the equipment to countries that are more friendly to mining. However, this means that for a certain time, the network hash rate will drop down again. Moreover, the unfriendly attitude of the Chinese authorities towards bitcoin can discourage many investors from the cryptocurrency segment. So, it is not the time to celebrate just yet because of the news from India alone. In fact, nothing has yet been legalized there. The overall fundamental background remains more negative than positive.



In technical terms, Bitcoin has shown an increase of $7,500 in the last 4 days. However, this does not mean anything special for Bitcoin. A rebound from the trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci level could put Bitcoin back on the downward trend. In this case, the quotes will again tend to the support level of $30,500, which last time did not reach $500. We still consider the corrective scenario as the main one and believe that in the coming months the quotes may fall below the level of $30,500.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

JPMorgan warns about bitcoin bear market

Bitcoin continues to recover from its recent lows, logged earlier this week after the FBI investigation and the ban of the Chinese authorities on mining in some regions of the country.

Nevertheless, the world's central banks continue to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy and markets in general, as well as introduce capital requirements for banks working with cryptocurrency.



The recent announcement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is another sign that the market is rapidly changing, prompting central banks to adapt. This is why they have shifted their focus to the crypto market. Strict capital controls are not the goal of the regulator. It does not intend to tie the hands of financial institutions planning to work with crypto assets. On the contrary, it is taking the fast-growing cryptocurrency market seriously and is preparing the banking sector to adhere to it.

In the statement, the regulator also expressed concern about the risks to the financial stability of many countries associated with the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency and the possibility of money laundering and other criminal schemes. However, investors are already tired of hearing this from politicians, who do not stop voicing their concerns about potential risks.

In a recent interview, Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren called the cryptocurrency market "The Wild West". She said that digital currency is not the best way to buy and sell things, nor is it a good investment. Bitcoin can only lead to an ecological disaster because of the way it is mined. Elon Musk also voiced the same concerns last month, but he could not give proof of it.

As for positive news, the central banks of Switzerland and France have joined forces with commercial banks to experiment with digital currency. UBS Group AG, Credit Suisse Group AG, Accenture Plc, and Natixis SA are among the private-sector players involved. The project was launched under the auspices of the Innovation Center at the Bank for International Settlements. The project will consider international settlements for two digital currencies of central banks, including the exchange for the digital euro CBDC. "The G20 has made enhancing cross-border payments a priority. This experiment contributes to this work by exploring how wholesale CBDC could enhance speed, efficiency, and transparency in cross-border use cases."

Meanwhile, analysts at JPMorgan found signs of bitcoin moving into a bear market. Experts have recorded a sharp decline in demand from large investors of the CME exchange. It is not surprising that after such high volatility in May, the number of traders who want to buy cryptocurrency has decreased. According to analysts, a decline in the bitcoin dominance index is a warning signal. "We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market," JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin's relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

In my recent review, I drew attention to this problem and talked a lot about the high probability of growth in the capitalization of ether. Its resilience to market volatility may be the reason that the second-largest digital token could one day overtake bitcoin in market value. Bitcoin is currently more than twice the size of ether but the gap has narrowed by about $350 billion after the biggest sell-off seen in the middle of this month. While bitcoin notched the worst drop in its history, the sell-off of ether was not as large as many feared. It seems that investors are reviewing their attitude to this trading instrument, especially given its recent growth.



As for the technical analysis, BTC managed to bounce back from a low of $31,000. So, now it needs to break above the important resistance level of $36,300. If BTC fails to break above this range in the near future, then bears are likely to take the upper hand. It will eventually lead to a breakout of the $31,000 level. If so, BTC may decline to the lows of $25,800 and $21,700. If bitcoin consolidates above $36,300, then bulls will gain momentum. Then, BTC is expected to break above the resistance level of $41,100, which has not been reached this month. If it manages to break this level, it may well test the highs of $46,700 and $52,000.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
After the president of El Salvador announced that bitcoin was adopted as legal tender, the Indian Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) intends to reconsider the current cryptocurrency ban and initiate cryptocurrency regulation oversight processes.

India's top cryptocurrency industry leaders are negotiating with the finance ministry on a new set of regulatory rules, and the ministry is now looking at it.

According to the cited source, the new bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies will probably be discussed by parliament for discussion during the monsoon season, i.e. between June and October this year.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) again banned lenders from working with companies whose activities are related to virtual currencies - mainly crypto exchanges due to the high volatility of cryptocurrency prices.

However, El Salvador legalizing bitcoin as a tender and other Latin American countries that wish to follow suit may have prompted Indian regulators to consider changing their stance.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has been capped at the 50% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $2,575. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,639, but the bears are still pushing the prices lower. As long as the price is still under the level of $2,914, the bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is still seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,628
WR2 - $3,236
WR1 - $2,995

Weekly Pivot - $2,426
WS1 - $2,383
WS2 - $2,000
WS3 - $1,765


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021