Cryptocurrency Analysis

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How autumn can inspire crypto traders and give confidence to the crypto market, Bitcoin (September 3)

The end of August was not the best period for cryptocurrency. So what are we waiting for in the new season, will Bitcoin grow?

I welcome you, crypto enthusiasts and crypto-hamsters, it's been a week since our last review. So what has changed in the market? The remarkable $ 9800/10500 platform, to which many people paid attention, was broken in the downward direction by a massive red candle, of course, there was a foundation of information here. So, theories appeared that this platform and the subsequent descent were provoked by large players on the eve of the closing of futures on the CME exchange on August 30. The following theory, in principle, follows from the first, and it is associated with the celebration of Labor Day in the United States and Canada, September 2, where, according to this version, trading volumes could be reduced and operations began to close in advance. Although, the extreme theory does not follow from the first two. Here, the idea is a little different, and so, it is called "Summer 2018".Who worked on the stock market in the past year, remembers how great everything began increasing, and by August, the picture was radically changed, with the result a stunning decline up to $3156 BTC by the end of 2018. Thus, the theory stems from the fear of repetition, and when everyone can see that Bitcoin is going down, while the index of "Fear" storming new lows, somehow arbitrarily fixing is available.

Digest of the past days:
For several days in a row, the media actively looted the topic of the national cryptocurrency of the PRC, that it was supposedly already ready and the People's Bank of China would present it on November 11th. The crypto-yuan will be distributed by large banks of the country, as well as Alibaba and Union Pay. The news is actually shocking, although information about the upcoming token has been around for quite some time. Therefore, by the end of last week, a rebuttal appeared. The financial regulator called all the rumors "inaccurate and speculative" regarding an early launch. However, the fact that the work is ongoing and there is already a high degree of readiness of the cryptocurrency, confirms its representative Mu Chanchun. In any outcome, this news is sent to the crypto industry.

The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton, said that his agency is not going to amend the securities law for the blockchain industry, but it does not intend to impede its development.

The ECB has published a new report on the crypto industry. In particular, there is an analysis of cryptocurrencies, the so-called stablecoin. In the report, the ECB divided stablecoins into four main groups and concluded that stablecoins need a more advanced management system so that they can become more popular. The report can be found here.

In the United States, they are preparing to consider the proposal of the financial Integrity Network (FIN) consulting company regarding the regulation of crypto-currencies in accordance with the bank secrecy law.


So autumn has come, and what should we expect from it?

In the fall, we are waiting for stimulating factors in the form of launches of a number of crypto projects, which against their background can support the crypto industry and, as a fact, give optimism to traders. So, on September 23, the launch of the platform for institutional investors Bakkt will take place, where they can replenish their bitcoin deposits from September 6. Institutional investors have always been considered guides to market trends, so let's hope that they will bring us a new round in an upward trend. The next factor comes to us with the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, which plans to launch trading in futures contracts with 20x leverage in September, which will certainly increase trading volumes and can help provide an incentive for the growth of the cryptocurrency market. The last factor in this review is the long-awaited TON token from the well-known Pavel Durov. There is information that the launch of the main TON network is scheduled before October 31. This factor can stimulate the crypto industry and give a new round of fresh capital to the cryptocurrency market, which will directly affect the course of the leading cryptocurrency BTC.

What we have now is that the first BTC crypto-currency grows by more than 12% in five days, where the main move occurred just after the onset of autumn (September 1). There are a number of assumptions regarding the continuation of Bitcoin growth, and so, one of the most interesting theories is the news that the BTC growth coincided with the announcement of restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency in Argentina. According to the document, large exporters will need permission from the Central Bank of Argentina to purchase foreign currency and transfer it abroad. Individuals, in turn, will not be able to buy more than $ 10,000 per month. Such measures will be valid until December 31, 2019.


What are the assumptions for further development?

The first thing that catches the eye is that the quote has returned back to the framework of the recent platform 9800/10500, concentrating at the upper border. So, in the case of a clear breakdown ($ 10,500) while maintaining the inertial course, there are real chances for further growth in the direction of $ 11,000 - $ 12,330. Yet, it's too early to talk about this, since the freezing within the cluster has considerable chances. We are waiting for confirmation so that we don't run into a false puncture. In any case, the breakthrough price (September 1-3) encouraged crypto-traders and, possibly, cryptozyme will still be postponed for a longer period.

Key coordinates for the upward stroke: 12330; 13130; 13970.

Key coordinates for the downward stroke: 10000; 9400; 8500; 7500.

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we see that the market volume for a short period of time collapsed to a critical level of $ 245 billion, which reflects the indicators of the beginning of summer 2019, after which the volumes recovered, but still are in the same lateral fluctuation. Compared with the previous article, capitalization increased by $ 5.8 billion and currently amounts to $ 267.8 billion. If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings are 272 ---> 281 ---> 320 ---> 356 ---> $ 385 billion.


The index of emotions, which is the same fear and euphoria of the crypto market, has grown from 30p. up to 41p., which is already not bad. Let me remind you that in August, we will observe twice the catastrophic index indicator with minimum 5p.


Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all the main time periods signal an upward trend, which reflects the current course. It is worth taking into account such a moment that, in the event of freezing within the framework of accumulation 9800/10500, indicators will take their previous positions - a versatile signal.




Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
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