Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 20, 2020 - Watch for the breakout fo the upward channel and symmetrical triangle to confirm downside rotation towards the level at $8.150

News:


As such, the difficulty of mining is set to self-adjust every 2016 blocks -basically every two weeks- in order to maintain a steady block interval. For instance, if it took more than two weeks to mine the previous 2016 blocks, the difficulty decreases. If it took less, mining difficulty is increased.

On May 20, the difficulty decreased by 6% to 15.14T. According to Glassnode, this decrease was expected and is consistent with the recent drop in hashrate after the halving.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the symmetrical triangle and upward channel. The downward targets are set at the price of $9,085 and $8,150. Main resistance is set at the price of $10,000




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 21 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The team responsible for the tBTC project, an attempt to transfer Bitcoin to Ethereum via decentralized depositories, closed the bridge just two days after launch.

The decision was revealed today by Matt Luongo, founder of Thesis, a company that supports tBTC as part of the Keep project. TBTC was launched on May 16 in the Ethereum network, operating just two days before performing a temporary shutdown operation.

Although the team did not specify the reason for disabling the protocol, it seems likely that this was due to a smart contract error discovered by Antonio Salazar Cardozo, head of labor engineering. Luongo explained that the contract has been checked many times, but it seems that this was not enough.

Luongo emphasized that tBTC will "rise again", probably after the team re-implements the agreed smart contracts.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the Triangle pattern and the breakout direction was down. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart). The local low was made at the level of $205.05 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $198.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
From April 11 to May 14, Bitcoin transaction fees increased by more than 1,250% from $ 0.38 to $ 5.16.

Although transaction fees have since fallen by 33.3% to around $ 3.44, they have risen again by 36.5% since the May 11 halving.

The average cost of transactions in the Bitcoin network increased by over 800% in just one month, with the highest transaction fees from July 2019 recorded in May.

Halving fees increased by more than a third, which resulted in a 105% increase in transaction costs in three days. Although fees reach their highest levels in almost a year, current transaction costs account for less than one-tenth of the record levels recorded at the end of 2017.

Before Bitcoin's second halving on July 9, 2016, fees increased by approximately 200% from $ 0.081 on May 1, 2016, to a peak of about $ 0.24 published both in mid-June and late July of that year.

Bitcoin's first halving on November 28, 2012 increased fees by 300% from November 26 to November 27, followed by a return to pre-halving levels within two days of reducing block prizes.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen hovering around the level of $10,000 which is the key short-term technical resistance for the bulls for almost all week, but after the recent local high was made at the level of $9,884, the bears started to make more pressure on the market. In the result, two Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns were made side by side and the price reacted accordingly. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,382 and $9,249. Please notice, the market conditions on daily time frame chart are extremely overbought.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 21,.2020 - The drop on BTC started and conifmed our downside view. Downward target is set at the price of $8.150

News:


A rally in April 2020 lifted crypto hedge fund YTD profits to 13.4 percent, while a wider hedge fund industry suffered losses.

Meanwhile, the Embark Group's Peter Toogood warned that many fund managers are not bullish on the U.S. stocks.

Some of the world's leading hedge funds are losing the profit-making race to smaller rivals with high exposure in the Bitcoin market.

Hedge fund research group HFR found that bitcoin-focused investment partnerships earned 13.4 percent yields this year, which came to be better than the average 6.7 percent YTD loss across the non-crypto hedge fund industry. The crypto industry flourished despite losing 26.62 of its capitalization on average in March 2020.

Pantera Capital, for instance, bore a 33.6 percent loss via its Digital Assets Fund in March. But its recovery in April took its YTD profits to 32.5 percent.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the BTC broke the upward channel and test the level of $9,200. I still see BTC downside and the next downward target is set at the price of $8,150.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The university, which trains officials of the Communist Party of China, has published a new book about cryptocurrencies.

According to a local publication, the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China - also known as the Central Party School - published a book as part of a series of books on breakthrough technologies. Previous entries in this series were "Dialogue with party leaders about AI" and "Dialogue with party leaders about Blockchain".

The goal of the book series is to provide party officials and the public with a source of information on emerging new technology trends. Chinese Central Bank directors, commercial banking directors and regulators were invited to write a prologue to a new published book on cryptography.

The book begins with the history and origin of fiat currency, and then gives an overview of the current credit currency system and its disadvantages. This leads to a section on cryptographic movement and the birth of Bitcoin.

The book further explores the nature and future of the digital currency and explains in detail what cryptographic exchanges and ICOs are. Discusses and analyzes regulatory problems regarding these new solutions.

The entire chapter of the book was distributed to the Digital Currencies of the Central Bank (CBDC). Explains the strategy behind digital Yuan and the impact it would have on the current payment system. A full comparative analysis of CBDC, Libra and stablecoins was included.

It warns against the dangers of super sovereign cryptocurrencies, such as Libra, questioning the monetary sovereignty of countries with imperfect financial market infrastructure. Proposes regulatory measures to address these trends.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has extended the losses after the breakout from the Triangle pattern. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart) and below another trend line support as well (marked in brown on the chart). The local low was made at the level of $190 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $188.86 and $186.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Bitcoin address, which collected 50 BTC from mining, has just shown the first sign of activity since February 2009 - just a month after the creation of Bitcoin.

According to data, the address 17XiVVooLcdCUCMf9s4t4jTExacxwFS5uh transferred the entire award for mining 50 BTC to two different wallets. Of this, 40 BTC remains inactive. The remaining 10 BTC were sent to the multiple address, as evidenced by its starting number.

Since then, the transaction chain has become more difficult to track because Bitcoins have been split into almost tens of parts within a complex chain.

The original wallet contained a transaction generating 50 Bitcoins, which were mined on February 9, 2009. In the community it is known that Satoshi's "fortune" is spread over many different wallets.

Only three people knew about Bitcoin at the time: Satoshi, the dead Hal Finney and Martti Malmi.

Theories about the potential owner of these funds include the wife of Finney and Malmi, but Satoshi is also a likely candidate. The complex transaction chain suggests that the signatory is trying to hide the destination of the funds.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been pushed lower after almost a week of hovering around the level of $10,000, but not breaking it. The bears has pushed the price towards the level of $8,759, which is just a tad above the trend line support. If this trend line is violated, then the losses might extend towards the level of $8,464 or below. Please notice, the momentum is weak and negative which supports the short term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Just before halving, Bitcoin's Hash Rate has almost reached its new ATH. Unfortunately, shortly after halving (as expected by many analysts) we saw drastic drops. Citing data provided by blockchain.com, the 7-day average HR value of the BTC network increased for the first time since May 11. Admittedly, a small reflection of only 1% may suggest slow stabilization of this very important indicator.

May 22 Hash Rate fluctuated at 94.6 million H / s, the previous day the value was 93.6 H / s, which is an increase of 1.11%. Just before halving, the new ATH was at hand, but unfortunately everything indicates that we will have to wait for the new record.

Drastic drops in the power of the BTC network have caused concern among many analysts. Many claimed that Hash Rate fell into a "spiral of death" and fell to the bottom. A ray of hope gives the last positive reading.

After halving, as expected, many miners capitulated. Reducing the mining prize by half has pushed many out of the market.

The decrease in Hash Rate also had an impact on the amount of adjustment of the difficulty of digging BTC. This, in turn, fell from 16.1 T to 15.1 T. From a miner's point of view, this is a good signal, as it may encourage some of them to return.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the key trend line support located around the level of $8,800 and made a new local low at the level of $8,567. The next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,568
WR2 - $10,245
WR1 - $9,478

Weekly Pivot - $9,098
WS1 - $8,333
WS2 - $7,968
WS3 - 7,231


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 25 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to an announcement from the Banque de France, France became the first country to successfully try the digital euro operating on Blockchain after calling for new technologies to support such progress.

The bank claims that on May 14, it tested the sale of securities for central bank digital currencies (CBDC), signaling the launch of more detailed testing. Although the bank's announcement was not very detailed, it indicated that the current pilot program focused on wholesale rather than retail for the digital euro. Retail CBDC would be open to ordinary consumers through Bitcoin or Apple Pay. The latest pilot issue of securities in exchange for the digital euro was based on the software received after the March 27 call for proposals. According to today's announcement, the bank will devote the next few weeks to conducting similar tests for other applications received under the same initiative.

Banque de France is particularly active in the development of the digital euro. By the time Great Britain leaves, France will become the second largest economy in the euro area after Germany.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $190.55, but did not manage to make a new high above the level of $217. After the Shooting Star candlestick was made at the level of $209.89 the Ethereum rate begin to move lower. The bulls had all the weekend to push the prices higher, but they failed and now the market is very close to the key short-term trend line support located around the level of $196.30. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support located at the level of $193.78 and $188.88.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $234.40
WR2 - $228.76
WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00
WS1 - $192.21
WS2 - $178.64
WS3 - $166.85


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 25,.2020 - Downcycle in progress. Downward target set at $8.140

Coronavirus summary:


The volume of Bitcoin (BTC) tweets is on the rise once again pointing to a strengthening of bullish expectations among traders.

Tweeting on Monday, analyst Zack Voell highlighted the significant surge in Bitcoin Twitter mentions over the past few months. In the past, social media metrics such as tweet volume or comments on platforms like Reddit have indicated the emergence of bullish sentiments among traders.

Anyway, I cant see technicly any sings of the upside and there is good condiiton for further downside.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. The price is heading towards our second target from Friday at the level of $8,137. I still see further downside movement.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies targets at $8,137 and $7,785.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The President of Iran has commissioned central bank officials and ministries of energy, communication and IT to prepare plans for a national strategy for mining cryptocurrencies.

As reported by Iranian media, officials received information during the 137th session of Iran's economic coordination center earlier this week, chaired by President Hassan Rouhani. The situation takes place shortly after the announcement by the Iranian government of a policy of denominating the national currency, or rial, to address the problem of paralyzing chronic inflation. Earlier this week, Iran also introduced cryptocurrencies to its foreign currency exchange regulations and enforcement measures against currency smuggling. This will cause cryptographic exchanges licensed by the Central Bank of Iran to be subject to applicable regulatory regimes for foreign currencies during periods of extreme capital outflows from emerging markets during a global pandemic.

While further details on Iran's national cryptocurrency mining strategy have not yet been clarified, Iran has already issued about 1,000 licenses for cryptocurrency miners in the country and has granted permission to the Turkish cryptocurrency mining company iMiner to set up a facility with 6,000 excavators in of the province of Semnan. The Iranian government allowed the extraction of cryptocurrencies as industrial activity in July 2019. In the ongoing difficult economic situation, the general of the Guard Corps of the Islamic Revolution turned to the crowds earlier this year, calling on the country to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions.

President Rouhani himself argued for the creation of an alternative currency, potentially digital, to loosen the grip that US sanctions exert as "the main tools for dominating hegemony and intimidation" of certain nations.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating for the last 24h around the level of $200. Earlier this week, Ethereum bounced from the level of $190.55, but did not manage to make a new high above the level of $217. After the Shooting Star candlestick was made at the level of $209.89 the Ethereum rate begin to move lower. The bulls had all the weekend to push the prices higher, but they failed and now the market is very close to the key short-term trend line support located around the level of $196.30. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support located at the level of $193.78 and $188.88.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $234.40
WR2 - $228.76
WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00
WS1 - $192.21
WS2 - $178.64
WS3 - $166.85


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020