Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin indicators sank past $50,000 mark. What awaits cryptocurrency in the near future?

The indicators of the first cryptocurrency continue to move downward, and the asset is at risk of falling to record lows. In the next few days, bitcoin quotes may drop to $42,000, or they can hold on to safe positions and stop a protracted correction. However, the immediate future of the asset is influenced by a huge number of factors, some of which can form quite suddenly.

After setting new historical records, the entire market, and especially BTC, was covered by a wave of price correction. The situation was aggravated by the news of tightening control over cryptocurrencies, as well as a complete rejection of digital assets in Turkey. Due to a combination of factors, the indicators of bitcoin have continued their downward movement for the fifth day, which risks escalating into the largest collapse in asset quotes. Over the past 24 hours, the BTC/USD pair has fallen in price by 8.7%, which led to a drop in daily trading volumes to $96.5 billion. Bitcoin has broken through the important mark of $50,000 and is quoted at $49,500 as of 10:00 UTC. Due to the sharp decline, the total capitalization of the first cryptocurrency fell to $917 billion. The total losses of traders of various crypto exchanges amounted to about $3.7 billion, and the largest individual loss reached $11.3 million.



Despite the end of the working week and the imminent easing of market pressure, bitcoin may continue to fall. This may be due to a reduction in the asset's performance beyond the vital limit of $50,000. If in the near future the cryptocurrency will not be able to return to the mark above $50,000, then we can expect a further reduction in bitcoin indicators to $45,000-$42,000. It is in this range that the maximum support for the cryptocurrency is concentrated. It is unlikely that bitcoin will not stay at $42,000, given the strong support of the market, as well as the growing demand due to the ability to enter the asset at acceptable levels and expect further profit.

However, if bitcoin still fails to gain a foothold at the $42,000 mark, then the correction will be even deeper. The crypto asset may sink to a record low in recent times at $30,000. JPMorgan strategists predicted that bitcoin quotes will continue to decline to $40,000, and the investment director of Guggenheim Partners even stated that BTC is expected to fall in price by 50%, to a level of $20,000. For the most part, these assumptions are based on the previous experience of the fall in BTC and the too rapid growth of the asset, which provokes an equally rapid and volatile correction. However, as of April 23, the situation is moving precisely in this disappointing direction.



At the same time, the market is dominated by a positive mood associated with numerous investments, as well as the continued expansion of the capabilities of individual coins (ETH, NFT, DOT, ADA). Despite the deep correction of the first cryptocurrency, it is technical in nature due to many factors. Most likely, all other things being equal, bitcoin's indicators would have stayed at around $50,000 and will soon continue to grow. The first cryptocurrency was at attractive frontiers for new investors to enter the asset. However, problems with fees, as well as a record low speed of transactions, neutralized the growing interest in cryptocurrency. Based on this, we can expect two scenarios for the development of events. With the first, more favorable, bitcoin will be able to return to the safe level of $50,000, due to the growing demand for BTC retailers over the weekend, as well as the lack of the usual pressure from the classic markets. In the second scenario, the cryptocurrency indicators continue their downward movement to the safe range of $42,000-$45,000, where they have significant chances to change the bearish trend.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC may slump to $20,000 and skyrocket to new record highs.



Some analysts expect a drop in bitcoin caused by an extremely fast increase to $65,000 from $10,000. Now, BTC has all chances to slide to $20,000 in order to skyrocket to new all-time highs. In the near future, the first cryptocurrency is likely to fall twofold.

Analysts believe that it is just a downward correction that should not cause concerns as this situation took place several years ago. This is a kind of evolution of a bullish trend. Bitcoin needs to fall in order to accelerate its growth up to $500,000. However, it may reach such levels even without a drop.

A jump in BTC after the current slump will depend on whether big investors and global companies accept bitcoin as a means of payment. For example, Tesla and Visa have already allowed their customers to pay in bitcoins. The more companies add bitcoin to their portfolios, the faster it will reach $100,000. Nevertheless, the current drop is really important. Most analysts do not even worry about the fact that the cryptocurrency may repeat its movement in 2017. Then, it soared to its record high of $19,000 and later tumbled by almost 75%.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin breaks below cloud support for the first time since it traded back at $10,500.

As we explained in our last Bitcoin analysis, Bitcoin is trading above the Ichimoku cloud since it was trading around $11,000. The last time that price broke down below the cloud support was when it was trading around $10,500. Since then price has made an impressive rally to $65,000 and as we warned, price is now turning lower.



Today price is breaking below the Daily Cloud support. This is an important bearish signal. This implies that a correction period starts for Bitcoin. After such break downs we usually see more selling and then a back test of the cloud from below. So even if Bitcoin falls towards $40,000 it would not be a surprise to see a bounce higher towards $50,000 to test the cloud from below. On thing is for sure, this is not a short-term pull back, this is not a short-term correction. We will most probably enter a multi week period of consolidation and correction lower for Bitcoin prices. Our first target area was at $40,000. Traders need to be very cautious.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading lower at $48,727 level at the time of writing and it seems determined to approach and reach new lows after activating a larger corrective phase. Technically, BTC/USD has escaped from a reversal pattern, so the decline is natural.

The price has moved sideways in the short term, that's why we needed confirmation before going short on Bitcoin. As long as BTC/USD drops, the altcoins are expected to drop as well.

Bitcoin plunged by 12.77% since yesterday's low and it looks like that the sell-off is far from being over.


BTC/USD ACCELERATES ITS DROP!


As you already know from my analysis, Bitcoin was expected to decline after breaking down from the Major Rising Wedge pattern. I've told you in my previous analyses that BTC/USD will develop a larger decline only after the rate closes below $51,300 low.

BTC/USD registered a new lower low in the early morning activating a larger decline in the short term. Now, it's traded below $50,305 static support and under the S1 ($50,069.49). Technically, the next downside target is seen at the descending pitchfork's lower median line (lml). The area between $43,016 and $41,986 is seen as a major support area that could stop Bitcoin's decline.


BITCOIN OUTLOOK!
Selling now is risky as the BTC/USD could increase a little to test and retest the broken levels before resuming its decline. Stabilizing below the weekly S1 ($50,069) could bring us a new bearish signal.

A temporary distribution below the S1 and several false breakouts above it could really signal that Bitcoin may extend its decline.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin fell by $16,000 and continues to rush down



In recent days, we have regularly talked about the fact that the upward trend is weakening. This was clearly visible in the general trend and in each subsequent price peak that was at a smaller distance from the previous ones. Also, what supports a strong correction of bitcoin is the fact that the cryptocurrency has already broken all price records, and has been rising in price for more than a year now. And for this year, there were few strong corrections. Thus, no asset in the world can become more expensive all the time. In recent days, it has been noticeable that the influx of new investors has dried up, and some rather negative news for the cryptocurrency world has only made the situation worse. First came news of accidents at coal mines in Xinjiang, China, which is the region where the largest amount of mining capacity is concentrated. Then, it became known that the US Treasury is going to fine several serious financial institutions for possible money laundering with the use of bitcoin. And then, bitcoin was hit by a massive sell-off.

At first, there was only a round of correction to the support level of $50,770. Now, after two days of pause, although not an upward correction, bitcoin quotes again rushed down. It will be possible to signal about overcoming the support level of $50,770 only at the end of the day, that is, for example, tomorrow. If this overcoming happens, the chances of a further fall in the cryptocurrency will increase significantly. Although, we believe that the decline will continue in any case. Just the other day, we compared the last two ups of the bitcoin exchange rate in 2013 and 2017 and concluded that the current growth is very similar to those two. And in the first two times, always after a rapid growth, a slower decline began, which led to a loss of 80-90% of the value. We believe that approximately the same thing can happen now, but not in 1-2 weeks. Perhaps, it will take at least a year to fall to 10-20 thousand dollars per coin.

Meanwhile, Guggenheim Partners investment director Scott Minerd warned that the correction for bitcoin can be up to 50% of the current value, which means that the quotes, in his opinion, can fall in the range of $20,000 – $30,000 per coin. He said this in an interview with CNBC, not forgetting to add that bitcoin has grown very much in too short a period of time. According to him, the market at this time is very "playful" and grows only on emotions. "I think we could pull back to $20,000 to $30,000 on bitcoin, which would be a 50% decline, but the interesting thing about bitcoin is we've seen these kinds of declines before," Minerd said. In his opinion, in the future, the price will continue to rise, and the fair price of bitcoin may be $400,000 - 600,000.



In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be below the critical line and in the near future may gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line. Now, it is already clear that the support level of $50,770 will be overcome, and most likely, the Senkou Span B line, too. Ergo, the chances of a further decline in bitcoin in the area of $43,850 are growing. Now, it is time to talk not just about a downward correction, but about a new long-term downward trend.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 23, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Baillie Gifford, a 110-year-old asset management firm known for its early investments in companies like Tesla, has invested $ 100 million in Blockchain.com's leading cryptocurrency wallet service.

Blockchain.com co-founder and CEO Peter Smith announced on Wednesday that Baillie Gifford's contribution of $ 300 million in March became the largest single investment in the company so far. Smith stated that Baillie Gifford's participation in the round marked "one of their first investments in a crypto firm."

"It is also confirmation that a sustainable and diversified retail / institutional business has tremendous growth potential in the coming years," wrote the CEO.

With over $ 445 billion in assets under management, Baillie Gifford has emerged as a leading technology investor, gaining nearly $ 28 billion, betting early on Tesla and Alibaba and the pharmaceutical company Moderna. Baillie Gifford, one of Tesla's largest outside investors, made $ 16 billion in profit from Tesla's investment alone in August 2020. The company is also known for supporting companies such as Google, Amazon and Airbnb.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a sharp reversal again, just after a new all time high was made at the level of $2,639. The local low was made at the level of $2,124 (at the time of writing the article), so the bears had broken below the support located at $2,500 and $2,276 (now those levels will act as a technical resistance). The next target for bears is seen at the level of $2,098 and $1,941. The weak and negative momentum supports the bearish short-term outlook for ETH. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,314
WR2 - $2,282
WR1 - $2,524

Weekly Pivot - $2,211
WS1 - $1,914
WS2 - $1,617
WS3 - $1,300


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,000, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 23, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The investment director of investment giant Guggenheim reiterated his warning that Bitcoin would drop to $ 20,000:

"Given the massive movement we've seen in Bitcoin in the short term, the situation is very tense and I think we will see a major correction in Bitcoin," Minerd said in a TV interview.

Bitcoin remained close to $ 52,000 on April 22, after bouncing back from $ 48,000 following the recent decline.

For Minerd, who recently argued in January that BTC / USD would return to $ 20,000, such an event would be part of the normal market cycle. He said his long-term forecast of $ 400,000 for Bitcoin is still valid today.

"I think we could go back to $ 20,000 to $ 30,000 in Bitcoin, which would be a 50% drop, but the interesting thing about Bitcoin is that we've seen these kinds of drops before," he continued.

Minerd, who previously raised controversy over his comments on the BTC price, was not the only one in his bearish short-term forecast. JPMorgan Chase analysts also made an alarm this week with concerns focused on the futures markets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a swing low at the level of $48,573, which is a 61% Fibonacci extension of the last wave down. The market has broken below the key short-term technical support located at the level of $49,269 and the outlook remains bearish. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $46,371 and 445,710. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $52,039.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $77,128
WR2 - $70,098
WR1 - $62,765

Weekly Pivot - $56,867
WS1 - $48,657
WS2 - $42,481
WS3 - $34,723


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin shows signs of weakness using the Ichimoku cloud indicator.

Bitcoin is trading near $53,000 price level after making a high last week around $64,760. We have warned several times before that despite price making higher highs, the RSI was giving bearish divergence signals by making lower highs. Today we have confirmation by the Ichimoku cloud indicator that Bitcoin is expected to start a correction soon.



In our previous analysis using the Ichimoku cloud indicator we warned bulls that they need to defend the cloud. Price has been trading above the cloud since it was back at $11,000. By breaking inside the cloud trend changes to neutral from bullish. This increases the chances of a move lower towards the lower cloud boundary around $49,300. A break below this level will increase chances even more for a deeper correction towards $40,000 and lower.



On a weekly basis price is about to close below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). When this is the case, price usually pulls back towards the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). The kijun-sen is now at $38,745. Bulls need to be very cautious as the next few weeks could be bad for Bitcoin and we might see a deep correction towards $35,000-$40,000 area.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD, for April 22 - 23, 2021: Bearish outlook to 34,340



The Bitcoin BTC/USD, in daily charts, the outlook is bearish, we notice a change of scenario given that the SMA of 21 (58640) is located above the trading price, and the support of the EMA of 200 is located at (34,339)

This daily analysis shows that Bitcoin could prepare for a medium-term correction that could fall to support levels of 34,339, the first reason being that it has broken its uptrend channel that began on January 27, 2021.

A consolidation below 59,000 and the psychological level of 50,000 in a short time could be expected, but the sharp break of some of these range points for a new move either bullish or bearish.

For now our recommendation is to sell below the SMA of 21, whenever there is a bounce to this zone, with objects at 50,000 and lower if this psychological level is broken.

On the contrary, in daily charts a consolidation above the 60,000 level, we could expect a new maximum levels of 70,000 and 76000 in the medium term, therefore the key is to watch the 59,000 area for any market scenario.


Support And Resistance Levels For April 22 - 30, 2021
Resistance (1) $56,376
Resistance (2) $58,141
Resistance (3) $59,279

Support (1) $52,637
Support (2) $49,572
Support (3) $43,068




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 22, 2021

XRP/USD is trading around $1.30. Short-term trend remains bearish as price is still below key resistance trend line. Since April 18th price is mostly moving sideways. Price has formed a triangle pattern. Traders need to keep a close eye on the triangle boundaries for additional signals.



Green rectangles- horizontal resistance levels

Red rectangle - horizontal support level

Red lines -Fibonacci retracements

Blue line- lower triangle boundary

Black line - resistance trend line

XRP/USD will soon see volatility increase. Soon we will have either a sell off towards $1-$0.90 or a break upwards and a move at least towards $1.70-$1.80. Price has already retraced 61.8% of the upward move and break out from $0.55. The decline from $1.97 seems corrective. I expect in the medium- to long-term to see at least one more big upward move. Breaking above $1.40 could be the first sign of strength and first step of such a move. If however the triangle breaks to the downside I expect price to reach $1-$0.90 zone for the final low. As long as price is below the black trend line bears remain in control.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021