Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin whales activated dormant accounts

Greetings crypto enthusiasts!

In this article, we will analyze the term "Bitcoin whale" and consider how it affects the emotional and material part of the market.

The term "Bitcoin whale" itself refers to an individual or legal entity, it has more than 10 thousand Bitcoins on its account, and its volume can affect the price rate. According to Bloomberg research, almost 60% of the total BTC volume is controlled by less than 1% of wallets.

Who are Bitcoin Whales? It's a mystery for us, but it's worth remembering that in the past you could buy pizza for 10,000 BTC, which the famous Laszlo Heinitz did in 2010. Thus, crypto enthusiasts in the construction of the Bitcoin system could put together a considerable part of the digital asset, which is now the foundation of the entire structure, where these very whales, which control the rate of the first cryptocurrency, are at the head.

Tracking whale transactions is carried out by monitoring BTC wallets, for example, Bitinfocharts provides a list of the 100 most impressive crypto accounts in terms of size. Without proper dexterity, you can get confused in the movement of capital, but programmed bots will come to the rescue, which can separate exchange accounts from whales. Such a bot can be easily found both on Telegram and on Twitter, which will greatly simplify the analysis.

Why is capital flow analyzed? The answer lies in the fact that whale wallets, which for a long time stood motionless in one place, with subsequent movement signal upcoming changes in the market itself. That is, the market, or rather the BTC rate can change the beat that followed earlier. At the same time, the flow of capital may mean the entry of institutional investors into the market.

One of the last manipulations with a large volume of BTC occurred not so long ago. On June 27, the bot recorded a span of 101,857 BTC ($ 943 million), the transaction was split into two previously unknown wallets. The bot recorded another operation on July 6, which span to 16,662 BTC ($ 154 million), and the transaction was also broken down at anonymous addresses.

This happens while Bitcoin has been standing in the side corridor of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000 for more than two months, which could theoretically signal an early cardinal change in market ticks.

Before moving on to thorough market analysis, we focus on the two whale transactions described above. So, a huge amount of capital was taxed with a minimum transfer fee of 101,857 BTC (commission $ 0.49), and 16,662 BTC (commission $ 0.73), which once again confirms how economical transfers are in the Bitcoin network compared to the traditional banking system.



Current development and prospects
As early as 70 days in a row, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency invariably follow in the range of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000, showing an average daily activity in the region of $ 400. Such activity signals a peculiar stage of accumulation, inside of which there are definitely large players who control this process. Based on the fact that no one can always stand in one place, such a protracted flat will soon lead to impulsive activity. Such a "boom" of activity can come at any moment in time, and we should be prepared for it. As we have previously identified levels of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500, in the area of which there are concentrated clusters of stop orders [StopLoss], touching them, an avalanche-like reaction can occur that will provoke a breakdown of the set boundaries.

Based on the above information, the best trading tactic will be to work on the basis of local operations, which will be set outside the range of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500 in the form of pending orders or with market entry with proper consolidation outside the specified coordinates.



The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, you can see that the trading volumes following the BTC rate move in a conditional side channel, where the current hour Total market is $ 272 billion.



If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then it can be seen that the amplitude limits are $ 245 and $ 284 billion. The maximum of the current year is $ 307 billion, the subsequent resistance is in the region of the maximum of 2019 $ 362 billion. Regarding the support levels, here it is worth taking into account the numbers: $ 245 billion, $ 234 billion and $ 132 billion

The cryptocurrency market index of emotions (aka fear and euphoria) is 44 points. It is worth considering that the mood indicator is stably above the level of 40 points, which indicates the stabilization of the emotional background of the market. Abrupt changes in the index plan will occur at the moment when the BTC price breaks the main borders of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500.



Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it can be seen that relative to four-hour and daily periods there is a variable buy and sell signal due to BTC price fluctuations within the flat formation of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000. A weekly period, as before, signals a buy due to the rapid recovery process.







Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 09 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Torus, a Singapore-based cryptographic key management platform, now allows users to send cryptocurrencies via social media platforms such as Twitter.

According to the latest Torus update, v1.7.2, users can now send tokens to any Twitter or GitHub account, even if the account has never used a Torus cryptographic wallet, the company said. Torus presented several transactions on Twitter, including 0.01 ETH transfers to major characters from the cryptocurrency space, such as co-founder Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, CEO Binance Changpeng Zhao and Elon Musk.

According to the announcement, the new update introduces six new login credentials for the Torus and DirectAuth wallet - a tool that allows users to manage application-specific private keys while storing them in a distributed Torus network. With the upgrade, users can now create a new Ethereum Blockchain wallet using any of their social identities, including Google, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Discord, AppleID, Github, LinkedIn, Twitter and Line.

The company has developed that logging to Torus using accounts such as Twitter is based on Auth0, a login service provider that integrates authentication and authorization for web, mobile and legacy applications. Auth0 acts as a proxy server that connects Torus accounts to a verifier such as Twitter or Apple.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the pull-back towards the level of $233.88, the ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $248.20, just below the supply zone located between the levels of $248.86 - $252.03. Please notice, there is another Pin Bar candle made at the top of the recent rally as well, together with more serious candlestick pattern of Shooting Star, so traders should expect as some kind of pull-back towards the levels of $235.42 and $232.20 (will now act as a local technical support for the price). The momentum is still strong and positive and supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 09 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Bolivarian National Guard in Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela, seized 315 Bitcoin mining machines manufactured by Bitmain. The owners of mining platforms were told that they did not have the necessary permits to own and operate machinery. They were also not authorized to transport machines during the COVID-19 quarantine.

Under current regulations, Venezuelan citizens who are interested in mining operations related to cryptocurrencies must obtain appropriate permits from a government office called the National Crypto Surveillance Authority. Owners who do not obtain these permits face fines and seizure of equipment.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave down and is currently trading around the level of $9,375. The local high was made at the level of $9,430 and it is a third consequtive higher high during the rally. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,530. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,240 and $9,154. Only a sustained breakout below the level of $9,154 would put the bears back into control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 09,.2020 - Breakout of multi-day balance to the upside. Watch for buying opportunities with the target at $9.600

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading upwards at the price of $9,390. I see further upward movement due to the breakout of the trading range in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips. The upward targets are set at the price of $9,600 and $9,670




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 10 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Paul Grewal, a former American judge in California and deputy general legal adviser on Facebook, joins the legal team of the Coinbase Stock Exchange.

In a published statement on the Coinbase blog, the crypto exchange said that Grewal would help "pave the way to the next stage of awareness and the adoption of cryptocurrencies." The new legal director will also lead the legal team while Coinbase cooperates with financial services regulators and develops and releases new products and services.

According to Coinbase, Grewal oversaw more than a thousand cases in five years of work as a judge and "played a significant role" in Apple v. Samsung and Oracle v. Google, two key legal technology issues.

Coinbase's announcement comes two months after his former general attorney, Brian P. Brooks, left the stock exchange after two years. He is currently the head of the US currency control office, an office in the Treasury Department.

It is unclear whether the decision to choose Grewal was influenced by a recent class action lawsuit against Plaid "data plumber" Coinbase, which was filed after Brooks's departure. The plaintiffs claim that Plaid has violated privacy and data protection by collecting and generating revenue from the financial transactions of millions of users.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up and is currently trading around the level of $9,082. The local high was made at the level of $9,430, but since then the momentum turned negative and the bears are now in control of the market. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,143 has been violated already, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,000. Only a sustained breakout below the level of $9,290 would put the bulls back into control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 10 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Speaking at the Unitize blockchain conference, Douglas Arner, director of the Asian Institute of International Financial Law at the University of Hong Kong, argued that interrelationships between various global economic systems would become "one of the biggest challenges - and one of the greatest opportunities" because more and more countries around the world , is involved in creating own CBDC projects.

According to Arner, the Chinese financial system already has some predisposition to cross-border adaptation of the fast approaching digital Yuan. The expert gave an example of SWAP transactions that have been introduced by China over the past few years in cooperation with dozens of countries around the world.

"If we think about the Chinese CBDC proposal at the moment, it is largely limited to operating in the context of physical and electronic boundaries. But you can imagine how in the context of these electronic boundaries, if the system integrates with, for example, SWAP transactions that are carried out in many different countries, this type of RMB electronic area can be extended externally. "

The United States, the EU and China will have the greatest impact

In addition, Arner listed three financial institutions that appear to have the biggest advantage in the struggling CBDC race. These include Fed Reserve, People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank, which he described as "the main central banks that issue currency"

"These are different animals than all others. What Canada, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia and Saudi Arabia can do is really interesting and nice, but the rest of the world potentially won't accept it in the context of large economic or financial transactions. "

Arnern stated that:

"There is definitely an element of potential geopolitics - not necessarily competition, but potential alternatives or even fragmentation in the future."

A few days ago, we wrote about the head of Visa - Cuyu Sheffield, who believes that the central bank's digital currencies, i.e.CBDC, may be one of the most important trends in the coming decade.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the Shooting Star candlestick pattern had been made at the level of $248.20, the ETH/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave up. The bulls are trying to bounce from the level of $235.13, but so far they can not break through the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of $238.68. Any extension to the downside will directly expose the level of $232.02 for a test and any violation of this level will likely confirm the short-term top on the Ethereum at the level of $248.20.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Japan Virtual and Crypto Asset Exchange Association (JVCEA) - a self-regulatory organization for the cryptographic industry in Japan - recently published a March report on Japanese main cryptocurrency resources.

169.376 BTC is listed on the Japanese stock exchanges, over 11% more than in the previous month. XRP increased by 6.4% to XRP 3.2 billion. Ether increased by more than 5.7% to 1.14 million ETH.

In addition, the number of Bitcoins Cash, Monacoins, Litecoins and NEM also increased slightly in March. Bitcoin spot trading volume amounted to 617.3 billion yen (about 5.8 billion dollars), 11 times more than the trading volume of XRP, the second-largest cryptocurrency in the same month.

In March, Bitcoin fell by over 25%. He started the month with around $ 8,600, but on March 12, known as "Black Thursday," briefly fell below $ 5,000. Bitcoin ended the month close to $ 6,400.

The reason why Japanese investors have increased their cryptographic resources is not obvious.

It can be said that Japanese Bitcoin supporters did not hesitate to buy it again after the cryptocurrency market collapsed. There is also the possibility that Japanese investors were sending more cryptocurrencies to the stock exchanges for sale, as opposed to the recent withdrawal of Bitcoin from Coinbase.

Yuya Hasegawa, a market analyst at the FSA-licensed Bitbank cryptographic exchange, explained that usually price movement and cryptocurrency holding are "inversely correlated."

"At a time of price decline, we can say that users send crypto to the stock exchanges to profit or reduce losses. Another reason may be the Japanese premium on the BTC market compared to the market based on US dollars after March 12," he says.

Investors around the world have accumulated cryptocurrencies during a coronavirus pandemic. According to the British application for trading cryptocurrencies "Mode", investors from the Baby Boomers generation (born 1946-1964) and Generation-X (born 1965-1980) have increased their monthly investment in Bitcoins since the beginning of the pandemic.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $9,082, but the bounce has been capped at the level of $9,290, which is the key short-term technical resistance. Since then the market has been trading in a narrow zone and no new high or low was made during the weekend. The momentum is still positive, so odds for another move upwards are high as long as the level of $9,082 is not clearly violated. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
US secret services announced the creation of a Cybercrime Task Force (CFTF), while bringing their Electronic Crime Task Force and Financial Crime Task Force together into a single network. According to an official announcement, the secret services have been planning for two years to create a unified task force to fight cybercrime related to the financial sector and combat phenomena such as ransomware attacks, business email fraud or credit card theft.

CFTF appears in the context of the growing illegal market for stolen credit cards and bank data by darknet users. The Secret Service expressed concern about the role of cryptocurrencies behind them, the illegal online transactions behind them, because they have become "one of the main means by which criminals build their illegal profits."

Financial crime and cybercrime are two sides of the same coin. Digital browsing and Magecart attacks fuel darknet and space in the real world to payment fraud. This harms businesses and destroys confidence in the financial system. The combined FBI Cybercrime Task Force will allow better data sharing and a direct hit on the source of the problem.

The mission of the new CFTF aims to improve coordination and dissemination of best practices in all financially motivated cyber crime investigations. Secret Service said the US is facing a "growing threat" of transnational cybercrime, especially against the financial system.

A recent study by Digital Shadows revealed that over 15 billion credentials are circulating through darknet, a 300% increase since 2018. Available information includes network access credentials, banking login credentials, and even accounts from streaming services such as Netflix.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside of a narrow zone during the weekend and no new local low has been made. The recent drop has retraced 50% for the last wave up, but the bears were too weak to push the prices lower. Bounce from the level of $235.13 has been completed at the level of $243.00 and this is the current trading range. The volatility is slowly increasing during the early Monday trade, so there is still a chance for bulls to continue the move higher and test the level of $248.20. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for Jully 13,.2020 - Fake breakout of the trading range and potential for bigger drop towards the $7.800

Technical analysis:


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the BTC due to fake breakout of the trading range and the supply trendline in the background.

Downward targets are set at the price of $8,900 and $7,800.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have issued a joint fine on Abra, a crypto application that allows users to get synthetic exposure to traditional markets.

According to the SEC, Abra offered "swaps based on securities" to retail investors without proper registration, and "did not carry out these swaps on a registered national stock exchange."

Abra offered a kind of "centralized" synthetic asset in which users could obtain exposure to traditional securities, such as shares, by introducing Bitcoin and Litecoin as collateral. The system removed or added coins based on the up or down movements of the underlying securities.

As per SEC, this feature was introduced in February 2019 for all users, including the United States. Talks with SEC employees led Abrra to stop this function shortly thereafter. However, they introduced it again in May this year, this time preventing the participation of US residents.

It seems that this was not enough to avoid control. Despite moving some operations to the Philippines, Abra employees in California designed, marketed and secured contracts, and checked users who were admitted.

Daniel Michael, head of the SEC Enforcement Division Compound Financial Instruments Team, warned that companies cannot "evade federal securities laws" simply by contacting non-US retail investors "while operating key parts of their business in the United States."


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has reverses the recent rally after the breakout above the short-term trend line resistance turned out to be a false one. The bears took the control over the market again and pushed it close to the level of the local technical support located at $235.42. If the drop is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the levels of $232.04 and $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020