Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 24 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Speaking at an online meeting of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly, Lagarde said the bank was analyzing the "benefits, risks and operational challenges" of the European Central Bank's Digital Currency (CBDC), but that fiat currency is likely to continue to play a role in this digital future:

"The digital euro could be a complement to, not a substitute for cash. This could be an alternative to private digital currencies and ensure that sovereign money remains at the center of European payment systems."

On September 10, the ECB president said the Eurosystem had yet to decide whether to introduce the digital euro, but said a task force set up to investigate the potential impact of CBDC on Europe would be announced "in the coming weeks".

Lagarde has long supported the central bank in developing the digital euro to meet the steps towards digitization. In September last year, when she was the head of the International Monetary Fund, the ECB president announced that she would focus on ensuring that the EU institutions adapt to the changing financial environment through openness to cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of $10,092 and the bounce was very short-lived. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,343. The upside momentum had clearly decreased and if the bearish pressure intensify, the market might extend a correction towards the level of $10,000 (intraday support, psychological level) or $9,863 (lower technical support). The weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,186
WR2 - $11,616
WR1 - $11,271

Weekly Pivot - $10,739
WS1 - $10,293
WS2 - $9,807
WS3 - $9,393


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 24 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Catherine Coley, CEO of the US cryptocurrency exchange Binance, says the adoption of cryptocurrencies may be one of the only ways for companies to be "pandemic-proof" in the future.

In an online interview, Coley said cryptocurrencies may offer "uses beyond speculation" where investors can engage in e-commerce transactions, run new businesses, and other real-world uses such as mortgages:

"If you build a business in the next five years and don't treat digital assets as an ingredient, you are unconsciously stepping in. It's a pandemic-proof case."

The president continued that in the future, companies should draw inspiration from cryptocurrencies, which made talking about money more accessible to the average person, but also more accessible to professionals dealing with traditional finance.

"It's an industry that reaches a much different audience than finance. (...) there are so many benefits to it that people don't appreciate."

Coley has been CEO of Binance.US since 2019. Last month, the stock market announced that it had overcome regulatory hurdles to expand into Florida, Alabama and Georgia.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out from a Triangle pattern as anticipated and hit the technical support located at the level of $321.95. The zone located between the levels of $321.95 - $305.20 is the key mid-term demand zone, so traders should expect some price reaction from this area. The key short-term technical resistance is seen at the level of $332.38 and $355.24.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $426.36
WR2 - $409.08
WR1 - $387.32

Weekly Pivot - $370.45
WS1 - $348.67
WS2 - $331.18
WS3 - $309.49


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 24,.2020 - Bear flag in creation on the hourly time-frame. Potential for drop towards the level of $9.850

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I still see potential for the new downside leg towards the levels at $10,140 and $9,854.

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found that there is the bear flag pattern in creation.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with take profits at $10,140 and $9,855

Stochastic oscillator is looking overbought, which is another sign for the potential downside rotation....


Key Levels:

Resistance: $10,500

Support level: 10,140 and $9,855




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 25 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Venezuelan government said it had legalized the mining of Bitcoin and altcoins - however, it added that miners would need to obtain licenses and consent to regulatory oversight.

According to media agency Criptonoticias, the government has issued an official decree stating that all cryptocurrency mining platform manufacturers, cryptocurrency farm builders and mining equipment importers will also be subject to random checks.

Citizens looking to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will need to apply for a license from the National Crypto Asset and Related Activities Authority (SUNACRIP), which will oversee miners in the country.

SUNACRIP did not mention how much the license would cost, but added that pricing details would be made available through an online system that is currently under construction.

The regulator added that it will create a "comprehensive miners registry", an online database containing detailed information about individual miners detailing what kind of mining activity they conduct, whether they sell, manufacture, import or use cryptocurrency mining equipment.

The new rules don't stop there: SUNACRIP has created what it calls the National Digital Mining Pool, insisting that membership is "mandatory" - and non-compliance will be sanctioned. The regulator said the measures it had taken were part of an effort to "connect all Venezuelan miners".

According to figures published earlier this year by the Center for Alternative Finance at the University of Cambridge, Venezuela is the largest Bitcoin miner in Latin America and ranks among the world's top ten.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the key technical support zone located between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95 and made a new local high at the level of $352.80, just below the technical resistance seen at the level of $355.24. The bounce had ended with a Shooting Star candlestick pattern, so the market might be ready to reverse and continue lower. Only a sustained breakout above the level of $352.80 would have change the current negative outlook for Ethereum.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $426.36
WR2 - $409.08
WR1 - $387.32

Weekly Pivot - $370.45
WS1 - $348.67
WS2 - $331.18
WS3 - $309.49


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Russian Ministry of Finance continues to push through regulations for the cryptocurrency industry by proposing new tax requirements. This time, the ministry wants to introduce criminal liability for failure to declare cryptocurrency transactions.

According to a report by local media on September 24, the ministry introduced amendments to the cryptocurrency act. People who do not report cryptocurrency transactions amounting to over 1 million Russian rubles ($ 13,000) per year will be able to go behind bars for up to 3 years.

The ministry also proposed high fines for smaller, unreported amounts. Consequently, each entity in Russia would have to report its annual cryptocurrency income if its amount exceeded 100,000 rubles ($ 1,300). Failure to report such transactions, the report says, would be subject to a penalty of 30% of the total amount of digital assets held, but not less than 50,000 rubles ($ 650).

The authorities also came up with the idea that local cryptocurrency exchanges should report all cryptocurrency transactions to the tax office once a quarter. The new proposals relate to both the new Russian cryptographic law "On digital assets" and the upcoming draft law "On digital currency". In the current version of the Act on Digital Assets, neither tax rates for transactions nor general rules for their declaration have been established.

It is not clear what transactions the ministry wants to tax. The authority only recognizes a few ways to become a cryptocurrency holder. In early September, the ministry proposed a total ban on all cryptocurrency transactions. The exception is obtaining them in three ways: through inheritance, bankruptcy and enforcement proceedings.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair had retraced more than 61% of the last wave down, but was capped at the level of $10,865. There is a Pin Bar candlestick made at the top of the retracement, so now the market sends a first indication of a possible reversal and down trend continuation. Any violation of the intraday technical support seen at the level of $10,555 would be seen as down trend resumption. The first local target for bears is seen at the level of $10,430. For now the momentum remains neutral on the H4 time frame chart, but is might change soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,186
WR2 - $11,616
WR1 - $11,271

Weekly Pivot - $10,739
WS1 - $10,293
WS2 - $9,807
WS3 - $9,393


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 28 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to data from BitInfoCharts, yesterday's average Ethereum transaction fee was $ 2,248. It hit $2.28, 4 cents more on August 23, but has not fallen below $ 2,248 since August 9, when the cost of an average Ethereum transaction was $1.94.

Just ten days ago, the average cost of a single Ethereum transaction was $11.6, and on September 2, $14.6. These were the highest fees in the history of the entire network. The gas price was close to these levels in 2018 at the earliest, and was then $5.5.

Fees go up when there aren't enough miners to process your transactions. If the charges are lower, it means less network activity. One of the reasons for the high fees during these holidays was the rapid development of decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi is a series of decentralized financial products such as loan protocols, decentralized stablecoins and synthetic assets.

A lot of money has been poured into these protocols over the past few months. According to DeFi Pulse, currently about USD 11 billion is blocked in DeFi smart contracts. In June, it was only 1 billion, so the entire sector of decentralized finance grew by 1100%. The largest DeFi smart contracts are placed in the Ethereum blockchain. However, the ETH network can only process 14 transactions per second, so it is unable to keep up with demand.

Declining fees may mean that activity in the DeFi sector is also declining. Perhaps people are starting to move to other blockchains. It could also mean that people rely on second-tier solutions - software built into the Ethereum blockchain to make transactions cheaper or faster - or that DeFi smart contracts become more efficient or simply contain fewer transactions. Whatever the reason, investors are sure to enjoy lower gas prices.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/UD pair has almost hit the level of $362.93, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The recent local high was made at the level of $361.88, so it was just a little below the retracement level. Nevertheless, the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern had been made already, so the bears are now trying to stop to corrective wave up and reverse the market back to the down trend. The momentum is still strong and positive, so the bulls did not give up yet and are waiting for the opportunity to break out higher. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $369.37 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $345.40. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $446.64
WR2 - $410.95
WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99
WS1 - $319.88
WS2 -$284.46
WS3 - $256.92


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Venezuela has created the first satellite node capable of processing transactions without an internet connection. This is great news for a country with a very poorly developed internet infrastructure.

The Venezuelan "cosmic node" was created by Anibal Garrido and his team Anibal Cripto. It is based on Blockstream technology, which uses a satellite - in this case EUTELSAT-113 - to transmit data between points, without being connected to the internet. The idea came from Cryptobuyer, a Latin American start-up that focuses on cryptocurrency payments:

"We successfully installed and run a satellite Bitcoin node in Venezuela which allows us to be independent of the internet to download messages and validate transactions" they wrote on twiter.

Garrido added that he wants to expand access by implementing a series of smaller devices. All smaller satellites will create a mesh network that will be able to transmit data between different devices. The first of the three antennas has been deployed in Valencia City. The other two will be deployed in the nation's capital, Caracas and Puerto Ordaz. Cryptobuyer chose Valencia because it's an industrialized city but doesn't have many tall buildings to block the signal.

This is the first stage of an ambitious project that could help increase the utility of Bitcoin in a country with a very weak technological infrastructure. Venezuela has one of the slowest internet connections on the continent. The country is also struggling with the problem of access to electricity.

Farias believes the antenna could make it possible to pay with Bitcoin in remote areas or in the event of an internet failure. He pointed out that this is why they are trying to create a mesh network that will communicate with the Blockstream satellite:

"We are using a P2P network that uses a USB device that is already in Venezuela. We will soon be putting these devices into operation, with a range of approximately four kilometers each.

Anibal considers Venezuela a great place to realize Satoshi Nakamoto's vision.

"This project aims to show the nature of the Bitcoin protocol. Open nature, no limits and no limits. Venezuela is therefore a pioneer in Latin America and the world in the use and application of this type of technology that is not imposed by decree or force.

Despite its political and economic problems, Venezuela ranks first among all Latin countries in terms of cryptocurrency adoption.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been continuing to move higher for all the weekend and the recent local high was made at the level of $10,924. The next target for bulls is the supply zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,222. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the odds are still high and if the local technical resistance seen at the level of $10,940 is clearly violated, then the supply zone will be tested. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $10,568.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,934
WR2 - $11,451
WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558
WS1 - $10,238
WS2 -$9,737
WS3 - $9,392


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrency market recovery: what to look for when working with Bitcoin and Altcoin

The past three weeks were difficult, the market was feverish, and weak cryptocurrency assets lost more than half of their value, but everything is different now.

The fear of a market crash that was typical in the first week of September was replaced by a normalization of trading interest among most traders after Bitcoin focused on the side channel of $9,800/$11,500. This step led to the restoration of the emotional state of market participants, and this led to a general recovery of the market.

"Wintering is postponed." With this slogan, many crypto assets of the Altcoin class met a sideways move on Bitcoin. So, the acclaimed DeFi Yearn Finance in the crypto environment managed not only to recover from the collapse by 45%, but it also updated the historical maximum of $39,320 to the price level of $43,910. This step shows that YFI DeFi is still on the rise, and the crypto market is still focusing on a sufficient number of participants and trading volumes.

Without exception, all traders who work closely with crypto assets remember the bitcoin hype of 2017, when its value almost reached $20,000. So now many people are clinging to 2017, as there are parallels in the form of a new round of polarity in this area of investment. The number of cryptocurrency users worldwide has almost tripled over the past two years, from 35 million to 101 million, and analysts estimate that in the third quarter of 2020, the number of accounts on centralized bitcoin exchanges has already reached 191 million.

Antifragility in all its colors, the crypto market is constantly trying to limit, and it continues to grow, gaining widespread popularity of users, thus forcing regulators to work with it shoulder to shoulder.

Now it is difficult to say that in 2021 there will be no Bitcoin, and its value will be equal to absolute zero, the crypto market is there, and it is developing. So why not work on it in the short to medium term, where the yield is several times higher than traditional assets (Forex, Index, Stock market).


Correction or Bull Market?

This question arises for many crypto traders, and 2017 will once again be a topic for discussion. September 2017 and 2020 have a high degree of similarity, where a correction occurred literally on the same day. If you compare the stages of recovery, then there are similar features here, which in theory can give a buy signal.

YFI DeFi, coupled with cash infusions, can still give the crypto market an opportunity for further development, which will pull the cost of Bitcoin up.



Bitcoin's current development and prospects:

At this time, the optimal fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin is considered to be in the range of $9,800/$11,500, which will allow Altcoin to continue to recover. The flat process may well last for a month, but the fact that the price is held with no new lows will give more chances for a subsequent update of the highs.



General background of the crypto market:

Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, we can see that the Total market is gradually recovering and already amounts to $349 billion, which is $26 billion more than 3 weeks earlier.

Almost half of the correction has already been worked out in the Total market, and this is due to both Bitcoin and Altcoin.

Market Cap: $349,305,780,715

BTC Dominance: 57.7%



The index of emotions (aka fear and euphoria) of the crypto market is still in the anxiety phase - 43 points, but this is still quite normal. If Bitcoin continues to hold in the flat trajectory above the $10,000 level, the emotional background will quickly normalize.



Indicator analysis:

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we can see that the indicators of technical instruments relative to the four-hour and daily periods signal a purchase due to price fluctuations in the upper part of the flat. The weekly period focuses on the overall upward movement due to the purchase signal since the beginning of the year.






Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 28,.2020 - Key pivot level at the $11.000 on the test

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is strong pivot resistance level at $11,000, which is good level to watch for selling opportunities.

My advice is to focus on the selling opportunities if you see the rejection of the resistance at $11,000

Downside targets are set at the price of $10,150 and $9,900.

Stochastic looks overbought, which is another sign that buyers might be exhausted.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $11,000

Support levels: $10,150 and $9,900




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29 September 2020

Crypto Industry News:
On September 24, the Binance exchange officially announced on the Russian Telegram channel that the Russian telecommunications regulator Roskomnadzor had added this page to the register of platforms disseminating prohibited information.

According to the announcement, the Binance exchange was included in the list due to the distribution of data related to the acquisition of digital currencies such as Bitcoin. Gleb Kostarev, head of Binance's operations in Russia, said the exchange announced the news immediately after receiving the notification from Roskomnadzor.

Despite putting the domain on the list of banned websites, Russians can still access it without any additional tools like a VPN. Currently, the URL can be found in the official website registry in the blacklist of Roskomnadzor. According to the data, the site was added to the list on June 2, 2020, and access to it is "not restricted".

In a public announcement, Binance executives stressed that it had not received any information about the restriction until September 24, stating:

"Before receiving the above notification, we were not previously informed of any claims from law enforcement agencies, civil services or courts. We have now turned to our solicitors for further advice and would like to assure all our Russian users that their services will not be interrupted in the meantime and their funds are safe. "

As the Binance website was blacklisted by Roskomnadzor in June 2020, this action does not appear to be related to Binance's plans to introduce its cryptocurrency debit card in Russia as the plans were announced a little later in September 2020.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/UD pair has made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the to of the move up at the level of $367.58, just above the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at $362.93. Since then, the market has reversed and fell out of the ascending channel around the level of $355. The local low was made at the level of $350.14, but the target for bears is seen at the level of $345.40. The momentum had reversed as well and now is on the neutral level, pointing south. If the level of $345.40 is clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the level of $332.38.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $446.64
WR2 - $410.95
WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99
WS1 - $319.88
WS2 -$284.46
WS3 - $256.92


Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020