Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin fell today, and what was the catalyst for the daily decline in the crypto market?



There was a decrease in ethereum by 5%, dogecoin by 10%, the price of bitcoin fell by 2% - and all this happened in 24 hours. The main catalyst for this was a speech by the president of the Federal Reserve System of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari. He called the entire crypto market a complete fraud, scam and money laundering.

He made this statement at the annual summit of the Pacific Northwest Economic Region in Montana. He also called all cryptocurrencies garbage digital trinkets and Ponzi schemes. He advised many investors to either not come to the market, or get rid of the crypto garbage that is already on the wallets of investors.

According to him, various shadow industries and illegal activities, prostitution, drugs and terrorism are financed with the help of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Also, over the past month, the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as the Ministry of Finance, in their reports announced a fabulous amount of fines, amounts that exceed more than $100 million, which were issued to exchanges that go into denial and do not comply with the rules and requirements of the federal anti-money laundering markets. Several US states have already introduced tougher repressive measures with regard to cryptocurrencies.

The crypto market met this news with caution and fear, so there was a small daily collapse of cryptocurrencies. However, most investors are not serious about Kashkari's comments and consider it the nonsense of a fiat-oriented bureaucrat who sees everything through his own prism of vision.

He knows that there are only fiat funds, and no other financial instruments exist for him anymore. However, it is worth noting that the surge of coercive and repressive measures both at the level of various states and at the federal level is an indicator that the government is really very serious about abuses in the cryptocurrency segment and is beginning to act very harshly and decisively to curb them.

Also, do not forget about the words of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who also spoke unflatteringly about cryptocurrencies in the manner of Kashkari and stated that the crypto industry should be strictly regulated.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin balances on a key border, investors are changing their minds about it

Bitcoin is declining, but from a technical point of view, this decline is not yet a major concern. The price dropped to the support of the local range 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 between the two red dotted lines. Until the 44,807.24 level is broken, there is a chance of recovery, at least in the same sideways trend.

Today's daily candle on the BTC/USD chart is forming a false breakdown confirming the 44,807.24 level. This is a preliminary conclusion, as the day is not yet closed.

An alternative scenario is the breakdown of this border. Then the main cryptocurrency will go for a deeper correction to the level of 41,980.24. But this does not change the bullish scenario for bitcoin.

Although, of course, the lack of enthusiasm on the part of market participants looks alarming. Institutions are interested in bitcoin, but, judging by the conflicting data, it is somehow sluggish. But for sure, this is still not enough for strong growth.

Nonetheless, billionaire investor and Shark Tank veteran Kevin O'Leary believes that investors have changed their attitude towards the main cryptocurrency: they are beginning to treat bitcoin as a digital property, and not as a currency.

In an interview on the Best Business Show with bitcoin bull Anthony Pompliano, O'Leary argued that large investors and institutions are beginning to view bitcoin more as a luxury property in Manhattan, rather than a currency to trade.

The investor notes that bitcoin can go anywhere. But now the companies that buy it do not regard this asset as money. They might as well have bought a Class A tower in Manhattan.

In this way, large players buy a share in bitcoin that they are allowed to own. They will not trade it, they own it as an asset. A certain percentage of the coins will still be sold. But for large organizations entering the market, this asset class is now more likely to be perceived as property.

Earlier in June, O'Leary stated that he believed bitcoin would not see another surge in institutional adoption until it resolved its environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) issues.

So, perhaps, the current low volatility is connected with this? Even so, it's not bad at all. At least for private speculative traders who trade what they see, not what they think. And the technical picture is now quite clear, so it is quite possible to move in small dashes.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Short-term technical analysis on Bitcoin for August 18, 2021.

Bitcoin is trading just above $45,000 price level. Price has turned lower from the recent high of $48,042 and is now challenging the upward sloping trend line support. Breaking below this support trend line will open the way for a move towards $42,000 at least as we explained in previous posts. Price is vulnerable to such a pull back after the warning from the RSI that we got.



Black lines- bearish divergence

Red line- support trend line

Blue line - horizontal support

Bitcoin justifies a pull back towards the blue horizontal support level specially if price breaks below the red trend line support. The RSI bearish divergence has warned traders that a turn around was imminent. Price has rolled over from $48,000 to $45,000 and there is potential for more downside. We can not tell yet if the $48,000 price level is an important reversal top, but for now we consider the $29,000 level as a major low and that a new bull wave has started and that we are its early stages. So far we consider the current decline as part of this upward movement that started at $29,000. We consider as the most probable scenario to see price forming higher lows and higher highs over the coming weeks.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for August 18,.2021 - Rejection of the key resistance at $48.000 in the background

Technical analysis:


BTC/USD has been trading downwards at the price of $45,250. I see potential for further downside continuation.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the intraday rallies with the downside targets at the price of $45,800 and $38,000.

Stochastic is showing bear divergence and fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the downside movement in the next period.

Key resistance is set at the price of $48,000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Latest round of Bitcoin growth led to 86% profitable coins in circulation



Bitcoin stalled near the important level of $47,500 and was unable to move further. In principle, there is already an upward trend in cryptocurrency that has been going on for almost a month. Thus, a $2,500 rollback downward is just a small correction, and not a signal of the end of the trend. Moreover, earlier the price was no longer able to overcome the Ichimoku cloud once, and at the moment, it is again inside this cloud and cannot leave it through the lower border yet again. Therefore, despite the absence of a positive fundamental background for Bitcoin, as well as our expectations of a new fall to the level of $29,700, it should be admitted that the upward trend remains (in the context of the 4-hour timeframe). Therefore, it is not recommended to sell cryptocurrency until the price consolidates below the trend line.

Meanwhile, Grassnode has calculated that due to the recent growth of bitcoin by $18,000, the absolute majority of investors are in profit. In just one month, about 3.6 million coins became profitable out of the total amount currently in circulation, equal to 18.7 million. And in total, out of 18.7 million coins, 16.1 million are now profitable for their investors, that is, about 86%. Grassnode analysts believe that a new upward trend is now forming, but many cryptocurrency experts remain skeptical about forecasts like $100,000 per coin in 2021. Recently, there has been an outflow of investment from bitcoin funds, and the current price levels for bitcoin may seem very attractive to many owners for sale. As we said earlier, the main factor in the growth of the value of the bitcoin is the belief or lack thereof in its growth by market participants. Taking into account that the long-term "bullish" trend is over, now the corrective scenario of the development of events is still more relevant. Moreover, in the last four weeks, there has simply not been such a positive fundamental background for Bitcoin to rise by $18,000. We consider this to be a coincidence and expect the market to start taking profits on long positions.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has not yet managed to overcome the $47,500 level. However, the upward trend line still supports the upward movement. Thus, until the price consolidates below this line, we do not recommend selling Bitcoin. If this happens, the first target for the decline will be the level of $43,852. From our point of view, there are still high chances for a new drop in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency up to the level of $29,700.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin is at risk of falling dramatically

Bitcoin once again failed to break through the resistance of $47,800, which led to the formation of a downward correction for the trading instrument. However, while the fundamental background is quite calm, and none of the central banks and governments are going to act aggressively against the ban on digital currencies, we can expect a gradual recovery of the bitcoin exchange rate, since consolidation above the 200-day moving average is a fairly powerful bullish signal. However, it is very dangerous to trade so close to it, so buyers of bitcoin need to continue the bullish trend as soon as possible, otherwise, it will not be very good. But we will talk about the technical picture below.



I would like to note that more and more world-famous companies are interested in specialists in the field of cryptocurrencies. Recently, Walmart Inc. announced that it is looking for a cryptocurrency specialist to develop a blockchain strategy and thereby joined the growing number of large corporations studying the viability of digital currencies. According to the vacancy announcement, this position will be responsible for "developing a digital currency strategy and a roadmap for a new product," as well as determining a strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies. Walmart does not talk about specific requirements for the applicant, but the vacancy also mentions the possible expansion of payment options for its customers on the Internet, which is very good news for the cryptocurrency industry. Let me remind you that a few weeks ago, the company Amazon.com Inc. has published an almost similar announcement, which indicates that the largest retailers in the United States may soon allow customers to use cryptocurrency to pay for their purchases. Back in the spring of this year, PayPal Holdings Inc. developed the Venmo application, through which users of the service can buy, sell and store digital currencies.

As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it seems that the test of the $47,800 level does not yet attract new big players who are waiting for an answer to the question: will bitcoin be able to consolidate normally above the 200-day moving average or not. At the moment, it is just around the $45,200 level, to which BTC has descended after unsuccessful tests of $47,800. A sharp drop below this level will provoke the demolition of a number of stop orders of the bulls, so now we need to pay attention to what is happening. A breakdown of the support of $43,100 will collapse the trading instrument to the lows of $38,100 and $33,800, which will be a complete collapse for buyers who expect an instant return and consolidation above the 200-day moving average, which big players use to determine the medium-term direction of the market. If we see a breakout of the resistance of 47,800, then we can expect more active purchases in the area of the highs of $52,000 and $58,000.



I would also like to say a few words about the little-known digital token Cardano, which yesterday became the third largest digital currency in the world. The boom associated with decentralized finance allows Cardano to gain more and more popularity. Most recently, the ADA cryptocurrency has jumped by about 50%, and optimism about it is only growing. New technological improvements will allow the use of Cardano smart contracts to offer services in the field of DeFi, which is currently dominated by Ethereum. Considering how DeFi broke into the market this year, we can predict a good potential for the development of this technology in the future, which will lead to an increase in the price of the token regardless of the direction of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market in general. The ADA token now has a market value of more than $69 billion – more than all of its competitors, except Bitcoin and Ether.

However, there are also skeptics about the development of this direction. Galaxy Digital LP CEO Mike Novogratz recently wrote that he spoke with twenty of the smartest people he knows in this field, and none of them saw Cardano in serious demand among developers. It is quite likely that this is done in order to test the stability of the market after such a sharp jump of 100% over the past six months. If we do not see any active and sharp decline in the near future, and the negative attitude towards ADA is ignored further, this will become a strong bullish signal. Cardano has almost returned to its May all-time highs, when the cryptocurrency market was at its historical peak. The first support levels are seen in the area of 1.81 and 1.64. A break of 2.15 will lead to a larger upward movement with an exit to the highs of 2.32 and 2.46.







Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin at $50,000 by the beginning of September: all the pros and cons

Bitcoin set a new local high at $48,200 but subsequently began to decline. As of 10:00 UTC, the asset is quoted at $45,200 and is still experiencing increased selling pressure. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency began to show signs of weakening, which could provoke a breakdown of important support levels. At the same time, bitcoin's continued attempts to consolidate above the two-month resistance zone remain unsuccessful. The cryptocurrency continues to be in demand in the market, but several factors can prevent bitcoin from consolidating above $50,000 by the beginning of September.

The main problem with bitcoin at the current stage is its excessively fast and sharp growth. At first, the main consequence of this was the lag of the on-chain activity of the coin from its real value. However, the main problem of such rapid growth is something else. The 30-day on-chain indicator MVRV, which displays the market value to the realized one, will help us to understand the problem of the upward trend of July 20. The analysis of this indicator shows that since the end of July, the line has been running above 10%. This means that most investors remained in solid profits after the bullish rally of bitcoin to $45,000. Given this, we can expect a massive profit-taking, which will put additional pressure on the quotes of BTC/USDT. In addition, historically, the context indicates that after such a delay of the MVRV indicator, a 20% drop in the bitcoin price followed.



In addition, several important factors point to the likelihood of massive profit-taking. First of all, it is worth noting the lack of tangible demand in the bitcoin futures market. Investors are showing much more interest in altcoins, trying to seize the moment to maximize profits through speculation. In addition, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares continue to trade at a discount of about 13% to the disputed price, which indicates a lack of significant interest in the first cryptocurrency in the medium term.

At the same time, it is worth noting the emergence of an upward trend in the social activity of bitcoin, as well as the number of active addresses in the BTC network. Since the beginning of August, overall activity on the cryptocurrency network has increased by 36%, which may indicate bullish market plans for the second half of August. However, there are clear signs of weakening on the daily chart of bitcoin. This is most evident in the stochastic, which has gone into a direct peak and is approaching the zero level. The RSI has returned to 60, while the MACD is showing preconditions for a bullish signal and continued consolidation near $45,000-$46,000




Taking into account the market's positive but restrained reaction on the current stage of bitcoin, we can expect a sideways or local correction due to profit-taking. This is also evidenced by the signals to weaken on the daily chart. At the same time, the news background continues to grow positive, and the institutionalization of the asset and the growth of the attention of the retail audience can launch a bullish rally. Given this, we can assume that bitcoin will be able to reach the $50,000 mark, but it is unlikely that the asset will be able to consolidate above it by the beginning of September.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Binance in talks with Richard Teng for the post of Singapore CEO



Binance is reportedly in talks with former SGX chief Richard Teng to take charge of its business in Singapore.

Teng recently stepped down as head of Abu Dhabi Global Market, and according to his LinkedIn profile, has worked for 13 years in the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

But both Teng and Binance declined to comment on the issue.

Founded in 2017, Binance has quickly gained market share partly due to more aggressive actions and fewer rules than competitors such as Coinbase. Now, it is the world's largest cryptocurrency and derivatives exchange. However, in recent months, Binance has been the focus of regulatory scrutiny in countries such as the US, UK, Thailand and Japan.

At a recent press conference, Binance Founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao said the company will open multiple headquarters around the world, so it is looking for regional CEOs - and possibly a successor - with a track record of regulatory compliance.

Binance Asia Services, the Singapore arm of the company, is running for a grace period while MAS reviews its application for a license to provide digital payment token services. Last month, the regulator said it would contact the local Binance unit if necessary.

But Chia Hock Lai, co-chair of Blockchain Association Singapore, said Teng's potential appointment alone will not be enough to appease regulators in financial centers such as Singapore.

"There are other factors to consider, such as, but not limited to, having a strong track record of compliance in the digital token business and the ability to comply with travel regulations," Chia said. "Firms also need to have strong technology risk management systems", he added.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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"Bitpanda" an Austrian cryptocurrency broker



On Tuesday, Austrian cryptocurrency broker Bitpanda said it raised $ 263 million at a $ 4.1 billion valuation due to a round of financing for a venture capital company founded by billionaire Peter Thiel.

The broker's assessment has tripled compared to March. At that time, the broker raised only $ 170 million at a valuation of 1.2 billion. British hedge fund manager Alan Howard, RADIO Ventures, LeadBlock Partners, and Jump Capital also invested in the current round.

Since the time when the volatility of cryptocurrencies increased, they began to be mastered by larger companies. This surge raised the valuation of another cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to $ 112 billion during their debut in April.

Eric Demuth, CEO of Bitpanda, said that there are not many good companies in which investors are willing to invest their money.

Bitpanda currently has 3 million users and is represented in eight European countries. This year, it plans to actively expand in other countries. Its platform offers users a flexible investment option – these are fractional shares, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. Investments can start from $1.

According to Demuth, the company is not yet planning to issue its shares on the stock exchange. But one day, it will prefer the direct listing path like RobinHood and Coinbase.





Irina Yanina
Analytical Expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 18, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Windows operating system and Office have always performed the best on any pirated software platform. So it's no surprise that Microsoft, developer of both products, is working hard to introduce anti-piracy measures.

In an article published by Microsoft with researchers at Alibaba and Carnegie Mellon University, the software giant investigated a blockchain-based system to bolster anti-piracy campaigns.

As the title of the study suggests, Argus: A Fully Transparent Incentive System for Anti-Piracy Campaigns, Microsoft's new system is based on the transparency aspect of blockchain technology. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Argus aims to provide a trustless mechanism while protecting data collected from an anonymous group of piracy reporters.

"We see this as a problem with a distributed system. The implementation process overcomes a number of inevitable obstacles to ensure security despite full transparency," reads the article.

Argus makes it possible to trace pirated content to the source using an appropriate algorithm, which is detailed in the article. Also referred to as "leak proof", each report of leaked content includes an information hiding process. This way, no one other than the whistleblower can submit the same watermarked copy without actually owning it.

Describing in detail the issue of fees for using the Ethereum network, the article explains that the team optimized several cryptographic operations "so that the cost of reporting piracy is reduced to an equivalent cost of sending ...".


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair is out of the ascending channel after bears had managed to push the price to the technical support seen at the level of $2,977 (local low made at $2,948 at the time of writing the article). There is a Pin Bar candlestick formation at the end of the move down to the level of $2,977, so the bulls are trying to bounce towards the nearest technical resistance seen at $3,122. Any failure to bounce above this level would likely extend the pull-back to the level of $2,914 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,888
WR2 - $3,615
WR1 - $3,448

Weekly Pivot - $3,162
WS1 - $3,024
WS2 - $2,746
WS3 - $2,578


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,000. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021