Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 22, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has been trading sideways after having slipped through $54,500 levels on March 15, 2021. The crypto did manage to spike through $60,000 levels thereafter but failed to hold and reversed lower again. Possibility remains for yet another high above $61,781, before reversing lower towards $43,000 levels, going further. Having said that, if prices slip below $54,500 levels from here, it would confirm a meaningful top already in place.

The crypto is seen to be trading around $57,800 levels at this point in writing and it remains to be seen how price action unfolds in the next few trading sessions. We remain prepared for yet another test of $61780 levels before a dramatic reversal could take place. Immediate resistance stays intact around $61800 mark, while intermediate support comes in around $54,500 levels respectively.

The overall uptrend since March 2020 lows at $3,850 is seen to be intact for now and there could be minor corrections going forward. The first major support is seen towards $37,700 level, which is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the rally between $3,850 and $61,780 levels respectively. Also note that $24,000/25,000 zone remains of interest to bulls with trend line support and fibonacci 0.618 retracement passing through.


Trading plan:

Preparing to sell. Remain flat for now.

Aggressive traders may want to remain short against $63,000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Robert Kiyosaki calls for investing in bitcoin



While the number one cryptocurrency in the world continues to trade in a rather narrow (for itself) range, the whales of finance, investment, and the cryptocurrency sector continue to give advice. For example, the other day, the author of the world-famous bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad", Robert Kiyosaki, called on the middle and lower class of Americans to invest in gold, silver, or bitcoin. According to the financial expert, the new half-trillion "helicopter money" (money that will be distributed to Americans just like that, according to Joe Biden's "economic rescue plan") will provoke inflation and make the lower and middle class poorer.

"Millions of people are very happy as the government approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Who wouldn't be happy to receive money just like that? The problem is that this kind of money makes the poor and the middle class poorer. Buy more gold, silver, and bitcoin," Kiyosaki wrote on Facebook.

Earlier, Kiyosaki also predicted the growth of bitcoin above $50,000 per coin, explaining this by the influx of new institutional investors. So while the predictions of the author of several bestsellers work, the problem is, are institutional investors themselves ready to continue to invest in bitcoin?

According to the latest opinion polls, a certain part of Americans is ready to use the funds accumulated during the pandemic for investment. In particular, for the purchase of bitcoins, gold, stocks, and bonds. However, the market is not only about small traders and investors. In the previous year, bitcoin has risen in price precisely due to the influx of large institutions. In any case, we always have technical analysis that reacts most quickly to any changes in the market. So far, according to it, there is an upward trend and a trend. Therefore, you need to continue looking towards $70,000.

Now, if bitcoin consolidates below the level of $52,300, then it will be possible to begin to consider alternative scenarios, in particular, a fall to the support area of $43,000-$44,000. As we said in previous articles, no asset in the world can grow constantly, no matter what Kiyosaki and other crypto experts say. The cryptocurrency has long needed a correction, however, as we said above, so far there are no grounds for its beginning in technical terms.

Meanwhile, the mining of new bitcoins does not stop for a second. Last week, miners' income broke all records and amounted to $52.3 million per day. Of course, such an increase in income is explained not only by an increase in computing power and, accordingly, an increase in the number of mined blocks but also by an increase in the cost of bitcoin itself. Thus, while bitcoin is expensive and has not started a new global round of decline, miners are trying to have time to get as many bitcoins as possible. But will they strive to sell all the mined coins?




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for March 22,.2021 - Another downside wave in the play for potential test of $52.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is consolidation at the price of $57,750 but still potential for another downside wave.

Based on the 4H time-frame , my advise is to watch for potential selling opportunities with the downside targets at $52,075 and $48,835.

There is strong supply in the background, which is sign that supply is still present...


Key Levels:

Resistance: $60,000

Support level: $52,075 and $48,835.




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple Long Opportunity Confirmed!

Ripple edged higher today indicating further growth ahead. The price escaped from a symmetrical triangle signaling a new leg higher and strong momentum. As you already know from my analyses, XRP/USD moved in range in the short term maintaining a bullish outlook.

Passing and stabilizing above 0.50000 psychological level represented a first bullish signal. The price's failure to come back to test and retest the uptrend line signaled strong buyers and potential sharp growth.


XRP/USD VALID BREAKOUT!


XRP/USD has finally registered a valid breakout from the symmetrical triangle and through the 0.5 level confirming more gains. Now it is very important for the price to close above 0.5495 Saturday's high to really validate the buying opportunity.

Technically, the price registered a valid breakout above the Pivot Point (0.4965) signaling an increase at least until 0.5703 level. Closing above this level announces larger growth in the upcoming period.


RIPPLE TRADING TIPS!

Retesting the pivot point, 0.5, and the symmetrical triangle's resistance followed by the current rally, jump above 0.5495 level is seen as a bullish signal. So, closing above this level brings a buying opportunity with upside targets at 0.7000 and at 0.7574 levels.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin forecast for March 22, 2021 – BUY/SELL. Gains for 2 months +12.21%

How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

You should trade along with large market players. How do they work? Large market players use the daily time frame, since it takes time to accumulate and distribute large volumes. They work in the following sequence:

- accumulation for several days
- trend movement towards set profit targets for several days
- distribution - profit taking - for several days
- new accumulation for several days

These are cyclical events. Therefore, it is important for a trader to understand at what stage the market is at the moment and act accordingly. Let's consider each stage of the market separately. Today, we will take a closer look at the trend. After sufficient accumulation, major players begin to move the market towards their profit targets. What does a steady trend look like?



A strong upward trend has the following features:

- white candlesticks; the body of a candlestick is larger than its shadows; the price closes near local highs.
- the price strives to reach a new high every day.
- each new low is above the low of the previous day.
- the daily level of the highest traded volume (POC) consistently moves up.

During a downward trend, the movement is mirrored. For a trader, a trend is the best condition in the market. If you want to trade with large players, look for the start of a trend and join it. Hold your trades for as long as possible, as the trend can move for several days or even weeks. Take profit and exit the market when the trend ends. Remember that good trends occur once or twice a month, so take your time and carefully search for entry points to the market. If you want to open more positions, then trade several instruments. Place a large enough Stop Loss outside daily volatility levels, so that random market movements or false breakouts do not knock you out of the market. By doing so, you will trade along with major players, which means you will reap profits.

In the following articles, we will look at new market stages, as well as actions of major players. Now, let's analyze the current market.


Volume analysis of BTC from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

So, there is a classic accumulation in the market (an image at the beginning of the article). The price moves up and down. The market is flat. However, after any flat there is often a trend that will give traders earning opportunities. A flat provides a great possibility for short-term trading in both directions, which can also be quite profitable. Let's consider the levels of the highest traded volume based on Bitcoin futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Large institutional companies and hedge funds trade bitcoin futures on this exchange. Notably, trades on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are held on weekdays only.

18.03.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 58,560
19.03.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 58,225

On Friday, the POC moved down slightly. Today, the price is already below the two previous POC levels. This means that the upward trend is still unlikely. Bears are trying to push the price down. Profit taking occurs at rather high levels. In this light, there is an excellent opportunity for short-term intraday trading. Today, you can both buy and sell bitcoin on a rebound from the levels.


Trend analysis

A trend is your friend. Therefore, you should always trade with it. Even simple technical indicators can give you useful information on the current state of the market. The most important thing is to understand how to use it properly. In our analysis we turn to an exponential moving average (EMA):

Long-term trend – a blue EMA (1152 ) on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA (48) on D1;
Mid-term trend – a red EMA (288) on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA (48) on H4;
Short-term trend – a black EMA (48) on the H1 chart.



The price is above the three EMAs but close to EMA (48). This indicates a weak short-term trend. The three trends are in line. Thus, you can consider opening long positions.


Japanese candlestick analysis

Japanese candlestick analysis is a time-tested method of market analysis. You should study and use it in your trading. This way, your trading will become even more efficient. The analysis should be carried out on the daily time frame. Let's analyze yesterday's daily candlestick:



It is a hammer candlestick pattern with a long shadow and small body. The hammer is heading upward. An attempt to push the price down failed. Hammers pointing in different directions in the market have already been drawn for several days, which indicates that bulls and bears are equally strong. Therefore, you can consider opening short-term long and short positions.


Conclusion. Statistics

Volume analysis – BUY/SELL
Long-term trend – BUY
Medium-term trend – BUY
Short-term trend – BUY
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY/SELL

Conclusion: You can sell and buy BTC in a short term on March 22, since different types of analysis give different forecasts and the market is flat.

Always keep statistics on your trading, this will help you improve its effectiveness. Trades and analysis are carried out in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCHUSD. Trading account monitoring:



Gains for two months of 2021: +12.21%.


Statement:


Current deals:

18.03.21 Bitcoin BUY: 58066 SL: 53800; Risk per deal: 1% of a $10,000 deposit with 0.02 lot.

09.03.21 Ethereum BUY: 1831 SL: 1619; Risk per deal: 1% of a $10,000 deposit with 0.48 lot.

A 1% risk will protect you from excessive worries. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. We do not set a Take Profit and move a Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Why major cryptocurrencies are not showing growth: reasons and predictions

Cryptocurrencies will be able to add the first month of spring to their assets with great difficulty. Despite the end of the February correction, the market has not shown stable growth. Bitcoin and altcoin quotes remain approximately in the same price range, and right now there are no prerequisites for the beginning of a protracted growth of digital assets.

For the second week in a row, the indicators of cryptocurrencies cannot overcome the psychological boundaries, which they reached at the end of February. This is primarily due to the unstable economic situation in the world caused by the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The comments of the former CEO of the crypto exchange BTCC, who said that the cryptocurrency market could move to a protracted decline in prices after the current phase of development, also added to the negative. The former CEO is confident that the bullish pace of the market can raise bitcoin to $300,000, after which the "bubble" will burst, and the quotes of the crypto asset will go to a steep peak within several years.

Without taking into account the above, a positive information background continues to form around digital coins. For example, it became known that the Canadian corporation Thornton Place, as part of a 10-year investment program, purchased 0.4 bitcoin for a reserve fund. This news is a consequence of research by JPMorgan experts, who, in early March, advised large companies to purchase a certain number of bitcoins to hedge risks from price fluctuations. Also in the US, the regulator may soon make a crucial decision for the development of the cryptocurrency market. The SEC has accepted VanEck's application for the creation of the first US Bitcoin ETF and is expected to make a decision within 45 days.

There is also positive news for XRP coins. The SEC said that investors and crypto exchanges do not break the rules by trading the Ripple token. In addition, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has settled a dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and will pay a $6.5 million fine.

Despite the positive news, which in the future promises the market a lot of investment injections and an increase in demand, the main cryptocurrencies are losing ground. Over the past day, Bitcoin has lost 0.35%, to $57,000.



Ethereum sank 0.9% in price and began a new growth from $1,780.



The Ripple coin, despite falling in price by 0.5%, began to show good growth amid positive news from the SEC and progress in resolving the litigation. Now the token has reached the $0.530 mark and continues to grow.



Litecoin sank 2% and again reached its usual level of $190. Now the asset is again trying to hold on to the $190 -$205 line.



It can be assumed that in the next few days, prices in the cryptocurrency market will continue to fluctuate. This is evidenced by the two-week trend of ignoring positive news. The quotes of digital assets are likely influenced by the lack of interest from institutional investors, who are cautiously looking towards the market, due to the poor economic situation. Despite the lack of growth, cryptocurrencies retain the chances of rapid growth and have not fallen below certain indicators for more than a week. This suggests that the coins have strengthened in their current positions and this may allow them to maintain safe boundaries in the event of an inevitable fall in prices after historical records.

The main signals for the growth of digital assets will be the cleared-up situation with the introduction of lockdowns in European countries, as well as the SEC decision regarding the VanEck application for the creation of the first ETF bitcoin in the United States.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD breaks short-term resistance of $0.50.

XRP/USD made a sharp move higher on Saturday from $0.4675 to $0.5299 breaking the triangle pattern to the upside. On Sunday price moved even higher towards $0.55 but in the end prices pulled back towards the triangle boundary for a back test. It is important for bulls to hold above $0.50 in order to accumulate power for the next leg higher.



Blue lines - triangle pattern

XRP/USD is bouncing off the triangle boundary. Price seems to find support at the previous resistance area of $0.50. Holding above this level is key for the trend for the next few weeks. With the SEC lawsuit still unresolved and pending, the chart shows us before hand that we could have some good news for XRP/USD. The break out of the short-term range could be initial signs for a bigger move higher. Major resistance remains key at $0.60-$0.75 and as long as price is below this area, XRP/USD is vulnerable to a move lower.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 22, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Unlike rival GPU maker Nvidia, AMD won't try to stop miners from using their latest GPUs to mine cryptocurrency. The producer noted, however, that they were designed with players in mind.

Hardware giant AMD does not plan to impose any artificial restrictions on the use of the computing power of its new graphics cards. The company announced this fact during a brief on the Radeon RX 6700 XT.

"The short answer to that question is no. We will not be blocking any load, not just mining, "said Nish Neelalojanan, product manager at AMD.

Nvidia, AMD's main competitor, recently announced that it will put restrictions on the new GPU that will impact mining performance on the Ethereum network. The company, however, released a developer version of the driver for its RTX 3060 GPU, which allowed users to bypass the hash rate limits.

According to Neelalojanan, AMD will not try to interfere with cryptocurrency mining. There is, however, a catch. Neelalojanan explained that AMD optimizes its chips primarily for gamers. "It is the players that will benefit a lot from this and it will not be an ideal solution for the cryptocurrency mining job," he said.

An AMD representative explained that AMD's RDNA GPU architecture was designed from the ground up for gaming. He added that the mining industry "particularly enjoys" high bandwidth, and therefore - from an architectural point of view - there will still be some limitations.


Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been trading in a relatively narrow range located between the levels of $1,873 - $1,721 during all the weekend. Nevertheless, it looks like the lows are being bought back up because a lot candles had a long lower shadows, which is clearly visible on the daily time frame chart. Any violation of the level of $1,887 will encourage the bulls to test the recent high located at $1,941. Please keen an eye on the level of $1,721 in a case of increasing bearish pressure, because this is the key level for the next few days.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,051
WR2 - $1,965
WR1 - $1,890

Weekly Pivot - $1,807
WS1 - $1,707
WS2 - $1,636
WS3 - $1,545


Trading Recommendations:

The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 22, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The US stimulus package, and more specifically the launch of another round of bailouts as part of it, will probably make Americans spend more this spring. Will this cash inflow bring about a recovery similar to that of the 1920s? A glance at the past year may provide an answer to this question.

A recent study by The Harris Poll on behalf of Yahoo Finance found that approximately 15% of Americans who received the last two incentives invested some or all of their money. About half of this group chose to buy cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum.

Currently, the majority of Americans declare that compared to the pre-pandemic period, their "home" financial situation has not changed (52%). In reality, every fifth US citizen reports a real improvement in their household finances.

Nevertheless, more than a quarter (29%) of Americans still say their home finances have worsened as a result of the pandemic. This may be the reason why people - over the past year - have decided to allocate a stimulus package to investment.


Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading inside of the narrow range during the weekend, so the volatility had decreased. The bulls might still try to rally above the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $58,223, so any breakout above this line will be considered as bullish with a target at $60,000 and above. On the other hand, the immediate technical support is seen at the level of $55,359 and $54,012. The momentum remains neutral, so the market participants wait for the bullish breakout and the up trend to resume.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $68,853
WR2 - $64,7000
WR1 - $61,327

Weekly Pivot - $57,323
WS1 - $54,318
WS2 - $49,983
WS3 - $46,876


Trading Recommendations:

The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Finita la comedia: central banks to tighten reins on crypto market



While bitcoin continues its stellar rally, many central banks, as well as the governments, still deem the crypto market as a dangerous and volatile one. The thing is that it is not beneficial for any government in the world to have such a decentralized means of payment. To this end, there is no doubt that sooner or later the central banks will make attempts to take control of the crypto market. Currently, it is difficult to predict how they could achieve such an ambitious goal. Notably, many central banks have already expressed their intention to create state-owned digital currencies, trying to squeeze cryptocurrencies out of the market and making them less attractive to investors. However, experts wonder whether demand for these state-owned digital currencies will be high. The main feature of cryptocurrencies is that they are anonymous, not controlled by governments. The second main feature is that they are an excellent investment instrument. There is no need to say that the state-owned digital assets lack both qualities. They will be just a usual means of payment like fiat money. Thus, the central banks' plan to make the crypto market a regulated one is doomed to failure. The regulators can also simply ban cryptocurrencies. However, such a decision will not bring anything good as well. Bitcoin is mined from the code. It does not require a physical storage location. The owner of bitcoins can live in India where virtual money is prohibited while owning a crypto wallet on US servers. Therefore, an attempt to ban bitcoin can be compared to an attempt to block access to some websites, given that every browser has a built-in VPN. Governments may try to use software that has not yet been created to track all bitcoin transactions to identify their owners. However, such technology is still underway and unlikely to be developed in the near future. Nevertheless, even these obstacles will hardly stop the governments from finding a way to control the cryptocurrency market. Curiously enough, bitcoin could advance even more amid growing governmental pressure.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank are sure that bitcoin can no longer be ignored. It will continue to grow, attracting new large investors. According to the bank's experts, the number one cryptocurrency is still highly volatile despite exceeding the capitalization of one trillion dollars. In 2020, the total number of mined bitcoin amounted to 28 million coins, which was equivalent to 150% of the coins. For example, last year, Apple shares showed only a slightly larger turnover. Thus, analysts are confident that even a few large transactions on bitcoin may have a significant impact on its value. Deutsche Bank also calculated that about 70% of bitcoin transactions are investment ones and only 30% are payment transactions. At the same time, experts believe that the current price of bitcoin is overvalued. To justify such a high cost, bitcoin needs to become the most preferred means of international settlements. The bank also notes that the current value of the cryptocurrency is supported solely by traders' faith in it. Experts believe that central banks and governments will tighten their reins on the crypto market as its unpredictability and volatility pose a threat to the whole financial system.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021