Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin's Historic Peak Fueled by Inflation, not ETFs, says JPMorgan


JPMorgan strategists believe that inflation was the most likely reason for Bitcoin's rapid growth to a new all-time high on Wednesday, rather than the launch of ProShares' Bitcoin ETF BITO on NYSE Fidelity on October 19. This means that bitcoin is growing due to access to funds, Tressis chief economist Daniel Lacalle commented Wednesday.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and other bank strategists wrote that the ETF launch is unlikely to attract much new capital to the main cryptocurrency. Rather, the reason, they say, is that investors see bitcoin as a better hedge against inflation than gold. Since the beginning of September, there has been an active movement of funds from gold ETFs to the main cryptocurrency.

Declining Interest in Gold and the Fading Hype around Bitcoin ETFs

According to JPMorgan experts, gold has recently been losing investor confidence due to doubts about its ability to withstand inflation. Investors are increasingly dumping gold in order to buy more bitcoins.

An example of this is the $56 billion SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which has faced massive outflows in the past few months and has already lost $3.6 billion, according to Bloomberg.

JPMorgan noted that in addition to BITO, investors can buy a wide variety of products. The Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) is one of them. The bank's strategists argue that BTCC also had a very good start, but then the hype died down. So, they said, the same could happen to BITO one week after launch.


Influential Investors Support This Idea

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has also previously stated that in the current economic climate, Bitcoin is winning the race against gold. More and more investors are choosing digital currency as a defense against inflation, rather than precious metals.

He added that the world is entering the digitization stage, and therefore digital gold is outperforming the physical version.

Regarding the Bitcoin ETF launched by ProShares, Jones stated that he himself prefers to own physical bitcoins rather than buying in ETFs.


So what are the prospects for Bitcoin now?

The historical maximum for the main cryptocurrency has been broken and this is already good. But now the main thing for the price is to consolidate above this mark. On Tuesday, Bitcoin reached the resistance of 67,044.68 (100 by Fibo Expansion) but was unable to break it. By the time of writing the review, the main cryptocurrency has again approached this border. The breakout of the level of 67,044.68 and consolidation above will open the way for BTCUSD to the next target of 72,240.60 (161.8 by Fibo Expansion).

In the meantime, from a technical point of view, it's too early to exhale. For some time, the main cryptocurrency may continue to consolidate in the range of 62,000-67,000 dollars per bitcoin. But if it doesn't come out of it down, it's already good.

As for growth catalysts, IMHO, it is not so important now whether it was inflation or the launch of the first ETF. Even if JPMorgan is right, the story of inflation is also long-running, and this driver will push large capital into bitcoin for a long time. And launching an ETF will help in this, opening up more opportunities. Therefore, both catalysts are more likely to work in synergy for the continuation of the bull market.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin on October 21, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Bitcoin finally broke above the $6,5000 mark to all-time highs around $67,000 on Wednesday. The crypto currency produced a regious uptrend from March 2020 lows around $40,000 and rallying through the $67,000 highs. Traders are advised to lock in full profits in long positions initiated earlier and remain on the sidelines for a while.

Bitcoin might produce a corrective drop towards the $48,000-49,000 zone at least, before resuming its rally. It is also possible for the crypto to drop towards $40,000 before finding support again. It is suggested to refrain from going short since a meaningful top and a reversal sign is still not there. It is alos possible to hold long positions or book profits and stay on the sidelines.

Bitcoin faces potential resistance now as it hits all-time highs around the $67,000 mark. Strong price support on the daily chart is seen around $40, 000. Price may show bearish divergence on the RSI on he daily chart (not shown here), hence Bitcoin remains vulnerable for a pullback at least.


TRADING PLAN:
Target is to hit above $65, 000. Lock in profits and remain on sidelines until next analysis.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is preparing to rise to the level of $ 70,000


This week has already entered the history of the first cryptocurrency and can get even better. Trading volumes for the first ETF fund in the United States are breaking all records, and the number of institutional investors continues to grow. Meanwhile, Bitcoin managed to strongly break through the absolute maximum line, setting a new record near the $67,000 mark. Today, the optimism in the BTC market may increase many times due to several important announcements that already affect the price movement.

First, we are talking about the American regulator, which approved two more applications to launch an ETF fund on Bitcoin futures. The SEC also gave a go signal for the creation of exchange institutions at the request of Valkyrie Investment and VanEck. Initially, the companies applied to launch a full-fledged bitcoin fund, but after the positive decision of the commission regarding BTC futures, they reformatted the application. Given the record trading volumes for the first day, more excitement is expected among long-term investors. In addition, the launch of the funds coincided with numerous statements about an increase in the rate of inflation, and many entrepreneurs began to speak positively about BTC as a means of hedging risks. For example, billionaire Carl Icahn called coin an excellent means of protection against inflation, and JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs experts agree with him.

All this caused the growth of the institutional audience by 2% in less than one month. With this in mind, we should expect a new period of broad upward movement after a short consolidation cycle. It is expected that the SEC will approve another application for Bitcoin futures tomorrow. The market was very enthusiastic about the launch of funds, due to which the capitalization of the first coin increased to $1.2 trillion, which is an absolute record. It can be recalled that the regulator may approve 5 more applications for the launch of ETF funds for future, and therefore, it is worth carefully monitoring the likely dates of approval of applications and adjusting your longs to the beginning of impulse euphoria in the bitcoin market.

Concluding the topic of ETFs, a problem should also be noted. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler ambiguously spoke about the possible launch of a financial institution on the spot market. The thing is that when approving such an application, the regulator loses control over such a large sector, while the futures market is controlled by a friendly division of the commission. In addition, the CEO of the regulator reiterated that Bitcoin futures are subject to the law on investment companies of the 40th year, unlike a fund on the spot market. All this confirms the theory that the state regulatory body does not plan to launch a full-fledged ETF fund, and the futures analog is the lesser of the evils for the commission.

Despite this, even the SEC could not expect such a rush from the start of the operation of the futures fund. Institutional investors continue to arrive at the BTC market, and experienced players adhere to the strategy. After reports on the cosmic profit on the results of investments in Bitcoin, Tesla's representatives announced the preservation of current balances in the spot market. This can be seen in the company's financial statements and suggests that the carmaker is becoming a full-fledged holder of the main crypto asset. A similar example was followed by all the largest holders of the coin, and many of them continue to accumulate volumes, counting on further growth of the asset.

Meanwhile, BTC/USD pair is confidently moving upward. Bitcoin's price has risen by 4% over the past day, and the increase over the week has increased to 15%. The cryptocurrency has also consolidated above the level of $ 66,000 and remains bullish.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed three bullish candles in a row, which indicates a steady growth of acquired and retained volumes. The digital asset still looks very strong on the technical charts: the MACD received an additional local bullish impulse and continued to rise sharply. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish intersection and continues to grow, following the relative strength index. All the main metrics point to further growth of the cryptocurrency after a short period of consolidation. The asset met increased resistance in the area of $66,000-$67,000, and then, with an increase in selling pressure, a local rebound to the support zone at $60,000 may occur. Currently, this level can be considered an excellent entry point in BTC, which can already reach $90,000 this month.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin hits new all-time high




Bitcoin skyrocketed to nearly $ 67,000 on Wednesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $ 64,888.99. The main reason was the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF in the US - a groundbreaking moment for the crypto industry.



"This is the beginning of the normalization of digital currency," said Webull CEO Anthony Denier. "There's a lot of excitement in the space, and deservedly so," he added.

The increase follows the latest signs of cryptocurrency legitimacy.

After eight years of rejecting proposed Bitcoin ETFs, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) to begin trading on Tuesday. It attracted the second largest volume on the first day of any ETF.

But rallies like this usually end up with huge declines. For example, following similar moves leading to the launch of Bitcoin futures in 2017 and the market debut of Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) this April, Bitcoin fell more than 20%.






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 21, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
When the first U.S. futures-based ETF debuted on the NYSE, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission explained why the regulator allows Bitcoin futures ETFs but not Bitcoin spot ETFs.

In a TV interview, SEC chairman Gary Gensler reiterated that his agency "should be technology neutral but not politically neutral," adding:

"What we are trying to do is bring the projects into the area of investor protection. Bitcoin futures were overseen by our sister agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC]."

Answering the question why the SEC approved Bitcoin futures ETFs but not Bitcoin spot ETFs, Gensler noted that he would not comment on any particular application or project, explaining:

"You have a product here that has been overseen by the US federal regulator, CFTC for four years, and is wrapped in something that falls under our jurisdiction called the Investment Company Act of 1940."

He stressed that Bitcoin is "still a highly speculative asset class, and the community should understand that there is the same aspect of volatility and speculation underneath it."

ETF Proshares Bitcoin Strategy, ticker "BITO", started trading on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). "The fund seeks to provide capital growth primarily through managed exposure to BTC futures."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new ATH located at the level of $66,974 before the pull-back towards $64,050. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $62,888, but the corrective cycle might extend even towards the key short-term technical support located at $53,331 if the corrective wave of higher degree starts. Please keep an eye on this level as any violation of this level will be negative for bulls. However, so far, the up trend is intact and the target level for the current up wave is located around $74,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $72,401
WR2 - $67,700
WR1 - $63,611

Weekly Pivot - $58,705
WS1 - $54,810
WS2 - $49,233
WS3 - $45,621


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $64,920 (the previous AT level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 21, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies rose to record levels on Wednesday, ending a dramatic, month-long recovery that confirmed the bullish narrative for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Crypto Capitalization, an important exponent for the overall health of the digital asset economy, has reached over $ 2.63 trillion. This is an increase of 5.9% in the last 24 hours.

The shopping frenzy in the market took Bitcoin to a new record as the flagship cryptocurrency hit $ 67,016.50 today. Meanwhile, Ethereum broke the $ 4,000 level for just the second time since May. With the exception of stablecoins, every cryptocurrency ranked in the top ten market capitalization saw profits.

The new high in market capitalization marks an important milestone for digital assets after a several-month correction over the summer that threatened the bullish narrative. During the low point of the summer correction, the cryptocurrency market capitalization fell below $ 1.2 trillion.

The US Bitcoin ETF approvals appear to have sparked a BTC rally and the wider crypto market, though a stubborn momentum has been building up for months. The favorable macroeconomic environment, strong foundations in the chain and technical confirmation of the July bottom have helped ensure Bitcoin's growth in the past three months.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the level of $4,000 and made a new higher high at the level of $4,242. The rally had ended with a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of it, so a some kind of correction might be expected soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,031 and $3,971. The momentum is strong and positive, so the bulls might risk to push the prices towards the level of $4,000 before any meaningful correction will occur, but any breakout below $3,677 will be a negative in the short-term.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,596
WR2 - $4,262
WR1 - $3,971

Weekly Pivot - $3,631
WS1 - $3,394
WS2 - $3,073
WS3 - $2,777


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for BTC on October 21 - 22, 2021: Buy above 63,074 (SMA 21)



On October 20, the BTC price reached an all-time high at 66,938, which has also led the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to a new all-time high above $2.60 trillion. This is a sign that in the short term, it could continue to rise to the psychological level of 70,000.

Bitcoin rose as a result of the successful debut of the exchange-traded fund ProShares's Bitcoin Strategy (BITO), which was the engine of optimism in the cryptocurrency market and gave BTC momentum to near 67,000. The trading volume of the ProShares ETF on the first day of the launch exceeded one billion dollars. Some analysts see how the market has assimilated this news and believe that before the end of the year, BTC could reach 85,000.

On October 19, Bitcoin broke the 2/8 Murray resistance at 62,500 and rose to a new high near 67,000. This level coincides with the top of the bullish channel formed on the 4H chart.

After having reached the level of 67,000 and touched the top of the bullish channel, a technical correction is observed and accumulates a loss of almost 5%. For this reason, we believe that this correction can give it a new upward impulse. BTC may reach the level of 3/8 Murray. It is recommended to wait for a technical bounce around the 21 SMA located at 63.074.

BTC continues to trade within its bullish channel formed since October 4. It is expected to continue to rise in the coming days. The key levels of support to be able to buy can be located at the SMA of 21 (63,074) and 2/8 of Murray (62,500).

The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal. The bullish momentum is likely to be strong until the oscillator reaches the resistance level. BTC could continue with its rally up to the resistance of 68,750 and up to the psychological level of 70,000.

Our forecast is bullish only if BTC keeps trading above 2/8 Murray. This zone has turned into strong support. Any bounce from this level will be considered as an opportunity to p[en long positions. On the contrary, a daily close below 62,000 will be the start of a strong correction towards the support of 1/8 murray around 56,250.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 21 - 22, 2021
Resistance (3) 68,750
Resistance (2) 67,425
Resistance (1) 65,428

Support (1) 63,516
Support (2) 60,889
Support (3) 58,631


A trading tip for BTC for October 21 - 22, 2021
Buy above 63,074 or if rebound at 62,500 with take profit at 64,768 and 68,750 (3/8), stop loss below 61,000.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin has renewed its record highs: the $70,000 milestone will soon be overcome, this is favored by the hype and the fundamental background



Today is a historic day, marked by a new record high for bitcoin. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it has happened. Bitcoin continues to drift on a bullish wave and today it officially renews its all-time highs.

Digital gold has broken its April high of $64,800, and today it is already trading at a price of $66,800.

Now bitcoin is aimed at a milestone of $70,000, if you look at the hype of the bull market, then in the very near future the bar will be overcome.

The wave of hype and the fundamental background of bitcoin make it clear that this is only the beginning of a large and long rally.

Many analysts and even critics have already recognized that bitcoin is a real indestructible force. It managed to overcome Chinese repression, the imposition of bans on it in Turkey, to get out and go up in spite of everyone.

For most, this event has become a real happy day, as it is a real victory over the rotten and outdated fiat system, over corruption.

Bitcoin is a real freedom, it is the right to choose.

At the beginning of the month, bitcoin was trading at $40,000, it was preceded by a bearish September.

However, the bulls took the situation into their own hands, and in October bitcoin showed an incredible rise, first on the wave of rumors, and then after the announcement of the creation of the first ever Bitcoin ETF.

Digital gold has soared to its highs, and many analysts are confident that the $70,000 milestone will already be conquered this month.

The supply of bitcoins on many crypto exchanges has fallen to three-year lows, now the total bullish mood in the crypto market is clearly visible.

Many experienced holders, many companies are already in huge profits, this also applies to Tesla and Microstrategy, which has already made profits of more than $3 billion, Tesla's profit was more than $1 billion.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple buyers in full control


Ripple was rallying at the time of writing and it seemed determined to approach and reach fresh highs. The price action signaled that the downside is limited and that the price could jump higher.

XRP/USD registered 6.06% growth from 1.0871 today's low to 1.1530 today's high. Technically, the crypto pair challenges a dynamic resistance. The price of Ripple went up by 3.29% in a week.

As you already know, the price of Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high of 67,016.50 today. BTC/USD's growth forced the altcoins to grow as well.


XRP/USD BREAKOUT ATTEMPT



Ripple registered a false breakdown with great separation below the 38.2% retracement level on Sunday signaling that the downside is limited. It has managed to come back above the upper median line (uml) and now is pressuring the outside sliding line (sl).

Making a valid breakout through the sliding line (sl) could signal further growth. Registering a new higher high, a bullish closure above 1.1860 Saturday's high could really announce a larger growth.



RIPPLE OUTLOOK
Failing to stabilize under the 38.2% retracement level or below the upper median line (uml) followed by a valid breakout through the sliding line (sl) could represent a long opportunity with major targets at 1.3499 and 1.4162 levels.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Two Interim Milestones Towards $100,000 After Updating All-Time Highs


Bitcoin has updated its historical maximum on Wednesday. This is a good sign: ETF approval, so far only two, has proven to be a very strong driver for the market.

Investors did not "sell the fact," and at the time of this writing, the main cryptocurrency has reached $67,000 per coin.

What are the targets for BTCUSD now?

Well, it looks like fears about a possible correction and an unfinished bearish cycle are behind and the next mark that looms ahead is $100,000 per coin. And if you remember how the 2017 high was updated and how quickly bitcoin grew from 20,000 to 64,000, we can assume that the main cryptocurrency will reach the new target quickly.

And when the historical maximum is updated and only the sky is higher (there are no limit players), the targets are tentative. I suggest taking advantage of the unrealized levels of the old Fibo Expansion, which was stretched back during the $64,000 hike in April. And as soon as the need arises, we will change it to a new one.

So, now the nearest technical targets are at the levels 67,044.68 (100 by Fibo Expansion) and 72,240.60 (161.8 by Fibo Expansion). The first one is almost reached, so locally we can wait for either a cautious correction or a breakout and further to the Moon.


ETFs are just the beginning

An all-time high was updated against the backdrop of the listing of the ProShares ETF on the NYSE.

The share price of the first US Bitcoin ETF rallied after its debut on Tuesday. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, under the ticker "BITO," reportedly jumped 4.8% to close at $41.94.

This could mark the beginning of competition between firms looking to offer Bitcoin ETFs to their clients. According to a source familiar with the situation, Invesco is not far behind in popularity among regulators. However, just a day before listing the ProShares ETF, it announced that it would not proceed with the launch.


Monday, October 25 - VanEck Listing

The US Securities and Exchange Commission appears to have approved the exchange-traded fund Bitcoin Strategy of asset manager VanEck. Trading is expected to begin on October 25th.

In an October 20 statement filed with the SEC, VanEck announced that the public offering of its Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which offers access to the crypto asset through future contracts, will begin "as soon as possible" after the effective date - October 23. This suggests that the company can list its shares on the stock exchange as early as Monday, October 25th.

Unlike ETFs that offer direct access to cryptocurrency, which have not been approved by the SEC, the VanEck ETF will provide access through futures contracts.

VanEck first applied for a bitcoin futures ETF in August and may now follow the example of ProShares' launch on the New York Stock Exchange.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021