Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Patrick McHenry wants to make it easier for crypto startups to raise funds in the US. Brazil follows the path of El Salvador


Republican Leader Patrick McHenry expressed his desire to make it easier for crypto startups to raise funds without violating the US securities law. He proposed a bill called "Safe Harbor" on Tuesday, ahead of the SEC hearing, where Chairman Gary Gensler is expected to speak.

"The "Clarity for Digital Tokens Act of 2021" will effectively codify the proposal by SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce for a safe haven for tokens, "McHenry said.



This is a rather serious support from the politician, since the implementation of such an idea will open many doors for crypto startups, which will then entail the creation and sale of new tokens to finance their goals. And most importantly, all this can be done without fear that at any moment the SEC may step in and equate tokens with shares or other types of assets that should be subject to regulation. McHenry has long been proposing a number of crypto-friendly bills and has called on federal agencies to create a working group to fully define the rules of cryptography.

Regarding the proposal by Hester Pierce, new companies and startups will have three years to either register with the securities regulator and take control, or fulfill a number of requirements to prove that they are completely decentralized. McHenry's proposed bill echoes Peirce's principles regarding when startups will have to register or how they can verify that their projects no longer meet the federal definition of "security."

McHenry notes that the current regulatory framework threatens to push crypto and the jobs created by it overseas, so he is proposing a bill that will help provide necessary legal certainty for digital asset projects.

On a different note, local reports say Brazil is planning to follow El Salvador in accepting Bitcoin as one of the means of payment within the country. Federal Deputy Aureo Ribeiro said the citizens may soon be able to buy houses, cars and even fast food using the cryptocurrency.

The comment was made immediately after the approval of the "Bitcoin Law", which was considered in a plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies. Ribeiro said that by design, this law could be a reference for other countries wishing to regulate digital assets.



Because of this, Bitcoin hit $50,000, however, there was no major profit taking. In any case, a break through this level will lead to a further jump to $ 50,900 and $ 54,444, while a drop below will result in a plunge to $ 47,260, and then to $ 43,333 and $ 40,600.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading volume in the crypto market fell due to the 'WhatsApp' crash




The almost six-hour shutdown of WhatsApp on Monday affected the trading volume of assets from cryptocurrencies to oil, and even the rapid transition to alternative platforms such as Telegram has limited serious disruptions.

Despite the fact that many financial institutions discourage employees from using services such as WhatsApp and other Facebook platforms that went down on Monday, their convenience has made them popular among traders communicating with clients in over-the-counter (OTC) markets.

Facebook Inc was accused of a misconfiguration that led to the shutdown of WhatsApp, Instagram, and Messenger, which was the largest shutdown in history. Among those affected was BCB Group, a London-based crypto firm offering over-the-counter trading, as well as others. Facebook services stopped working at around noon Eastern time (16:00 GMT), a key period for BCB traders.

"WhatsApp stopped working at the most inopportune time, when the largest trading volume occurs," CEO Oliver von Landsberg Sadie said.

As a result of the problems with the connection, the trading volume fell by 15% per day.

According to VoxSmart CEO Oliver Blower, the use of WhatsApp among financial traders, tracked by VoxSmart's communications surveillance firm, has increased dramatically as banks agree that customers want to use the platform, even if bosses prefer employees to use official messaging channels.

Today, VoxSmart tracks three to five million messages weekly by asset class, including between banks and customers.

The shutdown of WhatsApp on Monday was more of a nuisance than a serious violation.

For example, the market communication in India via WhatsApp has moved to Telegram, where there are fewer restrictions on the size of group chats. The shutdown also occurred after markets closed in most of Asia.

OTC traders in the oil markets also suffered, although the blow was again mitigated by the use of other platforms.

Oil traders said WhatsApp was commonly used to transmit information about orders in Europe and Asia.





Irina Yanina
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Edward Snowden touted Bitcoin's durability despite the increasing amount of regulatory controls over cryptocurrencies around the world.

A former agent of the US Central Intelligence Agency stated on Twitter that Bitcoin has become stronger thanks to government bans and anti-cryptocurrency policy.

Snowden's tweet referenced comments on March 13, 2020, during the Black Thursday crisis that caused cryptocurrency and stock markets to collapse amid fears of the coronavirus pandemic. Snowden was not concerned about Bitcoin's 50% decline at the time.

"The number has risen about 10 times since then, despite a coordinated global campaign by governments to challenge public understanding and support for cryptocurrencies," Snowden tweeted on Sunday.

During the Black Thursday crash in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to $ 3,800. However, it has since set a new all-time record of around $ 64,800.

Trading above $ 47,000 since its publication, the BTC spot price has increased more than 10 times since Snowden's March 2020 tweet.

Indeed, 2021 was a year of sweeping Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, especially in China, where Beijing authorities raised the stakes on negative cryptocurrency policies.

Snowden previously commented on the El Salvador Bitcoin Act, stating that other countries could thus be encouraged to accept BTC as a reserve asset.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $51,852 (at the time of writing the article) and some Pin Bars are now present at the end of the rally at the H4 time frame chart. It looks like, the market might have been completed the wave 3/C and it is ready for a pull-back. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $48,775, but the immediate technical support is located at $50,465.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $61,007
WR2 - $54,857
WR1 - $52,632

Weekly Pivot - $42,280
WS1 - $43,798
WS2 - $38,065
WS3 - $35,092


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 6, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Bank of America Corporation (BoA) has published a report talking about the optimistic long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies.

The report was published by BoA's subsidiary BofA, which deals with the digital sector.

The report said the $ 2.15 trillion cryptocurrency market capitalization is "too big to ignore," stressing that the digital asset ecosystem has evolved.

The report characterizes the sector as one, which includes "tokens that act like operating systems, decentralized applications (DApps), stablecoins linked to fiat currencies, CBDC replacing national currencies, and NFTs that enable links between creators and fans.

Another point was that venture capital in the crypto and blockchain sector grew dramatically in 2021, where over $ 17 billion invested in the industry in the first half of this year is more than three times the $ 5.5 billion invested in this sector during the past year.

The report also highlighted the recent soaring rates of cryptocurrency adoption, estimating that 221 million users worldwide were trading cryptocurrency or using blockchain applications in June 2021, up from 66 million in May.

Looking at the NFT, BoA concludes that the sector's dynamic growth surprised even seasoned cryptocurrency users, highlighting that the OpenSea market generated over $ 2.5 billion in the first half of 2021.

However, the report warns of the volatility associated with the emerging non-exchangeable token sector, stating that the elevated risk in this segment must be fully understood before the NFT can achieve true adoption.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $3,546, but the rally ended with a Pin Bar candlestick formation for the second time in a row, so a temporary pull-back towards the level of $3,252 might be in progress. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $3,173 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,552. Please notice the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the short-term bearish view.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,444
WR2 - $3,970
WR1 - $3,761

Weekly Pivot - $3,277
WS1 - $3,057
WS2 - $2,590
WS3 - $2,360


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Institutional investors are interested in Bitcoin again




Bitcoin increased to the level of $ 51,350 during the first few days of the current week. Earlier, it was mentioned that this scenario is very likely, since the price first passed the Ichimoku cloud, and then the trend line. It should also be noted that if the level of $ 48,682 is broken, then Bitcoin can further rise to the next level. This is what happened. From a technical point of view, it can be seen that everything is quite simple and easily predictable at this time, but it is very difficult to deal with the "foundation" now. In particular, there have been several important news for Bitcoin recently, but most of these testified in favor of a further decline of the quotes. However, the main digital asset was not allowed below the level of $ 40,746 – every time Bitcoin approached this level, they immediately began to buy it.

Therefore, the fundamental background in recent weeks has not been fully worked out. Now, it is generally very difficult to find a reason why Bitcoin's price has risen by $ 10,000 again in a few days. Last week, Jerome Powell said that the Fed is not going to ban bitcoin following the example of China. But things turned out like this: China imposes a ban on bitcoin and all transactions with it, which resulted in a decline by $ 10,000. El Salvador makes Bitcoin the second official payment in the country and Bitcoin declined by $ 7,000; lastly, the Fed announces the preservation of the status quo for Bitcoin and it grows by $ 10,000. It does not make sense.

Therefore, we believe that the fundamental background is currently not more important for Bitcoin, but the general market sentiment. It shows that market participants are quite willing to buy cryptocurrency and quite actively protect it around certain levels. In addition, CoinShares said that institutional investors are interested again in Bitcoin over the past few weeks, and there was a decline in altcoins. In general, all this allowed Bitcoin to rise again to the level of $ 51,350.

What to expect next? From the point of view of the fundamental background, there is nothing to say now, since there is practically no news. The markets are still waiting for the US Congress to approve the "infrastructure package", after which it will be thoroughly known what changes await the US cryptocurrency sphere. The markets are also waiting for the US Senate's decision on the government debt limit, as well as the Fed's decision on the QE program, which will be announced during the next meeting, that is, on November 3. It can be seen there are still a lot of potentially important topics on the range, but Bitcoin is simply in demand on the market at this time.



There is still an upward trend on the four-hour timeframe. The price already broke through the level of $ 51,350, so a rebound from this level can trigger a new round of correction with the targets of $ 48,682 and $ 46,600. In this case, it is suggested to sell Bitcoin. If the level of $ 51,350 is broken, then one can still buy with targets around the level of $ 56,500.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for October 06, 2021




Technical outlook:
Bitcoin has rallied close to $51,900 mark in the past hour, before pulling back. The crypto is trading very close to $53,000 interim resistance as bulls remain inclined to be in control further. Ideally, a pullback towards $46,000 remains possible before resuming higher. Traders who are still holding long positions opened earlier might take some profits.

Bitcoin remain bullish until prices stay above $40,000 mark and a near-term target could be above $65,000 levels. Immediate price resistance is seen around $53,000, followed by $65,000, while support is seen at $40,000 levels respectively. Please note that intraday pullbacks remain possible from here but they should be capped ahead of $40,000.

The next interim buy zone is between $44,000 and $46,000 mark as bulls might be preparing to come back in control. The next leg should push prices towards $65,000 and higher provided $40,000 remains intact.


Trading plan:
Potential buy zone around 44,000-46,000, stop 40,000 with target @ 65,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

How to use technical indicators when trading ETH/USD


Ether is currently the second-largest digital currency by market capitalization after bitcoin. Many experts think that ether has far more advantages than bitcoin. Yet, one should choose completely different strategies when trading these digital assets despite some similar features between them. The growth rate of ether is significantly higher compared to bitcoin. It is associated with different groups of traders that buy these altcoins. Support levels in the crypto market are formed in another way as well as breakouts of resistance levels. However, to start trading ETH/USD, it is necessary to use familiar technical indicators on the horizontal charts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator that allows traders to determine the force of a trend (descending or ascending) and foresee possible changes in the price movement. Thanks to this indicator, it is possible to identify at what level an asset will become overbought or oversold. The optimal level for this indicator is 60 if we need a bullish trend. It indicates a high demand for the coin and the strength of the current upward momentum. When crossing this level, the digital asset begins to move to the overbought zone.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a popular technical momentum indicator that helps traders draw certain conclusions about the trend based on the movement of moving averages and the relation between the two moving averages. It signals bullish momentum when the intersection of the white line under the red occurs. It indicates bearish momentum when the white line from above crosses the red.

A stochastic Oscillator, also referred to as a Stochastic Indicator, is a momentum indicator that helps determine the direction of the prevailing trend. If the indicator is above the 80 level, then the asset is overbought. If it is below 20, then the asset is oversold.

Notably, demand for ether among retail traders is growing thanks to several reasons. Firstly, it is not as institutionalized as BTC, which helps ether lesser dependence on the flows of large capital. In addition, the speed and security of transactions on the ETH network are much better than that of bitcoin. The recent London hard fork update has significantly reduced the size of commissions, attracting a large number of individual traders. The main advantage of ether is a developed ecosystem that allows using the capabilities of the DeFi and NFT market. Ether managed to increase transaction volumes by 260% amid these developments.

As of October 5, ETH/USD was trading at $3,400. Analysts are sure that ether is likely to reach a new all-time high amid positive sentiment in the crypto market. Analysis of technical charts helps you to determine the main trend of the cryptocurrency by looking at what level it is located. Technical indicators may also provide clues on how long it takes for the digital asset to reach a new high. The 1H chart shows that the altcoin has been consolidating since early October. It struggles to break through the $3,500 level due to a big number of short positions orders after the recent market collapse.

The $3,500 level is the lower limit of the resistance zone, which ends after the digital asset reaches $3,650. When the cryptocurrency breaks out of this area, an upward movement will begin to the next resistance level near $4,000. On the 1H chart, technical indicators signal a downward movement. The stochastic oscillator shows a strong bearish signal. It fell below the 50 mark. The MACD indicator is also close to forming a bearish intersection, which indicates the weakness of bulls. It seems that traders stick to the wait-and-see approach.



On the 4H chart, the indicators have stabilized. They signal the accumulation phase, which may lead to a possible breakout of $3,500 tonight. However, traders are concerned by the formation of a bearish wedge on the charts, which may indicate a decline. This is why the virtual asset is unlikely to break through the $3,500 mark. It means that the altcoin will remain within the accumulation zone. At the same time, the MACD and the RSI index are moving sideways, which indicates the absence of strong bullish or bearish momentum. However, taking into account the formation of a bearish figure, bears are likely to gain momentum. Stochastic continues to move up. At the same time, it signals the weakness of the bullish momentum and the formed bullish intersection is unlikely to change the situation.



A wedge pattern can signal either bullish or bearish price reversals on the horizontal charts. It indicates that the price has reached local highs followed by a further price drop or trend reversal.

The bearish triangle or descending triangle is a bearish formation on the horizontal charts that anticipates a downside breakout. Ascending triangles are a bullish formation that anticipates an upside breakout.

On the daily chart, ETH/USD went beyond the bearish triangle. Now, the price is trying to consolidate above this zone. however, the dominance of bears can be seen on smaller timeframes. However, the technical indicators show that the consolidation phase is coming to an end. The MACD indicator has entered the red zone. Yet, it continues to grow, as does the stochastic, which has formed a bullish intersection. It is moving above the 80 mark. At the same time, the RSI indicator began a sideways movement along the 60 mark. It signals a possible strengthening of the current bullish momentum. However, in general, technical indicators show a correctional phase that will begin in the near future. After the correctional phase, the price will try to break above $3,500. It may rise on October 6. So, it is recommended to open long traders on ETH with prospects of growth above $4,000.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mexico's third richest person Ricardo Salinas Pliego: buy and hold Bitcoin before it's too late




Ricardo Salinas Pliego, the founder of Grupo Salinas and the third richest person in Mexico, considers Bitcoin to be a unique trading instrument providing ample trading opportunities. He calls the cryptocurrency the golds of the 21st and 22nd centuries.

Salinas believes that fiat means of payment provoke scams and money laundering, while bitcoin has a lot of extraordinary features. According to the billionaire, bitcoin is a real financial instrument regardless of whether "the digital gold" is a currency or not.

According to Salinas, gold and other precious metals cannot serve as means of payment as you cannot use them to actually purchase any goods or services. You need to convert gold into fiat money, and only then make a purchase.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has many exceptional features such as simple transfers, ease of storage without counterparty risks, decentralization, which make Bitcoin the gold of our time.

Ricardo Salinas' capital is estimated at about $16 billion. Besides, he is the owner of Banco Azteca.

The billionaire recommends investors including bitcoin in their investment portfolios and holding it. "The digital gold" is an asset that is recognizable globally, has international value, and is easily traded with high liquidity.

Ricardo Salinas believes that the bitcoin shortage is a key factor that makes "the digital gold" so unique and different from fiat money.

Bitcoin is not profitable for governments, so they will do anything possible to get rid of it. However, they are unlikely to succeed, since bitcoin has already taken a firm position in the financial system.

Governments, the US Federal Reserve, and other financial regulators may claim that bitcoin is illegal, but it will not stop people from buying and holding the cryptocurrency.

Answering the question about what he would keep in the event of a collapse in 30 years, the billionaire said he would ignore any fiat funds or gold due to the storage issues, as it is very problematic to store gold bars.

So, if a global collapse, some kind of financial catastrophe, or political upheavals break out, then it will be much easier to run away with bitcoins than gold bars. Salinas said that bitcoins account for about 10% of his portfolio, and he recommends using this cryptocurrency.

The billionaire added his Banco Azteca would be the first bank in Mexico to accept Bitcoin.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin takes on $50,000 mark; still too early to rejoice


Bitcoin climbed to $50,000 per coin on Tuesday, retracing a growth scenario within the range between support at 48,178.13 and the resistance area of 52,000.18 - 529,29.15.

Is the current growth already enough to assert that the risk of a "dead cat bounce" has passed?

From a technical point of view, in my opinion, it will be possible to talk about this after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance zone of 52,000.18 - 52,929.15. A month ago, the price collapsed from this level drawing two bearish flags in the process of moving into the area of $40,000 per coin.

From the point of view of analyzing the flows of cryptocurrencies, as noted in yesterday's review, the difference between the inflow and outflow of the coin remains negative so far. This means that investors are more and more intent on keeping their cryptocurrency, counting on growth. Whereas, according to the data of previous periods, the "dead cat bounce" (short-term growth before recession) was accompanied by the predominance of inflow over outflow.

There is also a third hopeful argument - an increase in investor activity. According to a weekly report from CoinShares, investors poured $68.7 million into Bitcoin products in the week of October 1. This is the highest figure since April 19. Ether-backed assets brought in $20.2 million, up from $28.9 million in the previous week. Also, according to data from Coinbase, bitcoin and ether increased in value by almost 18% over this period.

The report says that confidence in Bitcoin is growing among investors thanks to recent "compliant statements" from the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve. A significant contribution to this growth was made by the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he did not intend to ban cryptocurrency after China.

Finally, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF can be a strong driver for market growth. And although none of them have been approved yet, some small progress in this direction is observed.

So, the SEC postponed the deadline for the approval of the first exchange-traded bitcoin fund until November 21. This delay gives some hope as the regulator did not issue a negative decision.

Analysts note that the market is beginning to believe that the SEC is really ready to make a positive decision. Therefore, expectations are likely to support the price.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin for October 05 - 06, 2021: sell below $ 50,000 (8/8)

Bitcoin has broken above the short-term resistance trend line and above the $47,000 short-term resistance level. Price is making higher highs and higher lows now as it approaches the $50,000 resistance area.



Blue line - short-term resistance trend line

Red rectangle - horizontal resistance

Black lines - Fibonacci retracements

Bitcoin has retraced more than 50% of the rise from $29,000 to $52,000 and has broken above the short-term downward sloping trend line resistance. Price has formed a higher low at $39,500 and this zone is now important support. Breaking above the red rectangle resistance will be a bullish sign. If this happens we should expect price to reach close to its all time highs. A rejection at current levels if followed by a break below $39,500 will increase chances for a move towards $29,000 and lower. For now, it seems that bulls are regaining control of the trend, confirmation will come with the a push above $52,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021