Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Expensive bitcoin vs. less expensive altcoins

The medium-term forecast of bitcoin growth within the ascending channel 43,033.38 - 47,017.82 - 61,759.10 of February 28 has not lost its relevance. In the first four days of April, the main cryptocurrency fell, but today it regained all lost positions. BTC/USD remains flat at 52,929.55 - 57,513.35 between the two blue dotted lines and may soon break through its resistance.

At the same time, altcoins show more active dynamics. If we take a seven-day period, then during this time, bitcoin has hardly changed (at the time of writing, it has decreased by 0.02%), and ether has grown by 24.77%, updating its historical maximum and at the moment rising above $3,500. Litecoin is also gradually approaching its historical values. It rose 30.89% over the week.

It is becoming clear that with the high popularity of cryptocurrencies, investors have shifted their attention from bitcoin to less expensive altcoins. Although the price, in this case, is not the only argument.

Analysts from Arcane Research note that it is now the season of altcoins. And this is clearly seen in the Bitcoin dominance index. Now it has reached its lowest level in two years, and for the first time, it has dropped below 50%. From January to early May, this figure fell from 71% to 47%, which suggests that crypto enthusiasts are switching from BTC to alternative coins.

Arcane Research notes that one of the reasons for the shift in focus to altcoins is the growing interest in the DeFi space. Against this background, the price of ether and other tokens of DeFi projects skyrocketed.

The hype around Dogecoin, although it looks like a bubble, should not be discounted. Meanwhile, the coins of the Solana and Binance Smart Chain platform are particularly popular.

A similar situation was observed in 2017 during the bull market. During the moments of bitcoin consolidation, alternative coins were actively growing.

Against this bullish background, we can conclude that the sentiment of crypto investors does not subside, despite the correction of bitcoin. The shift in emphasis makes more affordable coins popular for retail investors.

Meanwhile, possible scenarios for bitcoin with the current technical picture will depend on whether its price can break through the local resistance level of 57,513.35 (blue dotted line) and gain a foothold above it. If so, then the path for growth into the mark of $61,000 per coin will be open. If the horizontal at 57,513.35 stops the price, the main cryptocurrency may once again return to support at 52,929.55 (blue dotted line).






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Analysis and forecasts for major cryptocurrencies on May 5, 2021

The cryptocurrency market has shown good growth over the past few days. Ethereum, which continues to update historical records, has become the main engine of growth in crypto asset quotes. Other coins maintain important milestones and continue to show growth in the targeted corridors. However, on May 5, the market decided to take a break before the start of a new growth cycle. Despite an insignificant decrease in cryptocurrency indicators, over the past day, the total market capitalization increased by 1.7%, reaching $2.360 trillion.

At the same time, the main digital asset managed to avoid the worst possible scenario and gained a foothold at the safe boundary of $55,000. Over the past day, the indicators of the cryptocurrency have decreased by 2%, however, bitcoin does not move away from safe positions and is kept in the region of $53,000-$55,000. In the near future, the main cryptocurrency will try to test the $60,000 mark, as evidenced by the growing daily trading volumes ($ 72.4 billion). Bitcoin needs to gain a foothold above a difficult mark to start a full-fledged growth.



The information background allows BTC to once again try to overcome a difficult psychological line. It became known that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched trading in new instruments created based on bitcoin - Micro Bitcoin futures. At the same time, it became known that the income of bitcoin miners in April decreased by 3%. This is due to the decline in the price of bitcoin. However, given the problems with electricity supply in China, it is worth noting that the drop in indicators was not so critical when you look at the big picture. Despite the relative calm and positive on the market, bitcoin needs to gain a foothold above the $60,000 mark, otherwise, the asset risks running into a correction again, which can cause a large-scale sale of the asset.

XRP/USD indicators have shown good growth over the past few days and even crossed a difficult psychological milestone. At the same time, on May 5, the quotes of the Ripple coin decreased by 1%, stopping at $1.48. The reason for the small drawdown of the asset may be the SEC statement. The regulator has threatened legal actions against investors who are trying to intervene in the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC. Based on this, it can be assumed that the coin will continue to fluctuate in the indicated corridors without sharp spikes in price growth.



After a small hangover, due to which LTC flew out of dozens of cryptocurrencies, the asset showed a meteoric rise. Over the past day, Litecoin has risen in price by 8% and reached an important milestone of $340. It should be noted that the local correction allowed new market participants to enter the asset on acceptable terms and count on further growth. The fall in altcoin turned out to be quite strong, but the asset regained its position thanks to the positive on the market. After all, Mastercard conducted a study, thanks to which it became known that more than 40% of consumers from different countries are ready to use cryptocurrency as a means of payment. Another payment giant - PayPal - announced the creation of a stablecoin, which is already being worked on.



Elon Musk's hand-held altcoin Doge demonstrates great success. The asset continues to develop various areas of application and obediently rises in price after the next tweet of the billionaire. However, the really important event for the meme asset was the sudden listing of the Gemini crypto exchange. Thanks to this announcement, the cryptocurrency displaced XRP from the top 4 crypto assets in terms of capitalization and reached $0.677, having risen in price by 139% over the week. In the near future, the asset price may continue to grow, given the positive agenda, however, the cryptocurrency continues to remain extremely volatile.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for May 05,.2021 - First target at the price of $53.000 has been reached

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading downside as I expected and the price reached my first downside target at $53.000.


Trading recommendation:

In case of the downside breakout of the key support at $53.000, watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside target at $48.350.

Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh bear cross, which is bearish condition....





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Dogecoin gains more than 50% this week



Created in 2013 as a joke, Dogecoin gained more than 50% this week, pushing it in 4th place in terms of market capitalization. This massive increase crashed the Robinhood trading app, who said they have now solved the previously encountered problems.

On Tuesday alone, Doge has jumped by over 33%. Other crypto exchanges such as Gemini consequently announced that they will start supporting the cryptocurrency, allowing it to be traded in their platforms.



Obviously, Dogecoin's rally has caught the attention of many on Wall Street, not to mention the Federal Reserve.

And, as a sign of its growing popularity, Robinhood is now one of the ten most downloaded apps on the Apple App Store.

Aside from that, over the past week, Ethereum and Dogecoin have become the leaders of cryptocurrencies, conquering new all-time highs. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued to fall, slipping by more than 5%.



But many believe that Dogecoin will pull back soon, returning to its previous levels. Until that happens, investors will take advantage of the current momentum and push it into higher values.

Well-known crypto investor Mike Novogratz warned that rallies could be volatile so investors should be careful when trading Dogecoin.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 05, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin reverses from our defined resistance zone around $58,000-59,000 levels yesterday. The crypto had dropped through $53,000 mark before finding support but managed to produce a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern on the daily chart. This indicates a potential reversal lower and falls in-line with our projections at $41,000-43,000.

Bitcoin has pulled off from yesterday's lows and is seen to be trading around $55,300 levels as we prepare to publish this article. Bears are expected to remain in control at least until prices stay below the $60,000 mark, going forward. Immediate interim resistance is at $59,000, followed by $65,000 mark, while support is around $47,000, followed by $43,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin is producing a medium term counter trend drop towards $41,000-43,000 zone, before the rally could resume higher. A drop below $47,000 mark will confirm and accelerate towards $41,000, which is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $65,000 levels respectively.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 65,000, target @ 41,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Litecoin on May 5, 2021

1. Analysis of volumes for the instrument LTCUSDT from the Binance exchange.

This analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Binance exchange on daily charts. It is carried out on the basis of the "Footprint-Profile" theory, in which the movement of the level of the maximum horizontal volume per day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

05/03/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 289
05/04/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 299

The point of control moved upwards. The price is above the POC level. On the market, there is an upward movement, so you can buy.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but don't know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term.

These are the trends that need to be analyzed before opening any deal. This is what we will do in this analysis.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Deals will be executed on the daily timeframe and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out using the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend in front of us and we should buy. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and we should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The long-term trend is upward, so buying is worth considering in this situation.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)), will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is upward, so you can buy.


4. Analysis of the short-term trend.

A short-term trend that can show the point of entry into the market well is a trend on the H1 timeframe. We will be helped by the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the H1 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The short-term trend is upward, so you can consider buying. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends are the same.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closed upwards, the candlestick is white. Its maximum is higher than the maximum of the previous candlestick. Candlestick configuration - Trend candlestick, large body, long shadows. From the point of view of candlestick analysis, buying can be considered.


6. Conclusions.

Volumetric analysis - BUY.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY.
Short-term trend - BUY.
Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY.

General conclusion: On May 5, 2021, you can buy, since different types of analysis give the same forecasts.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics are kept on completed transactions. Forecasts and transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD.


Statement:


I do not open new deals, as the instrument has reached its maximum.

Risk per trade is 1% of the deposit. For new trades, the stop loss is located behind the daily extreme point. We do not set the take profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will gain profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Ethereum on May 5, 2021

1. Analysis of volumes for the ETHTUSD instrument from the Binance exchange.

This analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Binance exchange on daily charts. It is carried out on the basis of the "Footprint-Profile" theory, in which the movement of the level of the maximum horizontal volume per day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the upward movement of the maximum volume levels indicates an upward trend. A downward movement of the maximum volume level indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

05/03/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3043
05/04/21 - Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 3302

The point of control moved upwards. The price is above the POC level. On the market, there is an upward movement, so you can consider buying.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a friend of a trader. Many traders know this saying but don't know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term.

It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any deal. This is what we will do in this analysis.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Deals will be executed on the daily timeframe and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out using the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then we have an upward trend in front of us and we should buy. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and we should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The long-term trend is upward, so buying is worth considering in this situation.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)) will also be used for this analysis. If the H4 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is above the EMA (48). The medium-term trend is upward, so you can consider buying.


4. Analysis of the short-term trend.

A short-term trend that can show the point of entry into the market well is a trend on the H1 timeframe. We will be helped by the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA (48)). If the H1 candlestick closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candlestick closes below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.



The price is in line with the EMA (48). The short-term trend is sideways, you can buy and sell. Long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends do not coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

Classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closes upwards, the candlestick is white. Its maximum is higher than the maximum of the previous candle. Candle configuration - Indefinite, the body is not large, long shadows. From a candlestick analysis point of view, you can buy and sell.


6. Conclusions.

Volumetric analysis - BUY.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY.
Short-term trend - BUY SELL.
Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY SELL.

General conclusion: On May 5, 2021 you can buy and sell, since different types of analysis give different forecasts.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, statistics are kept on completed transactions. Forecasts and transactions are made in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD.


Statement:


Risk per trade is 1% of the deposit. For new trades, the stop loss is located behind the daily extreme point. We do not set the take profit, since we will accompany the transaction by moving the stop loss beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will gain profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum is gaining popularity and is now aiming for $10,000



While bitcoin is in a corrective movement, the attention of the crypto community is increasingly switching to the second largest and most popular cryptocurrency in the world – Ethereum. Unlike bitcoin, ether continues to grow steadily. All indicators show that the growth in value continues, and the stronger it is, the more new investors want to support it. Moreover, many crypto experts now note that it is from bitcoin that many retail investors transfer their capital to alternative cryptocurrencies, such as Binance Coin or Ethereum. For example, traders yesterday lost almost $600 million on short positions on the ether, as the rate continued to grow and reached a historic high of about $3,500. And in terms of trader losses, Ethereum has overtaken even bitcoin, whose capitalization is still much higher. Thus, more experts believe that it is Ethereum that will continue its growth and that it will be much easier for this token to show growth to $10,000 per coin than for bitcoin with a similar growth to $160,000. Thus, these calculations cause an increasing number of investments to flow into the ether, which allows it to continue to grow in price.

Ethereum is currently available to large investors, as its derivatives are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Thus, potentially, institutional investors can also join the new trend in the near future. Experts also point out that the drop in interest in bitcoin may be partly caused by the news of the sale of this cryptocurrency by Tesla, which as a result gave a signal to the market that a strong increase in the quotes of bitcoin in the near future is not worth waiting for. In general, at this time, it is ether that has an excellent chance of continuing growth, and not bitcoin.



The illustration clearly shows that the upward trend in ether has only intensified recently. The cryptocurrency quotes have consolidated even above the ascending channel and moved far away from all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. Now that it is more promising, cheaper, and with lower transaction costs, the cryptocurrency is attracting more and more attention among private and institutional investors. Its nearest target is located near the next psychological mark of $4,000. But we believe that it can grow up to $10,000 cryptocurrency in 2021.



On the hourly time frame for bitcoin, a new downward trend is forming, as the quotes are fixed below the ascending trend line. Thus, a downward movement for the first cryptocurrency is more likely in the coming days.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
As the price of Ethereum soared to a successful $ 3,450, short position traders felt the repercussions of the record liquidation rate.

On-chain data reveals a new record for short cuts across all derivative exchanges worth more than $ 375 million in the last day alone.

The price of the second largest cryptocurrency has recently hit the headlines of industry websites, reaching another ATH. The price of the digital asset has increased by around 350% since the beginning of the year.

At the very beginning of May, ETH was $ 2,750 but surpassed $ 3,000 for the first time in the next 48 hours. The bulls did not stop trying to push the price higher and higher, which led to a continuation of increases towards the level of over USD 3,500.

It highlights the dimension of liquidation brought about by the recent rise in the price of ETH. The company said the number of short cuts across all derivative exchanges reached an all-time high. According to Bybt, liquidations in the last 24 hours totaled more than $ 520 million, the vast majority of which were short positions.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $3,521, but the rally from the level of $2,955 has ended with a Pin Bar and Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns, which might indicate a potential pull-back. The immediate technical support is located at the level of $3,184, but if this level is violated, then the next technical support is seen at $2,955. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are now extremely overbought, so a correction is welcome.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,152
WR2 - $3,563
WR1 - $3,343

Weekly Pivot - $2,736
WS1 - $2,538
WS2 - $1,587
WS3 - $1,750


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $4,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,550, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple Set To Start New Rally!

Ripple has decreased a little in the short term as the other major cryptocurrencies have dropped as well. Still, this could be only a temporary decline before the rate starts increasing again.

XRP/USD has found support again and now it could give birth to a new leg higher in the short term. Technically, the price remains bullish despite the current retreat. A new higher high could bring a new opportunity.


XRP/USD DECLINE SEEMS OVER!


XRP/USD dropped again after failing to stabilize above the ascending pitchfork's median line. Now it has dropped below the weekly pivot point (1.4134) where it has found support again.

Stabilizing above the weekly pivot and closing above the immediate highs could activate a new bullish momentum.


FORECAST!

Jumping and closing above 1.5020 could bring a new rally at least until the ascending pitchfork's median line (ml). A valid breakout above the median line (ml) could really signal a strong upwards movement ahead towards 1.9637 higher high.

The Stop Loss could be hidden below 1.3155 yesterday's low.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021