Cryptocurrency Analysis

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BTC analysis for December 13,.2021 - Potential for another drop

Technical Analysis:



BTCUSD has been trading downside today and I see potential for the downside continuation due to strong down cycle in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong downside cycle in the background, watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

Downside objectives are set at $46,900 and $42,490

Stochastic is showing sideways regime.

Resistance levels are set at $51,000






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Is Bitcoin the "digital gold"?



Bitcoin posted its fourth weekly decline over the weekend, following a short-term rebound triggered by a report showing that accelerating US inflation failed to allay negative sentiment that has recently gripped digital asset markets.



The largest cryptocurrency has long been touted as a hedge against inflation, in part because of its fixed supply.

On Friday, it rose 4.4% to $ 50,101, then fell by about 10% over the week. The coin is hovering around $ 50,000 after a sudden crash last weekend, when it plunged 20% on Saturday.

DeVere Group founder and CEO Nigel Green said: "This is an important threshold and the failure to secure it will likely spook some traders."

Although Bitcoin is down 30% since hitting $ 69,000 on November 10, it is still up about 65% this year.

Meanwhile, Ether, which is also hitting all-time highs last month, also saw a decline over the weekend.

Cryptocurrency proponents have long argued that Bitcoin and other digital assets can act as hedges against fluctuations in other areas of the financial market. As such, 21 million bitcoins will be put into circulation under the computer protocol governing issuance, but that figure is not expected to be reached in the next few decades.

"Bitcoin is still seen as an inflation hedge, especially for younger investors," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co.

Many well-known investors and Wall Street analysts have supported the idea of using cryptocurrencies as a defense against rising prices, and veteran hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones even said in the past that he likes it as a store of wealth. Meanwhile, Michael Sailor of MicroStrategy said the easing of the Fed's inflationary policies helped convince him to invest in Bitcoin.

But others argue that Bitcoin hasn't been around long enough to solidify its inflation-proof image, not to mention it looks too much like a speculative asset and is prone to intermittent disruption.

Noelle Acheson of Genesis Trading stated: "If Bitcoin is 'digital gold' and gold is an inflation hedge, then it follows that Bitcoin is too, right? Unfortunately, there is no evidence to back this up, and even the relationship between inflation and gold has been tenuous over the years. Longer term, however, gold has more than held its value while fiat currencies have declined; Bitcoin could end up doing the same."






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is no longer as formidable as it portrayed



Bitcoin continues to be the most dominant crypto asset at the moment, although its dominance now is not as obvious as it was before.

Panic, anxiety, fear factor, mass sales provoke a collapse of bitcoin's dominance. Ethereum also wants to dethrone Bitcoin from the top spot. Literally in one month, the price of Bitcoin declined by $ 20,000, which provoked its sharp collapse of dominance.

Due to the fall of digital gold, it was possible to observe a bloodbath on the altcoin market. At the same time, the dominance of bitcoin has decreased down to the level of 38%.

The last time such figures could be observed was already in the month of May. Recently, the level of bitcoin dominance has almost always been above 40%.

At the moment, the market capitalization of the crypto market is about $ 2.5 trillion, and bitcoin is about $ 1 trillion. However, after this fall, the capitalization fell to $ 920 billion.

The bitcoin dominance market must be above the 40% mark for the healthy functioning of the crypto market. The factors that significantly lowered the level of dominance of the main crypto-asset were mass sales, as well as the Omicron coronavirus disease.

The Fed also began to say that crypto assets are not a good means to protect against inflation. At the moment, digital gold is trading at a price of about $ 48,000 and, despite everything, occupies a dominant position in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, the dominance of Ethereum is 20%, which is one of the highest indicators up to 2018. Many analysts are confident that in the near future, Ethereum will dethrone Bitcoin from its pedestal due to its innovation and scalability.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 13, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
WikiLeaks is one of the most famous organizations in the world. It is an international non-profit organization dedicated to publishing leaks of news and documents provided by various anonymous sources.

It was founded in 2006 by Julian Paul Assange, an Australian activist, publisher and editor. Assange was arrested in 2019 in London and charged in the United States with conspiracy and espionage.

As WikiLeaks is a non-profit organization, it is supported by donations from individuals or entities that support their cause and activities. However, because they published very confidential and inconvenient information on many issues, a good number of vendors blocked payments to the organization. These include Visa, MasterCard, AmEx and so on.

Therefore, they have turned to the only form of currency that cannot be censored - cryptocurrency.

According to the organization's official website, the options currently available for donating cryptocurrencies to WikiLeaks include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, ZCash, Monero, and Ethereum. As for BTC, the organization received a total of 30.45 BTC, currently worth around $ 1.51 million. At the time of writing this text, the closing balance is slightly below 9 BTC. In addition, the organization received a total of 145.45 ETH, currently worth approximately $ 587,800.

In 2017, founder Julian Assange claimed that WikiLeaks achieved a 50,000% return on Bitcoin after investing in a cryptocurrency in 2010.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading below the key short-term technical resistance located at the level of $53,333 and the market been seen consolidating all weekend long between the levels of $51,545 - $47,205. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $51,913 (Pin Bar high) and $53,333. The momentum is picking up from the oversold conditions, currently hovering around the level of fifty on the RSI (14) indicator. Despite the recent complex and time consuming corrective decline in form of ABCxABCxABC pattern, the larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $56,908
WR2 - $54,309
WR1 - $52,119

Weekly Pivot - $49,669
WS1 - $47,511
WS2 - $44,768
WS3 - $42,652


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of $41,678 and the market is ready to continue the up trend. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $39,474 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $39,000 would be considered as a long-term trend change due to the lower low placement).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD remains in a bearish trend.

XRPUSD is in a bearish trend since the beginning of November when it peaked around $1.34. Price is making lower lows and lower highs since then, trading inside a downward sloping channel. Currently there is no sign of a reversal, price remains vulnerable to more downside.



Red lines - bearish channel

The last 4 trading sessions price has been moving sideways without any real progress to the downside or upside. This is natural after the huge spike in volatility and the sell off that occurred on Saturday December 4th. The market is trying to find its balance. Resistance at $0.89 is important and bulls need at least one daily close above this level in order to hope for a bigger bounce. Support is at $0.80 as bulls have managed to produce daily closings above this level for the last 7 sessions. Breaking below it will be a sign of weakness and more downside to come.







Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Why $3,985-$3,930 is key support area for Ethereum.

Ethereum has been moving mostly sideways in the last 40 days with no real progress to the upside or the downside. Even after the strong sell off two Saturdays ago, price bounced swiftly bounced back above the key support level of $3,985-$3,930.



Green line - horizontal support

Blue line- trend line support

Yellow rectangles- previous tests of horizontal support/resistance

Ethereum has been testing the $3,985-$3,930 zone as resistance or support since August. There is a high frequency of tests and in most cases bulls managed to respect support and not make a Daily close below it. Even after the huge sell off two weeks ago, price did not close below the horizontal support. Price however is also forming lower highs. The descending triangle pattern is another warning signal that if combined with a break below the $3,985-$3,930 zone, we will get a new bearish signal. Next support is found at the blue upward sloping trend line. Breaking below this trend line will increase the chances of a major pull back in Ethereum, maybe towards $3,000.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The main news of the crypto market for December 13.



Analysts continue to believe that the upward trend persists but admit a new fall.

Bitcoin rose slightly on December 11 and 12. However, this growth was so weak that it can not be counted. I still believe that the first wave of a new downward trend is completed and, if this is true, then the construction of a corrective wave 2 or b has begun and will continue at this time. However, the wave pattern will be analyzed a little lower. I just wanted to make it clear from the beginning of the article that a new increase in quotes is expected along the waves. But according to the news, a new decline in bitcoin is expected. This week, the results of the Fed meeting will be summed up and a decision will most likely be made to accelerate the abandonment of the economic stimulus program. Initially, the Fed announced the pace of $ 15 billion per month, but analysts agree that they will be raised in December to $ 20-30 billion. And everyone, as one, believes that this will hit the cryptocurrency market.


Bitcoin may come under pressure after the Fed meeting.

What could happen to the cryptocurrency market if the Fed announces a higher rate of withdrawal from stimulus? This will only mean that in the coming month, the American economy will receive not $ 95 billion, but $ 80-90 billion. Based on this, I believe that a new decline is possible, but it is unlikely to be strong or collapse. Most likely, the dynamics of a further decline in bitcoin (since the downward section of the trend has not yet been completed) will be quite moderate. Thus, nothing will prevent BTC from continuing to build a corrective wave this week. The meetings of the ECB and the Bank of England should not worry crypto investors at all, because no changes in the parameters of monetary policy are expected there.


The IMF warns that bitcoin could be a bubble.

At the same time, a report was published on the IMF website, which characterizes bitcoin. Analysts concluded that the capitalization of bitcoin, which has grown to 2.5 trillion, may indicate both technological innovation and an ordinary "bubble". IMF experts note that after the emergence of a new strain, investors began to invest more often in cryptocurrencies (although bitcoin was only declining at that time). The IMF believes that bitcoin is now overvalued, and its estimates are overestimated. The IMF also offers all cryptocurrencies for payment and investment, to control all companies and entities that deal with cryptocurrencies, as well as to entrust regulation to central banks and securities commissions.



The current upward section of the trend still does not cause any doubts. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like a completed five-wave impulse upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20. The departure of quotes over the past four weeks from the reached highs means the completion not only of the expected wave 5, which turned out to be shortened but also of the entire upward section of the trend. After a decline of $27,000, an increase in quotes would mean the construction of a corrective wave b. Therefore, at this time, the increase in bitcoin quotes may resume within this wave with targets located near the $ 52,077 and $ 55,295 marks, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci from wave a. And after the completion of this wave, the construction of a new descending wave c will begin, the minimum of which should be much lower than the $ 41700 mark. And falling to this mark can change the upward trend to a downward trend.






Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal Ethereum (ETH) on December 13 - 14, 2021: sell below $4,110 (21 SMA)




Ethereum (ETH) is trading below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA. As it is below these moving averages, the short-term outlook remains negative and with an immediate target at 4 / 8 moray around 3,750.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price rebounded from Friday's low of 3,922. Having faced strong resistance at the 21-period simple moving average, it is now retracing and could extend the weakness of ether towards 4/8 of Murray in the next few hours.

If bulls break above the 200 EMA located at 4,255, then the rally could reignite for a test at 4,687 (7/8). For this, there must be a confirmation above 6/8 of Murray (4,375) either with a strong break or a consolidation of the price.

On the contrary, if a pullback occurs towards the 200 EMA or towards the top of the downtrend channel and fails to consolidate above this level, then it will be an opportunity to sell ether as targets at the psychological level of 4,000 and up to 3,750.

However, the eagle indicator remains below the resistance line suggesting that the downward bias is likely to remain intact for the next few days.

Therefore, ETH sellers will push until it reaches the key support at 3,750, then a bearish breakout of a symmetrical triangle formed since early December could be confirmed.

Additionally, a decisive break below 3,750, could fall to 3/8 of a Murray located at 3,437 and if bearish force prevails to the psychological level of 3,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for December 13 - 14, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,375
Resistance (2) 4,276
Resistance (1) 4,173

Support (1) 3,903
Support (2) 3,858
Support (3) 3,750


A trading tip for ETH on December 13 - 14, 2021
Sell below 4,110 (21 SMA) with take profit at 3,750 (4/8) and 3,437 (3/8), stop loss above 4,276.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano remains in a bearish trend.


Cardano remains in a bearish trend after it broke below $1.83 support. Price continues making lower lows and lower highs. Price has now reached $1.31 and is trading below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise from $0.99 to $3.08.



Green line - broken support

Red lines - Bearish channel

The RSI in the Daily chart is at oversold levels. Price is trading near the lower channel boundary. A bounce higher towards $1.40-$1.50 is justified from current levels, however it is very early to talk about major trend reversals. Price has retraced most of the upward movement and this is not a good sign for longer-term bulls. So far there is no bullish divergence signal, implying the downtrend remains intact and we should expect more downside. Resistance by the bearish channel is at $1.90-$2, as long as price is below that level we remain bearish.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bull market is culminating in bitcoin's potential to hit new all-time high or decline below $30,000

After its recent plunge bitcoin has managed to stabilize and is holding steady at $48,000. Another positive aspect is that the market reacted calmly to the news on inflation growth, also indicating the stability of the current consolidation range. However, there are signals that the coin will hold below $50,000 for about a week, accumulating the necessary volumes for growth. Taking this fact into account, it is worth considering likely scenarios for price movement in a bull market or identifying likely targets for a correction if the current growth cycle ends.


Bitcoin at crossroads

The cryptocurrency's positions are quite weak even despite its successful consolidation above $48,000. Bitcoin's further upward movement is limited due to the lack of necessary volumes and investors' fear. The asset crossed the no-return line at $52,000, which made analysts reconsider the technical analysis. Well-known analyst PlanB, who predicted the coin to climb $98,000 in November and $100,000 at the end of 2021, expressed his view. The expert stated that the coin was at a crossroads and could both resume a bull rally and enter a full bull market. I support that view. However, I stick to the bullish scenario, according to which bitcoin is in the embryonic state of the fifth wave of growth, and the current correction was caused by a complicated structure of the 4th wave in a five-wave structure. At the same time, I do not exclude the possibility that the price could go down and a bear market starts.



Positive scenario

In a positive scenario, bitcoin has not hit its high in the current growth cycle yet. It indicates that at least one more wave of growth is expected, which will occur at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. I also back this idea, and I believe that the price of the cryptocurrency still retains the potential to move towards $75,000-$80,000. Considering that in the next week and a half the asset will try to recover above $62,000, I assume that BTC will mostly rise in early January.



Negative scenario

In a negative scenario, bitcoin heads into a full bear market, which historically comes with a correction up to 80% of ATH. This is an extremely negative scenario in which the crypto's downside potential is estimated to be around $14,000. The PlanB analyst believes that a sharp drop in quotations is unlikely as the asset has not hit its high in the current cycle yet. Even with an immediate correction, the market would most likely not allow BTC to fall below $20,000, the high of 2017. Considering $69,000 as the absolute high of the current price movement period, a correction to the $25,000-$30,000 range is possible. However, it is more likely to be around the previous local low at $28,700.



Current situation

As of 2:00 pm, bitcoin is moving in a narrow downward channel of $46,000-$51,200, which could be broken in the near future. This is indicated by the tightening and formation of a triangle pattern with a high chance of being broken upward. Technical indicators of the cryptocurrency confirm this fact: the stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish cross and is starting an upward movement in the bullish zone. It indicates the emergence of upward momentum, and the growth of the relative strength index to the 50 mark, refers to the activity of bulls and the start of the accumulation period with a parallel exit from the channel. In case of a successful break the price has good chances to go towards the Fibo level of 0.236 and to consolidate above the psychological mark of $50,000. With such a scenario the range of $50,000-$60,000 becomes the key one for the third week of December, indicating the movement to the new highs before 2022.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021