Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Blockchain's remittance company, Circle, said the company has long maintained that major fiat currencies will eventually be tokenized.

In an online podcast, Allaire said that Circle has for years believed that sovereign currencies will eventually be digitized.

"When we started with Circle in 2013, I think we believed that there would be significant non-state digital currencies that would grow in use and be attractive to people for many different reasons, and Bitcoin is obviously the most noteworthy. But we also believed that the world's main reserve currencies, the world's major trading currencies, would become digital currencies" - he said.

Allaire also believes that the world is moving towards a system of cheap, instant cash transactions with traditional fiat currencies - no matter which countries introduce fiat digital currencies. In addition, he believes that this will be a radical change in the operation of payment systems, monetary system and economic interaction in general.

Allaire explained that he did not believe that digital currencies were simply tokenized using Blockchain and did the same as they do now. Instead, it predicts that global money tokens, supported by reserve currency baskets, will appear and become the preferred monetary model.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone that gets even tighter. Currently, the market is trading between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
A man from Los Angeles confessed to running a $ 25 million Bitcoin money laundering program and selling methamphetamine. American media reported that the 25-year-old, Kunal Kalra, could receive a life sentence.

Authorities say that in 2015-2017 Kalra exchanged BTC and dollars, ran a Bitcoin ATM and admitted to concluding transactions with drug dealers and other criminals.

Kalra also sold two pounds of methamphetamine to an undercover law enforcement agent. According to the report, he also faces an allegation of money laundering in Texas that was brought earlier this month.

The United States Department of the Treasury has recently added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Designated Citizens (SDNs) under the Kingpin Foreign Drug Addiction Act, also known as the Kingpin Act.

In July, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the authorities would act to prevent Bitcoin from becoming "the equivalent of a Swiss bank account." According to Mnuchin, the US government daily fights "villains in US dollars to protect the US financial system."


Technical Market Overview:
The high of the recent BTC/USD rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again. Currently, the market is testing the lower price levels and it is hovering around the middle of the trading range between the level of $9,704 - $10,599. The upper channel boundary has not been violated as well, so the bears are still in control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 27th. Bitcoin ignores the escalation of the trade war between the US and China

Bitcoin 4H.


Recent media reports suggest that there is no end to the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. The parties gladly introduced new packages of fees, with each country stating that its measures had been taken in response to similar moves by the enemy. This means that we may see the introduction of new duties or increase the old ones already introduced soon. I have repeatedly said that the trade war has a negative impact not only on the economies of China and America but also causes the global recession. However, in this article, I am more interested in the impact of the trade war on the bitcoin exchange rate. Many experts believe that bitcoin has recently become an asset from the "safe haven", along with gold or franc. I believe that this opinion is wrong and is specifically promoted by the media, news agencies or is frankly custom-made. Bitcoin cannot be used as a protective tool, as the cryptocurrency can lose 5% - 10% of the value within a day. And this is not a hypothetical assumption. The ups and downs of the "bits" are regular. Thus, it may be that some investors have "hundreds" of thousands of Bitcoin coins "under their pillows," but they are not there to escape from the global crisis, but to make a profit when bitcoin again soars up. And for it to fly up, it is necessary to stimulate other investors, mainly one-day investors, to give them confidence that BTC will go up in any case, so that "hamsters" actively buy cryptocurrency.

Interesting calculations are provided by the startup IntoTheBlock. According to calculations, most of the "bits" currently held by users were purchased in the price range between $800 and $3900 and more than 79% at a price below $10,000. That is, 79% of BTC network members are in the investment plus. However, to stay in the black, it is necessary that Bitcoin continues to rise in price, and this can be achieved only with the arrival of new investors and the retention of old ones. However, at the levels of $ 10,000, there are already significantly fewer bulls, and now there are few fundamental reasons for new cryptocurrency purchases. Therefore, I do not expect a new growth of bitcoin soon.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9782, with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10,642, and with a stop-loss level of $10,251 if the closing is performed above the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Broken bear flag in the downward trend, more downside yet to come
27 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:

Bitcoin is progressing well since my yesterdays down call and my analysis is still in the play. The 4-hour chart completed bear flag and I do expect more downside to come. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in world currency markets. In my opinion, most of the investors are investing in metals (Silver,Gold) and I don't see any big expansion in the Bitcoin yet.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found bear flag below the downward slopping trendline, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,727, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto-hamsters drive growth, is Bitcoin worth selling in this case?
27 August 2019

Greetings, crypto enthusiasts and crypto-hamsters, a week has passed since our last review, and the course of the first cryptocurrency, strictly speaking, remained in the same place. What is the reason for such an attractive platform? A return to the $ 10,000 level was facilitated by a layer of negative information that has been holding us back for more than a week. The large-scale crypto pyramid PlusToken began to move its capital after law enforcement agencies became interested in it. By the way, a considerable amount of funds is involved in the form of moving $ 2 billion, and the fact that they can start to merge them somewhere, leaving customers' deposits empty, certainly scares traders. The second injection factor came from the United States, where Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Libra should be regulated by the same rules as other electronic financial transactions.

I can't say that this background exerted tremendous pressure during the intervals of the past week, but the restraint of the leading cryptocurrency is clearly visible.


Digest of the past days:
Arcane Research conducted a study of the dominance of Bitcoin in the crypto industry. According to company analysts, CoinMarketCap statistics regarding total market capitalization (dominance) are not true, and the level of 69% is underestimated, since the actual share of bitcoin in the market can exceed 90%. The British court to some extent recognized Bitcoin as property. This conclusion came as a result of the trial of the theft of 100 BTC. In UK law, cryptocurrency is considered data, so the owner cannot demand its return in case of theft. However, the lawyers in this case were able to prove to the judge that the theft was not a transfer of ownership. Now, the court is waiting for the conclusion of the working group, which should be determined by the end of August whether it is legal to recognize Bitcoin as property.

Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England, said central banks should consider joining forces to create a virtual currency that could replace the dollar as a reserve currency. We hear such phrases from crypto enthusiasts quite often, but not from the heads of the Central Bank, and after that it's worth considering.

The American congressmen visited Switzerland, where they met with experts from the Federal Office for the Protection of Data and Information regarding cryptocurrency from Facebook (Libra). Upon returning, the chairman of the US financial services committee, Maxine Waters, said, "Swiss government officials helped understand Facebook's status, complexity and scope, but I'm still worried about letting the big tech company create an alternative global currency controlled by the private sectors.

The Federal court in the Southern District of Florida decided to recover a staggering amount of bitcoins from the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto. The Kleiman V. Wright case ended in defeat. The court decided to recover more than half a million bitcoins from Australian Craig Wright and his intellectual property rights that he owned until 2014, the relatives of the deceased Dave Kleiman, who is associated with the creation of the first cryptocurrency. According to a conservative estimate, this is around $ 5.5 billion, of which Kleiman's relatives must pay a tax of 40% of the amount awarded. Now, Craig has the opportunity to appeal, which, of course, he will do, and the process will drag on for a long time, but just imagine if the court, nevertheless, takes the side of Kleiman and they decide to sell part of these bitcoins to pay taxes.

To summarize the information background, what we see is a lot of rich information that is individual and reacts differently to the crypto industry. In general terms, the pressure remains on the market after all, which reflects the market chart, but you should pay tribute to the stability of the leading crypto-currency.


What we have now is the amplitude fluctuation around 7.5% BTC, where the quote is concentrated within the psychological level of $ 10,000.

What are the assumptions for further development?

The bulk of traders is still not ready for growth, maybe the fear factor of last year (2018) plays, when at the same time period, during the end of summer, the round of Bitcoin draining began. At the moment, the limits of 9800/10500 (11000) are retained in the market, whether to work within the range, yes, it is possible, but the risk is high. The most acceptable tactic is still waiting for the breakdown of these boundaries. Key coordinates for the upward course: 12330; 13130; 13970.

Key coordinates for the downward course: 10000; 9100; 7500.

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see that the market volume continues to sluggish fluctuation in the side channel 256-282 ($ billion). Compared with the previous article, capitalization fell by another $ 12.7 billion and currently amounts to $ 263.6 billion. If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings remain the same: $ 355.1 billion and $ 385.2 billion.


The index of emotions, aka fear and euphoria of the crypto market, fell from 39p. up to 30p., which reflects the indecision of traders and the fear of decline. That week, the index fell to an extremely low level of 5, which once again confirms the fear of traders in the form of a fear of a repeat of last year.


Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all major time periods signal a possible decrease. It is worth taking into account that such a moment now, the quote moves in the side channel, does not fall, and thus, the indicators on the minute and intraday periods can be variable. Now, let's consider this in the analysis:




Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 28 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
According to New York analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis, only 8.1% of all funds sent to cryptocurrency mixers are stolen funds.

In its latest webinar, Chainalysis reported that most of the funds sent to cryptocurrency blending services or tumblers come from exchanges, indicating that such funds are mainly used for privacy purposes, not for illegal activities.

The webinar 'Cryptocurrency Typologies: What You Need to Know About Who is Who in Blockchains' covers 14 different types of risk in the cryptographic industry, including darknet markets, terrorist financing, sanctioned cryptocurrency addresses, stolen funds, frauds and more.

n the webinar presentation, Chainalysis described the cryptographic mixer as websites or software for obfuscating the source of funds, which does not require any Know Your Customer procedures, exists in both Clearnet and Darknet and is usually centrally controlled.

Chainalysis claims that as much as 40% of all crypto tumbler funds come from cryptocurrency exchanges, and only 2.7% are shipped from the darknet market.

A significant proportion of cryptographic mix funds represent those from other mixing services, which is supposed to add an additional layer of a blackout, explained Hanna Curtis, Data Manager at Chainalysis, senior product manager.

While stolen coins make up about 8% of the funds going through cryptographic mixers, these anonymization services are still the main destination for cryptocurrencies after their theft, Curtis said.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone in low liquidity and volatility conditions and might be even developing a Triangle pattern. The market is positioned between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin prices may face new volatility after Craig Wright was ordered to pay 500,000 Bitcoins to brother Dave Kleiman, his deceased business partner.

A payout - worth over $ 5 billion at the time of writing - could attract a 40% tax rate that Kleiman's assets would have to pay. There are concerns that 200,000 coins may be dropped onto the market to settle these $ 2 billion, potentially causing a collapse.

In an interview with fintech online magazine, Wright said he would comply with a court order that alleges he stole hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins by Dave Kleiman.

The ruling ends the case, which has been going on for years and has involved an increasing number of third parties far from Wright and his entourage.

Faced with numerous reports of fraud on social media, Wright even began suing those who disagreed with his alleged proof that he created Bitcoin. The trials did not lead to anything, while this week those who publicly supported Wright's original statements withdrew their support.


Technical Market Overview:
The high of the recent BTC/USD rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again. The market is still hovering around the level of $10,000 which seems to be pivotal for the further price movements. The upper channel boundary has not been violated as well, so the bears are still in control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 28th. A third of all bitcoins are concentrated at 1600 addresses

Bitcoin – 4H.


I have repeatedly written that Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, is mainly used for profit. Its main stated function – a means of anonymous payments – is used for illegal operations, but the share of such operations in the total is negligible. For example, according to research, the US dollar is much more often used for illegal operations. Thus, in the current conditions, the main attraction of the "cue ball" for users is the possibility of obtaining a "quick profit". However, as recent studies show, more than a third of all bitcoin coins are concentrated in the hands of only 1,600 holders. Another part of bitcoins is considered irretrievably lost since access to wallets with coins was lost by their owners or for other reasons. Everyone remembers the story of buying pizza for 10,000 BTC. Thus, a small number of investors can theoretically have a serious impact on the rate of "cue ball", since the market laws of supply and demand have not been canceled. Increasing supply – has fallen off the rate of BTC, the reduction will create shortages and increase prices. And it turns out that the proposal can be manipulated by a small group of investors. A whole army of "experts" and "cryptanalysts" to shout on all corners that bitcoin will soon grow to $50,000 to $250,000 in order to foster interest from one-day investors, forcing them to buy Bitcoin, which will increase the cost of cryptocurrency and increase in the value of already purchased bitcoins, concentrated and crypto-tycoons on hand. By the way, according to other data, about 3% of wallets own 95% of the total number of bitcoins. This 3% group of people can create a deficit, which will lead to an increase in the price in the future, although the very essence of bitcoin will not change, its value will not change, and the price increase will be due only to an artificial deficit.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9782, with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10642, and with a stop-loss level of $10251, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Santiago Stock Exchange (STE), Central Securities Depository (DCV) and Global Trade Directory (GTD) announced the creation of a new Blockchain association.

The company BNamericas informs that STE, DCV and GTD have created a consortium for creating Blockchain financial applications, which is reportedly the first of its kind in Latin America.

The agreement provides for the creation of a Blockchain business network: infrastructure to connect public clients around the world via nodes that will provide access to various applications running on the Hyperledger platform.

"Since 2017, we have been cooperating with other securities depositories around the world in the application of Blockchain to the services of our industry, to which is added a project that we are implementing with the central bank of Chile to include this technology in the issue of its financial instruments "- says the Director-General of the Central Securities Depository, Fernando Yanez.

After signing the contract, the three institutions will create a technical committee whose task will be to design the system within six months, consulting the members of the alliance. After this phase, a team of programmers will be employed to build a Blockchain-based platform in about 18 months.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair spiked down after days of trading inside of a narrow range and broke below all the local technical supports at $177.07 and $172.82. So far the sell-off has stopped at the level of $164.81 and there is a clear bullish divergence present on the market between the AO oscillator and the price. The next important technical support is seen at the level of $145.45.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. First downward target is met, potential for second target
29 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


Bitcoin has been trading downwards exactly what I expected. Our first downward target is reached at the price of $9727 and there is potential for the test of the second target at $9,110. The 4-hour chart bear flag in the background. was the trigger for sellers as I expected..I don't see any signs of the reversal yet and I would avoid the bullish entries.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall downward trend and I found increase in the downward momentum on the MACD oscillator,, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential test of our second target at $9,110. If you are still holding sell position from yesterday, it is good level to exit partial or at least secure on the breakeven. If you didn't take sell yesterday, you would need to wait some sort of upward correction on 4H time-frame to re-join. The level around $9,727 looks decent to do new selling.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019