Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 13th. India is preparing for a complete ban on cryptocurrencies at the legislative level

Bitcoin – 4H.


As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin performed a fall to the correction level of 23.6% ($11094) and a double retreat from it. As a result, on August 12, the new growth of bitcoin quotations in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% ($11544) began. From the main news of the last days, I would note the complete ban on the issue, turnover, and payments using cryptocurrencies, which is being prepared in the Indian Parliament. Previously, the Central Bank struggled with cryptocurrencies by prohibiting commercial banks from opening accounts for the use of cryptocurrencies and any individuals and legal entities that use them. Now, cryptocurrencies can be banned completely.

Meanwhile, debates continue among BTC analysts, experts, and investors about whether the US government can completely ban bitcoin? Opinions differ, as usual. Some experts believe that it was possible to ban bitcoin a few years ago when it was not so popular. Now, there is evidence that the "elite" are starting to use bitcoin, and cryptocurrency is also starting to be used as a means of preserving value, it is completely impossible to ban it. However, it is possible that the Fed will want to establish control over the cryptocurrency segment, and the Ministry of Finance is already taxing any transactions with bitcoin since it is considered an asset, not money. The second cornerstone issue, causing much controversy, is the future of BTC. Here, again, opinions differ. Starting from the forecasts that bitcoin will cost $250,000, ending with the fact that the cryptocurrency will go into the shadows. Although most of the forecasts predict "cue" further growth. It is also noted that the correlation of bitcoin with any of the currencies has recently weakened. First of all, it concerns the US dollar. This is due to the fact that bitcoin is increasingly becoming independent. Previously, there was a very strong correlation with the yuan and the dollar, now it is getting weaker every day. Moreover, some experts are beginning to call Bitcoin a more interesting investment tool than, for example, gold. They explain this by the fact that gold will continue to be mined, but the number of bitcoin coins is still limited.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has made a return to the Fibo level of 50.0%. Thus, I recommend buying a cryptocurrency with the target of $11544 and $12142, with the stop-loss order under the level of 50.0%, since the rebound from the level of $11057 was performed. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $10585, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $11057, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 50.0%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Down break of the 5-day consolidation
13 August 2019

Industry news:
Blockchain interoperability network ICON has announced a token giveaway in the run-up to its eagerly anticipated community elections. 3 million ICX tokens (about ~$600,000 USD) will be disbursed to members of the ICON community throughout the pre-voting period, which commences on August 26.

Daily view:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum on the MACD and Stochastic oscillator, which is sign of the underlying bearish pressure. I also found failed test of the resistance at the price of $12.350, which is good confirmation of the weak buying.


Trading recommendation:
According to current condition, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward targets at the price of $10.620 and $9.40,



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The famous American boxer Mike Tyson leads a new entertainment platform powered by Blockchain for a new generation of players.

On August 13, VentureBeat announced that the new venture - called "Fight to Fame" - will use Blockchain technology to support a new, multi-faceted platform that aims to launch aspiring players to success via social media, reality TV, film, games, and live matches establishments.

While Tyson will be the founder and chairman of the Fight to Fame sports and competition committee, the project also counts Farzam Kamalabadi as his CEO, two-time Emmy Award winner Tim Smithe, and Stan Larimer as an expert on cryptocurrency and Blockchain.

"As an experienced player, I want to mentor future generations, especially future action stars, and ensure that there is a path to professional success and fair compensation. Building a global platform for them is my passion" - says Tyson.

To increase engagement and to benefit from the project for both competitors, fans and the company, the economy of fan tokens will be launched.

Kamalbadi and Smithe have noticed that for industry titans like the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), players often leave with only 15% after charging all fees.

More details about the planned ICO Fight to Fame will be provided in the future; tokens apparently grant plant and voting rights to holders and form part of the Blockchain-based economy transparent to the entire ecosystem.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
According to a report published today, the United Nations is investigating 35 cyberattacks by North Korea in 17 countries. This information follows the leaked summary of the report last week, stating that the country has hacked $ 2 billion to finance armament programs so far. Most of the incidents studied were carried out using one of the three main attack vectors.

South Korea is by far the favorite target, falling victim to the 10 attacks listed in the report, India is in second place - there were three attacks there. The incidents to be investigated took place in the countries of Africa, Central and South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Some of the most daring hacks concerned the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system. In one case, the group recruited a Chilean interbank employee through LinkedIn. Another hack installed malware in an ATM system across the country, resulting in 10,000 fraudulent cash withdrawals in 20 countries.

Cryptocurrency exchanges and users are also popular target vectors. The South Korean Stock Exchange, Bithumb has been attacked at least four times. After the 2018 attack on the unnamed stock exchange, the stolen funds "were transferred through at least 5,000 separate transactions and forwarded to many countries before the final conversion."

The last method of raising funds is mining cryptocurrencies, often through crypto-jacking. This includes installing malware on the computer, which then uses system resources to mine cryptocurrency on behalf of the attacker. The UN has analyzed one part of malware designed for mining-oriented privacy Monero altcoin and sending influence to servers at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang.


Technical Market Overview:
The local technical support at the level of $11,027 at the BTC/USD pair has been violated as the price made another lower low at the level of $10,413. This means the Bullish Flag pattern has been made just bigger as the wave (c) of the wave 2 is getting extended towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,277. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 14th. The cost of bitcoin is 80% dependent on speculators

Bitcoin – 4H.


What kind of confidence is in the tool, which for no reason grows from $3,000 to $14,000 in a matter of months? That's right, nothing. Bitcoin remains a tool that is used to extract the largest possible profit in a minimum period, as well as a tool for illegal anonymous transactions. It is for this purpose that bitcoin exists, and after it, a huge number of other cryptocurrencies were created. The information that more investors are resorting to the function of preserving the value through the "cue" is true but is misinterpreted. Most likely, a certain part of investors is just waiting for bitcoin to take off again to $20,000 to earn on this again. When oil reached the range of $120 – 150 per barrel several times, most of the experts and analysts talked about the "bubble". They say that speculators inflated the price of energy carrier number 1 in the world, after which there were inevitable collapses. But here we are talking about energy, which is used by the whole world, which is used in any production and therefore has a value. Despite the emergence of alternative energy sources, it is not yet possible to replace oil completely with them. But without bitcoin, the world can safely live as it lived some 10 years ago. Cryptocurrency has no value. Therefore, almost any strong growth of the cryptocurrency is caused by the influx of one-day investors who listen to the forecasts of the guru of the cryptocurrency market or crypto-millionaires about the growth of bitcoin to $50,000 - $250,000, and promptly buy it, which leads to an increase in value. There are no fundamental reasons behind these takeoffs. Yesterday, bitcoin fell to $10,500 per coin and may continue to fall, as one-day investors began to leave the crypto market, as evidenced by the decline in trading volumes.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the level of 38.2%. So I recommend selling cryptocurrency with the target of $9980 and $9558 with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%. I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $11057, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $10585, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 38.2%.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. New momentum down and possible more downside
14 August 2019

Industry news:
Over the past years, many bodies have published data on massive wealth concentration in an otherwise decentralized Bitcoin network. Some of these reports have identified that less than five percent of all bitcoins addresses hold about 95 percent of all bitcoins. Research published in 2017 by How Much showed that 1 percent of those addresses had control over half of the bitcoin market.

Joining the ranks of those studies is TruStory, a platform for users to research and validate people's claims online. The startup's Founder and CEO Preethi Kasireddy on Tuesday shared new statistics about bitcoin's so-called wealth disparity problems. She noted that now 2 percent of addresses control 80 percent of the cryptocurrency's supply.


Daily analysis:

My first yesterday's target at the price of $10.620 has been reached. Anyway, there is a still chance for mode downside and potential test of my secondtarget at the price of $9.400. The downward started after the breakout of the 5-day balance in the background and the breakout is still active for at least few days.

Important levels to watch:

Yellow rectangle – Support $10.600

Yellow rectangle – Support 2 ($9.410)

Green middle of the Bollinger --Sell zone on the rally ($11.000-$11.150)


4H time-frame analysis:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum down on the MACD oscillator, which is sign of the new money selling. Anyway, the stochastic oscillator is showing temporal oversold condition and that is why the best idea in my opinion is to wait for rally and sell after the potential bullish correction. Level around $11.000 seems like a good zone to sell.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Samsung's South Korean technology conglomerate has quietly added Bitcoin support to its decentralized app store, Blockchain Keystore.

According to updated information on the Samsung Developers site, Keystore now supports Bitcoin, as well as Klaytn, a cryptocurrency released by Korean Internet giant Cocoa.

As noted on the site, Samsung's Blockchain Keystore is supported by six of its devices - Galaxy S10e, S10, S10 +, S10 5G, Note10 and Note10 + - and in six jurisdictions: Canada, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain.

Keystore was first released in July this year as part of the Blockchain package and the Samsung Decentralized Application (DApp) Software Development Kit (SDK) that provides account management as well as backup, payment and digital signature. It is noteworthy that at first Keystore only supported Ethereum Blockchain.

Earlier this month, Samsung expanded the SDK with two new services - DApp with digital analytics called "Jupiter" and a peer-to-peer wallet based on the QR code called "Mars" and integrated them with Galaxy S10 and newer versions of Samsung smartphones.

In parallel to Samsung, the Taiwanese consumer electronics giant HTC also introduced a smartphone with Blockchain technology, called "Exodus", which was introduced in autumn 2018.


Technical Market Overview:
The Bullish Flag pattern on the BTC/USD pair at the H4 timeframe has been invalidated as the price broken through the level of $10,000. The Bitcoin sell-off is accelerating and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,9231. Any violation of the level of $9,049 will invalidate the impulsive scenario. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,166.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
An online survey by ING banking giant shows that Austrians are most skeptical of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. A survey in which respondents from 15 countries show that the positive attitude towards Bitcoin is also weakening in other countries.

Austrians are generally conservative in terms of investment, but they are very skeptical about cryptocurrencies, and only 13% see digital currencies in a positive light.

Attitudes towards cryptocurrencies have deteriorated since last year's survey. This year, 17% of Austrians believe that cryptocurrency is the future of digital payments, compared to 20% last year. And now only 14% believe that this is a significant form of investment, unlike 17% last year.

Only 5% of Austrians would consider paying wages in Bitcoins. According to the study, Austrians know more than most nations about cryptocurrencies, but prefer to avoid risk and volatility as much as possible.

Of the 13 European nations (and Australia and the United States), most have seen a decline in their positive attitude towards crypto compared to last year. Turkey, Poland, and Romania were exceptions. 43% and 44% of respondents from Poland and Romania issued positive opinions about cryptocurrencies. In contrast, in Turkey, 62% are positive about crypto, and 36% will be happy to receive payment in Bitcoins.

However, Austrians see the value of Blockchain technology. Graz, an energy trading company, plans to use the DLT-based platform in the pursuit of zero-emission energy distribution.


Technical Market Overview:
The Elliott wave scenario at the ETH/USD pair has been updated as the last one had been invalidated due to the wave overlap. Currently, the top at the level of $238.68 is the wave XX high and the recent decline is the wave Z of the correction in progress. The target for the wave C might have been reached (1:1 market geometry principle), but if the momentum will keep strong, then the decline might deepen towards the level of $149.33. Please keep in mind, that there is a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator at the daily time frame chart.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 15th. The collapse of bitcoin is caused by a massive outflow of one-day investors

Bitcoin – 4H.


Just yesterday, I wrote in my article about bitcoin that 80% of the price of the coin depends on the inflow or outflow of one-day investors, and not on fundamental factors, the actions of Donald Trump, the Fed, and the introduction of legislation relating to the cryptocurrency sphere. Today, we can state the fact: for about a week, bitcoin lost about $2,600 in value. This fact once again raises the question: how can bitcoin be used for the function of preserving value if it can lose about 20% of this value in a week? Therefore, I continue to hold the opinion that bitcoin is too overrated. Further, if you look at a large chart (for example, monthly), you can see that the first top of the "cue ball" was around $19500, the second – about $13500. I believe that there is a process of consolidation of the coin value of the most famous cryptocurrency. That is, there is a process of averaging the value, its reduction to market and fair. It is obvious that more or less of the average value of one coin is in the area of $7000 and $8000. However, "swings" can send BTC well below these levels. At the same time, I want to note once again that most of the "fantastic" forecasts (about the growth of bitcoin to $ 50,000 or even up to $ 250,000) have no basis, but are only the opinion of the author of the forecast, who is often a large investor and is interested in such forecasts, against which small investors want to earn, buy bitcoin and it shows growth. Thus, I believe that the current fall of the "cue ball" is not worth Trump's decision to postpone the introduction of duties on imports from China in the amount of 300 billion, there is no policy of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, the fall of the yuan and other fundamental factors. It's just that bitcoin is starting to lose popularity and fewer traders are considering it as a tool for quick and large earnings.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the level of 76.4% ($9782). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9022, with the stop-loss order above the level of 76.4%. I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $9782, and with a stop-loss order at the level of $9022, if a rebound from the correction level of 100.0% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The CEO of Bitwise Asset Management says he still believes that US regulators will approve cryptographic ETFs. Hunter Horsley spoke during a television interview with Bitwise research director Matt Hougan.

Bitwise submitted its last ETF application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January this year. This week, the regulator postponed the decision on the application - along with two other cryptographic ETF proposals - with the deadline for issuing the decision set for October 13.

Despite these changes, Horsley remained positive, noting that the SEC was relatively open to the reasons for this delay and presented the nature of its concerns.

Although Bitwise has made many attempts at various ETF applications, it has noticed that great progress has been made over the past twelve months. Horsley's perspective was repeated by Hougan, who summarized significant recent developments in the cryptographic sector, such as the entry of the trading company Susquehanna, improved arbitration and new spreads.

He also noted that cryptocurrency trust companies now have access to extensive insurance policies from Llyod's of London and that the market is maturing more widely. He claimed that a large part of SEC's concerns was resolved:

A key aspect of Bitcoin ETFs in the US is that they unlock the financial advisor market. Until now, crypto has focused mainly on retail or institutional investors. Half of the money in the United States is managed by financial advisers, and it is currently very difficult for them to gain access to this market.


Technical Market Overview:
The bounce at the BTC/USD market did not last long as the bulls have only managed to hit the level of $10 383. This level is just slightly above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down, so the bounce was weak. The price has reversed again and now is heading back towards the technical support at the level of $9.415.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019