Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BITCOIN: Tesla Inc. sells its bitcoins

The bitcoin exchange rate continues to recover after a major drop in the area of $48,000, but now everything is not so simple from a technical point of view. But before we talk about it, it is necessary to mention that Elon Musk and Tesla Inc. sold about 10% of their bitcoins. This was done not in order to fix the profit, but on the contrary - to demonstrate the liquidity of bitcoin. Musk also said that he has kept his personal investments in cryptocurrency.



Tesla's earnings report says that the company, which bought more than $1.5 billion worth of bitcoins earlier this year, received $101 million in net income from their partial sale. In his tweet, Musk wrote that in this way he proved the liquidity of bitcoin as an alternative to storing cash.

And although many still consider investing in bitcoin quite risky - Tesla's chief financial officer Zachary Kirkhorn, immediately after the publication of the income statement, said that the company believes in the long-term value of bitcoin as a new investment tool.

Let me remind you that at the beginning of this year, Tesla announced the purchase of a digital currency for $1.5 billion. It was not said at what rate bitcoin was purchased, but many experts believe that this price range fluctuates in the region of $40,000–$43,000. This statement led to a new wave of bitcoin growth.

For many traders, bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, and tokens are still purely speculative investments and not a legitimate alternative to cash. Many argue that the token does not work as a means of saving or a unit of account due to its volatility. Another thing is the launch of digital currencies, which is expected soon from many global central banks. However, Morgan Stanley believes that after the launch of digital currencies, cryptocurrencies will still exist, as they serve slightly different purposes and are used in a completely different way – for example, as a means of saving. Some people do not trust fiat money and banks – cryptocurrencies are quite an appropriate alternative for them. Bitcoin and other tokens can also act as a fairly good speculative tool.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, there are currently quite clear ideas about its future direction. Until the moment when trading is conducted above the level of $52,600, we can expect a more active growth to the resistance of $57,000, and only after overcoming this level can we say that bitcoin has rushed to the area of new historical highs. If the bears again push the level of $52,600 or start problems with growth above $57,000, where, by the way, the 50-day moving average passes, then most likely we will see another major wave of falling cryptocurrency. This time, with the breakdown of support at $47,500 and the exit to the lows of $43,000 and $37,000. I wonder what the same Elon Musk will say later, when his investments of more than $1.5 billion begin to show colossal losses.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for April 27,.2021 - Overbought condiiton and potential for the reversion to the mean towards $52.300

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that buyers are in control but that important resistance at the price of $52.300 is on the test.

Due to the overbought condition there is overall risk for the buyers and potential for the downside rotation.

Intraday advice will be to watch for bearish divergences and try to play for the reversion to the mean into the $53.750





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for April 27, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin continues its pullback rally after dropping towards $47,000 lows on April 25, 2021; and is expected to reach up to $58,000 mark in the next few days. The crypto is required to drop towards $41,000 mark, which is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $65,000 levels, before resuming its rally.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $54,500/600 levels at this point in writing and is expected to test $58,000/60,000 zone before turning lower again. Immediate resistance stands at $65,000 mark; while support comes in around $43,000 levels respectively. A drop towards $43,000/41,000 zone could complete a corrective decline that had begun from $65,000 levels earlier.

The overall uptrend continues to remain intact and Bitcoin needs to break below its one year rising trend line, which is now passing through $28,000 levels, to turn the trend lower again. Watch out for short-term resistance around $58,000 mark and bears coming back into control.


Trading plan:

Sell again @ 58,000/60,000, stop @ 65,000, target @ 43,000 and 41,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Is Bitcoin Decline Really Over?

Bitcoin is trading at 54,717 and it seems determined to come back higher after the rate has printed a reversal pattern in the short term. The corrective phase seems over after its failure to stabilize under 48,000 psychological level.

BTC/USD has printed a bullish pattern on Sunday signaling a potential upside momentum after the most recent sell-off. The price approaches new upside obstacles in the short term. Bitcoin's further growth should help the altcoins to increase in the coming period.


BTC/USD THROWBACK!


Bitcoin found strong demand around 48,000 psychological level. Its failure to stabilize under 50,000 confirms once again that the buyers are very strong despite the last correction.

As you already know from my analysis, BTC/USD was expected to drop after failing to stay above the red uptrend line and after its incapacity to approach the Rising Wedge upside line.

The rate bounced back from below the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork. The pin bar printed on Sunday followed by a strong bullish candle signaled a bullish momentum in the short term.

Now the digital token is trading above the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork and it could hit the weekly R1 (55,481) soon. Personally, I believe that the pressure remains high as long as it stays under the R1 and below the upside 50% Fibonacci line.


BITCOIN OUTLOOK!

Sunday's pin bar followed by an aggressive breakout through the weekly pivot (51,253) signaled that the decline could be over.

Its failure to approach the weekly S1 (44,889) signaled that the rate could come back higher towards the R1 (55,481).

Personally, I'm waiting to see a consolidation or a new temporary decline before going higher again. BTC/USD could decrease a little again in the short term before developing a larger upwards movement towards the all-time high.

It could come back to test and retest the weekly pivot and the descending pitchfork's median line (ml) before resuming its growth.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum volume analysis for April 27, 2021

1. Analysis of ETHTUSD volume on the Binance exchange.

In this analysis, we will use the data on horizontal trading volume from the Binance exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the footprint-profile theory. According to it, the movement of the level with the highest traded volume during the day can indicate a possible direction of the trend. The level with the highest traded volume is the level where the maximum number of transactions has been made. This is the level of a major market player. Accordingly, if the maximum volume level moves higher, this indicates an uptrend. A downward movement of this level indicates a downtrend. A chaotic movement signals that the market is trading in a sideways trend.

25.04.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) - 2217.35
26.04.21 - The level of the maximum traded volume (POC - Point Of Control) - 2483.02

The POC has moved up, and the price is above the POC level. The market is trading upwards, so you can open long positions.


2. Long-term trend analysis.

A trend is the trader's friend. Many market participants know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. In this case, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. The classic Dow Theory describes three main trends:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term.

You need to analyze these trends before opening any trade. This is what we are going to do in the analysis below.

The long-term trend in this analysis is a daily trend. Trades will be opened on the daily chart and held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is carried out with the help of the EMA(48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the daily candlestick closes above the EMA(48), this will mean that the quotes are moving in an uptrend and we should open long positions. If the daily candlestick closes below the EMA(48), this will mean that the quotes are trading downwards and we should go short.



The price is above the EMA(48). The long-term trend is upward. In this situation, you can open long positions.


3. Medium-term trend analysis.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend is a trend on the four-hour chart (H4). The EMA(48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used in analysis. If the candlestick closes above the EMA(48) on H4, this means that the quotes are moving in an uptrend and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA(48) on H4, this means that we have a downtrend and we should sell.



The price is above the EMA(48). The medium-term trend is upward. Therefore, it is possible to open buy orders.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

The short-term trend in this analysis is a trend on the H1 chart. It can show a point where we can enter the market. Here, we will again use the EMA(48) - an exponential moving average with a period of 48. If the candlestick closes above the EMA(48) on H1, this means that the quotes are trading upwards and we should buy. If the candlestick closes below the EMA(48) on H1, this indicates that the trend is downward and we should go short.



The price is above the EMA(48). The short-term trend is upward. Therefore, traders can go long. The long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily trading chart. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candlestick.



The daily candlestick closed upwards, the candlestick is white. The high is above the high of the previous candlestick. The candlestick pattern matches the trend, it has a long body and small shadows. Therefore, according to the candlestick analysis, it is possible to open long positions.


6. Conclusions.

Volume analysis - BUY.
Long-term trend - BUY.
Medium-term trend - BUY.
Short-term trend - BUY.
Japanese candlestick analysis - BUY.

Conclusion: On April 27, you can open long positions as the different types of analysis provide the same forecasts.


7. Statistics.

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCHUSD. Statement:



We have opened a new long position on Ethereum.

The risk is 1% of the deposit. Stop-loss orders for new trades can be placed beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set take-profit orders, as we will continue to move SL beyond the extreme points of the future sessions.

Since trading is carried out on the daily charts, this recommendation remains relevant throughout the day.

Trade along the trend and you will make a profit!





Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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JPMorgan launches First Bitcoin Fund!



One of the largest American banks, JP Morgan, said that it is going to open the first bitcoin fund in the world, which will be actively managed by the bank itself. According to the bank, several companies offer similar services (purchase, storage) at the moment, but none of the well-known companies offer the management of already purchased coins. This service will be available to a limited number of the bank's customers, and the product itself may become available as early as this summer. Earlier, the financial conglomerate filed documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in order to create a new basket of shares of those companies that are related to the cryptocurrency market. Thus, the largest banks and financial organizations continue to try to keep up with the times and believe that bitcoin will occupy an important place in the financial system of the future. However, many of these banks and corporations themselves do not risk anything, as they do not invest in bitcoin, but only provide such an opportunity to their customers.



Let's take a look at the hourly time frame. There is a clear downward trend line, which has at least three points of support. Yesterday, we assumed that the bitcoin quotes could reach this line within the next day. At the moment, the development has not yet happened, but bitcoin has come as close as possible to this line. Thus, first, a rebound from the trend line can trigger a new round of decline, and overcoming it - the completion of the correction and the resumption of the upward trend. So, the fate of bitcoin for the next couple of weeks may be decided today. Secondly, upon approaching the trend line, the bullish fuse has dried up a little, which speaks in favor of a very likely turn down and the resumption of the fall of bitcoin quotes. We continue to focus on the fact that there was no positive news either for bitcoin or for the entire cryptocurrency market on Monday or over the weekend. It is true that bitcoin can become more expensive without a fundamental background, but now there are not even simple messages like "institutions have started buying again". Therefore, everything should be decided in the coming days near the trend line on the hourly time frame. Also, at this time, it seems like there is a decrease in the hype around the first cryptocurrency. The news flow has decreased in recent days, which may indicate a decline in the popularity of bitcoin. According to the latest data, the cryptocurrency dominance index has fallen below 50%. This suggests that more and more altcoins are attracting the attention of investors and traders, and bitcoin is now too expensive for many traders and investors. Other cryptocurrencies show no less growth in the long run.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Ethereum is a cryptocurrency that has seen one of the largest increases over the past few weeks. Along with the price increase, the network transaction fees dropped.

Data from EthGasStation indicate that standard or fast transactions are processed at costs between 39 and 50 gwei (respectively).

As shown in the chart below, gas charges in the second-largest cryptocurrency network have been falling since April 20. At this point, this indicator has jumped to an average of $ 37, which is the highest cost since February 2021. The trend appears to be reversing and the indicator is close to its lowest level this year with an average cost of $ 10.22 per transaction.

Ethereum's nearly 72.22% hash rate uses Flashbots and their tools. Miners use them to maximize their rewards. The hash rate has seen an almost 15% increase in the last two weeks.

The implementation of the EIP-1559 scheduled for July caused much discontent in the mining sector. Many web users have focused on finding new ways to maximize their profits and Flashbots could become the backbone of the new ETH fee market.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has reversed from the lows located at the level of $2,201 and is currently trading above the level of $2,500 again. The local high was made at the level of 42,653 at the time of writing the analysis. Any further rally will lead to another wave up towards the recent high located at the level of $2,639. The immediate technical support is located at $2,377. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,085
WR2 - $2,863
WR1 - $2,509

Weekly Pivot - $2,289
WS1 - $1,926
WS2 - $1,691
WS3 - $1,326


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $3,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,000, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
In the newly released report, we read that Tesla Motors sold part of its stake in bitcoin in the first quarter of this year, generating a net income of $ 272 million.

In a 30-page supplement to its quarterly financial results, Tesla reported a "positive impact" of $ 101 million on BTC sales. In its quarterly cash flow statement, Tesla concluded that "revenues from digital asset sales" were valued at $ 272 million.

According to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the company "sold 10% of its stake to prove bitcoin liquidity as an alternative to keeping cash on the balance sheet."

The electric vehicle maker hit the headlines in February after revealing a strategic BTC acquisition move of $ 1.5 billion. At that time, it accounted for 7.7% of Tesla's gross cash pool. Shortly thereafter, the company also announced that it would accept bitcoin as payment for its cars without having to convert it into fiat currency.

In addition to Bitcoin investment moves, Tesla posted a net income of $ 438 million in Q1 2021, a new all-time record. Earnings per share were 93 cents on revenues of $ 10.39 billion. Representatives from the company led by Elon Musk also said they expect vehicle deliveries to increase by more than 50% this year. This equates to a supply potential of approximately 750,000 new vehicles this year.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been continuing the bounce from the level of $47,060. The bulls has managed to bounce through the level of $52,039, which is the technical resistance for the price and now are trying to make another higher high at the level of $54,719. The next immediate target is seen at the level of $55,501 and then at the level of $60,000. The momentum is currently neutral and any breakout into the positive territory might extend the bounce to the level of $57,330.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $62,642
WR2 - $60,057
WR1 - $52,987

Weekly Pivot - $50,187
WS1 - $42,706
WS2 - $40,371
WS3 - $33,169


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction from $64,789 to $47,060 the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin has risen sharply by $5,000, but there is no positive news for it



The first trading day of the week ended in a good plus for bitcoin: +$5 100. This is an excellent result even for bitcoin, which almost every day passes for 3-4 thousand dollars, or even more. At the moment, many traders and investors are at a crossroads on what to do. On the one hand, the correction is clearly not over yet, as indicated by technical indicators and signals. While on the other hand, it is tempting to start buying bitcoin again in the hope of a new round of upward movement.

Here, it is necessary to pay attention to three points at once. First, a sharp rise after a sharp fall is hardly the beginning of a new round of the upward trend. Yesterday's candlestick looks like an attempt by buyers to bring the upward trend back to life. But that doesn't mean they succeeded. Second, the last three local highs are $58,000, $61,669, and $64,749. This means that each new round of the upward movement is only slightly stronger than the previous correction and weaker than the previous round of the upward movement. This fact still suggests that the upward trend is either completed or will end in the near future (unless something unexpected happens). Third, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains quite weak at the moment. Recall that the last round of the fall had very specific reasons. First, accidents and explosions were reported at several coal mines in China, which led to a power outage in the country's most "mining" district of Xinjiang. Then, it became known that the US Treasury is preparing large fines for several financial organizations for money laundering through bitcoin. Later, it was reported that the Turkish authorities completely banned payment within the country for goods and services in cryptocurrencies. And last of all, Joe Biden is going to increase taxes for the rich, in particular the capital tax, which will also include investments in bitcoin. Moreover, it should be doubled.

There is no positive news yet. Every day, one or another crypto expert gives another forecast that bitcoin will rise in price to $100,000 or higher. But you must remember that most of these crypto experts are simply interested in bitcoin continuing to grow. From our point of view, the correction is not yet complete, it is just that "digital gold" has been declining for 10 days and it was already necessary to correct against the correction. Thus, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, the fall in the quotes of the number one cryptocurrency in the world may resume.



In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be under the critical line, but has gained a foothold back inside the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the cryptocurrency quotes returned above the level of $50,770. However, do not despair ahead of time. Below the critical line, the chances of continuing the correction remain very decent. Plus, do not forget that the quotes left the ascending channel.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin on track for fastest growth since February because of Elon Musk



Bitcoin is on its way to the biggest and fastest rise, all the fault of a post on Twitter by the main newsmaker in the world of cryptocurrency, Elon Musk. This was done in order to restore faith in cryptocurrencies after the sharp fall of BTC.

After almost two weeks of decline, bitcoin rose to $53,171 with a fantastic 5.81 percent gain. "What does the future hold?" Tesla's Technoking asked the question via Twitter, referring to the famous bitcoin and crypto joke on the internet that originated in 2013. The word "hold" was deliberately misspelled - "hodl", referring to a buzzword online.

This latest sign of Elon's love comes ahead of Tesla's quarterly results, which will be its first since the company's $1.5 billion purchase of bitcoin. For most of April, Musk made cryptic posts on Twitter about BTC and cryptocurrency in general, the same technique used by Musk before announcing his major bitcoin purchase in early February. In addition to bitcoin, dogecoin was also mentioned.

Fear and indecision, which spread at the speed of light across the network, became the catalysts for the mass sales of bitcoin over the past week. Various negative factors have greatly affected bitcoin: the US Treasury filed a lawsuit against private money institutions for money laundering, the governments of Turkey and India prohibit the use of cryptocurrency in their countries, President Joe Biden introduces new taxes, and the Chinese province was de-energized.

According to expert data, today will be the seventh quarterly profit of the company Tesla. Meanwhile, on the first day of the week, bitcoin stocks and other crypto-focused stocks also went up.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021