Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Decline Expected!

Bitcoin shows exhausted signals in the short term. Its drop under the immediate uptrend line signals that BTC/USD could develop a corrective phase. Technically, the price was somehow expected to decline after failing to approach and reach the 61,788 all-time high.

You should know that Bitcoin's potential drop may bring sharp declines on altcoins as well. A corrective phase on BTC/USD could be natural and normal after the major upwards movement.

The current decline, retreat, could help the buyers go long on Bitcoin again. Most likely we'll have a great buying opportunity after this drop.


BTC/USD CORRECTION PHASE SIGNALED


BTC/USD plunged through the uptrend line and below 53,221 static support after a new rejection from the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml). The price increased a little to test the Pivot Point (57,045) and the upper median line (uml) before dropping deeper.

Technically, the price was expected to decline after several false breakouts through the upper median line (uml). The current breakdown through the uptrend line and below 53,221 triangle's support announces more declines ahead.

It is trapped within a minor down channel between the upper median line (uml) and the upside 50% Fibonacci line, so it could move and approach fresh new lows as long as it stays inside of this pattern.

Bitcoin may register a sharp drop, sell-off if it drops and stabilizes under the 50% Fibonacci line, and below the S2 (49,685). This scenario could lead the price towards the median line (ml) or lower to 41,986.


BITCOIN FORECAST!

The current breakdown through S1, 53,221, and below the uptrend line represents a selling opportunity with the first target at S2 (49,685).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 25, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin bulls might be back after printing lows around $51,500 mark today, and are looking poised to push higher above $61,780 mark to complete the overall trend that had begun since $3,850 lows in March 2020. Probability of another high remains until prices stay above $43,000 lows, but please kindly note that the crypto might produce a meaningful corrective drop thereafter.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading at day's high around $52,700 levels at this point in writing as bulls remain poised to push higher above $61,780 in the near term. Also note that a sideways consolidation between $45,000 and $55,000 remains possible before breaking higher. Immediate support comes in at $43,000 mark, while resistance is intact around $62,000 levels respectively.

The larger trend from $3,850 lows registered in March 2020 might be close to terminating/completing with one more high above $61,780 levels. A pullback thereafter could drag prices back towards $40,000/42,000 levels before resuming the uptrend. If prices drop below $43,000 from here, the next support is seen towards $37,000 levels, going forward.


Trading plan:

Remain long with stop @ $43,000, target above $62000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for March 25,.2021 - Strong selling pressure and potential for test of $47.500

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that sellers entered stronlgy on the last rally as I warned yesterday, I still see downside movement towards $47.500.My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at the price of $47.500.I see no any sign of reversal, which is another indication for the further downside continuation.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $53.150

Support level: $47.500




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum breaks below $1,600 approaching our first target

Ethereum has broken below the support neck line of $1,700 and as we mentioned in our last analysis, price was back testing the break down area. A rejection off the resistance of $1,700 that was once support, would lead to a new lower low and eventually towards $1,500.



Green line - trend line support (broken)

Red line- resistance

Red rectangle - neckline support

Blue lines - expected size of decline if price breaks neckline

ETH/USD is trading at $1,568 and short-term trend is bearish. The first warning signal to bulls came when price broke the upward sloping green trend line. The second warning signal and most important bearish signal so far came when price broke below $1,720-$1,700 support area. Then we gave $1,500 as short-term target. Yesterday price back tested the resistance that was once support and is moving lower towards our first target. So far price has fallen as low as $1,544. If that level is broken, we should expect Ethereum to continue lower towards $1,500 and $1,430. Resistance at $1,700 remains key for the short-term trend. As long as we trade below it, price is vulnerable.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin pulls back towards $50,000.

In our recent posts about Bitcoin we warned bulls to be very cautious despite the new all time highs. Price was making new higher highs but the RSI did not. This was a clear warning for bulls that the momentum was weakening. In a previous analysis on Bitcoin we also mentioned that as long as price was trading above $56,000 short-term trend would remain bullish and that price should not break out of the bullish channel.



Blue upward sloping lines - bullish short-term channel

blue line - bearish divergence

BTC/USD has broken out of the bullish short-term channel. Bulls were warned. Price is now making lower lows and lower highs as it approaches the $50,000 level. Here we find the first short-term support area and next at $43,000.



Blue line - bearish divergence

In the Daily chart above we can clearly see the bearish divergence by the RSI as price was making higher highs. Bulls need to be very cautious as we might see a bigger than normal correction in cryptocurrencies over the next couple of months. Price has broken the lower red trend line and is vulnerable to reaching the $43,000-$45,000 level. Major Fibonacci support is at the 38% level or $39,850. Buying dips currently might be very risky as we could be at the beginning of a bigger correction. Traders need to be cautious and patient for a bottom to be formed and a reversal confirmed, before calling a low.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

India to criminalize bitcoin ownership. Central Bank of Norway urges its citizens not to join bitcoin hype



The number one cryptocurrency in the world has started a new round of correction, and, from our point of view, this round was logical and should be stronger than the previous ones. The problem for bitcoin right now is that the fundamental background for this cryptocurrency has deteriorated dramatically. If in January-February, market participants were ready to carry money to cryptocurrency exchanges to buy any number of coins simply because Elon Musk or Tesla does so, now many investors believe that bitcoin is already too expensive to buy at current levels. As we have already said, no asset can rise in price forever. And such an asset as bitcoin may well fall by 80-90 percent at any time. So why buy it now at $55,000-$60,000 per coin, if you can wait for the next drop and buy it much cheaper?

This may be the logic of large investors and institutions. Moreover, it was reported last week that miners no longer believe in further growth of the bitcoin in the current cycle and are ready to get rid of their stocks. As we said earlier, the sale/purchase of a relatively small number of coins (up to 10,000) can cause a 1% change in the exchange rate. Thus, if all the miners rush to sell bitcoin, the rate can sink very seriously. Moreover, the fall of bitcoin will cause a chain reaction in the markets and a "domino effect". Small traders and investors will definitely start to immediately get rid of their stocks, fearing to lose profits. Only institutions and large investors who can afford to keep bitcoin in their portfolios for many years can resist its fall.

Meanwhile, authorities in India want to completely ban the mining, storage, transfer, and trading of digital currencies. According to Reuters, a bill is already under development that would criminalize all of the above transactions with bitcoin or its counterparts. If this bill is passed (and there is no doubt about it), then all owners of cryptocurrencies will receive about 6 months to liquidate their assets. Thus, India may become the first country with a large economy to completely ban the circulation and storage of cryptocurrencies. However, many experts have already stated that this will not affect the owners of cryptocurrencies themselves because a piece of code can be stored anywhere, and how the Indian government is going to track the movement of bitcoins and interpret the transfers of "digital money" in foreign accounts is not yet clear. The main thing is that some countries are slowly beginning to declare war on bitcoin.

At the same time, the governor of the Central Bank of Norway, Oystein Olsen, said that bitcoin is "too unstable and expensive", and also urged the people of Norway not to use bitcoin as a means of storage and payment. Olsen does not believe that digital money can displace fiat money, which is controlled by central banks. "The main task of the central bank, as well as its currency, is to ensure the stability of money and the system, and bitcoin does not perform these functions," Olsen said in an interview with Bloomberg. Also, the governor does not believe that bitcoin will pose a threat to central banks.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 25 - 26, 2021: Key level 50,000



The Bitcoin (BTC / USD), is down for the fifth day in a row against the dollar, having found support at the psychological level of 50,000, and at the bottom of the downtrend channel.

Jerome Powell's comments deflated investors' spirits, in which he compared Bitcoin more to gold, which, with the dollar, investors of this asset did not like.

In 4-hour charts, BTC is trading below the SMA of 21 and below the EMA of 200, with a negative bias, which, if it fails to exceed 53,500, the potential decline points to 43,750.

The 50,000 support is key since it is a psychological level and a very strong support, a rebound in this area will give us a good opportunity to buy with targets at 53,225 and 56,250.

Conversely, a break below 50,000 we recommend selling with Murray 7/8 targets located at 43,750.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 25 - 26, 2021

Resistance (1) $52,225
Resistance (2) $53,981
Resistance (3) $62,728

Support (1) $49,974
Support (2) $48,230
Support (3) $46,636





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021