Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin stayed on the edge of the abyss!



By some miracle, Bitcoin was kept from fixing below the level of $43,852. However, it still held on, so the implementation of the correctional scenario is currently on pause. Recall that bitcoin has not had a strong fundamental background to continue to grow in recent months. Many consider the first cryptocurrency and the entire market to be overheated. However, it still cannot be said with certainty that the upward trend will not ultimately be resumed. At the moment, it just looks the other way around. We saw a classic three-wave corrective structure. Thus, now, when bitcoin failed to overcome the level of $43,852, and the correction looks impressive, it may just start to grow. However, this requires not only staying above the $43,852 level, but also a rebound from this level. It is not yet clear and unknown whether the buyers will be able to save bitcoin from the edge of the abyss. After all, it is possible that in recent days, bitcoin has been sold by large investors, both private and institutional. If so, they now need new reasons to start investing in bitcoin again.

Meanwhile, the crypto community lashed out at Elon Musk for his posts on Twitter regarding Bitcoin and Dogecoin. According to many market participants, Musk, with his statements and comments on cryptocurrencies, greatly affects the entire market, which often leads to losses. Moreover, many believe that Musk's posts have nothing to do with reality at all. Some experts say that Musk has absolutely no understanding of how money works. Others believe that Musk is simply provoking people online. Also, the crypto community is not happy with the fact that Musk is promoting the Dogecoin cryptocurrency, with which, according to the developers of this token, he has been associated since 2019. At the same time, Musk began to criticize Bitcoin again and publish false information about the first cryptocurrency on Twitter, causing irreparable damage to its ecosystem. True, most of the accusations against Elon Musk still sound far-fetched. Formally, Elon Musk has every right to comment on bitcoin and other altcoins. It is not his fault that the cryptocurrency market treats his statements as signals from the Fed about a change in monetary policy. On the other hand, Musk can use this factor for his personal interests and with the aim of manipulating the markets. According to some experts, Musk's statements can lead to a strong drop in bitcoin quotes, so people who own bitcoin have less money for everyday needs. Although, it is unlikely that the critic who said this is worried about ordinary people. Rather, it's about billionaires who are also losing money because of the words of the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla.



Technically, bitcoin dropped to the support level of $43,852, but failed to overcome it on the first attempt! Now is a very important time for bitcoin. In principle, the correction looks complete, so now either the downward movement will continue, but within the framework of the downward trend, or a new round of upward movement will begin within the existing upward trend. Thus, we would suggest cautious purchases from the level of $43,852. But if BTC overcomes this level, its fall will continue with the targets of $38,467 and $30,501.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of the BCN/USD pair

BCN/USD


A fairly deep decline occurred during the previous week, which resulted in an encounter with a strengthened support area, and a slowdown on yesterday's daily chart. The formation of a rebound from the reached support levels will contribute to the retest of the previously broken levels of the daily cross - 1159.19 (medium-term trend) - 1312.12 (short-term trend). If the bulls manage to regain the support of the daily Ichimoku gold cross, then another test of the high (1638.69) will become relevant again, with the subsequent possibility of forming a new extremum. But if the bulls fail to complete the current downward correction, and the encountered supports 1040 - 1064 - 1109 (Ichimoku levels of different timeframes) are broken, then the development of a downward movement can be expected. The next pivot points are the levels of a fairly wide support zone, the first and nearest of them can be noted at 945 – 919 – 886.



The main advantage in the smaller time frames currently belongs to the bears. Nevertheless, the pair has been in the correction zone for quite some time, after managing to take the central pivot level (1087). In terms of the development of an upward correction, the main interest is now aimed at resisting the weekly long-term trend (1195). A consolidation above which will change the current balance of forces on the hourly chart. After that, the upward pivots will be 1270 (R2) and 1372 (R3). But in the event that bearish activity returns, the support of the classic pivot levels can be noted at 1006 - 904 - 823 today.


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart are used in the technical analysis of this instrument.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP challenges major resistance

XRP/USD today briefly moved above key resistance levels of $1.60-$1.66 and reached as high as $1.70. However price has moved back towards $1.60 so we can not say yet that resistance is broken. So far price is supported and there seems to be a differentiation from the rest of the crypto market and specifically from Bitcoin.



Red line - resistance

Red rectangle- resistance area

Blue lines - support

Green line- major support area

XRP/USD best scenario for bulls is to see price break above the red resistance trend line and the horizontal resistance area. This would signal that a move above $2 is coming over the next couple of weeks. However traders should also take into consideration more bearish scenarios. In case price gets rejected at $1.60, we could see a pull back towards the blue support trend lines. First pull back target could be at $1.32. Next target would be at $1.15-$1.25. My primary scenario sees price break out soon and break above $2 targeting first $2.08 and next $2.65.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elon Musk: "Bitcoin is highly centralized"



The bitcoin exchange rate has collapsed to $43,000-$44,000 and is in no hurry to start a new round of upward movement. In this morning's article, we said that at this time, the option of continuing the correction does not look as likely as it did a week ago. The reason is that the quotes have fallen to the important support level of $43,852, and for the quotes to continue falling, the price mustn't overcome this level. Thus, everything now depends on it. The correction itself, which began in mid-April, looks quite convincing, so we can assume that the upward trend will resume soon. However, recall that the trend for bitcoin has been maintained for more than a year, and previously any upward trend was relatively short-term in the long term. A year and a half at most. Thus, from this point of view, bitcoin quotes will continue their way down. The fundamental backdrop for bitcoin remains extremely unattractive.

It all started with the power outages in the Xinjiang region in China, which led to the shutdown of a huge number of mining farms. In the last few days, Elon Musk came to the fore, who with several of his tweets and statements forced many investors to get rid of bitcoin. Unfortunately, this is the reality in 2021, when one functionary, even a famous billionaire, can bring down the cryptocurrency market with one tweet. "A single coal mine in Xinjiang flooded, almost killing miners, and Bitcoin hash rate dropped 35%. Sound "decentralized" to you?" Musk wrote on Twitter. A little later, Musk said that Tesla did not sell the remaining (about 90%) bitcoin coins, which helped the rate of "digital gold" to recover a little.

However, the main thing is different: Musk continues to manipulate the market. Consciously or unconsciously, it doesn't matter. No one knows how many bitcoins Tesla actually sold. This will only be available from the company's second-quarter reports, which will not be released soon. In addition, the markets continue to react very violently to Musk's statements, as if he is the creator of the cryptocurrency and can really bury it or, on the contrary, bring it to the kings. Also one of the Twitter users wrote: "Bitcoin owners will give themselves a slap in the face next quarter when they learn that Tesla got rid of the rest of their coins. Given the amount of hate Musk is getting right now, I wouldn't blame him." Under this message, Musk himself wrote: "That's right." In general, from a fundamental point of view, we would say that bitcoin will continue to decline.



In technical terms, bitcoin continues to move downwards on the 4-hour time frame after breaking the ascending trend line. The level of $43,852 is taken, so at the moment the downward movement continues. Overcoming the level of $43,852 will further increase the probability of continuing the fall of bitcoin quotes with the target of $38,467.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin reversal possibilities from $40k

Bitcoin has been moving lower as expected by our analysis and has already reached the upper target area of our target $43,000-$40,000. The RSI in the 4 hour chart is showing bullish divergence signs. This is just a warning and not a reversal signal.



Red lines- bullish divergence

If Bitcoin makes a new lower low and the RSI provides a new bullish divergence, then we should expect a bounce towards $47,000-$50,000 to follow. Major resistance remains key at $58,000 area. So far price is making lower lows and lower highs. In the short-term the chances of a bounce are high as long as the RSI is diverging. Nevertheless we should not forget that the trend is bearish and sell offs and crashes start from oversold conditions in the markets. Traders need to be very cautious.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 18,.2021 - Sellers in control and potential for drop towards $30.000



Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading at the important pivot support at $42.300 and no big reaction from buyers is sign that sellers are still in control.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at the price fo $30.370.

Stochastic is showing oversold condition but with no bull cross, which is another sign that sellers are in big control.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto hamsters are fleeing the ship, is everything as bad as it might seem?

A few weeks have passed since our last article, and now everything has changed so much that it becomes truly scary.

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a difficult time in recent days, the bitcoin correction has reached a scale of 35%, the second cryptocurrency has sunk by more than 28%, for the rest of the altcoins it is even scary to talk, since the declines are comparable to panic: -40%, -50% and even -70% of the value.

The "red candles" show was sponsored by everyone's favorite showman, businessman, and just a good crypto-fraudster Elon Musk, who recently made a number of loud statements that instantly won back the markets in the form of price crashes.

What has been said?

In the beginning, Elon Musk expressed strong displeasure that bitcoin mining is harmful to the environment and Tesla will no longer accept payments in BTC.

After that, Elon Musk criticized bitcoin for centralization. As an example, he cited an incident in Chinese mines that provoked a temporary drop in hash rate.

In principle, the great and powerful Musk is right, but do not forget about the main thing, he is a businessman and does not have to think about the well-being of crypto hamsters.

All of his statements are nothing more than playing on a large financial field, or do you really think that he is so concerned about environmental issues in the bitcoin mining process?

If you go a little deeper, you can see the essence of everything that is happening, this is just a large amount of money that Elon Musk plans to get in the near future.

Tesla has become one of the candidates for credit financing from the US government - the corporation can receive funds for the development of renewable energy sources.

One member of the US Congress suggests that the real reason for criticism towards BTC is precisely the possible cash injections, and Musk may well enter the eco-mining market.

Not only Musk managed to stand out in this big drop in the cryptocurrency market, the founder of the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, sold a huge number of meme coins (Shiba Inu (SHIB), AKITA (AKITA), and Dogelon Mars (ELON), and transferred the proceeds for charity.

Vitalik's case is sacred, but he pumped the altcoin market, increasing panic in risky assets.

From the above information, the true motive for the decline in the crypto market becomes clear, but what awaits us next?

First, it is worth highlighting the information where Elon Musk spreads a lot of rumors that Tesla and Musk himself are already beginning to sell off bitcoin holding on the balance sheet.

"To clear up rumors, Tesla did not sell bitcoins," Musk wrote on Twitter

This news locally supported cryptocurrencies, but panic and fear among traders are already on the market, and it is quite difficult to get rid of them.

In this situation, it is worth paying close attention to the information flow, since it sets the pace for the market.


Will crypto winter come in summer?

It's a good question, since now we have only a correction, and the cryptocurrency is still shooting in the market.

What confuses me more than the negativity on the part of Elon Musk is a huge flow of fresh blood on the market, where they shout from every iron about how good it is in the crypto market and how you can make money quickly. Grandfathers, Grandmothers, Grandchildren, Granddaughters, Taxi drivers, Bartenders, Cleaners - all became crypto experts, but this is not a good signal. I advise you to think about fixing the previously received super-profits, since soon the music may end, and the chairs will not be enough for everyone.


If there is hope for further growth?

In principle, there is, but the mechanism for the absorption of crypto hamsters has already been launched, and at any moment the trap can be closed. In simple words, even if the current food comes to naught, we will see further overheating, where, as a result, large players can turn into new blood, which will also eventually lead to a cycle of decline in the crypto market.


What happens on trading charts?

The first cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) has approached the important price area of $40,000/$43,000, which at this time still serves as a support level and leaves hope for a bright future. In order to dispel the fears of the crypto winter, the quotes need to bounce towards the values of $52,000-$60,000. In this scenario, another round of upward interest may arise, which ultimately will lead to the renewal of the local maximum ($64,899) and the formation of a new cycle.

A breakdown of the $40,000/$43,000 area will lead to even greater aggravation and fear among market participants, where the weakening of bitcoin in the direction of $29,000/$31,000 is not excluded.



The second cryptocurrency (Ethereum) is still at the conditional peak of the trend, although it has a 28% correction. The downward cycle has come not so long ago, traders are more confident in saying that the upward move may return to the market, and the coordinates of $5,000 per ETH may come soon.

In simple words, if the negative is easily removed from the horizon, the ether can continue to grow without any extra effort.

Keeping the price above $4,000 can instill confidence in buyers.

A breakdown of the $3,000 mark can increase fear in the market.



General background of the crypto market

Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, we see that in a little less than a week the market lost more than $400 billion in capitalization, this is quite a lot, but not critical.

The total market is currently $2.128 trillion.

Bitcoin retains its dominant position in the market at 39.8% of the Total Market, which is equivalent to $850,967,725,791 in numbers, but note how much altcoins are growing, since just recently the dominant share of BTC was more than 50%.



The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market has a very low indicator, which indicates a high excitement among traders. Just last week, the index moved steadily above the 60-point mark, and now it barely exceeds the 20-point mark.



Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of time frames (TF), it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly, daily, and weekly periods signal the sale of BTC, just reflecting to us the stage of correction in the market.

The monthly period, as before, follows an upward trend, signaling a buy.






Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Statistics show panic sell-offs

Bitcoin has not yet changed its technical picture, all the price benchmarks and scenarios noted in yesterday's forecast remain in force.

Meanwhile, interesting information is coming in from the network data provider Glassnode. They show that the net positions of miners and long-term holders continue to grow. At the expense of whom, then, does bitcoin fall? As suggested in previous reviews - at the expense of speculators.

Thus, the number of non-zero bitcoin addresses has significantly decreased. Glassnode reports: "The total number of addresses with a non-zero BTC balance is down 2.8% from the recent all-time high of 38.7 million addresses. A total of 1.1 million addresses have used up all the coins they had during this correction, which again indicates that a panic sell-off is currently underway."

Let's look at the on-chain metrics. The SOPR or spent output profit ratio measures the net gain and loss on outstanding bitcoins. "Short-term SOPR holder" or STH-SOPR stands for coins younger than 155 days. STH-SOPR fell below the key threshold of 1 according to Glassnode data.

The drop in the SOPR below 1 indicates that short-term holders decided to panic sell, fixing investment losses. At the same time, long-term coin holders continued to accumulate them. As the Glassnode data shows, the number of accumulation addresses increased dramatically during the price collapse.

It is always interesting to understand what reputable analysts think about the situation and find that the opinion presented in their own forecast based on the plus/minus technical analysis coincides.

Experts note that the price of BTC has not yet reached its bottom, and they expect a further collapse. Rich Ross of Evercore ISI noted in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of bitcoin is likely to continue to decline, to support at the 200-day moving average, that is, near $40,000.

Tallbacken Capital Advisors, LLC CEO Michael Purves also noted that momentum has now shifted quite decisively towards the bears, and $42,000 is an important support for bitcoin. If it does not manage to stay higher, it is worth preparing for further losses.

Wall Street veteran and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said BTC will continue to remain under pressure at around $45,000 over the next six weeks. "I think we are going to consolidate for a while, four to six weeks," he said.

Let me remind you that based on the technical analysis on the daily chart of BTC/USD, the support level of 41,980.24 is clearly visible, above which the price has so far managed to stay. If an upward correction follows from this level, then it can be stopped by the resistance of the downward channel (marked with blue dotted lines) in the area of 51,000-54,000. And if the price rebounds from the resistance of this trend, it may be a signal of a deeper correction.

If the level of 41,980.24 does not hold up as a support, then, as noted yesterday, bitcoin will fly to almost $34,000 per coin, if, of course, the psychological level of $40,000 is broken.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH took a break, XRP and LTC pull the market to growth: analysis and forecasts

After an extremely poor start to the week, the main altcoins are beginning to recover their positions. Some coins almost completely recouped Sunday's drop in quotes, and some are only approaching dangerous and important milestones. The crypto market is creaking, but it is coming out of the local crisis and even shows an increase of 1% over the past day.

The main factor in the success of the market was the personal growth of the XRP token. Over the past day, the asset rose by 6% and reached $1.65, which allowed the coin to break into the top 4 by capitalization. The cryptocurrency is growing in leaps and bounds and is accompanied by a surge in daily trading volumes, which in normal times are quite low in the region of $11 billion. In a narrower perspective, the coin also shows a good growth dynamics of +3.5%. The growth of the XRP/USD pair is mainly related to the defining event in the Ripple v. SEC case. The company managed to get hold of the documents of the regulator, and if the creator of XRP finds among them proof that the cryptocurrency is not a security, then the case will be won. This turn of events inspired positive investors, who, against the background of the problems of other assets, trusted XRP. Thanks to the growth of the token, the market managed to reach a plus at the end of the day, and soon, XRP will be the engine of the market.



Things are a little more complicated for ETH, which was overtaken by a market correction triggered by the collapse of bitcoin. As a result, the asset is held in the area of $3,490 and has fallen in price by 1% over the past day. At the same time, the daily trading volumes, which amount to only $65 billion, also sank. Despite this, there is no doubt that the asset will soon resume growth. The first prerequisites for this were the news that commissions on the ether network fell by 71% due to the market correction. This will cause a new surge in growth and activity in the ETH network, as the closest competitor - bitcoin - has a lot of other problems and distrust. In addition, it became known that the ether project attracted $27 million of investment over the past week and most of the bitcoin audience is gradually moving to the base of the main altcoin. Based on this, we can assume that the asset will resume its growth soon.



Likewise, things are also a little complicated for LTC, which is rising in price following the impulse of the Ripple token. The asset showed a steady growth of 6.5%, which indicates the coin's readiness to take advantage of the positive on the market and start growing. At the same time, the volume of daily trading in the litecoin network remains at a low level in the region of $9 billion. The cryptocurrency is quoted at $300 and continues to recover its positions after the bitcoin crash on Sunday. In the near future, the coin will continue to rise in price, and the first visible problem on the way to acceptable positions at $350 is the difficult $330 mark. In an altcoin situation, everything will depend on the news background and the general mood of the market and other cryptocurrencies.



It is difficult for the cryptocurrency market to start a protracted growth without significant news reasons, which have so far been extremely negative. Investors are very cool about the market due to the possible introduction of stricter legal regulation of coins. Investigations into the Binance crypto exchange are ongoing, and the central banks of South Korea and India are urging banks to abandon cryptocurrency transactions. All this creates a kind of tension around individual coins and serves as a reason to look for more reliable and understandable ways of investing. Ripple's victory over the SEC could be the decisive factor that could trigger a boom in the market and herald the beginning of a new growth cycle for the cryptocurrency market.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

New cryptocurrency F * CKELON gains popularity among crypto-traders



As we have already said, bitcoin fell after a series of regular tweets and statements by Elon Musk. However, if previously most messages from the CEO of Tesla led to an increase in the price of "digital gold", then in the last month, each message from Musk leads to its fall. Accordingly, all categories of investors and traders lose money, so they are very angry with Musk. Against this background, a group of crypto traders created a new token called F*CKELON. According to the developers, the total number of coins will be one billion, and the first owners of coins were almost 10,000 addresses, which shows well how the crypto community is enraged by Musk's tweets. At the moment, the new token costs about $0.0052 and has risen in price by 2000% in just 12 hours. Also on the Internet, a petition called "Musk must sell all bitcoin coins" was created, which is actively collecting signatures at this time. "If bitcoin or Dogecoin were regulated as securities, then this whole farce would be considered a fraud, and Musk would go to prison," the petition says.

Also, do not forget that about a month ago, the so-called "altcoin season" began. So experts called the process of pumping money from expensive bitcoin to less expensive alternative tokens, which have much greater growth potential. This also contributed to the fall in the bitcoin quotes, as the number of investors in "digital gold" decreased. At the same time, the Ethereum cryptocurrency is gaining popularity. Recently, the media has paid more attention to it than to bitcoin. The most common forecast that I have heard is $10,000 per coin, which is currently trading at $3,462 and has also collapsed over the past week, losing about a quarter of its value. The founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, Mike Novogratz, believes that ethereum can grow to $5,000 in the near future. According to Novogratz, such a forecast is pure mathematics. Novogratz himself has about 85% of cryptocurrencies in his portfolio but advises everyone to invest very carefully in digital assets, as he considers them high-risk.



It should also be noted that the technical picture for ether is more favorable than for bitcoin. Cryptocurrency quotes have fallen to the critical Kijun-sen line on the 4-hour time frame, and there is a high probability of a rebound from this line. And if there is a rebound, it will mean that the cryptocurrency will resume growth. If overcome, then ether may also continue to fall to the level of $2,481. However, so far, most traders and investors believe in ether more than in bitcoin. The bitcoin will have to try very hard to resume the upward trend. On the other hand, the trend, when bitcoin pulls the entire crypto market, has not been canceled. And at the moment we are talking about the fall.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021