Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

The list of crazy predictions from crypto billionaires continues



The fundamental background for the entire cryptocurrency market remains extremely negative in the last two months. Many experts and analysts believe that Bitcoin may drop to $19,000 - $24,000 levels in the short term. However, there are other opinions as well. For example, one of the world's most famous crypto investors and billionaire Tyler Winklevoss, who is also the head of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, considers bitcoin "gold 2.0" and predicts it will grow to $500,000 in the next 5 years. This forecast at least has a time frame, unlike all other forecasts, where their authors simply said that "Bitcoin will rise in price to [any value]." Tyler Winklevoss also answered the question why he and his brother don't sell their bitcoins: "We still think it's really early," he said. "We think bitcoin is gold 2.0. It will disrupt gold so its market cap has to be $10 trillion or more, because that's the market cap of gold." The head of Gemini also noted that the current levels of value of bitcoin are good for new investments. "At a $10 trillion market cap we think one bitcoin will be worth $500,000 and we think that could happen inside this decade ... We're HODLers until at least $500,000." said one of the crypto billionaire brothers.

Meanwhile, the management company Ruffer Investment announced that it sold its bitcoin coins. The company believes that the "speculative frenzy" began and explained its decision by this process. Duncan MacInnes, investment director of the company, believes that it is better to observe the process from the outside than "from the trenches." Earlier it was reported that the company earned about 1.1 billion dollars on investments in bitcoin, which it made in 2020, having invested 600 million. Recall also that Tesla began to sell its bitcoin coins, which provoked a fall in the rate of the first cryptocurrency. According to some rumors, Tesla continued to sell bitcoin after the release of the financial report for the first quarter. However, this will become known for certain only after the release of the report for the second quarter. Thus, it cannot be concluded that large institutional investors have again massively started buying the main cryptocurrency.



Technically, bitcoin quotes moved away from the $30,500 level on the 4-hour timeframe, but at the moment, they rested on the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, given the "swing-like" movement of recent weeks, it can be assumed that Bitcoin will resume its fall in the near future. From our point of view, the fundamental background has not improved enough to speak of growth to $40,000 or $42,000. The target of a possible fall is the level of $30,500.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 10, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Just days after the world's most populous nation blocked social media influencer crypto accounts, all Chinese search engines stopped showing search results for Binance, Huobi, and OKEx.

According to a Chinese journalist using the pseudonym Wu Blockchain, local search engines (such as Baidu and Sogou) blocked queries for three of the most popular digital asset trading platforms. These are Binance, Huobi, and OKEx.

The journalist also noted that the most popular social media platforms, such as Weibo and Zhihu, did the same. Users are unable to search for the three exchanges in either Chinese or English. While the country has taken action against the cryptocurrency industry on numerous occasions recently, it appears to be Baidu's first such initiative.

The situation takes place just a few days after Weibo blocked the accounts of famous figures related to the cryptocurrency industry.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has made a new local low at the level of $2,308 and then bounced 50% towards the level of $2,575. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,639. As long as the price is still under the level of $2,914, the bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is still seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,628
WR2 - $3,236
WR1 - $2,995

Weekly Pivot - $2,426
WS1 - $2,383
WS2 - $2,000
WS3 - $1,765


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 10, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
In Wednesday's tweet, Bukele said he instructed Mynor Gil, president of state-owned electricity company LaGeo, to make it easier for miners to mine BTC. So El Salvador will mine Bitcoin using "very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, emission-free energy" from domestic volcanoes. The company operates the only two geothermal power plants in El Salvador, located in the Ahuachapan and Berlin regions. However, it plans to build two new facilities in San Vicente and Chinameca.

"I've just instructed the president of @LaGeoSV (our state-owned geothermal electric company), to put up a plan to offer facilities for #Bitcoin mining with very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, 0 emissions energy from our volcanos (...) "

More than half of the country's energy comes from renewable energy sources. The power of geothermal energy is over 200 megawatts. It is worth noting here that there are as many as 23 active volcanoes in El Salvador. However, reports suggest that El Salvador's geothermal energy potential is closer to 644 MW, meaning LaGeo currently uses around 31% of its available energy production. According to data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, Bitcoin consumes over 116.7 terawatt hours of electricity per year.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD market still trades under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794, so bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish.The recent bounce from the level of $31,017 had broken the technical resistance located at the level of $34,834 already and the bulls are currently testing the trend line resistance around the level of $37,500. Any violation of this line would likely lead to another wave up towards the supply zone. On the other hand, the next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701 and the first attempt to test this level had been made as the bears had pushed the price below the $33,000 towards the technical support at $32,156 (May 23rd low).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $43,458
WR2 - $41,521
WR1 - $38,273

Weekly Pivot - $36,222
WS1 - $33,131
WS2 - $30,800
WS3 - $27,577


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is finally gaining support and is immediately growing by $6,000!



During the third trading day of the week, Bitcoin gained $2,600. On the one hand, such growth can hardly be called trend-forming. Simply put, the quotes only moved (and not far from) their minimums. On the other hand, this growth could be provided by a favorable fundamental background, which has not existed for a long time. Yesterday, it became known that a large management company Victory Capital ($157 billion under management) wants to enter the cryptocurrency market. It announced the creation of a special fund, which will be engaged in investing in digital assets. It is not yet known about the timing of the start of the project, however, the markets reacted positively to this information, as they were simply tired of the daily disappointing news from China, the United States, or personally from Elon Musk and Donald Trump. At the same time, Shiller, who won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics, believes that the term "bubble" that modern economists use to refer to any market that expands too much is not suitable for defining what is happening with Bitcoin. According to Shiller, the "bubble" always inevitably bursts and nothing remains after it. In the case of bitcoin, it is better to use the word "trend". This word best reflects the meaning of Shiller's idea of the word "fashion". In other words, when in 2020 surplus money began to flow to the markets due to various programs to stimulate the economy and budget assistance, bitcoin became "fashionable" for a certain time. Investors needed to invest cash somewhere, which led to strong growth in the cryptocurrency and stock market. However, if the "bubble" bursts and the asset collapses to zero, then in the case of a "trend" the asset becomes more expensive and cheaper at different periods of time, which depends only on the mood of investors, traders, and their capabilities. Basically, this is exactly what has been happening with Bitcoin in the last 10-12 years. We have seen strong bullish trends more than once, which ended in a fall of 80-90%. However, Bitcoin did not disappear or die. It was underground for several years exactly until the next "trend". Most likely, it will be so this time. Despite the fact that bitcoin rose in price yesterday, this is just one day. For Bitcoin, $5-6 thousand of movement is not much. The news from Victory Capital is, of course, upbeat, but recall that there are many other important topics for the cryptocurrency community at this time. If, for example, tomorrow it becomes known that China prohibits mining completely or some other negative news arrives, then Bitcoin can just as easily and simply return back to the levels of $32,000 - $33,000.



Technically, bitcoin stopped falling for a while and recovered to the level of $37,000 per coin. However, the illustration clearly shows that each subsequent local peak in value is lower than the previous one. Simply put, bulls cannot even update the previous local high. This suggests that today or tomorrow, we will face a new drop back to the area of $32,000 - $33,000 or even lower, which is to the support level of $30,500.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin), for June 09 - 10, 2021: Buy above $35,000



After the American session opened, the leading cryptocurrency BTC / USD is trading at the price of $ 35,096, having found strong support at 1/8 of a murray around $ 31,250. It is now located above the SMA of 21 and below a bearish channel that could put some pressure on Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin falls below 35,000 again given that the SMA of 21 is located there, there could be a bearish cycle again and a test the 1/8 murray support around 31,000.

Investors are still very nervous and any downward movement could assure them to stop buying and liquidating their Bitcoins. That could produce some downward pressure. The BTC psychological barrier is located in the 30,000 zone. This level is now the floor of the market. In the future, if this level is broken, the price could quickly fall to the level of $ 25,000.

As long as BTC / USD remains above the 30,000 level, there could be some technical rebound. To subdue the downward pressure, the price should consolidate above the $ 35,000 level. Only on such condition, the market will revive optimism, so the price could reach up to the 37,500 resistance zone and up to the 200 EMA located at $42,189.

Our recommendation is to buy BTC above the 21 SMA around 35,000, with targets at 37,500 and 42,189. The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal and the technical bounce is likely to continue.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 09 – 10, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,755
Resistance (2) 38,804
Resistance (1) 36,434

Support (1) 33,483
Support (2) 31,492
Support (3) 29,456




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Important back test of previous support now resistance by Bitcoin.

After breaking down and out of the triangle pattern, Bitcoin made a low around $31,000 and is now bouncing higher. This bounce is very important for two reasons. This is a back test of the break down area. Price broke out of the triangle pattern once it fell below $35,000. This was once support but now resistance. This back test will confirm or cancel the bearish signal that was give with the triangle breakdown.



Red lines- triangle pattern

Blue rectangle- resistance, previous support

Black line -trend line resistance

Bitcoin is below the triangle pattern, below the key resistance of $38,000-$39,000 and below the black downward sloping resistance trend line. Trend remains bearish despite the current bounce. However this bounce could unfold into a false break down if price breaks above $38,000-$39,000. If the downward move to $31,000 was a trap, we will see resistance at $39,000 break and price push towards $45,000-$50,000. If price gets rejected around $35,000, I expect price to fall towards $23,000-$15,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

RIPPLE analysis for 9 June

Ripple price analysis highlights XRP's failure to hit the $0.9 price level.
Despite securing support at around $0.78, Ripple appears to be on a freefall.
Critical technical indicators turn bearish.



Since the beginning of the month, the Ripple movement appears to have adopted a bearish trend. The cross-border money transfer crypto-asset plunged from a high of $1.71 to $0.65 on May 23 before recovering to highs of $1.1 on June 3.

Ripple seems to be recovering lost ground from its recent down surge that saw the crypto lose a significant amount of value. Due to the slight recovery, Ripple is exhibiting slight reversal signals in the bearish outlook it has been since the beginning of June. At the time of writing, Ripple is exchanging hands at around $0.86.

During yesterday's analysis, the market was awash with news of Donald Trump's skeptical sentiments about cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, likening them to a scam. The former president's actions not only dented the crypto market but pushed Ripple price action further away from the $1 mark. Fortunately, the cross-border token appears to have managed to recover some of its losses during today's early morning trading session.

Today's early morning trading session saw the crypto coin have a choppy start that saw a price reversal to a mid-afternoon intraday low of $0.78 before finding support. On looking at the 24-hour price chart, it is evident Ripple broke down past the 62 percent Fibo retracement level at $0.86 and the first significant support level at around $0.811 before finding support.

At present, the path with little barriers for Ripple is downwards. Therefore, if the crypto asset gets support at either $0.78 or at $0.8, Ripple bulls can get an opportunity to restart an upward price movement. However, in case of another significant price dip, the crypto asset could find itself settling close to its $0.65 primary support line, attained in May.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Carl Icahn wants to invest a billion in Bitcoin



Many large investors continue to think about new investments in cryptocurrency while bitcoin continues to decline at a slow pace. However, it is only to speculate. The fact is that according to Jurrien Timmer, who is the head of economic research at Fidelity Investments, the fall of bitcoin can end in the range between $ 30,000 and $ 23,000. "For me, the drop from $ 65,000 seems incomplete. The fifth wave is looming up to the$ 30,000 mark or even $ 23,000. We will find out soon, but in any case, I believe that most of the way down is already passed," Timmer said. Earlier, a similar forecast was voiced by the chief strategist of the investment bank JPMorgan Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. He noted that bitcoin might fall to the level of $ 24,000. Thus, if you believe these forecasts, it may be time to purchase the main cryptocurrency. I want to note right away that we do not think that in a month or two, the "bullish" trend will begin to recover. We believe that bitcoin may generally fall to $ 6-10 thousand per coin in the context of the next couple of years.

However, there is no talk of such a large-scale drop in the near future, so large investors are looking at purchases in the region of $ 23,000 - $ 30,000. For example, the founder of Icahn Enterprises, billionaire Carl Icahn, announced his large-scale plans to invest in "digital gold." Icahn, who has previously criticized bitcoin, now considers it a good means of saving. "I don't currently own cryptocurrencies, and I don't think they are worth buying right now. I am studying how my company can seriously participate in this," said the head of Icahn Enterprises. Icahn also believes that cryptocurrencies are becoming more popular due to the inflation of the US currency. When asked how much his company could invest in bitcoin, the answer was: "A billion dollars, a billion and a half dollars, something like that. I can't say for sure." Thus, it seems that bitcoin still needs to fall in price to count on at least a relatively strong growth. We believe that above the level of $ 43,000, it will now be physically difficult for Bitcoin to leave. However, if we assume that the quotes will fall to the mark of $ 24,000 per coin, it is possible to start a new round of growth with $ 35,000 - $ 43,000. Above, we do not expect bitcoin until at least the end of 2021.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple Found Demand Again!

Ripple is trading in the green at 0.8691 after reaching a strong support area. The crypto has decreased to test and retest some support levels before starting to increase again. The selling pressure was still high, so the last decline was natural.

The price of Bitcoin has decreased, so the altcoin's drop was expected. XRP/USD has signaled that the downside movement could be over and that the buyers could take the lead again.


RIPPLE BOUNCE BACK!


Ripple has found strong support on the 150% Fibonacci line and now is traded back above the S1 (0.8525). Consolidating above this level could announce a new upside momentum in the short term.

Its failure to retest the 150% Fibonacci line of the major descending pitchfork signaled that the drop could be over.


RIPPLE OUTLOOK!
Its failure to stabilize below the S1 (0.8525) and staying above the 150% Fibonacci line could bring an increase. Closing above 0.8863 immediate high could activate a potential growth.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

US traders earned as much as $ 4 billion in Bitcoin, while Chinese traders got half

Bitcoin's meteoric rise has spawned many crypto millionaires, but no other country has earned as much as the United States. Chainalysis estimates that US traders earned around $ 4.1 billion this year, three times that of the next largest country. In total, about 25 countries have had the most success when trading Bitcoin.

Evidently, many investors resorted to using the main cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation, but considering the high volatility in the market, it is unlikely that large players will join the trend in the near future. Perhaps, it will happen when many countries begin regulating the crypto market.



In the meantime, the latest actions of China set off massive sales in the crypto market, following the collapse last May. Chinese authorities have stepped up restrictive measures against cryptocurrencies, citing the long-standing concern on the asset's involvement in many scams and money laundering. But problems with tracing blockchain transactions remain quite serious, so authorities could not achieve massive compliance with the bans.

As for the United States, there have been proposals on how to regulate the crypto market. Similarly, the European Union is also in discussions about it.

Going back to the income statement, China came in second with $ 1.1 billion profit, followed by Japan, Britain, Russia and Germany. Emerging economies such as Vietnam, Turkey and the Czech Republic also ranked in the top 25.

Chainalysis said its estimates are based on transaction data from crypto services.



Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $ 31,000, and a further drop will result in a much larger collapse to $ 25,700 and $ 21,700. But if the quote goes back to $ 36,200, BTC can rise to $ 41,100, and then to $ 46,700 and $ 52,000.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021