Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Bitcoin

BITCOIN



The end of the week and month is drawing near. Throughout the week, bitcoin seeks to neutralize all the achievements of the bears of the past week, but the month will most likely remain in history as a time of uncertainty. Despite the new all-time high in April, bulls have failed to hold positions and close with positive results. The attraction is now exerted by the weekly short-term trend (54,808.81) and the psychological level (55,000.00), the daily cloud (56,498.81-52,375.80), and the daily Ichimoku cross are a little more expanding. If the bulls manage to overcome the indicated levels and gain a foothold above 60,000.00, then the question of a new maximum will again arise, for this, it is necessary to update the reached maximum (64,768.80). If the players go down under the indicated supports, and then they will be able to gain a foothold under 50,000.00, then it will be possible to consider new downward guidelines and targets. For example, the weekly level (45,049.58) and, formed by that time, the downward target for the breakdown of the daily Ichimoku cloud.



The key levels of the lower halves (weekly long-term trend and the central pivot level of the day) have joined forces today (around 53,761.73) and are trying to keep the upside advantages of the players. Working above these supports allows us to make plans for further strengthening of bullish sentiments. After testing the final Pivot level (57,462.82), the question of interaction with the resistances of the higher halves will arise. Fixing below 53,761.73 will change the current balance of forces on H1 in favor of the bears.


In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used:

Higher time frames - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum is starting to catch up with Bitcoin



As we have said in recent articles, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains quite complex. Simply put, there is no real positive news for cryptocurrency right now. We do not believe that the announcement of future purchases of bitcoin with reserve funds by Microstrategy is really important and positive news. Moreover, the press release also contains information that the company can sell a certain share of bitcoin. It seems that the software developer is just trying to catch up with a new hype so that the cryptocurrency will rise in price even more.



Meanwhile, TV star and investor Kevin O'Leary said that Ethereum will always be one step behind Bitcoin. Recall that recently, while bitcoin is correcting, ethereum is confidently stepping up and updating one maximum after another. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $ 2,845, and unlike bitcoin, there is no weakening of the upward trend in the ether. Moreover, a very similar ascending channel is also present on the Ethereum movement chart. However, the second cryptocurrency after bitcoin did not leave it and showed steady growth in the last week.

Moreover, the ether is traded much more evenly, and each of its subsequent highs is located approximately at the same distance from the previous one. Thus, we believe that ethereum has a better chance of continuing to grow than bitcoin. Recall that the bitcoin dominance index has been falling recently and is already less than 50%. However, Kevin O'Leary believes that "Bitcoin will always be gold, and Ethereum will always be silver." The TV star believes that the world's second-largest cryptocurrency will be used as a "system for tracking and conducting payments." However, to achieve this goal, ethereum is now too expensive, according to O'Leary. However, as long as the ethereum continues to be inside the channel, the upward trend persists.

But experts and analysts at Fundstrat believe that the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency will continue to grow and will be at least $ 10,000 in 2021. According to the study, investors' attention is beginning to shift in favor of Ethereum. Earlier, JPMorgan experts said that Ethereum is becoming more attractive than bitcoin, as the first is more perceived as a means of exchange and payment, and the second – only as a means of saving and investment. We support this view, as the price of bitcoin is already too high. Perhaps this is not a hindrance for large investors and institutions, but small and private traders are unlikely to want to invest several thousand dollars in 0.02 "cue ball." Thus, ethereum attracts investors with a more human value, which provokes a strong growth of the cryptocurrency and a movement in "non-human value."





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is unlikely to become the world's single currency.



All Saturday, the first cryptocurrency was pushed around the level of $ 58,000, which corresponds to 61.8% on the Fibonacci grid built on the last round of the downward correction. In other words, the "cue ball" has corrected by 61.8% against the last round of the downward correction. On Sunday, the bears make another attempt to resume the downward movement, which is still a more likely scenario. We remind traders that no asset in the world can grow continuously. If the growth is excessively strong, it already suggests a "bubble," and bitcoin is the most "bubbly bubble" that has ever existed. The main paradox is that if the whole world or a large part of it accepts bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) as a means of payment or a means of saving, then a piece of useless code that has no intrinsic value can cost as much as you want and become part of the global financial system for a long time. However, if gold will never be cheap because there is not much of it in the world and you need to spend a lot of effort to get it and overtake it into the usual form of coins or bullion, then bitcoin may well cost $ 0 since it does not cost anything in itself and does not bear any benefit. Also, all those who believe that bitcoin will always be in price are mistaken since there can be no more than 21 million coins in principle. It means that "digital gold" is protected from inflation or additional emissions. But this is not true since bitcoin has already had at least two forks. In simple words, other cryptocurrencies were separated from bitcoin: Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold. It turns out that a new fork can happen at any time. And how many cryptocurrencies exist in addition to the "cue ball"? Many experts are predicting the role of ethereum as a universal means of payment and not bitcoin. And there are hundreds of cryptocurrencies now. Thus, in parallel with the "cue ball" worldwide, another hundred or two other digital tokens can be used. That is, we will get a situation that exists now: a huge number of currencies. And there will be a huge number of digital currencies. And if central banks also join with their stablecoins, then in 10-20 years, there will be such a mess in the financial system that schools will need to introduce new disciplines about money to study. Thus, we are not set on the fact that bitcoin will become "digital gold."



In technical terms, the "cue ball" rose to the level of 61.8% by Fibonacci, which theoretically can restrain the further growth of the crypto tool. Thus, so far, the further growth of "digital gold" is still not obvious, given the lack of a supporting fundamental background and the technical exit of quotes beyond the ascending channel. We have already said that the upward trend is weakening and may end. At the moment, even taking into account the growth of the "cue ball" in recent days of $ 11.5 thousand, we still believe that there is a greater probability of a fall.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mike McGlone: The minimum price for bitcoin is $ 100,000.

While bitcoin is "aiming" for a new round of downward correction, many crypto experts continue to predict new price highs for the "cue ball." Ordinary analysts predict $ 70,000 per coin in the near future, although a week ago, forecasts spoke of a range of $ 30-40 thousand. However, in the world of bitcoin, everything is changing very quickly, so a new batch of forecasts "from $ 100,000 and above" was not long in coming. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone gave three reasons why bitcoin will continue to rise in price. McGlone believes that bitcoin is integrated into the activities of Tesla, the issue of ETFs based on it, and the adoption of cryptocurrency by humanity as a worthy replacement for fiat money will continue to push the rate of "digital gold" up. McGlone also called bitcoin "the right asset in a world that is slowly moving to digital technologies." As a goal, McGlone indicated the level of $ 100,000 per coin. Although just at the end of March, he also talked about reaching the $ 400,000 mark this year. However, the forecast does not ask for proof. You can call any numbers and adjust any factors to them.

Meanwhile, the latest financial report of the most famous bitcoin owner in the world, Microstrategy, showed that the company is set up for further investment in the "cue ball" and may well sell the cryptocurrency. Recall that recently Tesla announced the sale of bitcoins for $ 272 million, approximately 10% of its digital assets. Thus, two companies at once, whose names many associates with bitcoin, began to hint at selling or selling bitcoin "under a plausible pretext." From our point of view, this is a "wake-up call." We will not be surprised if the financial statements show a new small decrease in the number of bitcoins on the balance sheet of both companies. After all, you can't sell 91,000 bitcoins at once (that's how much Microstrategy has on its balance sheet). The price may immediately fall. Even during the sale itself, it may begin to fall. And the next day after such a transaction, the quotes may even fall. After all, do not forget that about 19 million coins are mined at the moment, but at the same time, there are more than 4 million in circulation, and maybe much less. All this makes the bitcoin market very "thin," where any serious transaction can seriously affect the current "digital gold" rate.



By the way, on the hourly timeframe, there is a situation in which the upward trend of recent days may be broken in the near future. If a few days ago the quotes of the "cue ball" were fixed above the descending trend line, then today they can be fixed below the ascending trend line, which will increase the probability of resuming the corrective movement on the 24-hour timeframe.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021