Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

SEC negotiates Ethereum ETF approval and prefers altcoin over XRP token

The cryptocurrency market continues to develop actively and sets new historical highs, still led by Bitcoin and Ethereum. And if the main cryptocurrency has recently faded into the background, the market giants have tightly taken up the ETH ecosystem. For example, the Infura infrastructure platform has developed a tool that prevents excessive commission growth in the ether network. The introduction of this function will significantly increase the speed and number of transactions in the coin network. However, the representatives of Fidelity Investments made a really important step towards a new cycle of altcoin development.

It became known that recently, the CEO and representatives of the investment company held a closed meeting with representatives of the SEC. Entrepreneurs made a presentation where they revealed all the advantages of launching an ETF fund on the air in the United States. The main argument of the company was the rich infrastructure of the asset, which allows the development of related projects. According to the CEO of Fidelity, the market is ripe for the launch of the first ETF fund in America. There is no doubt that the formation of such an institution will accelerate the development of not only ETH, but also the entire market by leaps and bounds. The capitalization of the main altcoin will begin to grow rapidly, and the institutionalization of the market will accelerate significantly. An important factor that can positively influence the SEC's decision is its official position regarding altcoin.

During the trial between the SEC and Ripple, officials voiced their position regarding the ether. According to which altcoin is recognized as a commodity, since it has a rich infrastructure that has been developing for years. A more loyal attitude of the SEC to the ether can become a weighty argument in favor of making a positive decision regarding the launch of the first ETF fund in the United States. At the same time, there is a high probability that the commission will reject the application until the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is developed and approved in the United States. Meanwhile, the ETH infrastructure continues to develop, and related projects increasingly affect the quotes of the main altcoin. The influence of the second-level protocols on gas absorption has significantly increased. The thing is that slower first-level protocols consume more and more gas, while L2 solutions neutralize this problem. This indirectly increases the on-chain activity of the main ETH network, which allows the coin to become more independent and break through difficult resistance levels.



As of 13:00 UTC, the coin showed the largest gain from the top 10, having risen in price by 6%. The asset has successfully passed two difficult sales zones at $3,400 and $3,500 and continues to move up. Now the coin is quoted at $3,600, where it has met increased resistance and is consolidating. The cryptocurrency has been continuing its upward movement since September 13 and is approaching an important resistance zone at $3,700. On the four-hour chart, the currency is confidently moving up, despite a possible sideways stochastic. A correction will likely begin soon, as buyers failed to develop a bullish momentum after the purchase of the volumes offered by the bears.



The situation is even more pronounced on the daily chart. A bullish signal is given by the MACD, which continues the upward movement, as well as a stochastic confirming the strength of buyers. At the same time, the RSI is approaching the 60 mark and gradually reverses along the safe level. Everything points to a local consolidation, after which the coin will continue its upward movement to $4,000. The nearest resistance levels are concentrated at $3,750 and $3,900.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Institutional interest rises, 70% of major players to increase positions

Bitcoin rallies cautiously, climbing to the upper border of the zone 47,124.39 - 48,178.13 between the blue and red dotted lines. Consolidation above this zone will open the way for BTC/USD to the level of $50,000 per coin, and after that to $52,000.

Meanwhile, global demand from institutional investors is growing. According to a recent report by Fidelity, more than 50% of the surveyed institutions have already invested in digital assets in one form or another.

The study, which surveyed 1,100 institutional investors in the US, Europe, and Asia, found that Asia and Europe have higher investment rates than the US. And over 70% of all surveyed investors in Asia have already started delving into digital assets.

Among cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in the greatest demand among institutions, while Litecoin and Binance Coin get less interest. However, this study showed that a very small number of investors directly hold these assets in their portfolios. Most of them prefer investment products to direct purchases of digital assets.

The reason for this is probably the difficulty in storing spot coins. In addition, not all institutions can directly invest in cryptocurrencies. However, the approval of crypto ETFs in the US is likely to spark institutional interest and become a strong driver for market growth.

Meanwhile, 71% of those surveyed in the US and Europe plan to buy cryptocurrencies in the future. And 70% of all respondents reported a neutral or positive perception of digital assets.

Why is institutional interest growing? What prompts large market players to buy cryptocurrency and can this trend continue?

According to a Fidelity survey, the most attractive attribute of digital assets is their growth potential. Considering BTC is seeing a 303% rise in ROI in 2020, this makes sense. The second factor is "playing with innovative technologies" - 39% of all respondents said that this factor is important for them.

And finally, the lack of correlation with other assets played a certain role, increasing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies. This factor is especially important for the US and Europe during a period of low interest rates and extensive monetary stimulus, making fiat currencies unprofitable for their profitability.

Therefore, Cathie Wood's claims that institutional interest will allow bitcoin to grow tenfold in five years is not without foundation. And now, locally, Bitcoin seems to have every chance of recovering losses on the September 7 crash. Judging by the technical picture, the bearish flag is gradually losing its relevance, and its formidable prediction may not come true.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 16,.2021 - Bearish divergences in the background

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $48,000. I see potential for the downside movement towards $47,400 and $46,830


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $47,400 and $46,830

Stochastic oscillator is showing bearish divergence in the background and potential for further downside.

Resistance is set at $48,700





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Will Bitcoin continue its upward movement above $50,000?

In our previous posts when Bitcoin was trading around and below $45,000 we mentioned that a bounce towards $49,000 was imminent as price confirmed several times the support at $43,000 and respected it. Yesterday we saw Bitcoin price reach $48,430 area very close to our target. I now start to see that the risk reward ration does not favor bulls.



Red lines- bullish divergence

Green lines- Fibonacci retracements

Green rectangle -bounce target area

Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues making higher highs and higher lows. Price could continue higher towards the green rectangle at $49,000. However bulls need to be very cautious as the $49,000-$50,000 price range is a very important resistance. I expect price to turn lower from this area and most probably break below $43,000 towards $35,000-$30,000. For now there is no reversal confirmation, however I believe it should be expected soon.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ray Dalio: Bitcoin is a good alternative to cash



Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said that if Bitcoin goes mainstream and succeeds, regulators will get rid of it or try to do it. He said this at the SALT conference on Wednesday in New York.

Dalio's comments came a day after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler told US lawmakers that there are gaps in the supervision of cryptocurrency regulation.

Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee, Gensler emphasized the SEC's goal of protecting investors and pointed to new problems arising from new technologies.

Gensler noted that there is currently not enough protection for investors in the field of crypto-financing, lending, and trade.

In regard to regulatory gaps, he said that there is clarity about what securities are, but there are gaps when it comes to coordination with banking agencies regarding stable coins and coordination with other agencies, including the CFTC, when it comes to regulating tokens and trading platforms.

On another note, Dalio believes that Bitcoin is a good alternative to cash, but he has more gold than bitcoins. He said that from the point of view of history, there are many things that have absolutely no intrinsic value but are perceived as value. He added that bitcoin is an opportunity, which let us assume that he has a certain amount of money in Bitcoins.

Bitcoin is worth considering all alternatives to cash as well as all alternatives to other financial assets.

After shortly declining below $ 30,000 in July, the main cryptocurrency seems to have found its lower limit above this level and is trading at $ 48,123 today, that is, 66.3% since this year began.







Irina Yanina
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for September 16, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin had pushed through $48,500 mark early in the session before turning lower again. The crypto has slipped below $48,000 mark at the time of writing and has reversed as discussed earlier. Probability remains for a drag lower towards $35,000-37,000 zone if prices stay below $53,000 mark going forward. Traders might want to position themselves accordingly.

Bitcoin has reached the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent drop between $52,700 and $42,900 levels respectively and a bearish turn can be expected against $52,700 mark. If correct, the next leg could be sharply lower towards $35,000-37,000 zone or even lower. The crypto is trading just below $48,000 mark and is facing immediate resistance at $52,700 level.

A drop below $45,000 will confirm that Bitcoin has carved a meaningful lower top and is heading lower toward $35,000 mark. Only a push above $53,000 will nullify the above bearish structure.


Trading plan:
Potential drop toward $35,000-37,000 against $53,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

SEC gives extensive overview of crypto market regulation



Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler gave an extensive overview of crypto market regulation during the recent Senate hearing. When asked by Republican Senator Patrick Toomey whether stablecoins qualify as securities, he replied that "they may well be securities." A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that is usually pegged to a dollar or other currency. Later on, Gensler confirmed the opinion that cryptocurrency "staking" and lending services are likely to fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC.

"If you offer a loan product, it is likely that the loan product itself is in compliance with the securities laws," Gensler said.

The struggle on crypto lending has implications for exchanges and decentralized trading platforms. Coinbase, in particular, seems to be at odds with Gensler on several issues.

For example, on Tuesday, Gensler said Coinbase is not listed as a stock exchange, even though "they have dozens of tokens that could be securities."

As such, the SEC said it may try to block Coinbase due to its plans to launch a lending platform starting with the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC). Earlier, Coinbase received a "Wells notice" from the SEC, which is an official warning from the government that it intends to sue the company over the planned lending platform. Coinbase aims to offer a 4% return to investors who lend their coins in US dollars. It now says it is delaying the launch of the platform until October and said it "welcomes additional regulatory clarity."

The new rules may significantly complicate the process of accepting trading losses on cryptocurrencies. For example, if an investor bought Bitcoin (BTC) for $ 10,000 and sold it at a loss, he would have to wait 30 days to buy it again to be eligible for a tax write-off. Investors may still be able to buy other cryptocurrencies without breaking the rules, provided that the IRS does not consider them "nearly identical".

The rules will take effect after the 2021 tax year, according to the plan of Congressman Richard Neal.

Surprisingly, Bitcoin still traded higher on Wednesday, climbing 3% to $ 48,200. Ethereum, meanwhile, rose 3.6% to $ 3,500, while Cardano (ADA) was up 7.5% to $ 2.57. It seems that crypto markets are in no hurry with tax and regulatory changes yet.

Crypto stocks also rallied, with Coinbase surging 2% to $ 248. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) also gained 4.5% to $ 38.50.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 16, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
The latest data suggests that Bitcoin has used more energy this year than in the whole of 2020.

Accurate data on energy consumption is variable and not easy to calculate accurately, but the trend is clearly increasing. The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index currently estimates that Bitcoin is expected to use up to 95.68 TWh by the end of the year. This is about the same as the energy consumption in the Philippines or Pakistan.

A study by Science Direct highlighted another problem - electronic waste. E-waste generally refers to waste computer equipment and electronics. The report suggests that one transaction on the Bitcoin network produces 272 grams of e-waste, mostly old mining equipment.

BTC miners "are struggling with an increasing amount of short-lived equipment that could exacerbate the growth of global electronic waste." E-waste production was 30.7 kilotons in May 2021.

The study concluded that Bitcoin can produce up to 64.4 kilotons of e-waste at the peak BTC price levels observed in early 2021.

According to Statista, Bitcoin accounts for about 0.11% of the estimated global e-waste in 2021, or 57.4 million metric tons.

In the scale of total global electricity consumption, Bitcoin mining is only 0.43%. This is less than the estimated 104 TWh used by refrigerators in the United States alone, according to the University of Cambridge.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $48,068 and made a new local high at the level of $48,465 (at the time of writing the article). Moreover, to 50% Fibonacci retracement level has been violated as well. The support is located at the level of $47,290. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $49,162 (61% Fibonacci retracement) and $49,316 (technical resistance). The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook despite the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $59,391
WR2 - $56,198
WR1 - $49,661

Weekly Pivot - $46,351
WS1 - $40,043
WS2 - $36,782
WS3 - $30,164


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 16, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
Senator Elizabeth Warren once again criticizes cryptocurrencies. This time, it is about high transaction fees, which she believes may pose a threat to less wealthy people.

However, it did not end with high fees (to which Ethereum users are the most exposed) and the senator also criticized the interruption in the operation of exchanges that occur when the market is experiencing high price volatility.

In a hearing of the Senate's Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, Senator Elizabeth Warren accused the cryptocurrency industry of failing to deliver solutions that are essential to financial integration in the US.

She argued her position, among other things, with ... declines in the prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). According to the senator, during the recent drops in the rates of most cryptocurrencies, 400 billion dollars has disappeared from the market.

The senator added that popular exchanges did not ensure that users were guaranteed the ability to make transactions, which caused many of them to complain about problems with the operation of the platform. At the same time, according to Senator Warren, investing in DeFi projects is risky, as many of them are not registered with the SEC.

It was also hit by high fees on Ethereum, but this is what many cryptocurrency supporters will certainly agree with. As an example, Elizabeth Warren used to swap one cryptocurrency for another, which at one point required a fee of over $ 500.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the supply zone located between the levels of $3,552 - $3,596 and made a new local high at the level of $3,675. The supply zone will now act as a technical support for the price, together with the level of $3,489. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,706 and $3,880. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook despite the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,704
WR2 - $4,312
WR1 - $3,783

Weekly Pivot - $3,411
WS1 - $2,806
WS2 - $2,445
WS3 - $1,829


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ray Dalio: Bitcoin's future is entirely in the hands of the governments



Bitcoin continued its growth after declining to the level of $ 43,852. At the moment, its quotes have risen to $ 48,000. This means that there was a consolidation above the level of $ 46,600. Previously, it was mentioned that it is necessary to return to buying bitcoin no earlier than consolidating above the level of $ 46,600. In this case, a buy signal was formed. Moreover, the price may consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour timeframe in the next few hours, which will only strengthen the signal to buy. Thus, despite the lack of an appropriate fundamental background, Bitcoin still finds reasons to increase.

Meanwhile, hedge fund founder Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has named a condition under which governments can destroy Bitcoin. Dalio said that regulators will destroy Bitcoin if it becomes overly successful and popular. He also thinks that most market participants understand: "If bitcoin continues to conquer the world, then governments will want to take it completely under their control sooner or later." The founder emphasized that they will be able to do it, since they have all the necessary capabilities. Also earlier, the investor stated that digital currencies will not be able to conquer the world, since they will be controlled by central banks. It can be recalled that one of the main advantages of cryptocurrencies is decentralization.

The next news appeared immediately after we processed this, which just confirms Ray Dalio's hypothesis. Senator Elizabeth Warren held a meeting with the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, during which she said that the latest collapse of the cryptocurrency market indicates the need to regulate the entire industry. "$ 400 billion disappeared in just a couple of hours," the senator said. She also drew attention to the fact that many exchanges were unavailable during the collapse and after it. Warren cited the example of a hypothetical investor who entered the market just before the collapse, but even after the collapse ended, he could not withdraw the remaining funds due to interruptions in the work of the exchanges. The head of the SEC agreed with the senator, saying that at this time, cryptocurrency exchanges are not regulated by federal law and many investors are not protected.

In this case, what was talked about a year ago is slowly beginning to turn into reality. China has already tightened the legislation on cryptocurrencies and expelled all miners from the country. In the States, they are going to introduce tax legislation on cryptocurrencies in the near future. In addition, many central banks of the world are developing their own digital currencies, and are also going to fight with the world-exciting cryptocurrencies. Thus, we can only expect actions aimed at tightening the regulation of the cryptocurrency market and other digital assets from central banks and governments in the future. This does not mean that bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies will disappear, but the stronger the pressure from regulators, the less popular the cryptocurrencies will be.



There is a clear downward trend on the H4 timeframe, but the price may consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud in the near future, which will open up excellent growth prospects for it to the level of $ 51,350. It should be recognized that the bears once again showed themselves on the weak side and could not break through the important level of $ 43,852. Thus, it is possible that growth will resume, and sales should not be considered until the price consolidates below the level of $ 43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021