Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 4th. Bearish divergence stops the growth of bitcoin

Bitcoin 4H.


On Tuesday, Bitcoin tried to continue growth in the direction of the peak of August 20. But the resulting bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the quotes of the "cue ball" to suspend its growth. Now, I expect a decline in the BTC rate to the correction level of 61.8% ($10,256), from which the growth began the day before. I still think that under the current conditions of fundamental factors, bitcoin's growth is small, despite all the stunning forecasts of crypto experts who predict an increase of almost up to $100,000 per coin. However, no news would cause additional demand for BTC or, conversely, the sale of "cue ball". Thus, I am more inclined towards the option with consolidation below the Fibo level of 61.8% and a further fall. However, this option, like any other, needs to find confirmation.

Also, an important factor in the possible fall of bitcoin in the coming days and even weeks is the fact that trading volumes are not growing recently, respectively, the market does not have an influx of new investors. There are no "hamsters" or one-day investors. The last important technical factor: since August 6, each subsequent top of the quotes is lower than the previous one, which means the weakening of the bulls' positions in the market. Accordingly, much depends on the peak of August 20. Its breakthrough will give strength to the bulls, and then Bitcoin can soar to $12,260.

The bitcoin information background is now empty. Yes, cryptocurrency can respond to the next Fed meeting, on which Powell may again lower its key rate. It can react to a new escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China, if it, of course, happens. It can respond to any geopolitical tension. But so far this is not all, and it is unlikely that the news about the theft of 200 BTC with the help of a modified bitcoin wallet interests traders.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8%, but bearish divergence casts doubt on further growth. I recommend selling cryptocurrency if it closes at 61.8% ($10256), and the bearish divergence does not cancel, with the target of $9788 (76.4% Fibo).

I recommend buying bitcoin with the target area of $10907 - $11089, and with a stop-loss level of $10256 if the closing is performed above the peak of the bearish divergence at CCI.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
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