Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 02 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Coincheck, Japan's cryptocurrency market, has announced it is reducing the scope of leveraged trading options to comply with local regulations. In a blog post published today, the company said they were reducing the leverage available for margin trading from five to four times.

This move was a direct response to the best practices presented by the Japanese Virtual Currency Exchanges Association - or JVCEA - a dedicated self-regulatory body for the Japanese stock exchange industry.

As written in the blog, the changes should take effect from October 31. Coincheck calls on investors to cancel any planned margin calls and take some precautions.

Margin trading involves significant risk, and it has even been suggested that practice can transfer entire Bitcoin market rates. Nevertheless, this option is gaining popularity and new offers from players such as the Binance exchange are coming to the market.

Coincheck, which recovered after a gigantic $ 530 million hacker hack in January 2018, revealed last week that it is considering launching an additional IEO branch. Similar to ICO, IEO makes it easier to sell crowdsale tokens directly through the exchange without the need for an intermediary


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range between the levels of $164.81 - $172.82 for all the weekend. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading horizontally. Moreover, the price is still being closed inside of the short-term descending channel, so only an impulsive move out of the channel can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $214.26
WR2 - $203.46
WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24
WS1 - $152.37
WS2 - $142.84
WS3 - $121.31


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 02 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The growing number of retail investors is betting on Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic turmoil during the protracted trade war between the US and China.

Data from industry-specific financial portals reveal a correlated increase in both Bitcoin and Gold on its trading platforms after the announcement of an escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.

While gold has long been considered a safe haven in periods of macroeconomic or geopolitical instability, stock market data point to the growing perception of Bitcoin among investors as a form of "digital gold" and a means of thesaurization in an uncertain global climate, as Bitcoin has similar characteristics to gold: it will only the finite amount (21 million) of BTC is decentralized, its price is not influenced by inflation and has an additional advantage over gold due to lower storage costs.

There are several factors that still hinder Bitcoin's acceptance as a primary safeguard, noting that its reputation is still undermined by perceived price volatility, alleged market manipulation and the prevalence of hacking intrusions in the cryptocurrency sector.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading for all the weekend inside of a narrow range located between the levels of $9,415 - $9,704. The bulls are still testing the upper boundary of this range which is still a technical resistance for the price. In the case of a breakout higher, the market will move towards the level of $9,826, which is the nearest technical resistance. Please notice, that from the Elliott Wave theory point of view, the market is very close to terminate the wave Y of the corrective cycle in the wave 2, or this cycle had been completed already and the market is ready to resume the up trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,528
WR2 - $11,079
WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753
WS1 - $8,875
WS2 - $8,358
WS3 - $7,589


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 30 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Neil Wals, head of the United Nations Office on the Program on Drugs, Crime and International Cybercrime, warned that cryptocurrencies significantly hinder the fight against money laundering.

Wals expressed the view that criminals using cryptographic resources include global networks of child sexual abuse, which he believes are more widespread than most people are aware of.

He believes that cryptocurrencies are a veil that can facilitate crime. The news comes after treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said in July that government agencies would prevent Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from becoming "equivalent to Swiss bank accounts."

Also in July, Danny Scott, CEO of the Bitcoin Stock Exchange on the Isle of Man, CoinCorner, said that the conviction of the president of the now-defunct darknet market - Silk Road - shows that the use of Bitcoin by criminals is a thing of the past, suggesting that this tool is not used for illegal transactions.

In addition, the latest research by the New York analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis shows that only 8.1% of all cryptographic assets sent to cryptocurrency mixers are related to illegal activity, and only 2.7% come from darknet markets.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair spiked down after days of trading inside of a narrow range and broke below all the local technical supports at $177.07 and $172.82. So far the sell-off has stopped at the level of $164.81 and there is a clear bullish divergence present on the market between the AO oscillator and the price. The price is trading in a narrow consolidation range again with a new local low made at the level of $162.78. No follow-through was made, but the next important technical support is seen at the level of $145.45. Please notice the wave (c) might be completed soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Portuguese tax office explained that both cryptocurrency trading and crypto payments would be VAT-free in that country, according to a Portuguese business newspaper.

The agency reportedly provided explanations to a local cryptocurrency mining company by publishing an official judgment document. In the document, the authority states that the exchange of cryptocurrencies for fiat money is free of VAT, adding that cryptocurrency users do not have to pay any income tax.

In an official statement, the Portuguese tax authority cited the 2015 European Court of Justice ruling regarding the case of Sweden's largest cryptocurrency portal and its moderator David Hedqvist.

The court then ordered that Bitcoin is a means of payment, and therefore the exchange should be subject to VAT exemption. However, the Swedish tax agency then objected to the ruling, arguing that the court had not fully understood the case.

This confirmation follows the previous tax ruling of the Portuguese authority saying that cryptocurrencies are not taxed in that country. A document published by the agency in 2016 states that revenues from the sale of cryptocurrencies in Portugal are not subject to income tax.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair is close to terminate the wave (c) development as the bears have broken below the trendline support around the level of $9,990 after a failure to break through the upper trendline resistance around the level of $10,200. The bears were able to make a new local low at the level of $9,466 and since then the market did not bounce much. Currently, the price is trading around the level of $9,534, just above the low of the old wave W of the overall corrective cycle. Any violation of this level will lead to sell-off acceleration towards the level of $9,046.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. First downward target is met, potential for second target
29 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


Bitcoin has been trading downwards exactly what I expected. Our first downward target is reached at the price of $9727 and there is potential for the test of the second target at $9,110. The 4-hour chart bear flag in the background. was the trigger for sellers as I expected..I don't see any signs of the reversal yet and I would avoid the bullish entries.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall downward trend and I found increase in the downward momentum on the MACD oscillator,, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential test of our second target at $9,110. If you are still holding sell position from yesterday, it is good level to exit partial or at least secure on the breakeven. If you didn't take sell yesterday, you would need to wait some sort of upward correction on 4H time-frame to re-join. The level around $9,727 looks decent to do new selling.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 29th. Panic in the cryptocurrency market: bitcoin lost almost $1000 per day

Bitcoin – 4H.


Over the past two weeks, I have repeatedly referred to well-known experts and analysts of the cryptocurrency world, who called the increase in the value of a "cue ball" coin to $12,000 - $15,000 throughout a week/until the end of the month, it was practically decided. The reasons were also called various. Ranging from the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, which allegedly causes a demand for protective assets, to the "very essence of bitcoin and blockchain technology", which cannot fail to rise in price. Moreover, it is still unclear how Bitcoin, or other cryptocurrencies, can be used as a means of preserving value with growing global risks and the threat of recession for the global economy. Over the past 24 hours, traders could get a clear answer to this question, since BTC fell by almost $ 1,000 per day.

Thus, I still believe that the movement of the bitcoin exchange rate is virtually unrelated to various geopolitical risks, increasing threats of slowing the world economy. These factors can influence. Large investors, experts, and analysts continue to move bitcoin, predicting the astronomical cost of the "cue ball" for a year or two, as well as one-day investors, who on the waves of cryptocurrency growth increase demand, which causes even greater demand. However, the hamsters, as they call short-term investors as the main goals, "fast profit", you need to properly manage. Hamsters will not wait a year or two to make a profit so that bitcoin continues to rise in price, they need to be kept in the market and constantly attract new ones. First, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator, then the rebound from the correction level of 61.8% ($10,251). Now, the collapse and closure under the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9,558). Accordingly, bitcoin quotes will continue to fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% ($9,022).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9,558). Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,022, with a stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $9,558, and with a stop-loss level of $9,022, if a rebound from the correction level of 100.0% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Santiago Stock Exchange (STE), Central Securities Depository (DCV) and Global Trade Directory (GTD) announced the creation of a new Blockchain association.

The company BNamericas informs that STE, DCV and GTD have created a consortium for creating Blockchain financial applications, which is reportedly the first of its kind in Latin America.

The agreement provides for the creation of a Blockchain business network: infrastructure to connect public clients around the world via nodes that will provide access to various applications running on the Hyperledger platform.

"Since 2017, we have been cooperating with other securities depositories around the world in the application of Blockchain to the services of our industry, to which is added a project that we are implementing with the central bank of Chile to include this technology in the issue of its financial instruments "- says the Director-General of the Central Securities Depository, Fernando Yanez.

After signing the contract, the three institutions will create a technical committee whose task will be to design the system within six months, consulting the members of the alliance. After this phase, a team of programmers will be employed to build a Blockchain-based platform in about 18 months.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair spiked down after days of trading inside of a narrow range and broke below all the local technical supports at $177.07 and $172.82. So far the sell-off has stopped at the level of $164.81 and there is a clear bullish divergence present on the market between the AO oscillator and the price. The next important technical support is seen at the level of $145.45.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 29 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Hong Kong's pro-democratic, anti-government protest movement is stimulating a wider adoption of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

Financial portals report that political unrest in Hong Kong - which has just entered the 12th week - has prompted several local businesses and individuals to switch to non-sovereign and decentralized digital currencies. On August 26, Pricerite department store in Hong Kong announced that it would begin accepting Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum at its fourteen locations in Hong Kong. The store has indicated that it will be able to quickly convert crypto to Hong Kong dollars using the Bitcoin's Lightning Network scalability layer. In addition to traditional retailers, the cryptocurrency company Genesis Block operates 14 cryptocurrency ATMs throughout the city.

In July, Genesis Block - which it trades under the name "CoinHere" - distributed water to protesters who were paid for using international donations in Bitcoin Cash, as well as umbrellas - a symbolic reference to the 2014 umbrella revolution in this city.

The increase in interest in cryptocurrencies appears against the background of other forms of economic activism. Earlier this month, protesters began withdrawing as much money as possible from bank accounts or converting the local currency to US dollars.

This had a dual purpose, serving both as precautionary protection of their personal property and by sending a sharp warning to the Chinese authorities. What's more, it was reported in June that many of Hong Kong's tycoons - a city of 853 people with assets worth over $ 100 million - began to transfer their assets abroad.

If the protest movement fails to prevent the entry into force of the controversial Chinese extradition law, the Chinese continental authorities will have the right to demand that Hong Kong courts freeze and confiscate assets related to crimes committed on the continent.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has broken below the trendline support around the level of $9,990 after a failure to break through the upper trendline resistance around the level of $10,200. The bears were able to make a new local low at the level of $9,466 and since then the market did not bounce much. Currently, the price is trading around the level of $9,534, just above the low of the old wave W of the overall corrective cycle. Any violation of this level will lead to sell-off acceleration towards the level of $9,046.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 28th. A third of all bitcoins are concentrated at 1600 addresses

Bitcoin – 4H.


I have repeatedly written that Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, is mainly used for profit. Its main stated function – a means of anonymous payments – is used for illegal operations, but the share of such operations in the total is negligible. For example, according to research, the US dollar is much more often used for illegal operations. Thus, in the current conditions, the main attraction of the "cue ball" for users is the possibility of obtaining a "quick profit". However, as recent studies show, more than a third of all bitcoin coins are concentrated in the hands of only 1,600 holders. Another part of bitcoins is considered irretrievably lost since access to wallets with coins was lost by their owners or for other reasons. Everyone remembers the story of buying pizza for 10,000 BTC. Thus, a small number of investors can theoretically have a serious impact on the rate of "cue ball", since the market laws of supply and demand have not been canceled. Increasing supply – has fallen off the rate of BTC, the reduction will create shortages and increase prices. And it turns out that the proposal can be manipulated by a small group of investors. A whole army of "experts" and "cryptanalysts" to shout on all corners that bitcoin will soon grow to $50,000 to $250,000 in order to foster interest from one-day investors, forcing them to buy Bitcoin, which will increase the cost of cryptocurrency and increase in the value of already purchased bitcoins, concentrated and crypto-tycoons on hand. By the way, according to other data, about 3% of wallets own 95% of the total number of bitcoins. This 3% group of people can create a deficit, which will lead to an increase in the price in the future, although the very essence of bitcoin will not change, its value will not change, and the price increase will be due only to an artificial deficit.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9782, with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10642, and with a stop-loss level of $10251, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 28 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
According to New York analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis, only 8.1% of all funds sent to cryptocurrency mixers are stolen funds.

In its latest webinar, Chainalysis reported that most of the funds sent to cryptocurrency blending services or tumblers come from exchanges, indicating that such funds are mainly used for privacy purposes, not for illegal activities.

The webinar 'Cryptocurrency Typologies: What You Need to Know About Who is Who in Blockchains' covers 14 different types of risk in the cryptographic industry, including darknet markets, terrorist financing, sanctioned cryptocurrency addresses, stolen funds, frauds and more.

n the webinar presentation, Chainalysis described the cryptographic mixer as websites or software for obfuscating the source of funds, which does not require any Know Your Customer procedures, exists in both Clearnet and Darknet and is usually centrally controlled.

Chainalysis claims that as much as 40% of all crypto tumbler funds come from cryptocurrency exchanges, and only 2.7% are shipped from the darknet market.

A significant proportion of cryptographic mix funds represent those from other mixing services, which is supposed to add an additional layer of a blackout, explained Hanna Curtis, Data Manager at Chainalysis, senior product manager.

While stolen coins make up about 8% of the funds going through cryptographic mixers, these anonymization services are still the main destination for cryptocurrencies after their theft, Curtis said.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone in low liquidity and volatility conditions and might be even developing a Triangle pattern. The market is positioned between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019