Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

The increase in taxes in the US can stop the upward trend of bitcoin for many years



Over the past day, nothing extraordinary has happened in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin tried to continue its downward movement but quickly pulled back from local lows around $ 47,500. However, it is not necessary to conclude the completion of the correction after one day. The fall of even such an instrument as bitcoin to the level of $ 20,000 - $ 30,000 can take a year or even two. Although the volatility of cryptocurrency remains very high, it is still not a quick process. It should only be remembered that bitcoin has already lost $ 15,000 in value over the past ten days. And this is a lot. We believe that the decline will continue in the long term. At least, at the moment, there are no prerequisites for the correction to end. The "technique" shows that a correction is more likely. The "foundation" is not on the side of the "cue ball" now. On Friday, it became known about another news that clearly will not increase investors' demand for bitcoin.

Joe Biden and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an initiative to raise taxes on the rich, particularly on capital gains. Simply put, the profits from any investment will now be taxed at twice the tax rate. We are talking about a possible increase in the tax rate to 40%-55%. So far, the relevant legislation has not yet been adopted, so this is only an initiative. Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also spoke about the possible introduction of a global single corporate tax, and Joe Biden - about a potential increase in the number of taxes for large corporations and wealthy Americans. Thus, with a high probability, taxes in the States will be raised, and it seems that this is how the government will extract excess liquidity from the markets. Recall that the US government has approved several stimulus packages worth more than $ 4 trillion over the past year alone. This "extra" money immediately settled in the cryptocurrency market. Over time, they will most likely be withdrawn from the economy and with the help of rich Americans and large corporations. However, for now, this means that investors may soon start revaluing their assets and reallocating cash. It means that the most profitable assets may begin to be in less demand because the level of profitability will decrease due to taxes. However, the level of risk will remain the same. Therefore, the outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market is now quite a possible development. Of course, so far, this is only an assumption of what may happen in the next year or two. However, bitcoin is already under severe pressure due to several negative fundamental factors.



In technical terms, the "cue ball" continues to be below the critical line and in the near future may gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line. It is already clear that the support level of $ 50,770 will be overcome. Thus, the chances of a further decline in bitcoin in the area of $ 43,850 are growing. Now it is time to talk not just about a downward correction but about a new long-term downward trend.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
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