Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for September 22, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has bounced back to $42,000-430,00 levels after having dropped to the $40,000 mark on Tuesday. The crypto might be preparing to resume its rally from the current price ($42,000) or from around $37,500. As highlighted on the daily chart, the Fibonacci 0.618 extension of the drop between $53,000 and $43,000 is seen around the $37,100-200 mark.

The high probability remains for a bullish bounce if prices drop to the $37,000-500 zone. Apart from that, the level of $37,500 is close to previous price support seen around $37,300. Bulls might remain posed to initiate fresh long positions around the indicated zone and push BTC higher to $65,000. Immediate support is seen at $37,000-300, while resistance is seen near $48,500 respectively.

The counter-trend drop that had begun from the $53,000 level would complete near the $37,500 mark. If this is the case, bitcoin would resume its uptrend towards $65,000 and higher. Only a break below $35,000 will nullify the above bullish structure.


Trading plan:
Potential buy zone is 37300-500 against 35000, targeting above 53000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin nosedives amid uncertainty

The crypto market collapsed amid risk aversion and the uncertainty associated with Evergrande, the second-largest property developer in China.

China's government has already warned banks that Evergrande will not be able to pay debt obligations due September 20. Market participants fear that the company may repeat the fate of Lehman Brothers, triggering a domino effect in the construction market.

Trading floors remained closed in China for the holidays. The opening of the market on Wednesday will show whether the fall is going to continue.

So, analysts struggle to say whether today's rebound will be the first step to recovery or the market is still weak due to uncertainty. Therefore, they recommend investors remain cautious.

Jim Kramer, the host of the Mad Money show on CNBC, urged crypto investors to lock in profits due to the risks associated with Evergrande. He notes that cryptocurrencies may decline further.

"I know the crypto-lovers never want to hear me say sell, but if you've got a big gain as I did, well, I'm begging you to. Don't let it become a loss. Sell some, stay long the rest, then let's wait and see if China changes its attitude toward an Evergrande bailout," he said.

Cramer said that he was largely concerned about tether, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Tether is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, trailing only ether and bitcoin.

"The problem with tether is that it's backed by various holdings and roughly half of those are commercial paper - short-term loans - and much of that is believed to be, but we don't know, Chinese commercial paper," Cramer stressed.

Evergrande plays an important role in global markets. Apart from being the second-largest developer in China, the company operates a wide range of businesses, from healthcare to electric vehicles. Failure to fulfill debt obligations exceeding 300 billion is likely to have very negative consequences.

"Tether said they have no Evergrande exposure," Cramer acknowledged. "But tons of Chinese businesses stand to get crushed by this fiasco, and they have Evergrande exposure, and that could spell real trouble if the dominoes fall here," he pointed out.

He called on crypto investors to be alert while the Evergrande situation is not clarified. "If tether collapsed, well, then it's going to gut the whole crypto ecosystem. So if you own crypto in any form and you've got big gains, I recommend taking something off the table," Cramer said.

Speculators who have already closed all positions are commended to do the following. Let's look at the graph. Yesterday's forecast indicated that if BTC/USD fell to the level of 41980.24, this would be an alarming sign. If it hit the support level of 41980.24, then it would be a very good entry point for opening long positions.

Currently, on the chart, a strong false breakout of 41980.24 is seen due to uncertainty. It would be very risky to open any position as nothing is clear. Probably, tomorrow, when trading floors in China reopen after the holidays, there will be more clarity.

Analysts believe that if BTC does not drop below the horizontal level of 41980.24, bitcoin may recover after the panic over Evergrande subsides a little. This scenario is possible if Beijing helps the developer.

However, if BTC/USD fixes below the level of 41980.24, bitcoin is likely to drop lower to $38,000 and then to $34,000.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin plunged to $ 40,000 per coin



Bitcoin fell to $ 40,000. It can be recalled that it was mentioned in the previous articles that the new decline is very likely. The chart below shows that traders failed to break through the Ichimoku cloud, and a downward trend line was formed. As a result, Bitcoin broke through the level of $ 46,600 again, and then the level of $ 43,852 on its third attempt. After that, it further fell to the level of $ 40,746, where the decline has ended. However, this is not all. Bitcoin may continue its decline and there are several reasons for this. First, the fundamental background, which remains at least neutral for the world's first cryptocurrency. Earlier, it was mentioned that there was no compelling reason for Bitcoin's growth by $ 20,000 in the last few months. Therefore, it is likely that it will return to its original position in the near future. Second, the bullish trend is still considered complete. It can be recalled that the quotes fell from $ 66,000 to $ 29,000, which may serve as a signal for the completion of the bullish trend. If so, Bitcoin will now consolidate for a year or two, and during this time, the price may decline much below the level of $ 29,000.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency experts said that a new collapse in the cryptocurrency market could happen due to the threat of bankruptcy of one of China's largest construction companies, Evergrande. The developer has accumulated $ 309 billion in debt. More than half of construction projects are currently on pause, but the company's management promises to cope with all the problems and restructure debts. The same opinion is shared by the analytical company Glassnode, which published a similar statement. According to them, holders began to get rid of risky assets amid the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande. If this is true, then Bitcoin has once again shown its volatility, instability, and purely investment nature. If Bitcoin declines by 20% at the slightest risk of bankruptcy of one of the companies, then what confidence can there be in it? That is why many investors still avoid cryptocurrencies and do not want to deal with them.

As soon as a new collapse occurred, which could lead to new massive cryptocurrency sales, investors' sentiment immediately changed. For example, long-time bitcoin critic Peter Schiff predicted the imminent collapse of the cryptocurrency market with the words "the bubble will burst". "There is nothing special about Bitcoin. The supply of altcoins will grow until the cryptocurrency "bubble" bursts. He wrote that supply will exceed demand, and prices will collapse down instantly. He also once again stated that gold is better than cryptocurrencies since it has "utility". Thus, it is now important for traders to understand what values the new collapse of quotes will continue. We believe that the option of falling to the next support level of $ 31,100 is very likely.



It is clear that the trend in the four-hour time frame is descending. Bitcoin fell to the support level of $ 40,746 and broke through it even twice. However, it failed to consolidate below, so a small upward pullback may follow. However, it should be noted that the level of $ 43 852 was also broken on the third attempt, so nothing prevents Bitcoin from returning to the level of $ 40 746 again to break through it also on the third attempt. As long as the price is below the trend line, the downward trend remains.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Can Solana (SOL) recover from a network restart and gain a new rate of $200?



Solana (SOL) is slowly trying to recover and start a slow upward movement, since last week it was possible to observe the collapse of the crypto coin due to the fact that the network was disconnected for about 10 hours. After this moment, the network was restarted, and the price slightly recovered.

Now Solana (SOL) is trading at a price of $138. The news about the network outage was really very resonant and brought confusion to the market, especially when you consider that Solana (SOL) is developing by leaps and bounds and attracts the eyes of investors.

After the power outage, very rapid sales began on the wave of panic. Solana (SOL) is considered attractive for investors, since its ecosystem supports Defi and NFT, it guarantees very fast transaction speeds, as well as much lower transaction fees when compared with other blockchains, especially the Ethereum network.

Solana (SOL) may receive significant support in the very near future. PrimeXBT, which is a key multi-currency trading platform, is ready to add Solana (SOL) as a tool for trading.

The company announced its full readiness to add cryptocurrency to the platform's listing due to significant demand from institutional investors.

The key level to watch out for is the level of $172. It takes a significant surge of pressure from buyers to raise Solana (SOL) from the level of $138 to the level of $172.

If there is a bullish mood now, then this level can be broken through during September, which will help the cryptocurrency to consolidate and go to the level of $200.

During August and September, Solano really turned out to be one of the most attractive pieces for the institutions. Its network was considered one of the most promising and competed even with the Ethereum network.

If now there is a recovery in the price of the cryptocurrency and increased demand from investors, then nothing can prevent the cryptocurrency from breaking the $200 milestone.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum faces further decline

Ethereum was dropping like a rock at the time of writing. It was traded at 2872.10 at the time of writing far below today's high of 3103.46. Today's low stands at the 2803.20 level. ETH/USD could approach and reach this low as long as Bitcoin drops.

The cryptocurrency declines within a down channel. Only an upside breakout from this pattern may signal that Ethereum could register an upwards movement. ETH/USD dropped by more than 7.50% from today's high of 3103.46. The pressure is high, so a further drop is imminent.

ETHEREUM SELL-OFF



Technically, ETH/USD failed to stay above the former low of 3,015 and above the 38.2% retracement level signaling a larger downside movement. It has printed a false breakout with great separation below the 50% (2,872.14) retracement level and under the S2 (2,807.92).

Unfortunately, the rate failed to come back and stabilize above the weekly S1 (3,068.20) indicating strong sellers.

ETH OUTLOOK

The failure to come back higher after printing the pin bar (false breakdown with great separation) signaled that ETH/USD could extend its correction. Dropping and stabilizing below the S2 (2807.91) announces a deeper drop towards the down channel's support.

Ethereum could develop an important upside movement only if it stays above the 50% and S1 level and most important if it makes a new higher high to jump and close above 3,103.46.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin seen not deflationary and altcoin market may collapse

Over the past few weeks, the information background around the cryptocurrency market has deteriorated significantly, and the recent declines have only made the situation worse. However, another bad news is that the altcoin market formed a bubble, which will burst soon. In addition, research by Chainalysis proves that there is no reason to believe that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, which could harm the investment flows of the BTC.

Chainalysis analytical company conducted a study, according to the results of which no accurate statistics are reflecting the correlation between the rate of BTC and the US dollar depreciation. The head of the company's analytical department said that this was proof that BTC does not act as a risk hedge. The expert also emphasized that the introduction of crypto-assets is carried out in countries where the rate of inflation and devaluation cannot be slowed down. In some African and Latin American countries cryptoassets are used in everyday life. That means there should be statistics that show the real advantage of BTC in protecting against inflation.

Chainalysis's viewpoint can be explained by the absence of direct statistical data, but there are financial reports of major investors, such as Tesla Motors, which directly show the profit from the BTC. In addition, several major banks, such as JPMorgan, recommended buying bitcoin in the amount of 1% of the investment portfolio. The share of institutional investors in BTC also indicates the advisability of protective investments in the coin. Therefore, the lack of statistics does not preclude the actual profits that BTC transactions generate. Given Evergrande's possible bankruptcy and monetization of its debt, bitcoin inflation protection will be able to offset other disadvantages of the cryptocurrency and advantages of major competitors.

Despite a promising future, at 5:00 p.m., the cryptocurrency was experiencing significant problems. BTC slipped beyond the key support at $42,800. If it forms a bearish candle at the end of the trading day, the $40,000 retest will be a matter of time. On the daily chart, there are signs of reversing or sideways movement, but right now, the bears are still pushing it below $42,000. And judging by the hourly chart, the downtrend is only getting stronger. The stochastic indicator is moving to the oversold area and the MACD has lost its chances to make a bullish reversal and started falling down. Most likely, the coin will test $40,000 and the market may start to recoup after the fall, but until then, opening long positions is not advised.




The situation with the altcoin market is also tense, as there is a possibility of another collapse due to the formation of a bubble. Euro Pacific Capital CEO and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff said that the altcoin market had formed a bubble, which would burst soon. He said the market has more than 14,000 tokens and more than 80 of them have a market cap of over a billion dollars each. If supply exceeds demand, the altcoin market will collapse. There is a certain logic in Schiff's words because right now a large percentage of investors have left the cryptocurrency market due to a powerful collapse and multimillion losses. In such a case, there is indeed a risk of a collapse of the altcoin market. This is also indicated by a big drop in NFT-sector sales, which suggests some overbought, and it is likely that there will be a local collapse in the altcoin market. However, if this does not happen in the next two to three days, then the threat of collapse can be considered as vanished.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum, ETH, for September 21 - 22, 2021: Sell below $3,125 (6/8)



The cryptocurrency with the second highest volume of transactions is trading around the psychological level of 3,000. In the Asian session, it fell to the low at 2,812. From this level, it is now rebounding and is likely to continue rising until it finds resistance at the line of 6/8 murray around 3,125.

Ethereum has serious problems to recover because it is now below the SAM of 21. It entered trading below this moving average since September 7 when the cryptocurrency market had a sharp fall.

Since that date, Ethereum has been moving within a price range between 3,480 and 3,125. This led to the formation of an inverted pennant pattern, which targets the EMA of 200 located at 2,534.

Therefore, while ETH is below the technical pattern and below 6/8 of a murray, the downward pressure will increase and could trigger a fall to the level of 4/8 of a murray located at 2,500 and the EMA of 200.

The medium-term outlook still remains bullish for Ethereum as the 200 EMA is acting as a support. If it makes a technical bounce in the moving average, there will be a good opportunity to buy with a target at 2,812, 3,125 and up to 3,488 level of SMA 21.

The scenario could turn bearish if ETH consolidates below the key level of 2,500 and below the 200 EMA. Then, it could drop to the next support of 2,187 (3/8) and up to 1,875, the level of July 21.

Our outlook in the short term will be bullish as long as it remains above 2,500. Therefore, in case of a rebound at these levels we can buy. If ETH approaches the SMA of 21 and fails to break it, it will be a good opportunity to sell with targets at 4/8 of murray.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 21 - 22, 2021
Resistance (3) 3,278
Resistance (2) 3,125
Resistance (1) 3,081

Support (1) 2,812
Support (2) 2,640
Support (3) 2,515





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Increase in volatility in Bitcoin.

As expected Bitcoin price broke below $43,000 and moved today as low as $40,025. Price remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. Price is now back testing the broken support of $43,000-$43,600.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracements

Red lines - Fibonacci extension targets

Blue line -previous support now resistance

Bitcoin so far has retraced more than 50% of the entire rise from $29,000. Price has reached very close to our first target of $38,950 as we mentioned in our latest analysis. As long as price is below $49,000 bears will be in control of the trend and price will be vulnerable to more downside. Bitcoin price is bouncing towards the previous support and now resistance at $43,000. A rejection here will increase chances of a move below $39,000.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Discount price

The correction season is in full swing. In the previous article on cryptocurrencies, we summed up the results of seasonal corrections for more than 10 years. Statistics have shown that the beginning of autumn in 7 out of 10 cases is corrective in the cryptocurrency market.

Buying Bitcoin or Altcoins at the peak of an upward trend is expensive and scary, at this point, it is worth taking profits, and not buying more. To increase the financial portfolio, corrections are excellent, where with a discount of 15.20, or 35%, we are given the opportunity to buy an asset. At this moment, it is also scary, but we have at least some opportunity to balance the risks.

This principle is followed by experienced market participants, including financial funds. The well-known company MicroStrategy during the previous collapse, on September 7, increased the volume of positions on Bitcoin. Now the situation is similar, the first cryptocurrency has sunk by 12%, which is considered a strong price change. If we proceed from the technical instrument RSI, then we have the oversold status. The indicator dropped to the level of 25 p., this is the area of the previous collapse.

That is, buying off the crypto market has high chances.

Analyzing the financial sector, crypto traders have long noticed a positive correlation with the S&P and NASDAQ indices. If the index is in the correction stage, then the cryptocurrency market is falling.

Correction on NASDAQ has been taking place since September 8, strengthening of the corrective course occurred from September 17 to 20. This coincides with the cycles in the cryptocurrency market.

If we analyze the NASDAQ correction cycles, we will see almost the same period. Approximately from the 14th to the 22nd day of each month, the market goes into a planned correction. As if big players are taking profits at this moment, and after that, I again buy assets into my portfolio.

Following this theory, an upward cycle may re-emerge in the coming week, which will positively affect the cryptocurrency market.

Concerns about the Fed's actions

On September 22, the results of the autumn meeting of the Fed will be published, where market participants are concerned about the further prospects of monetary policy in the United States. It is assumed that the key interest rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0-0.25%. The most important point is the fate of the quantitative easing program, which could hit the US stock market very hard. This, in turn, will affect the cryptocurrency market in terms of a deep decline.

At the moment, there is no clear confirmation of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program, these are only rumors. The Fed and the White House are very wary of this topic, as they are well aware of what could happen on Wall Street.

In this situation, we are only setting the stage for the worst-case scenario in the market.



What is happening on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

Bitcoin has already lost more than 15% of its value, which has led to a control convergence with the psychological level of $40,000. The market is already following in the area of interaction of trade forces, this may benefit buyers. In this situation, one should not expect a quick recovery in the Bitcoin exchange rate, primarily because there remains a high risk of uncertainty caused by a possible change in the Fed's monetary policy. If the quantitative easing program is not curtailed at the upcoming meeting, but, for example, this step is postponed, then the US stock market will go up, followed by the crypto market. This scenario, quite possibly, will return the Bitcoin exchange rate to the levels of $46,000- $48,000 in two weeks.

If the Fed takes tough measures and starts curtailing the quantitative easing program, then in this case the US indices will fall by 5-8%, while the crypto market will sink by 15-30%.

Ethereum completely repeated the cycles of Bitcoin, where in just 2.5 weeks the rate of the second cryptocurrency fell by more than $1,000. Currently, the price range of $2,600/$2,850 serves as a support area, relative to which buyers are trying to restore the ETH exchange rate.

The pivot point has a fundamental rationale and could be the beginning of an outgoing turn towards the $4,000 level. It is worth considering that a negative scenario for the Fed may violate all technical plots, where the support area will be immediately broken through.



The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at the level of 27 points, decreasing by almost half as compared to the last week. The fear of a possible collapse is visible to the naked eye, but do not rush to conclusions, the market is still in a bullish trend.







Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin drops to $40k amid possible bankruptcy of Evergrande

One may wonder how the news about the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande may affect bitcoin. Yet, the connection is quite clear. As of September 21, Evergrande shares have collapsed by 81% since the beginning of 2021 as the liquidity crisis deepens and inflation rises higher. According to the Chinese banks, Evergrande will not be able to pay its debt obligations due on September 20. When the total debt of Evergrande reached $300 billion, rumors about the possible bankruptcy of the company appeared. In any case, the financial problems of one of the world's largest developers have already affected the global financial market, including the cryptocurrency one.



On September 20, BTC continued to decline despite a slight rebound. After the news, the BTC price reached the $40,000 mark on the largest crypto exchanges. Shortly after, it bounced to the nearest milestone of $43,000. As of 14:00, it is trading at $43,100 with daily trading volumes of $46.9 billion. Bulls and bears are pulling the rope. However, bears are likely to take the upper hand. The bearish bias has intensified not only due to the fluctuations in markets but because of other factors.

Now, the crypto market is highly volatile. The turmoil in the financial sector only adds fuel to the fire. The crypto fear and greed index, which is used by investors to gauge the market, sank to 27. It indicates cautious trading in the crypto market, in particular with bitcoin. Despite yesterday's collapse, the losses of traders were not a big as after the collapse of the crypto market on September 13. In the short term, bitcoin will try to stabilize and consolidate above the support level of $44,000. On the horizontal charts, indicators signal a gradual completion of a downward movement. On the 4H chart, the price is likely to enter the sideways channel. The MACD indicator left the red zone and began moving along the horizontal line. The stochastic and RSI reached the 40 mark and also signal growth.



The daily chart also signals a reversal and the following upward movement. Stochastic performed a reversal and may soon form a bullish intersection, which is an important signal for a possible rise above $44,000. The MACD indicator moves along the zero level and is in the red zone. Yet, it may also form a bullish intersection. The RSI indicator climbed to the 40 mark. However, a bit later, it again sank below it. It may indicate an upcoming reduction in short positions. If BTC manages to climb above $44,000, then there are chances of an increase above $45,000. At this level, the digital asset may consolidate. However, in the case of a bearish breakout of $43,000, it may drop below the key support level of $42,800 and retest the level of $40,000. The second scenario implies a sharp trend reversal.



The situation is also aggravated by on-chain activity. It does not recover even despite the BTC fall. The divergence on the charts in terms of the number of unique addresses in the BTC network continues to gain momentum despite the price decline. However, the statistics on medium-and long-term holders of bitcoin are rather interesting. It remains bullish. As of September 21, the BTC supply is at an all-time low. It seems that BTC holders have not transferred or performed operations with coins over the past three months, which confirms the assumption of an accumulation period and a long-term uptrend.



This is why the news about the possible bankruptcy of a large developer with a $300 billion debt is so vital. The company will have to resort to debt restructuring or its monetization (issuance of paper money). The decline of bitcoin will become a decisive factor in the investment flows into it. It will significantly strengthen its position. In the near future, BTC will continue to trade within a narrow range, trying to break above of $42,800. This is why traders refrain from opening long positions. At the same time, holders may increase their long positions amid the inflationary tension in the global economy.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021