Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 29 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A new study by cryptocurrency mining company Genesis Mining suggests that most US citizens are against the introduction of a central bank digital currency. A Genesis Mining study found that of the 400 participants, less than 25% agreed with the proposal that the government should ditch paper money in favor of the digital dollar, while more than half were against it.

However, the number of CBDC supporters almost doubled in 12 months, with only 13% of respondents in favor of the digital dollar when this question was asked in 2019.

While more than 85% of survey respondents expressed knowledge of crypto assets, many associate virtual currencies with criminal activity, possibly contributing to weak support for CBDC.

The report also found poor understanding of monetary policy among the general public, finding that 38% of respondents believe the US dollar is backed by gold, bonds or oil, and an additional 13% simply do not know. Despite the lack of interest in monetary policy, 88% of respondents indicated inflation as critical.

In August, the Bank of Canada released a study that found that financial literate respondents were half as likely to own cryptocurrencies than the general public.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair rally had been terminated at the minor supply zone located between the levels of $10,890 - $10,940 and the market reversed. Moreover, the price has broken the short-term trend line support around the level of $10,700 and made a local low at the level of $10,597 already. The momentum remains neutral, but it the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,586 and $10,430.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,934
WR2 - $11,451
WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558
WS1 - $10,238
WS2 -$9,737
WS3 - $9,392


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 29,.2020 - Broken rising trend-channel in the background and potential for the new down swing towards $10.150

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found good sell-zone location at $10,800 and lack of buying power, which is good sign for selling opportunities.

There is the breakout of the rising channel in the background based on the hourly time-frame, which is another confirmation for the further downside continuation. It is also the test of the middle Bollinger band on hourly.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $10,565 and $10,155.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $10,800

Support levels: 10,565 and $10,155.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 30 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
ETH's inflows to exchanges fell 53% in less than a week, which could set an alarm for DeFi traders. Influence into exchanges fell from $ 3.15 million on September 21 to $ 1.48 million at the time of writing. While the decline in ETH sustained on the exchanges can be viewed as a bearish signal, the price has dropped less than 5% in the past 30 days.

The Ethereum network has also been a place of great activity lately. In fact, the same can be attributed to DeFi traders' active market share. While this increases coverage and creates high online demand, it underscores the fact that Ethereum's liquidity is critical to DeFi.

The decline in ETH liquidity could have a direct impact on ETH miners and traders investing in DeFi projects. Before DeFi surged, unrealized gains were driven by ETH's price action. However, when the charges on the ETH network hit the new ATH along with the increased activity of DeFi. While the impact of the decline in ETH liquidity is not yet visible on the spot exchanges, the same is visible on the derivatives exchanges.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the ETH/USD pair had made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the level of $367.58, the market has reversed and fell out of the ascending channel around the level of $355. The local low was made at the level of $350.14, but the target for bears is seen at the level of $345.40. The price is now consolidating in a narrow horizontal range, so if the level of $345.40 is clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of $332.38. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing south.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $446.64
WR2 - $410.95
WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99
WS1 - $319.88
WS2 -$284.46
WS3 - $256.92


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev said information leaked in the recent FinCen leak confirms the existence of the crypto industry. According to the leak, the world's leading financial institutions have cleared more than $ 2 trillion in "suspicious" transactions. Deutsche Bank alone settled over USD 1.3 trillion of this amount. Trenchev said:

"The first thing I feel is regaining rights because, as everyone has been saying for years, all this Bitcoin and money laundering in one breath. We've heard it from regulators, politicians, bankers, almost everyone. money laundering is still the US dollar and it is still the current financial system:

Trenchev also highlighted the fact that the only company that was listed for any cryptocurrency affiliation was OneCoin, and even that was a stretch in his opinion. As for bankers, Trenchev believes there is little incentive to limit money laundering and other illegal activities as the punishment appears rather forgiving. In fact, such activities can be very profitable. Nexo also submits "various reports of suspicious activity" to relevant regulatory authorities around the world. Trenchev said about 4% of Nexo's transactions are flagged. The company is also forced to comply with US sanctions and blacklisted countries such as Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair rally had been terminated at the narrow supply zone located between the levels of $10,890 - $10,940, the market pulled-back to the level of $10,586 and then bounced again to test the short-term trend line breakout level seen at $10,845. The bulls were not strong enough to break back above the trend line and the price is moving towards the level of $10,586 again. The momentum remains neutral, but it the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,430 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,934
WR2 - $11,451
WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558
WS1 - $10,238
WS2 -$9,737
WS3 - $9,392


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 30,.2020 - Broken upside channel in the background and potential for the bigger drtop towards $10.150

Technical Analysis


BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10,700. There is potential for the bigger drop towards the $10,150 due to breakout of the rising trendline in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $10,555 and $10,150.

Resistance is seen at the price $10,850




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 01 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a big step towards streamlining digital asset clearing in the form of securities, shortening the previous four-step process to three to reduce operational risk for broker-dealers.

The SEC issued a no-action letter stating it would not penalize any Alternative Trading System (ATS) broker that trades digital securities if it complies with the new guidelines.

According to the regulator, several ATS want to use the simplified model in cases where there is no trust over traded assets. Most ATS follows a four-step process: first, the buyer and seller send orders to the Dealership, second, the Dealership matches the orders, third, the Dealership notifies the buyer and seller of the matched transaction, and finally the transaction is settled bilaterally, between themselves or through their guardians.

However, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) has called for more clarity on this process in cases where the broker-dealer cannot physically hold the assets.

Some broker-dealers felt that this four-step model put them at too much risk. ATS requested permission to improve the process. According to the no-action letter, this process would include:

Step 1 - Buyers and sellers submit their orders to the ATS, notify their trustees of their orders placed with the ATS and instruct their trustees to settle the trades in accordance with the terms of their orders when the ATS notifies the match trustees at the ATS;

Step 2 - ATS matches the commands;

Step 3 - ATS notifies the buyer and seller and their respective trustees of the matched transaction, and the trustees execute the conditional instructions.

While the document expresses SEC employees' view of the enforcement, and is not a legal ruling, it is further evidence that regulatory oversight of virtual assets is becoming more sophisticated and nuanced.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair keeps trading inside of the narrow consolidation zone located between the levels of $10,586 - $10,890. The bulls were not strong enough to break back above the trend line and the price started to consolidate horizontally. Nevertheless, the momentum remains positive, but if the bearish pressure intensify, the sell-off might continue towards the level of $10,430 and below. Weekly time frame trend remains up, but to continue the higher time frame trend, bulls must violate the supply zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,233.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,934
WR2 - $11,451
WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558
WS1 - $10,238
WS2 -$9,737
WS3 - $9,392


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 01 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Ethereum has been very popular this year, usually not for good reasons. Namely, network congestion and high gas costs often put gas in the spotlight. While the reason for speeding up these problems was the boom on DeFi protocols in Ethereum, some projects have already started work on a solution such as Synthetix (SNX).

Synthetix, along with other DeFi platforms such as Uniswap, Aave and Curve, is working closely together to introduce scaling solutions. According to a recent update, Synthetix struggled with high fees before being upgraded to a primitive L2 scaling version on September 24th. Dubbed the "Fomalhaut" update, this is the first phase of L2's migration to Optimistic Ethereum. As it was written on the Synthetix blog:

"This will be a network testing incentive to lower gas costs for SNX's small stackers."

This would make collecting prizes for small stakes cheaper as opposed to the hundreds of dollars deposited previously.

Thanks to Synthetix's plan to deal with congestion and high tolls, it has also managed to attract the attention of the DeFi community. With the growing importance of scaling solutions and DeFi, SNX has also reached the quotes on Bitfinex and Gemini.


Technical Market Outlook:
The local low at the ETH/USD pair was recently made at the level of $350 and since then the market bounced towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement again. This Fibonacci level is located at $362.92 and if clearly violated, then the bulls will eye the next technical target seen at $369,37 and $375.52. If this two levels are violated, then the bulls will regain the control over the market for longer. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing north.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $446.64
WR2 - $410.95
WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99
WS1 - $319.88
WS2 -$284.46
WS3 - $256.92


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 01,.2020 - Inside day pattern in creation, watch for the breakout to confirm further direction

Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is potential for the upswing to develop in order to complete the potential ABC upside correction.



The key pivot level is set at the price of $10,950 and $11,100

Yesterday was the inside day pattern and I would like to watch for the breakout to confirm further short-term direction.

In case of the upside breakout, there is change for the test of $11,100

In case of the downside breakout of support at $10,600, there is chance for test of $10,240


Key Levels:

Resistance: $11,100

Support level: $10,600




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 02 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has accused the BitMEX derivatives exchange of operating an unregistered trading platform and violating anti-money laundering laws.

According to a statement released on Thursday, the CFTC has filed a civil suit in the South District of New York against five entities and three individuals who allegedly own and operate the stock exchange.

The accused include Arthur Hayes, known publicly as the CEO of BitMEX, as well as Ben Delo and Samuel Reed. The CFTC claims that these individuals own and operate BitMEX through a "maze of corporate entities".

The aforementioned corporate entities that are also cited as defendants in the case are HDR Global Trading Limited, 100x Holding Limited, ABS Global Trading Limited, Shine Effort Inc Limited, and HDR Global Services (Bermuda) Limited (BitMEX).

The CFTC aims to lift or fix all "unfair profits", civil fines, permanent trade bans, and orders against future violations. They believe that BitMEX has been offering retail traders $ 1 trillion in face value illegal leveraged trading services since its inception in 2014. Despite its success, the CFTC believes the exchange has failed to adopt "most basic compliance procedures". These include failure to register with the commission, unfamiliarity with the client and anti-money laundering procedures.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has reacted to the BitMex exchange news negatively and dropped lower from the level of $10,890 to the level of $10,353 (at the time of writing the article). This move down has support in momentum, that is breaking into the negative territory. It looks like the market will test the level of $10,000 sooner or later as there is a clear negative sentiment that dominated the Bitcoin trading. The next intraday supports are seen at the levels of $10,344 and $10, 260.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,934
WR2 - $11,451
WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558
WS1 - $10,238
WS2 -$9,737
WS3 - $9,392


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 02 October 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said his country's government now sees cryptocurrencies as a potential way to avoid sanctions. On September 29, Maduro introduced a new law to help the country overcome the impact of US sanctions.

As part of the project, Venezuela will check the possibility of using various cryptocurrencies in both domestic and foreign trade. Maduro argued that the new anti-sanction law covers both private and state-supported crypto initiatives such as the cryptocurrency linked to crude oil in Venezuela, Petro:

"The anti-sanction law is the first response [...] aimed at giving new strength to Petro and other domestic and global cryptocurrencies and, in domestic and foreign trade, so that all cryptocurrencies in the world, state and private, can be used. It is an important project that is under development ".

According to online reports, the new law is currently being examined by Venezuela's legislative body, the National Constitutional Assembly.

The latest news apparently shows that Venezuela's interest in cryptocurrencies is not limited to the domestic Petro crypto, which has been placed as a major tool to evade US sanctions.

Maduro's new words came shortly after the Venezuelan government issued an official regulatory framework for mining cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. On September 23, Venezuelan national oversight of crypto assets and related activities issued the first decree regulating all cryptocurrency mining activities, setting out specific requirements for miners, including such as the obligation to join a so-called "domestic production pool". Maduro did not support any cryptocurrencies other than the state-owned Petro.

At the end of 2019, the president of Venezuela announced that retirees and pensioners will receive Christmas bonuses in Petro. In late 2018, the Venezuelan government converted the monthly pensioners' bonus into Petro.

Petro, officially introduced in February 2018, has become the world's first domestic cryptocurrency to be fired in oil. The coin is supposed to attract foreign investment as well as avoid sanctions from the US government. However, the token is not available for purchase outside of Venezuela.


Technical Market Outlook:
Despite the fact that the 61% Fibonacci retracement levels has been broken, the ETH/USD pair has reversed all the gains and made fresh local low at the level of $340.29 (at the time of writing the article). The bears are now in control over the Ethereum market and the next target for them is seen at the level of $332.38 and $321.95. Please notice, that only a clear and sustained violation of the demand zone located between the levels of $321.95 - $305.20 will open the road towards the key mid-term technical support located at the level of $288.85.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $446.64
WR2 - $410.95
WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99
WS1 - $319.88
WS2 -$284.46
WS3 - $256.92


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020