Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 23, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin slips to $52,900 levels today and we are not surprised. A drop further below $52,600 would confirm that a meaningful top is in place at $61,781 mark over the last week and also bears are back in control. The crypto would be a good case to be sold on rallies thereafter with risk above $62,000 mark. Aggressive traders might have initiated shorts already as suggested yesterday from around $57,000 levels.

The crypto has pulled off day's lows and is seen trading around $54,400 mark but remains vulnerable for yet another drop below $52,600 at least. Immediate resistance remains fixed at $61,781 levels, while support comes in around $43,300 levels respectively. If a lower high is already in place at $60,000 levels, the next short term projected target could be towards $43,000 levels, going forward.

As discussed yesterday, the overall uptrend continues to remain intact for now and Bitcoin should be well supported around $37,700 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of entire rally between $3,850 and $61,780 mark. Only a sustained drop below $24,000/25,000 and subsequently below the trend line support will be encouraging for bears to continue further.


Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop @ 62,000 target @ 37,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 23, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Cristiano Ronaldo became the first footballer to be awarded in crypto for his career achievements. The Juventus star Turin received 770 JUV chips, one for each goal scored in a senior career, Spanish Marca reports.

JUV is the official Juventus fan token, launched in 2019 by the Italian club, on the Chiliz blockchain in conjunction with the Socios.com platform. These tokens give fans the opportunity to vote on the club's decisions, while giving them access to various privileges, competitions and prizes.

The prize of 770 JUV tokens awarded to Ronaldo ahead of Sunday's league game against Benevento is worth around $ 11,750.

While the former star of Manchester United and Real Madrid probably won't need funding anytime soon, it's worth noting that this is the first time a cryptocurrency has been awarded to a footballer as a career achievement award. The growing link between sports and cryptocurrency has made several clubs flirt with the concept of paying players in whole or in part in crypto for some time.

Dozens of soccer teams have been broadcasting fan tokens on the Chiliz blockchain since the beginning, including some of the biggest teams from the biggest leagues in the world such as Manchester City, FC Barcelona and PSG.

The value of Chiliz's native token, CHZ, was a response to the violent actions recently launched by some soccer teams. Since January 1 alone, CHZ's dollar value has risen by more than 2,500%, while its market capitalization has risen from $ 100 million to $ 4.5 billion before falling to $ 3.2 billion.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken below the key short-term technical support located at the level of $1,721 and is approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,618. The momentum is weak and negative, so the bears had hit the intraday technical support at the level of $1,648 already and keep pushing lower. Please notice, the violation of 50% Fibonacci retracement opens the road towards 61% retracement located at $1,541. Only a strong breakout back above $1,729 would terminate the sell-off and put the bulls back into control again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,051
WR2 - $1,965
WR1 - $1,890

Weekly Pivot - $1,807
WS1 - $1,707
WS2 - $1,636
WS3 - $1,545


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 23, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
While Bitcoin is too volatile to be money, it can be a "substitute for gold," said the chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Speaking on Monday at an event hosted by Bank for International Settlements, Jerome Powell responded to questions about cryptocurrency. When asked if he believed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to pose a threat to financial stability, Powell cited known arguments that had long come from older financial data.

Crypto assets are very volatile and therefore not really useful or trustworthy as a store of value and not backed by anything, he stated, continuing:

"They're more of a speculative asset, so they're not particularly used as a currency. Basically, they're a substitute for gold, not for the dollar."

Powell's words provide some of the most direct Fed views of Bitcoin in recent times, and are based on the outlook offered in 2019. They also appear weeks after new Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen clarified her concerns about decentralized cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair is slowly approaching the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $52,213. The technical support at the level of $53,290 had been broken and the bearish pressure is visible. On the other hand, the bulls might still try to rally above the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $58,223, so any breakout above this line will be considered as bullish with a target at $60,000 and above. The momentum is now weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook. The longer term trend is still up and intact.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $68,853
WR2 - $64,700
WR1 - $61,327

Weekly Pivot - $57,323
WS1 - $54,318
WS2 - $49,983
WS3 - $46,876


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Could Michael Saylor have influenced Elon Musk's Bitcoin Purchase?



In a recent interview with Time, Michael Saylor said that he believed his Twitter conversation with Elon Musk late last year inspired the Tesla CEO to make a huge bitcoin purchase.

Musk tweeted an infamous image of a monk trying to ignore a pretty girl who had the word "Bitcoin" written on her buttocks.

Saylor responded to the tweet and said that Musk should do Tesla shareholders "a $ 100 billion favor" and convert Tesla's balance sheet from dollars to Bitcoin. Musk replied: "Are such big deals even possible?"

"Yes, I have purchased over $ 1.3 billion worth of #BTC in recent months, and I will be happy to share with you my offline action plans from one rocket scientist to another."

It was on February 8 of this year, that it became apparent that Musk and Tesla had actually bought $ 1.5 billion worth of bitcoin with cash from the balance sheet. It was also announced that Tesla will start accepting bitcoin as payment for its electric vehicles.

Finally, Saylor was asked if Bitcoin could just be an "irrational abundance." His answer was:

"No, it's the opposite. This is a textbook example of rational action in response to monetary inflation."

He added that Bitcoin was not speculation and in fact it was a unique new technology. He said he would like Bitcoin to be recognized as a legitimate asset class.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Jordan Belfort predicts that Bitcoin will hit $100,000, while Bobby Lee predicts $300,000



The price of the world's number one cryptocurrency can reach $300,000 per coin, says the former head of the BTCC cryptocurrency exchange, Bobby Lee. He did not clarify what period of time this figure is achievable, but he did note that the cryptocurrency can cross the $100,000 mark per coin this summer. According to the former head of the exchange, the bull cycle for bitcoin occurs every 4 years and now the cryptocurrency is just inside such a rise, which is characterized by its impressive scale. However, Lee believes that the "bubble" will burst sooner or later. This can happen after reaching the mark of $300,000 per coin, which is unlikely to happen earlier than in five years. Nevertheless, the former CEO warns that the value of bitcoin may fall by 80-90%. But this is obvious to anyone who knows at least a little about cryptocurrencies. We have repeatedly said that cryptocurrencies are not confirmed by anything, and in general, they are just useless pieces of code. Their value is determined only by the market's belief in them. But they don't have their own value, like gold, for example. Thus, in theory, the value of "digital gold" can drop even to zero. But so far, bitcoin is growing (in the medium term) due to the influx of institutions. Therefore, you can still make good money on this upward movement. The main thing is to remember that trading bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency without a Stop Loss is deadly.

Jordan Belfort, the former head of the now-defunct stock exchange, also expressed his opinion. He admitted that he had previously taken the wrong position regarding bitcoin. Back in 2017, he predicted the fall of the cryptocurrency and guessed right with his forecast. Then bitcoin fell from $20,000 per coin by 80-90%. However, Belfort also believed that bitcoin will no longer be able to return to such high price levels and conquer new heights. According to the financier, the regulators should have destroyed all cryptocurrencies, since they were and are an ideal means for money laundering and terrorist financing. Also, according to Belfort, bitcoin is a "bubble," but at the same time a very attractive investment "bubble." It is due to its limited supply and strong growth at this time that it is extremely popular and has a serious consumer base. It is these factors that will allow it to eventually grow to $100,000 per coin. Earlier, Belfort has repeatedly criticized bitcoin, saying that it is dangerous for ordinary and not too well-versed in finance people. Belfort called bitcoin "the biggest scam in the world." According to him, it does not matter how much bitcoin costs, if you want to use it as a means of payment (after all, it was originally conceived for this purpose). However, its completely wild growth and unjustified current value are just proof that the cryptocurrency is not used as a means of payment. It is used for speculation. Belfort also drew attention to the fact that no matter what the total capitalization of bitcoin is, it does not matter, since the auction still involves from 2 to 10 million dollars in bitcoins, which is an absolutely minuscule part of the total number of coins. The vast majority of coins are "dead weight" on their wallets.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Why more and more large investors are choosing bitcoin and when will they start leaving this asset?



The world's number one cryptocurrency continues to trade near $60,000. The fact that the price does not go far down from this mark indicates the preservation of the bullish mood in the cryptocurrency market. However, as many independent experts say, who do not have hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins in their accounts and are not interested in the hype and growth of the cryptocurrency, sooner or later bitcoin will fall and may fall at least to zero. It's not a secret for anyone that bitcoin is an investment tool with a super yield at this time. However, the fact that bitcoin has grown so much over the past year, there is also a considerable amount of luck. Many experts agree that such a high demand for BTC was formed solely due to the pandemic crisis. Everyone knows that the crisis is for ordinary people and the rich continue to get richer in times of crisis. There are not so many classic investment tools in the world at the moment. If you will remove the very exotic, such as collectible bottles of alcohol or paintings by famous artists, then stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, deposits will remain. Unfortunately for many investors, deposits, stocks, and bonds are increasingly losing their investment appeal. Despite the fact that the US stock market continues to grow, the return on shares is not so great. Roughly speaking, stocks, bonds, gold, and so on are low-yield investments that are best used for the stability of the investment portfolio. However, I also want to get maximum profits, especially in times of crisis. And at this time, a new round of bitcoin growth begins. Small traders and investors (often ordinary people) begin to invest in cryptocurrency excess money accumulated during the pandemic, large private investors and institutions begin to invest in "digital gold" in the pursuit of super profits and in flight from inflation. These are the real reasons for the growth of BTC in the last year. Plus, it should be understood that bitcoin is also a very convenient investment tool. For example, it may take quite a long time to sell an expensive apartment and convert it into money. Bitcoin can be sold on any exchange at any time. Thus, many experts agree that the outflow of capital from bitcoin will begin when the profitability of more stable investment instruments like traditional instruments will begin to increase. As we said earlier, the outflow of capital from bitcoin in technical terms can be determined by overcoming the support of $ 52,300 and $ 43,000 - $ 44,000.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin to hit $ 300,000 or to crash this September?

Co-founder and former CEO of BTCC Bobby Lee noted that Bitcoin is now in an important segment of its cycle. That being said, he believes that price may reach higher than $ 100,000 this summer.

For the past seven years, Bitcoin has surged twice, during which it hit prices 20 times higher than the previous ones. Since the bullish trend is clearly not over, Lee believes that BTC will still grow. In particular, he predicts it will reach $ 300,000. Of course, he also anticipates an opposite scenario, although he believes much more on a further price increase.

Almost a year ago, Lee also projected BTC to reach $ 20,000. Then by December 2020, the main cryptocurrency really hit this level.

Now, Lee believes that price will jump to $ 300,000, and may reach $ 500,000 by 2028.

But Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of BTC.TOP expects a decreased demand by September, which will result in a strong market crash until June 2022.

It is unclear whose predictions are more likely to come true, but what is certain is that everything will depend on important factors, including the mood of market players.

Vaccinations, the lifting of quarantine restrictions and economic recovery may cause prices to decline, but if large players retain their interest in the market, then the bullish trend may drag on.

Earlier, Crypto expert Ton Weiss also noted that due to a temporary shortage of mining equipment, growth may continue temporarily in the market. But afterwards, there will be a long and large-scale correction.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Short-term technical analysis on Ethereum for March 22, 2021

ETH/USD is trading around $1,770 in a sideways pattern looking very similar to a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $1,720-$1,700. Short-term support trend line has been broken and price remains below key resistance. The $1,700-20 level is key for the short-term trend.



Green line - support

Red line - resistance

Red rectangle - support neckline

Blue lines - size of decline if neckline fails to hold

ETH/USD has broken the green trend line support. This is one bearish sign. Price remains below the red downward sloping trend line. This implies weakness to break resistance. Price however remains above the horizontal support and neckline (Red rectangle). This implies strength and consolidation. Resistance is at $1,840. Break this level and price will push to new highs. Break below the rectangle support area and we next see price around $1,510.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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When will the world see the new digital dollar Fedcoin? Nigeria and India's cryptocurrency ban

Wall Street is not thrilled that the financial services industry is preparing for the biggest shock in a decade. Investors and traders are watching closely as the US Federal Reserve is working on a new digital currency. The new digital dollar, which has already been dubbed - Fedcoin, will create a lot of problems for the entire banking system of the country, as well as for companies involved in financial services, for example, issuing credit cards. Operators of digital payment systems, nervously watching the Fed's efforts to create an electronic alternative to paper dollars, will not be left without shocks.



Fedcoin

It is expected that in July this year, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who are developing a platform for the digital dollar, will publish their research on this subject and the first results of their work. This was announced by James Cunha, who heads this project at the Boston Fed. Feeling a serious threat to future profits, a leading group of Wall Street banks has already approached the US Congress with a statement that they do not need a digital dollar. When some begin to panic gradually, trying to "put a spoke in the wheel", others act ahead of the curve. These are payment companies such as Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc., which have long been involved in introducing digital payments related to cryptocurrencies and blockchain into their systems. Also, Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc are trying to get the central bank to use the new digital currency in their systems. Financial giants are pressuring that a completely new platform and form of payment could interfere with the work of the entire current system. Although, in truth, most likely they are shaking only for their material gain, as it always was.

There is not much hype on this issue, as lawmakers, US Treasury officials, and the Federal Reserve have not yet approved the introduction of the US digital currency. Even after the final development of the platform and its successful test mode, it can take years to carry out all the work at the legislative level. Several issues should also be resolved: how the digital dollar will interact with the existing global payment network and how it will be introduced into it, what it will be tied to and what will be provided, etc.

If you quickly go over the digital currencies of other countries, then there is no special breakthrough in this direction yet. It was only in 2020 that the Bahamas launched a digital currency called the "sand dollar", but it is more of a "dollar" for a narrow circle of people. Brazil, which has been working on digitizing its real for a long time, plans to launch it in 2022. The Canadian authorities are still working on developing the infrastructure needed for the digital currency, but there are no plans to launch it yet.

Meanwhile, China is preparing to launch a pilot digital yuan only in 2022, while Japan is only planning to work on a digital currency. In the eurozone, they are only studying a potential "digital euro" to decide on its development in the future. And Russia is expected to have a pilot launch of the digital ruble this year.

Bans on cryptocurrencies in Nigeria and India

Now let's talk a little about the bans on cryptocurrency from Nigeria and India. Nigeria's central bank today issued a clarification to a statement released last month. It states that all financial institutions in the country must close all accounts related to cryptocurrency trading. On Sunday, a representative of the central bank said that the order should not be taken for a total ban. Instead, the bank will stick to the 2017 ban on cryptocurrency transactions, and nothing more. Central Bank of Nigeria deputy governor Adamu Lamtek also noted that the bank has never banned cryptocurrency activities in the country. "CBN has not imposed restrictions on the use of cryptocurrencies, and we are not discouraging people from trading them," Lamtek said.



As for India, the situation is rather delicate: the government says one thing, but acts quite another, so investors in India's digital assets are faced with even greater uncertainty amid new reports that the possibility of blocking the IP addresses of exchanges and companies trading cryptocurrencies is being considered. Although last week, statements were made that no one is going to achieve a complete national blocking of cryptocurrencies. Rumors about the possible entry into force of a ban on cryptocurrencies and mining up to criminal liability are not a joke. Recent statements by the authorities that the ban is not planned did not reassure investors, as changes in the regulatory framework do raise concerns and risks. Most recently, Minister of Finance Nirmala Sitharaman said: "On our part, we make it very clear that we are not closing all the possibilities for the use of cryptocurrencies. We will enable people to experiment with blockchain, bitcoin, or cryptocurrency, but within certain limits." Investors hope that the Indian authorities will not prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies, given the investment potential this direction carries.

Back in February, Indian cryptocurrency exchanges launched the #IndiaWantsBitcoin campaign, an initiative designed to convince parliament to regulate cryptocurrencies rather than impose a complete ban. Let me remind you that the Indian government plans to submit to the current session of parliament the consideration of a bill banning "private cryptocurrencies", although its test and scope remain a mystery to most.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, much depends on the behavior of investors at the level of $59,200. Its breakout will provoke a new large wave of growth with a return to the level of $60,000 and the subsequent renewal of historical highs around $62,000 and $65,000. It will be possible to talk about a downward correction in bitcoin only after the trading instrument drops below $54,400, which will lead to a rapid collapse in the area of $49,600 and $44,900.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 22 - 23, 2021: Key level $56,250



The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is consolidating between the range of $ 56,250 to $ 59,500, and above the psychological level of $ 50,000 as a support area. Today on Monday, it is trading below the SMA of 21, under pressure from the bearish channel.

In the 4-hour chart, we can see the uptrend of the BTC, it is still above the primary bullish channel, and above the +1/8 support of Murray, a sharp break below the channel would open the possibility of a fall up to 200 EMA located at $52,811 and below the $50,000 psychological level.

At this time, we recommend waiting for the confirmation of the break of $56,250, on the other hand, a pullback towards the top of the range around $58,900, there we can sell with targets at $56,250.

The eagle indicator is showing a bearish divergence, which if a quote below $56k, could have a correction to $50K.

By contrast, a sharp break above $59K, the target is Murray's +2/8 at 62,500.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 22 - 23, 2021

Resistance (1) $57,350
Resistance (2) $58,226
Resistance (3) $59,350

Support (1) $56,013
Support (2) $53,961
Support (3) $52,699




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021