Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin vulnerable to a move towards $23,000-$16,000.

As we mentioned in previous posts, Bitcoin price had formed a triangle pattern. Price mostly moves sideways after the strong decline from $65,000. Such a triangle pattern is usually a continuation pattern and usually find near the end of the trend. What this means is that although the most probable scenario is for price to break the triangle to the downside, this will most probably be the final leg down before a major bounce or counter trend move.



Red lines - triangle pattern

Black line - support

Blue line - expected size of decline of triangle break down

Yellow rectangle -target area

Bitcoin will most probably break towards the downside as long as price is trading below $39,000-$40,000. My target area is between $23,000 and $16,000. Support by the triangle is found at $34,500-$35,000. Breaking below this support we should see downward pressures on price. However as we mentioned above, I expect this sell off to be the last one and then price to start a major bounce or new upward move that will at least push price towards $45,000. Trend remains bearish as price continues making lower lows and lower highs. There is no reversal signal yet.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis for BTC/USD on June 4, 2021

BTC/USD, H1 time frame:



From the point of view of wave analysis, the global momentum for the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair is developing in the long term.

It is worth noting that the market completed the development of the bullish corrective wave 2 in early May, consisting of three main sub-waves [A]-[B]-[C]. After that, the price started to decline and the initial part of the third wave was formed. So far, the first part of it – a five-wave impulse [1] can be observed. Apparently, a correction sub-wave is currently under development [2].

Most likely, wave [2] is a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). The completion of the bundle wave (X) was recently seen, which was followed by the price growth within the current wave (Y).

Judging by the internal structure, the wave (Y) is a double combination of W-X-Y zigzags.

Now, let's focus on the last sub-wave (Y). There is a high possibility that it is a simple zigzag, in which the first two parts, namely, impulse [A] and correction [B], are completed. In this case, we can expect an increase in impulse [C] to the level of 44500.00 in the next few days. From this price level, the value of the entire correction [2] will be 50% of the momentum [1]. It is very probable to reach the specified coefficient.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Pascal Blanque believes that governments will "kill" bitcoin



There have been rumors in the market that the governments of China and the United States will purposefully work to tighten cryptocurrency circulation in their territories. The PRC may even completely ban mining. And this opinion did not arise out of nowhere. The latest initiatives of Beijing and Washington suggest that these are not simple fears "out of the blue", but quite real prospects. Many famous personalities adhere to this opinion. Earlier, the US Securities and Exchange Commission had already announced its plans to develop a set of rules for the functioning of cryptocurrency exchanges in the country. Pascal Blanque, director of the French investment fund Amundi, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets, also shared his opinion. He believes that cryptocurrencies are "pure farce" and "bubbles". According to Blanque, Bitcoin and its companions will be remembered in the world because they motivate central banks to issue digital money. Blanque believes that eventually central banks and governments will "stop the music" for Bitcoin. Earlier, Amundi experts conducted a study, the results of which showed low liquidity of cryptocurrencies, as well as a high probability of a collapse of quotes at any time, especially against the background of the introduction of strict regulation by states. Thus, as we said earlier, bitcoin in 2021 may not expect a rapid recovery and growth to $100,000, but another large-scale collapse in its history, especially if the fundamental background remains as bad.



Technically, in the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin rose to the upper, downward trend line and failed to gain a foothold above it. Therefore, on the next day, we expect a decline in bitcoin in the lower, ascending trend line, which lies near the level of $35,200. If the "digital gold" rate manages to gain a foothold above the upper trend line, this will increase the likelihood of growth with a target of $43,852. In any case, now bitcoin remains trapped in a triangle, so you need to look through which of its sides it will eventually exit from.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The growth is short-lived. Bitcoin is falling again!



Over the past day, bitcoin has grown in half to the level of $39,200 per coin, but it began a new decline this morning, which may continue to at least $35,200. The only conclusion that can be drawn from the last moves of bitcoin is that investors and traders are still not going to save Bitcoin. Contrary to popular belief, which is spread by investors themselves, companies whose activities directly depend on bitcoin, its rate and popularity, none of the institutions are now rushing to buy "digital gold". First, it should be understood that after the quotes fell down by $30,000, many investors (small or large) suffered losses. Secondly, when the upward trends in bitcoin end, they end for a long time, so it is unlikely that a recovery of the "bullish" trend can be expected in the near future. Thirdly, the fundamental background now is such that it is time to continue selling bitcoin, and not to think about new investments in it. All these factors speak in favor of the fact that bitcoin is likely to continue its decline and in the near future may fall again to the level of $30,500. Recall that the worst scenarios that have been voiced by analysts in recent days are $24,000 for a coin and $19,000 for a bitcoin coin. And, from our point of view, these are quite real scenarios. Moreover, all market participants fear that the authorities of China and the States will very much "tighten the screws" on the cryptocurrency market, which will significantly reduce the popularity of the main cryptocurrency around the world, and all its "counterparts". In recent weeks, there have been rumors that central banks and governments of many countries of the world have declared war on bitcoin, since at the moment the entire cryptocurrency market is equal to $1.7 trillion. This is a huge amount of money that is currently not taxed, and not controlled by governments. Naturally, such a course of things, especially if the crypto market continues to grow, as many crypto experts believe, cannot suit the authorities of any large and developed country. Recall that just recently, the G7 countries decided to introduce a unified corporate tax all over the world so that large corporations would not be able to evade taxes using "tax havens" - countries where tax rates are either minimal or zero. Such countries still profit from the presence of large corporations on their territory. But large countries, such as the United States or France, do not receive huge sums of money in their treasury. The situation is the same with bitcoin. It may find refuge in third world countries or developing countries, but large and developed countries will fight against it. At least, this is where everything is going now. Thus, we believe that the outlook for bitcoin is deteriorating day by day and it is far from the fact that we will see a new upward trend.



Technically, bitcoin's fuse continues to fade, and the cryptocurrency itself is trading very sluggishly. At this time, investors are in no hurry to buy bitcoins again, and miners get rid of the mined coins. The fundamental background remains unfavorable, so we believe that digital gold has more chances to return to the $30,500 level than to grow. If bitcoin quotes manage to gain a foothold above the 38.2% Fibonacci level - $41,000, then this will slightly increase the likelihood of further growth in digital gold, but traders still need to get to this level.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Tinkoff, a large private bank in Russia, is struggling to offer cryptocurrency trading to its clients due to the central bank's tough stance on digital assets.

Tinkoff CEO Oliver Hughes said the digital bank is ready to offer crypto trading services, but is constrained by Bank of Russia policies, CNBC said. The director said on Thursday at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum:

At the moment, there is no mechanism that would allow this product to be offered in Russia, as the central bank is in a very difficult position.

Hughes said the bank has noticed increasing demand from its clients for investing in cryptocurrencies, noting that there are "skilled investors who know what they are doing." The CEO noted that there were still some concerns about the use of cryptocurrencies in money laundering and the high risk of volatility.

"Hopefully this will change over time and we will be able to achieve central bank goals knowing there are no money laundering issues and making sure we are protecting investors and offering products responsibly," said Hughes.

Tinkoff is one of the most popular banks in Russia, ranked third in terms of demand, after state-backed Sberbank and VTB, according to a Deloitte survey. The bank is known for its "Tinkoff Investments" website, which allows you to invest in products such as stocks, bonds and currencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair is testing the lower short-term channel line around the level of $30,750. The momentum is still hovering around the neutral level of 50, but is not dropping lower yet. The market still trades under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794, so bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish. The next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $58,682
WR2 - $52,643
WR1 - $41,961

Weekly Pivot - $35,513
WS1 - $25,163
WS2 - $18,359
WS3 - $7,655


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
NortonLifeLock has launched Norton Crypto, a tool that enables consumers to "safely" mine cryptocurrency through Norton 360.

From Thursday, selected users will be invited to join Norton's Ethereum mining program. The company also plans to make the service available to its nearly 13 million customers in the coming months. Norton stressed that its service allows users to mine without having to turn off their antivirus software.

Norton said it plans to support the mining of other "top cryptocurrencies", stating:

While the company will start helping clients to mine Ethereum safely, NortonLifeLock is considering adding reputable cryptocurrencies in the future.

NortonLifeLock's director of products, Vincent Pilette, is proud to make his company the first cybersecurity company to offer services that enable miners to "safely and easily turn idle time on their computers into an opportunity to acquire digital currency."


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD bounce has been capped at the level of $2,861 when a Pin Bar candlestick was made. The market pulled-back towards the level of $2,639, which is a local technical support for the price. As long as the price is still under the level of $2,914, the bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is still seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,688
WR2 - $4,131
WR1 - $2,922

Weekly Pivot - $2,341
WS1 - $1,141
WS2 - $579
WS3 - $181


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Five-wave decline expected

By Thursday evening, BTC/USD is beginning to test the strength of two important resistance level boundaries. But does this mean that the breakdown of the triangle will occur upward?

The period of calm and uncertainty that has been observed since the collapse of cryptocurrencies in May, on the one hand, shows the indecision of market participants themselves, and on the other, worries both traders and analysts.

The speed at which bitcoin soared from $20,000 to $60,000 initially pleased traders. But now some analysts see such volatility as the bane of the bull market. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, believes the bitcoin rally may have started too quickly.

Observing the market as a long-time technical analyst, Timmer shares his view on the recent price dynamics of bitcoin. He notes that after the main cryptocurrency recently peaked, "a 5-wave decline may unfold further."

Explaining his position based on the wave theory, Timmer, like many others before him, agrees that before the market continues to recover, there may be a stronger fall. At the same time, he claims that he is still a bull in relation to bitcoin.

Now, according to the analyst, the cryptocurrency market is in a state where "even big trees shake from time to time."

Observing the opinions of experts, it can be noted that they all boil down to the following:
-cryptocurrencies remain a recognized asset (the bubble is canceled);
-the cost of bitcoin can be calculated in hundreds of thousands of dollars;
-but before that, there will be a correction, and the main question is how deep it will be.

For my part, I would like to note that now the market has no drivers for growth. The news background is very scarce in contrast to previous months, when every now and then there were headlines about Musk's statements or the next recognition of cryptocurrency by large banks.

Therefore, technology remains the main reference point, and everything looks very interesting here. The triangle on the four-hour chart can theoretically be broken in any direction. But now the price is testing its upper border and the resistance level 38,610.88 (red dotted line) for strength. Can an upward impulse occur here? Yes, but for now it looks like a reversal is in the making. This means that the pattern has not yet been fully formed, and the price in the triangle will decline.

In general, an equilateral triangle is still a technical uncertainty, one has to keep an eye out!






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for June 03 - 04, 2021: Buy above $37,000



In the early hours of the American session, BTC / USD (Bitcoin) is trading slightly higher, above the symmetric triangle. It seems that it has difficulty breaking it and it is seen that there could be a retracement to the support of 2/8 of murray.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's mining difficulty, which measures how much computer power it takes to produce a new coin, dropped significantly by 16% on May 30. The network adjusts the difficulty once every two weeks to reflect the level of competition among miners. The recent decline indicates that there is less competition.

More than 75% of the miners that validate Bitcoin transactions are located in China. However, the Chinese government has called for a severe crackdown on and punishment of illegal securities activities, including mining and cryptocurrency trading.

Without a doubt, BTC is going through a difficult time. The digital asset could trade laterally between 45,000 and 30,000 as the euphoria of investors has dissipated. Now they are more cautious after a 50% drop in the price that makes them more careful.

In the chart, we can see BTC consolidating above the SMA of 21 and above the 2/8 of murray. While it remains above the key level of 37,000, it is expected that there will be new rises and it will climb to the zone of the 200 EMA around 46,200.

The eagle indicator is in the neutral zone, there is no clear signal where the next move could point, so we recommend waiting for a bounce at 37,000 and buying in that zone with targets at 43,000 and 46,250.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 03 – 04, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,939
Resistance (2) 40,059
Resistance (1) 39,491

Support (1) 37,205
Support (2) 34,920
Support (3) 32,551




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH stuck near $3,000, XRP fluctuates, and LTC approaches psychological mark: analysis and forecasts

Bitcoin's sudden local maximum achievement had a positive impact on the mood of investors. The altcoin market was also encouraged, however, judging by the dynamics of several hours, it took a short pause. Despite this, the crypto market is beginning to form a positive atmosphere, which has already caused the total capitalization to grow by 5% to $1.8 trillion.

A change in market sentiment may have a positive impact on ETH/USD quotes. Over the past day, the asset has risen by 5.5%, but it is stuck at $2,800. The coin failed to break the $2,900 mark and began to roll back. The drop in quotes is accompanied by a decline in daily trading volumes, and the negative dynamics of price changes (-3%) suggests that the support of buyers in this zone is too small. Even though the next London update is approaching in the asset network, the market is not very enthusiastic about this news. This is due to the developers' statement that the transition to version 2.0 will take longer than expected. Given that as of June 3, the ETH 2.0 update is in Phase 0, the hype around the small benefits of local updates has been greatly exaggerated by the market. The current situation of ethereum will largely depend on the mood of bitcoin. If the first cryptocurrency goes up and overcomes the threshold of $40,000, then you can count on a retest of $3,000 and further movement towards $3,500.



The XRP token also demonstrates a slight increase, which has risen in price by 3% over the past day, to $1.05. At the same time, the current dynamics of price changes has become sharply negative, like that of ETH, which indicates the recovery of the recent positive and the stabilization of the exchange rate in the usual levels. The XRP/USD pair did not manage to get out of the fluctuation range in the region of $0.983-$1.05. The cryptocurrency has successfully gained a foothold in the region of $1, and the price consolidation at this level is complete. However, the coin lacks the trading volume and bulls' optimism to ram the $1.1 mark. The token only once, on June 1, managed to get close to this milestone, but immediately collapsed to the usual level of support. Given the lull after the local victory over the SEC, the coin will need a stronger momentum to successfully consolidate above the $1.1 mark.



The quotes of the LTC/USD pair managed to achieve local success and overcame the $190 mark, where the cryptocurrency failed on June 1. During the day, the asset managed to rise in price by 6%, however, like other altcoins, it fell under the stabilization of the exchange rate. The narrower dynamics of price changes remain negative (-3%), and it is very important for Litecoin to successfully test the support above $190. As of 12:00 UTC, the coin is in the region of $193 and is approaching a dangerous level. If LTC fails to stay above the safe limit, the crypto asset can sink to $170.



Despite the local decline, right now the cryptocurrency market is closer to recovery than another drop in quotes. A wave of optimism was launched by bitcoin, which managed to avoid the formation of the "death cross" and for the first time in 5 days reached $39,000. This gave large players an understanding that the asset is close to recovery and a successful retest of the $40,000 mark. In addition, Google partially lifted restrictions on advertising crypto platforms and wallets, which also had a positive impact on the quotes of coins and the entire crypto market. At the same time, clouds are gathering regarding the possible tightening of the regulation of crypto assets. A working group has already been established in the United States to develop a legal framework, and 45 amendments to European legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies in the EU have been registered in the European Parliament. Despite this, in the long run, this will play into the hands of the institutionalization of the market, and local negative aspects will be quickly recouped by the market. In the near future, the position of bitcoin will determine the vector of development of coins, as the correlation between BTC and altcoins has reached its maximum level recently.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin analysis for June 3. ECB fears loss of monetary sovereignty



The wave counting of the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin still suggests an increase in quotes. At the moment, the construction of waves a and b of a new upward correction is presumed to be completed. If this is true, then the rise in quotes will continue as part of the construction of wave c with targets located above the peak of wave a, that is, above the $42,000 mark. At the same time, the market sentiment remains negative, which makes it impossible to consider this option with 100% certainty. If in the coming days, or even weeks, the news background for bitcoin deteriorates again, then it will be possible to expect the construction of a new powerful downward wave. The entire wave counting can easily transform into a five-wave structure, and the current rise in quotes will then correspond to wave 4 of this downward trend section. However, I would talk about this after the targets of the current three-wave, located near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, have been worked out.

The news background for Bitcoin, as I have said many times, remains quite negative. There is practically no positive news now. But the likelihood that central banks and governments will continue to tighten the rules for the circulation and production of cryptocurrencies is growing. I recently said that in the United States and China, the rules for the circulation of bitcoin may be seriously tightened in the near future, and any mining may even be prohibited in China. And yesterday, the ECB released a report on the international role of the euro currency, which contained very hard-hitting information for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The ECB fears a loss of monetary sovereignty if large tech companies create their own digital currencies that will be inaccessible to the state and the central bank. The ECB notes that digital currencies managed by IT giants will pose a threat to financial stability, and most of the domestic and international payments will be controlled by external players (i.e. companies).

Thus, the central bank's ability to fulfill its monetary policy and economic management responsibilities with money, allocating and channeling it to the necessary sectors will be jeopardized. This information potentially means that the ECB will not be happy if new digital currencies enter the economy, especially if they are issued by large tech companies. However, the same can be said for Bitcoin. The more popular Bitcoin and other digital currencies become, the less the central bank has the ability to manage the economy of its own country. That is why countries such as the United States or China (not to mention Turkey, Iran, and a number of other countries) are not enthusiastic about Bitcoin and are going to seriously tighten this area. For the first cryptocurrency, this means a potential drop in interest among investors. Therefore, Bitcoin growth in the future may be much more difficult than in the last year.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, I continue to recommend buying bitcoin for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new decline in bitcoin quotes, possibly even as part of a new downward wave 5.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021