Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Changpeng Zhao, CEO Binance, believes a sufficiently well-designed central bank digital currency could become a threat to Bitcoin.

In a video interview with Jeff Roberts of Fortune, he was asked how the People's Bank of China's digital yuan initiative would impact the cryptocurrency industry. Zhao replied that any blockchain or digital currency would be good for the entire industry as it legitimizes digital assets and widens awareness. He added that although there is now a race between the largest countries to launch such a currency, most CBDCs will initially be more restrictive, but will evolve over time.

When asked directly about the threat to Bitcoin, CZ replied that very few CBDCs would have the same freedom as Bitcoin and be highly centralized and controlled. However, in the long run, he warned:

If the government were to push for another cryptocurrency that is even more open, more free, has fewer restrictions than Bitcoin, and is faster and cheaper to use, it would put Bitcoin at risk. But it's good for the industry, it's just better than Bitcoin, and it could replace it".

Asked if Binance intends to release a yuan-anchored stablecoin in addition to existing stablecoins, CZ said nothing of the sort would come out any time soon. There are too many restrictions on capital flight from China, he added.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $13,159 and a Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the end of the rally. The local correction that followed the high has hit the level of $12,648 and the market has started to consolidate. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions on the H4 time frame are clearly overbought. This situation might indicate a possible temporary pull back below the level of $12,648 before another wave up will develop. The old supply zone seen between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785 will now act as a demand zone for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,229
WR2 - $11,973
WR1 - $11,678

Weekly Pivot - 11,375
WS1 - $11,077
WS2 - $10,755
WS3 - $10,461


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
A Russian official argued that the country should have started researching the central bank's digital currency four years ago to gain a leadership position in this field. However, according to Dmitry Peskov, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Digital and Technological Development, the advantage of priority also carries a number of threats to financial stability.

According to the media, Peskov said a quick second strategy in developing CBDC could be more efficient than becoming the world's first issuer, stating:

"The financial risk is so great that I think a quick second strategy is much more effective than trying to be the first. Let's see what a leader can do and what obstacles they will encounter."

Peskov stated that the Russian CBDC - the digital ruble - could become a reality in three to seven years if development starts now.

Anatoly Aksakov, a member of the Russian Duma and representative of key cryptographic projects related to Russian legislation, argued that the digital currency would enter a pilot phase in the first half of 2021. Aksakov is convinced that the upcoming digital ruble "is the future", while decentralized crypto tokens like Bitcoin have no future.

Financial experts from other countries are also cautious about CBDC. On October 19, Jerome Powell of the US Federal Reserve said it was better to do it right than to be first. New Zealand's central bank has made a similar statement, saying there is "much work to do" in the CBDC area before releasing the national digital currency.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair had made a new yearly high at the level of $13,300 and keeps trading around this level. The local lows are shallow, so the bulls are still in control of this market. If the level of $13,300 is clearly violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $13,698. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $12,625 and as long as is not broken the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $15,886
WR2 - $14,555
WR1 - $13,946

Weekly Pivot - $12,537
WS1 - $11,955
WS2 - $10,713
WS3 - $10,093


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $14,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
The decentralized finance (DeFi) boom has caused the Ethereum network (ETH) to process more than twice the daily volume of bitcoin transactions per day.

According to the cryptocurrency market data aggregator Messari, the 30-day moving average for Ethereum's transaction volume is currently $ 7 billion. Bitcoin processes less than $ 3 billion. Messari predicts that if the current trend continues, Ethereum has a real chance of becoming the first public blockchain to account for $ 1 trillion in transfers in a calendar year. The previous, "best" calendar year of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin was 2018. At that time, the ETH network processed a volume of half a billion dollars. It was then 59% of the 849 million BTC volume.

Bitcoin is heading towards the second largest year in transaction volume after 2018. It is expected to process $ 800 million by the end of 2020.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair keeps trading under the local trend line around the level of $407. There were three Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns around the last swing high made every time the bulls tried to rally. This market behaviour indicates the developing bearish pressure, but so far the results from it are very poor. Only if the market break below the level of $389.90 the bulls will have a problem to control the price. The local technical support is seen at the level of $400, $394.85 and $389.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $490.39
WR2 - $455.51
WR1 - $435.03

Weekly Pivot - $398.88
WS1 - $379.21
WS2 - $342.87
WS3 - $323.39


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 26,.2020 - Upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern and potential for the rally towards $13.800

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern to the upside, which is good indication for the further upside continuation.

My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips with the target at $13,830, which is also the projected target of the symmetrical triangle pattern.


Key Levels:

Resistances: $13,830

Support level: $12,700



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Quantstamp, a smart contract audit company, said Ethereum 2.0 is almost ready to go live. The announcement came after Quantstamp completed an audit of Teku, an Eth 2.0 client developed by ConsenSys.

"Ethereum 2.0 is well on its way to delivering Phase 0 in the very near future," said Quantstamp CEO Richard Ma.

Delivering Phase 0 by the end of 2020 has long been a goal of the Ethereum community. Justin Drake tweeted in July: "The community wants phase 0 genesis in 2020 — not one day late. The goal is set; let's ship ".

The Quantstamp team seems to have taken this appeal to heart. "Customer teams have spent countless hours coordinating, testing and working with audit firms to make sure the Ethereum 2.0 basics are ready to deliver," added Ma.

Teku's audit included the enforcement of consensus rules and maintaining the code and controls required for rewards and punishments.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken below the support at the level of $394.85 and $389.90 to hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $385.68. The low was made at the level of $381.30, which is just below the technical support located at $383.59. The momentum is now weak and neagative, so if the bulls will not bounce fast, the market might drop lower towards the next target seen at the level of $372.52 or $369.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $490.39
WR2 - $455.51
WR1 - $435.03

Weekly Pivot - $398.88
WS1 - $379.21
WS2 - $342.87
WS3 - $323.39


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
According to the official announcement, Toyota Systems, the IT division of Toyota Motor Corporation, is working with the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange DeCurret to develop Toyota's branded digital currency. The pilot will cover 2,500 employees at Toyota Systems.

According to the announcement, participating employees will be able to exchange digital currency for benefit points or gifts from the catalog. Toyota Systems noted that digital currency cannot be exchanged for Japanese yen.

The new pilot program uses DeCurret's proprietary blockchain-based platform to issue and manage digital currencies. The pilot will test the scalability of the peer-to-peer model on the blockchain and business issues related to payments to a large group of people.

Toyota is actively exploring the blockchain industry by establishing its own Toyota Blockchain Lab in March 2020. The automotive industry joined the R3 consortium, a major industry alliance, in 2016.

Toyota is not the only car manufacturer experimenting with blockchain and crypto. Earlier, in October, BMW Korea announced that it would be the first subsidiary in the BMW Group to conduct a blockchain-based token test with a view to fully launch it domestically by the end of 2020.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair had made a new yearly high at the level of $13,300 and since then is trading in a horizontal trend, consolidating the recent gains. The local lows are shallow, so the bulls are still in control of this market. If the level of $13,300 is clearly violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $13,698. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $12,625 and as long as is not broken the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $15,886
WR2 - $14,555
WR1 - $13,946

Weekly Pivot - $12,537
WS1 - $11,955
WS2 - $10,713
WS3 - $10,093


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $14,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 27,.2020 - BTC is heading towards my target at $13.830. Strong upside condition

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC is trading higher as I expected and is heading towards our upside objective at the price of $13,835.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to grow, exhibits positive trade prospects

The largest debit electronic payment system, PayPal, announced that its users will be able to buy, sell, and store cryptocurrencies, and starting next year, they will be able to pay it in 26 million stores.

This news once again confirms the theory of Bitcoin's antifragile instrument - "That which does not kill us, only makes us stronger." Who would have thought that the first purchase in 2010 with the help of a Bitcoin surrogate would end with international use, and not just in the form of some money transfers, but widespread use, like ordinary monetary units.

The famous billionaire and CEO of Galaxy Investment, Michael Novogratz, expressed his opinion on the PayPal news that market giants such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express will also follow the path of cryptocurrency instruments very soon.

"The question no longer arises whether cryptocurrencies are an object of interest, whether bitcoin is an asset, whether the blockchain will become part of the financial infrastructure. The question is not whether it will happen, the question is when it will happen. Each and every company should have its own plan, "said Novogratz.

Note that last year there was more than once news that Visa and Mastercard were actively recruiting staff for crypto departments. In fact, they are in the process of opening a new segment of instruments.

The next and important news is devoted to large players, even in the last article we wrote that influential funds with tens of billions of dollars in assets come to the crypto industry on a monthly basis. Now we have conducted a survey among European institutional investors, including banks, asset managers, and pension funds from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. The total amount of assets under the management of the respondents is more than 719 billion euros.

So, following from the survey, 61% of institutional investors have already invested in cryptocurrencies or are going to do so. This is a good signal that confidence in the new market is growing, and that trust is followed by asset growth and stability.

The series of positive news ends with a new record for Bitcoin - addresses with volumes of 1000 BTC or more on their wallets. So, now there are 2231 such addresses, and their percentage is growing, and this is due to the fact that institutional investors come to the market with new funds.

As you can see from the material provided above, the crypto environment is developing and death and collapse are no longer predicted for it, but, on the contrary, infrastructure is being worked out for more effective use.



Trade prospects:
The Bitcoin quote has repeatedly updated the maximum of the current year, there are literally several hundred dollars left, and under the pressure of buyers, the maximum of 2019 will fall to $13,868, and this moment will come very soon.

The parallels between 2017 and 2020 continue to appear in the market, it is worth being prepared for the fact that we will see not just an update of the local maximum, but a completely new historical maximum for Bitcoin.

Regarding the price outlook, the breakdown of the $13,868 coordinate will lead to even greater excitement, where the December 2017 high of $19,891 will be hit. Imagine what would happen if the $19,891 - $20,000 area fell. Google Trends will go off scale, and in every gateway, they will discuss Bitcoin and its new successes, this will lead to even more cash injections.

In the latter case, everything is not so simple, since the high excitement will lead to acceleration, and this, in turn, will lead to the risk of a local collapse in the form of fixing excess profits, but we will talk about this in subsequent articles on cryptocurrencies.



General background of the crypto market:
Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, you can see that the Total Market gained $73 billion in October and is currently $399 billion, where the $400 billion mark has already been passed by the market.

An upward trend is visible to the naked eye, where the market volume is already at the level of 2018, and this is not a chapel. The consistent growth of the Total Market may lead not only to the renewal of the peak of $ 831 billion but to a completely new horizon in the form of $1 trillion.

Market Cap: $399,077,102,663

BTC Dominance: 61.9%



The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market in October dropped to 40 points, but then leveled off and is now on the positive side, above 60. In fact, we have a desire for further growth than the fear of a collapse.



Indicator analysis:
Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments relative to the four-hour, daily, and weekly periods signal a buy, which is confirmed in the market by the upward movement of the Bitcoin price.







Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Mining data aggregators attribute the decline in Bitcoin's hash rate to the end of the rainy season in Sichuan. This time causes many miners in China to migrate to other jurisdictions.

Thomas Heller of Hashr8 reported on Twitter that around 22 EH / s of mining capacity left the Bitcoin network on October 26. Heller noted that the decline coincided with the end of the rainy season in China.

Kevin Zhang of Digital Currency Group, a bitcoin mining company, also estimated a decline of 20 EH / s. He noted that Bitcoin's seven-day average hash rate was 132.9 EH / s. On a daily basis, the ratio was 112.9 EH / s.

Blockchain.com estimates that Bitcoin's hash rate dropped from 151.1 EH / s on October 24 to 116.3 EH / s the next day. At the time of preparing this publication, the decline is even more visible - to 109.3 EH / s yesterday.

Sichuan Province is one of the world's largest mining centers. Miners gather there to take advantage of cheap hydropower during the rainy season, and then leave just as quickly.

The latest data from the Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (BECI) of the University of Cambridge estimate that the province represented 18.5% of the global hash rate in April 2020. This was twice the rate before the rainy season.


Technical Market Outlook:
The up trend on Bitcoin continues, so the BTC/USD pair has made a new yearly high at the level of $13,788 and since then is trading in a horizontal trend, consolidating the recent gains. The local lows are shallow, so the bulls are still in control of this market. If the level of $13,698 is clearly violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $14,000. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $12,625 and as long as is not broken the odds for another wave up are high. The intraday supports are seen at the levels of $13,296 and $13,116.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $15,886
WR2 - $14,555
WR1 - $13,946

Weekly Pivot - $12,537
WS1 - $11,955
WS2 - $10,713
WS3 - $10,093


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $14,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 28 October 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
The Chinese central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has released a bill that aims to provide a regulatory framework and legitimacy for the central bank's future digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan.

The bill stipulates that the yuan is the official currency of the People's Republic of China, in both physical and digital form.

The bill also appears to address third party efforts to target yuan-based digital currencies by stating that individuals and institutions are not allowed to produce and issue a currency that is intended to 'replace' the digital yuan circulation. This move is likely to criminalize all non-state sanctioned yuan-based stablecoins.

Criminal measures against violators of this proposed law are strict: first of all, confiscating all profits, destroying all tokens and imposing a fine of no less than five times the illegal amount, and the possibility of criminal prosecution and imprisonment.

The People's Bank of China explained that the draft of the new law is open for public consultation until November 23, 2020.

Previous reports indicated that China hopes to start officially issuing digital yuan ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. In addition, earlier this month, China conducted a major digital payment system test in Shenzhen, with nearly 47,500 residents taking away 200 yuan ($ 30). ) in digital currency, which they then spent in 3,389 stores across the city.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the ETH/USD pair had broken below the support at the level of $394.85 and hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $385.68, the bulls reacted quickly and managed to bounce back above $400. The local high was made at the level of $408.45, just above the key short-term technical resistance seen at the level of $407.03. The trend line resistance is still a problem for bulls, but if it is finally broken, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $414.11 and $416.71. The intraday technical support is located at $400.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $490.39
WR2 - $455.51
WR1 - $435.03

Weekly Pivot - $398.88
WS1 - $379.21
WS2 - $342.87
WS3 - $323.39


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020