Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Russian financial authorities have confirmed the government's plans to issue a digital currency of the central bank, i.e. the CBDC.

The Bank of Russia released yesterday a consultation document on the digital development of the Russian ruble. In a press release, the central bank said the digital ruble could become "an additional form of money alongside cash and non-cash". The bank said the creation of the Russian CBDC project will require the creation of additional payment infrastructure.

The bank also said the digital ruble will have "all the properties necessary to perform the functions of money." In addition, he noted that the project schedule will be determined by the authorities in the near future.

According to the document, the digital ruble aims to speed up, simplify and make payments more secure. The bank also noted that a CBDC such as the digital ruble will reduce the risk of capital outflow, stating:

"The domestic digital currency will also reduce the risk of reallocation of funds to foreign digital currencies, contributing to macroeconomic and financial stability."

The bank further claims that users will be able to access the digital ruble on their e-wallets and mobile devices and be able to use it both online and offline.

The digital ruble will be available to "all actors in the economy" such as citizens, businesses, financial market participants and the government. The bank added that the digital ruble will have three functions of money, including a custody, unit of account and medium of exchange.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support seen at $375.52 and got back to the middle of the range. It has been consolidating in a narrow range for some time now as the market participants await for the important breakout. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and due to the strong and positive momentum they might hit this level soon. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $440.56
WR2 - $409.44
WR1 - $39440

Weekly Pivot - $363.37
WS1 - $349.03
WS2 - $317.19
WS3 - $302.61


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Blocktower Capital co-founder Ari Paul believes PayPal will show support for Bitcoin before the end of this year. This follows the recent investment by Jack Dorsey and MicroStrategy's Square, who bought Tens of millions of dollars in BTC.

PayPal has repeatedly emphasized that it is closely monitoring what is happening in the cryptocurrency sector. The first signals regarding the interest of the online payment giant in blockchain technology date back to 2018. We recently informed you that PayPal is very actively looking for blockchain and cryptocurrency specialists to join its ranks.

Ari Paul comments on the matter as follows:

"The news of Square's buying BTC is great, but PayPal has ten times as many users. I think PayPal will announce bitcoin support by the end of this year."

Tyler Raynolds, who once worked with Google Payments, seems to share a similar attitude. He believes that Paypal is most geared to becoming a pillar of retail BTC payments:

It is estimated that nearly 325 million users around the world use PayPal's services. If the American payment giant really decided to fully enter cryptocurrency retail, bitcoin would be immediately available to an extremely wide range of investors.

It can also be assumed that such a move by PayPal would have a significant impact on the liquidity and trading volume of BTC. This, in turn, with a high degree of certainty, could have a significant impact on accelerating the global adoption of the cryptocurrency.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair had made a new local high at the level of $11,679, just above the technical resistance seen at $11,646, the bears took temporary control over the market and push it back towards the technical support located at $11,223. The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone for the last 24h, still below the supply zone. Please notice, Bitcoin is now trying to enter the supply zone located between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785, so some kind of the bearish pressure might be seen. In that case, the price might pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $11,223 or $11,062. Any violation of the last one will likely result in a further correction towards the level of $10,940 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,712
WR2 - $12,078
WR1 - $11,737

Weekly Pivot - $11,125
WS1 - $10,786
WS2 - $10,156
WS3 - $9,820


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 14,.2020 - Bull flag pattern on the 4H time-frame and potential for the rally towards $12.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that buyers are still in control and that there is the bull flag pattern in creation based on the 4H time-frame.

My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities with the take profit at the price of $12,000

The main cause of the most recent upside cycle on BTC was the breakout of the contraction and symmetrical triangle in the background.


Resistance: $12,000

Support level: $11,300




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A study by the World Economic Forum and the Global Blockchain Business Council reveals the reasons why the blockchain industry still lacks well-defined standards at a global level.

The study, dubbed the Global Standards Mapping Initiative, noted that the gaps, discrepancies, and overlaps in the standard-setting landscape of the blockchain industry are the greatest challenges facing the industry.

Most of the industry standard setting organizations have shown great interest in some specific areas while completely neglecting others. This causes some sections of the blockchain industry to overlap, leaving a gap in the standardization of other parts.

The interest and scope of standard-setting activities also changed with the hype around technology. Many organizations that set out to set standards during the peak of the blockchain hype have either shut down or haven't produced any reasonable results yet.

According to the report, the five most common areas with overlapping interests are security, Internet of Things, identity, DLT requirements, and DLT terminology.

While there is tremendous interest in setting DLT terminology standards, the study indicates that blockchain terminology around the world remains uncertain. According to the report, consistent definitions and terminologies for the blockchain industry are key to the industry's development.

The study suggests that the blockchain industry still lacks standards that can formally define the suitability of blockchain technology for specific processes. Setting global standards in this regard can help more players assess the potential of a technology for their business and understand its benefits and possible risks.

There are also no formal standards that define the procedure for testing blockchain platforms. As we read in the report, most of the innovation in the industry so far has occurred through industry entities and technical evolution, not through formalization and standardization.

The solution suggests that regulators should become familiar with the technology before setting national or global standards. The report mentions that "the effectiveness of the standards will ultimately come down to a degree of understanding of the technology."

Organizations and regulators conducting closed operations to establish blockchain standards have also caused a lot of confusion.


Technical Market Outlook:
The bearish pressure is clearly visible on the Ethereum, despite the fact that the ETH/USD pair had bounced from the technical support seen at $375.52 and got back to the middle of the range. During this spike down a new low was made at the level of $372.63 and then ETH/USD has been consolidating in a narrow range for some time now as the market participants await for the important breakout continuation. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and due to the strong and positive momentum they might hit this level soon. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $440.56
WR2 - $409.44
WR1 - $39440

Weekly Pivot - $363.37
WS1 - $349.03
WS2 - $317.19
WS3 - $302.61


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Another batch of 50 BTC, which has been lying untouched since 2010, has been moved today from home addresses. Their value is estimated at about $ 570,000 today. The block explorer data shows that these 50 coins were first sent to this address on November 9, 2010 as part of a Coinbase transaction. This means, no less than that, that these BTCs were the block mining award that was awarded to the miner.

No other transactions took place on this wallet. Until today, of course. The only exception is 0.00000547 BTC, which was sent to this address at the end of August in a spam-like transaction (over 300 different wallets were affected). Most likely it was a so-called "dust attack", mainly used to track BTC movements.

The coins were sent to three different addresses today: two Bech32 (SegWit format) and one P2SH, mainly used for multi-signature and non-native SegWit transactions. The transfers were 30.16, 12.48 and 7.34 BTC respectively.

Recently, more and more coins from Bitcoin's earliest days are "waking up". As of early October, two batches - 50 BTC ($ 570,000) and 1,000 BTC ($ 11.4 million) - have been moved out of deep sleep. Earlier, in May, another batch of BTC was released.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair had made a new local high at the level of $11,679, just above the technical resistance seen at $11,646, the bears took temporary control over the market and push it back towards the technical support located at $11,223. Since then the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone located between the levels of $11,439 - $11,250, still below the supply zone. Please notice, Bitcoin is now trying to enter the supply zone located between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785, so some kind of the bearish pressure might be seen. In that case, the price might pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $11,223 or $11,062. Any violation of the last one will likely result in a further correction towards the level of $10,940 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,712
WR2 - $12,078
WR1 - $11,737

Weekly Pivot - $11,125
WS1 - $10,786
WS2 - $10,156
WS3 - $9,820


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 15,.2020 - Bull flag pattern in creation and potential for test of $12.000

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is the potential completion of the bull flag pattern in the background based on the 4H time-frame.


Key Levels:

Resistance levels: $11,675, $12,035 and $12,460

Support level: $11,115




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD on 16 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to data published by Chain.info, approximately 10.6% of the bitcoin supply currently in circulation is in the hands of just five centralized exchanges.

More than 1.96 million BTC is currently between the major exchanges Coinbase, Huobi, Binance, OKEx and Kraken.

Probably thanks to fiduciary services, Coinbase has by far the most, 944,904 BTC scattered around 4.39 million different wallet addresses.

Huobi ranks second with 323,665 BTC stored in approximately 901,600 unique wallets, followed by Binance with 289,961 BTC for nearly 2.7 million addresses. OKEx has 276,184 BTC in 339,000 wallets, while Kraken has 126,510 Bitcoins at 672,000 addresses.

The next seven exchanges in the list include - Bitflyer, BIttrex, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Coincheck, Gate.io and Bitstamp. They keep another 210,000 Bitcoins among themselves.

The data shows that many users still prefer to accept the risk of holding a significant portion of their assets on centralized exchanges, all despite the cryptocurrency's fundamental ethos of decentralization and the mantra-repeated slogan "not your keys, not your Bitcoin."

The percentage of the supply of BTC stored on five centralized exchanges may actually exceed 10%. Chainalysis estimates 3.7 million BTC, which has not changed in over five years, is likely to be lost. If this is true, then almost 15% of Bitcoin resources are currently stored on five centralized platforms.


Technical Market Outlook:
The bears took temporary control over the market and push BTC/USD back towards the technical support located at $11,223. Since then the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone located between the levels of $11,439 - $11,250, still below the supply zone. Please notice, Bitcoin is now trying to enter the supply zone located between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785, so some kind of the bearish pressure might be seen. In that case, the price might pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $11,223 or $11,062. Any violation of the last one will likely result in a further correction towards the level of $10,940 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,712
WR2 - $12,078
WR1 - $11,737

Weekly Pivot - $11,125
WS1 - $10,786
WS2 - $10,156
WS3 - $9,820


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD on 16 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
More than half of all Ethereum in circulation has not been transferred between addresses for over a year. In the last 12 months, only 39.6% of all ETH coins changed hands.

According to Glassnode's hodlwaves, which provides a chronological breakdown of the transaction speed along the chain, approximately 28% of Ethereum has moved between the last 12 and 24 months. This is the largest business segment in the chain.

The data suggests that many whales in 2019 focused on accumulation of ETH, due to the ETH 2.0 project fast approaching. Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 is set to begin in the coming months and will allow users to stack ETH for the first time.

About 20% of the tokens have not made any moves since before October 2017. Analysts are monitoring whether some of these coins will be staked with the introduction of phase 0.

The impending launch of Phase 0 appears to have started the recent increase in the short-term speed of transfers in the chain. The 24-hour share of the Ethereum network increased from less than 0.5% in January and February to an average of over 1% in early September.

The weekly speed also increased from 1.5% at the beginning of the year to 5% in both July and September. A similar steady increase since June, also recorded monthly and quarterly transfers.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $363.41 as the bearish pressure intensify. The makret keep moving below the short-term trend line resistance with negative and weak momentum. The target for bears is seen at the level of $360.60 and $355.60. On the other hand, the target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400 and due to the strong and positive momentum they might hit this level soon. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $440.56
WR2 - $409.44
WR1 - $39440

Weekly Pivot - $363.37
WS1 - $349.03
WS2 - $317.19
WS3 - $302.61


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Although the recent developments around BitMEX seemed to shake up the entire market, bitcoin itself remained indifferent. Despite the fact that the largest cryptocurrency felt enormous pressure to sell, it did not give up and was able to go up to $ 11,731. This is a price level that we haven't seen for a long time.

Interestingly, even as Square announced its investment in Bitcoin, the market absorbed the news and did not behave very volatile. Many investors have pointed out that bitcoin has developed a maturity that the largest institutions are not indifferent to.

According to Arcane Research, the Bakkt exchange witnessed another record month of trading between September and October. The increased interest on the part of institutions resulted mainly from the interest of companies such as Microstrategy and Square. As the stock exchange is dedicated to institutional investors in the US, the above volume increase suggested a growing demand for BTC among institutions.

Arcane Research highlights the importance of this growth. He notes that 400 BTC contracts expired on Bakkt in October. This was an increase of 14% from September. The number of open contracts for Bakkt has been gradually increasing since mid-September. Open Interest was about $ 18 million as of October 15, but a day later it was down $ 3 million.

Other platforms widely used by institutions were LMAX Digital and CME, which also saw an increase in volume in October. According to Skew, LMAX Digital came second in terms of 24-hour BTC spot volume, right after Coinbase.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating in the narrow zone located between the levels of $11,439 - $11,250 for all the weekend. Bitcoin keeps trying to enter into the supply zone located between the levels of $11,646 - $11,785, so some kind of the bearish pressure might be seen. In that case, the price might pull-back towards the technical support seen at the level of $11,223 or $11,062. Any violation of the last one will likely result in a further correction towards the level of $10,940 or below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,229
WR2 - $11,973
WR1 - $11,678

Weekly Pivot - 11,375
WS1 - $11,077
WS2 - $10,755
WS3 - $10,461


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Ethereum 2.0 test network, Medalla, turned out to be a complete flop, and the share of users who test it fell to just 1.5%. Due to the low activity of the testers, the risk of a hard fork is quite significant. On Ethereum block 515616, the Medall update threw an error and stopped working. Therefore, a hard fork may be needed to resolve the problem.

Currently, Ethereum users have turned back to the Zinken update. One of the developers working on ETH 2.0 - Preston van Loon, developer of Prysm, stated:

"We were delighted with the successful launch of our dress rehearsals thanks to the short-lived Zinken test network, and now it's time to bring our attention back to Medall."

Although there are no real ETHs at Medalla, there is also no incentive for users to just leave the network. Even if the worst happens, no one will lose their funds. Unfortunately, this situation also creates problems, because many users stay in Medalli just to "see what happens" and that only creates more problems.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the local low made at the level of $360.97 and managed to retrace 50% of the last wave down. The target for bulls is still seen at the level of $400, but for now the local high was made at $379.16 and the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the end of the move. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $389.90 and at the swing top at $394.95. On the other hand, the target for bears is seen at the level of $360.60 and $355.60 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $369.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $424.52
WR2 - $408.88
WR1 - $391.97

Weekly Pivot - $376.47
WS1 - $357.63
WS2 - $341.22
WS3 - $328.22


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. Moreover, bulls had bounced from the weekly trend line support last week and now are away from it. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020