Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Central Bank of India received an order from the Supreme Court of the country in relation to his proceeding regarding a ban on conducting activities related to cryptocurrencies and ordered him to consider complaints.

During a recent session of the ongoing hearing on the activities of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on August 21, the court ruled that officials did not adequately respond to cryptocurrency industry concerns about its activities.

RBI banned banks from supporting cryptographic operators, such as stock exchanges, in July 2018 - effectively stopping such platforms from continuing to operate in India. Today there has been harsh criticism from Supreme Court judge Rohinton Wave Nariman. As Crypto Kanoon, who was present at the trial, summed up on Twitter, Nariman gave RBI just two weeks to justify his actions.

Discussing the final result of the interrogation that has already ended, Crypto Kanoon concluded:

"The case took the most unpredictable turn. Judge Nariman orders the RBI to respond to representation in an appropriate manner. I offer to postpone the case for 2 weeks, as I heard, let the answer come after the RBI has reconsidered the ban. RBI agreed "- we read.

The case arises at the same time as the Indian government is considering making cryptocurrencies illegal for all citizens. In July, a government committee recommended the Delhi movement to ban all tokens except the official digital version of the rupee. Then the expert estimated that the country, if it signed the ban, would lose a market worth about 13 billion dollars.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has moved towards the lower channel boundary located at the level of $8,700. So far the bulls are defending this level, but any breakout lower will be a clear signal that the downside momentum is accelerating. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,912 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 22nd. Thanks to the "halving", Bitcoin can rise in price up to $50,000 in 2020

Bitcoin – 4H.


As I already said, the value of Bitcoin in most cases is determined by the number of one-day investors in the crypto market. If there is a wave of bitcoin purchases, the influx of new investors who want to get a "quick profit" supports demand and value growth. There are no other cue ball growth factors now. Even the aggravation of the trade conflict between China and America is not a sufficient reason for a sharp rise of BTC, although many investors are trying to go into safe assets. However, bitcoin is quite difficult to attribute to them, and in most cases, investors still prefer gold, franc or yen. At the moment, bitcoin is getting cheaper again, but the bears failed to close under the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782).

An important issue that is now on the agenda is the so-called "halving", which will be the system in 2020. "Halving" is a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. It is logical to assume that the cost of the number one cryptocurrency will grow, however, from my point of view, not 2-5 times. The rise in price will be possible, but not as strong as many world experts in the cryptocurrency segment predict. Called numbers from $50,000 to $60,000.

The information background as such is currently missing. There are reports from China about the death of a large mining farm due to flooding. There are discussions of crypto traders regarding the possible ban of cryptocurrencies by the US authorities, of course, not in the short term. But all this has little effect on the movement of bitcoin.

The retreat of the "cue" quotes from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on some growth in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% ($10251) and 50.0% ($10642). Closing the BTC rate under the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% ($9022).

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin fell to the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9022, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a close below the level of $9558.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10251, and with a stop-loss level of $9782, if a rebound from the correction level of 76.4% is performed.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. End of the upward correction
22 August 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.000 in past few hours. There is potential for more downside and potential new wave down cause of the underlying down-trend.


Important levels to watch:

Resistance levels:
$10,000
$10,250

Support levels and downward targets
$9,722
$9,137

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found potential end of the upward correction ABC and potential for more downside. I found that BTC is trading inside of the Pitchfork down channel (yellow lines) and that there is chance for potential test of $9.722 (yellow rectangle) and $9,137. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is showing the overbought condition and potential rotation back, which is another great confirmation for downside. As long as the BTC is trading below the $10,700, watch for selling opportunities.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. End of the upward correction
22 August 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.000 in past few hours. There is potential for more downside and potential new wave down cause of the underlying down-trend.


Important levels to watch:

Resistance levels:
$10,000
$10,250

Support levels and downward targets
$9,722
$9,137

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found potential end of the upward correction ABC and potential for more downside. I found that BTC is trading inside of the Pitchfork down channel (yellow lines) and that there is chance for potential test of $9.722 (yellow rectangle) and $9,137. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is showing the overbought condition and potential rotation back, which is another great confirmation for downside. As long as the BTC is trading below the $10,700, watch for selling opportunities.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested power plant operators for mining cryptocurrency at the nuclear power plant facility in Juzhnoukrainsk.

The UNIAN English-language Ukrainian information site reported the details of the arrest. According to this article, cryptocurrency miners threatened the security of the nuclear facility through the internet connection of their mining installation - apparently leaked classified information about the power plant security system. SBU detectives obtained a search warrant and conducted an investigation. They found unauthorized computer equipment and seized a converter, fiber optic cable and partial network cable.

A similar situation occurred in February 2018, when many engineers from the Russian Federal Nuclear Center were arrested for trying to extract Bitcoins using one of the largest supercomputers in the country.

According to reports, the computer was able to perform 1000 trillion calculations per second and is intentionally disconnected from the Internet for security reasons.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has tested the short-term trendline resistance from below, around the level of $196.76. So far the test was a failure as the higher prices were neglected and the price got back to the middle of the range.. The next technical support is located at the level of $178.81 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $196.76, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $197.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.46
WR2 - $236.43
WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41
WS1 - $171.74
WS2 - $150.23
WS3 - $128.88


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The United States Treasury Department has added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Marked Citizens (SDNs) in accordance with the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act. These addresses and their associated persons were considered to be associated with foreign drug operators.

The Ministry of the Treasury updated its SDN list on August 21. The three alleged drug traffickers associated with crypto addresses are Chinese citizens Xiaobing Yan, Fujing Zheng and Guanghua Zheng. All three people have Bitcoin-related addresses listed on the SDN list, and Guanghua Zheng has an additional Litecoin address.

As explained in the White House press release, the bill outlined above aims to ban trade and transactions between drug dealers and US entities - namely companies and individuals. Under the Act, government departments coordinate the investigation into foreign drug dealers. They are then mentioned on the list, which is presented to the president. This then determines whether it is appropriate to impose sanctions by the US.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin believes Bitcoin is susceptible to money laundering. Mnuchin said he intends to closely monitor Bitcoin and believes that billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies are being used for illegal purposes.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel boundary around the level of $9,700, but is still trading inside of the narrow range and below the technical resistance at the level of $10,166. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,704 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
At least three early Facebook supporters in connection with the planned launch of stablecoin Libra is considering withdrawing from the project due to strong regulatory pressure.

Financial Media states that the two founding partners of the Facebook Libra Association talked about what their right steps should be. Another - again unnamed - supporter is allegedly concerned that their public support for Libra will result in unwanted regulatory control of their own independent companies.

The Libra Association is a newly created, independent management consortium for Libra. It has 28 founding members - including Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Uber and Spotify - each of whom was required to invest $ 10 million in the project.

"I think that partners who want to be seen as compatible [with their own regulatory bodies] will find it difficult to support Libra," one partner noted in an interview with the media.

The tension supposedly increases on both sides. One partner admitted that Facebook itself was tired of being the only one to turn his neck. Both Facebook and the Libra Association reportedly declined to comment.

The antitrust authorities of the European Commission are the last to join the regulatory rounds of Libra since the project was presented in June. Objections from regulators, governments and central bankers around the world have reached such a high level that at the end of July Facebook was asked to warn its investors that stablecoin may never be released.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $9,704 but is still trading inside the descending channel, despite the recent rally towards the upper channel boundary located at the level of $10,371. The high of this rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 26th. Mass and custom popularization of Bitcoin continues
26 August 2019

Bitcoin – 4H.


During the last week, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world has performed three rebounds from important Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 76.4%), which restrained its further fall. However, if you pay attention to the latest highs of bitcoin value ($12,261 and$ 10,895), it becomes obvious that BTC is clamped to a narrow price range. The triangle in which the "cue ball" quotes were until recently, was supposed to predict where the cryptocurrency will move in the coming weeks. The breakthrough is carried out by its upper boundary. Accordingly, growth is expected. However, I believe that not everything is so simple, and bitcoin is now more inclined to consolidation.

The World Wide Web continues to shock and amuse traders with its predictions about how much bitcoin will cost in a week/month/year. For example, the CEO of the popular cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao believes that mathematically, if a person has 1 BTC, then he is doomed to become one of the richest people on the planet. Zhao draws this conclusion based on a simple calculation, dividing 7 billion people into 21 million bitcoins. The fact that most bitcoins, like any other wealth, are concentrated in the hands of a small group of investors, does not count. The fact that about 3-4 billion people on Earth have not heard anything about bitcoin is also not taken into account. The fact that not everyone needs bitcoin is similar.

Also, the media and the Internet community are trying to popularize Bitcoin at the expense of big names of investors and financiers. For example, TV presenter Max Keiser believes that Warren Buffett can abandon his principles amid the global recession and add bitcoin to his portfolio, although he is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies. This is being done, as I have already said more than once, to popularize Bitcoin and its further growth by attracting as many investors as possible who want to get rich quick. A small group of people will remove the "cream" from the growth of bitcoin.

Also, the media often resort to openly fake news and lies. For example, recently it was widely believed in the media that any crisis, within an individual country or global, has a positive impact on bitcoin. An example was Venezuela, where inflation is one million percent per year. In theory, in Venezuela, residents should have long ago switched to any other currencies (especially since the US dollar is allowed) or cryptocurrencies. However, it is due to the inflation of Bolivar and the impression that the volume of purchases of bitcoin is growing. The amount of bolivars spent on buying bitcoins is growing.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). So I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9782 with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8% if there is a closure below the level of $10251.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $11021, and with a stop-loss level of $10642, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 50.0%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC 08.26.2019 - Broken bear flag in the downward trend, more downside yet to come
26 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart completed bear flag and I do expect more downside to come. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in world currency markets. The trade war is still active and investors are in indecision about the dollar, which indicates limited upside for BTC. Secondly, many experts, analysts of the cryptocurrency segment again begin to give their forecasts regarding the value of the "cue ball" in six months or a year. This is what makes Bitcoin the most unattractive tool to save the value of money from all existing. I think that overall Bitcoin can go lower due to no big buyers on the market and due to much more attractive markets now like a Gold market.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found bear flag below the downward slopping trendline, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,727, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Swiss Financial Market Surveillance Authority (FINMA) has issued guidelines on regulatory requirements for Blockchain payments under FINMA supervision.

The new guidelines for virtual asset service providers, published on August 26, apply to Blockchain service providers, including exchanges, portfolio providers and trading platforms.

In the preface to the FINMA guidelines, it observes compliance with the digital assets regulatory framework issued in June by the Intergovernmental Task Force on Financial Activities (FATF).

FINMA emphasizes that Blockchain sector companies cannot be exempted from the country's regulatory standards such as the Anti-Money Laundering Act (AML). This is all the more important considering what the regulator perceives as increased risk, such as money laundering and terrorist financing, when it comes to pseudonymous Blockchain mechanisms.

Blockchain service providers are therefore required to carry out Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, apply a risk-based approach to monitor their business relationships, and notify the Swiss Money Laundering Office if they detect suspicious activities on their platforms.

The regulatory body emphasizes that its provisions should be interpreted in a technologically neutral way: therefore, the requirements for providing information on customers and beneficiaries along with payment orders apply to Blockchain payments in the same way as for bank transfers. However, such information does not have to be sent in the Blockchain but can be provided using other communication channels


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone and might be developing a Triangle pattern. Currently, the market is trading between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019