Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Lawmakers in Brazil received support to regulate the cryptocurrency market following allegations of fraud at Atlas Quantum, Zero10 and Trader Group last year. In February, the fruit of these activities appeared. The media reported that two large cryptocurrency exchanges based in Brazil have closed their operations due to the threat of high fines and direct effects of the regulations.

Acesso Bitcoin was one of the exchanges that voluntarily closed down. Its co-founder Pedro Nunes was quoted by a cryptographic portal said:

"After the introduction of these regulations by the Federal Tax Office, we noticed a significant decrease in trading volume. We also believe that the market has cooled down for smaller exchanges," he says.

Latoex, another cryptographic exchange from Brazil, has similar problems. Above the company hangs a fine of 100,000 Brazilian realities if it fails to comply with the suspension order issued by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission.

Because Brazil does not currently have a dedicated right to deal with cryptocurrencies, all exchanges fall under the scope of normative instruction No. 1888 issued by the Federal Revenue Department. All companies carrying out cryptographic transactions in Brazil must report them or be fined between $ 120 and $ 360.

Both chambers of the Brazilian National Congress are examining proposals to regulate the national cryptographic industry. Meanwhile, the Senate is reviewing two other laws, PL 3825/2019 and PL 3949/2019. Since February 2020, no specific legislation has been introduced to establish rules for the cryptocurrency market in Brazil.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has rallied to the level of $10,000 again and made a new local high at the level of $10,227. It means that the 61% Fibonacci retracement has been clearly violated and currently the market is consolidating the recent gains around the level of $10,000, which is the nearest technical support for the price. If, however, the bulls will decide to continue the rally, then the next target is seen at the very top at the level of $10,452.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,039
WR2 - $10,715
WR1 - $10,112

Weekly Pivot - $9,845
WS1 - $9,424
WS2 - $8,941
WS3 - $8,335


Trading Recommendations:
The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,433 is clearly broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A successful tokenization attempt may lead to major changes in Russia's cryptocurrency legislation.

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) today announced the end of pilot Blockchain tokenization using a platform developed by Nornickel as part of its regulatory sandbox. The bank then proposed to change Russian law on digital assets to bring it into tokenization platforms.

The platform is open to all organizations and allows them to issue hybrid tokens supported by a resource basket. It is said that this technology expands financing opportunities for enterprises, while also providing new investment opportunities for users.

The head of the CBR fintech department, Ivan Zimin, noted that it was one of the largest projects supported by the sandpit. He was particularly excited about the possibility of issuing hybrid tokens, believing that they could "quickly adapt to the requirements of companies and users."

Zimin also revealed that the bank proposed a regulatory change based on the results of the pilot project:

"Following the results of the pilot program, the Central Bank of Russia proposed amendments to the draft federal law" On digital financial assets "that are required to integrate and develop these solutions in the growing market of digital assets," he said.

The platform was developed by Nornickel, one of the largest mining companies in the world. The corporation previously developed a palladium tokenization platform and began testing the digital asset trading platform in December 2019.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the short-term trendline resistance located at the level of $266 and shoots up towards the recent swing high. Nevertheless, the high has not been hit yet as the rally was capped around the level of $285.55. The local counter-trend corrective cycle might start any time soon and the first target for bears is seen at the level of $275.41 - $272.02 zone.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $358.03
WR2 - $324.90
WR1 - $285.60

Weekly Pivot - $248.62
WS1 - $213.91
WS2 - $176.19
WS3 - $141.12


Trading Recommendations:
The wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. The current move up might be a wave 3 in developing in the overall long-term Elliott wave scenario and so far the top at the level of $288.01 might be the wave 1 of the overall wave 3.








Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 02.19.2020 - Resistance on the test, potential for the downside rotation towards the level of $9.828

Industry news:


An $8 million ICO project is shutting down, citing regulatory uncertainty and difficulties in onboarding new users.

Content-sharing platform Contents Protocol announced Wednesday that following numerous attempts to turn its business into a success, the firm is closing down and refunding investors as much as $7.5 million-worth of the ether (ETH) raised in its initial coin offering (ICO).

"We inform you that due to continued regulatory uncertainties in cryptocurrency and lack of business prospect, we have decided to end our project," reads an announcement that has now wholly replaced Contents Protocol's website.

Contents Protocol was a relative latecomer to the ICO boom, only completing its crowd sale in December 2018. It was created as a subsidiary of WATCHA Play, a popular Korean streaming service, and was designed to incentivize content sharing by effectively rewarding users who rated and reviewed films and TV featured on the platform with its native CPT token.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.128. Anyway, I see potential for the downside due to rejection of the resistance and the outside bearish candle on the hourly time-frame.

Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the support at $10.028. Downward targets are set at the price of $9.828 and $9.614.

MACD slow line did turn to the downside and it is confirms downside rotation.

Resistance levels are seen at the price of $10.280 and $10.500

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $9.828 and $9.614.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD on 20 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to the published announcement, Coinbase became the main member of Visa. This will allow you to issue debit cards without relying on third parties.

Membership is an evolution of Coinbase's current relationship with Visa, under which the cryptocurrency exchange offers a Visa based debit card. The card called Coinbase enables customers living in the European Union or the European Community to spend a wide range of cryptocurrencies on purchases.

Although the card itself can operate globally, it cannot be ordered by a person living outside the served areas. Coinbase reports that the card is most commonly used in the UK, followed by Italy, Spain and France.

Through direct integration with Visa, Coinbase promises to be able to provide additional services and support more markets. The company ensures that it is the first "cryptocurrency company" that has become the main member.

The current version of the card was issued in 2019 in the United Kingdom, however, Coinbase previously supported the Shift cryptographic card, which drew funds from the user's balance. The service was launched in 2015.

Like many other cryptographic cards, Shift suffered greatly from the withdrawal of the WaveCrest Visa license at the beginning of 2018. The company was an effective publisher of almost all debit cards serving cryptocurrency users. Shift finally closed at the beginning of 2019.

The new version is supported by Paysafe Financial Services Ltd., a consumer product company such as Skrill and PaysafeCard. It is not clear when and how the transition to Coinbase cards will take place.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a big shakeout candle to the downside and the price has hit the level of $9,248 before any bounce has occurred. Currently, the market is trading in a narrow zone between the levels of $9,448 - $9,622, but it does not look like the bears are done. The momentum is weak and negative and there is no indication of any bullish reversal coming. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,123 and the immediate resistance is located at the level of $9,645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,039
WR2 - $10,715
WR1 - $10,112

Weekly Pivot - $9,845
WS1 - $9,424
WS2 - $8,941
WS3 - $8,335


Trading Recommendations:
The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,433 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The South Korean technology giant Samsung recently unveiled its latest smartphone series, the Galaxy S20, at the Unpacked 2020 event in San Francisco.

Although the main function is undoubtedly the new camera, according to official marketing materials the phone will also improve in the integrated Blockchain security features introduced a year ago in the Galaxy S10.

After extensive details about the new camera and a brief mention of 5G, battery life and capacity, Samsung highlights the safety features of new phones. They are based on the Knox platform, a security solution that stores private keys in a secure, isolated area.

"We've created a secure processor designed to protect your Blockchain PIN, password, pattern and private key. When combined with the Knox platform, security is introduced into every part of the phone, from hardware to software. So private data remains private," says Samsung.

After presenting the Knox platform on the Galaxy S10 last February, Samsung developed its mobile Blockchain offer with the release of the programming kit in July 2019. It included the Samsung Blockchain Keystore toolkit that stores users' private keys.

In the same month, PundiX announced that it had integrated its XWallet application with Samsung's Blockchain ecosystem, enabling users to connect the application with the Samsung Blockchain wallet. Then Samsung added Bitcoin support to its Blockchain Keystore, as well as several other improvements. Previously, he officially supported only Ethereum.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has tested the short-term trendline support from the upside after the sudden reversal from the level of $285. Moreover, the swing high has not been hit yet as the last rally was capped around the level of $285.55. The local counter-trend corrective cycle might continue any time soon and the first target for bears is seen at the level of $238.68 - $235.62 zone. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $358.03
WR2 - $324.90
WR1 - $285.60

Weekly Pivot - $248.62
WS1 - $213.91
WS2 - $176.19
WS3 - $141.12


Trading Recommendations:
The wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. The current move up might be a wave 3 in developing in the overall long-term Elliott wave scenario and so far the top at the level of $288.01 might be wave 1 of the overall wave 3.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 02.20.2020 - Crash on the BTC as we expected, our both downwarrd targets are met but potential for even more bigger drop and test of $9.060

Industry news:
Attachment 2326

Brendan Blumer, the CEO of Block.one – the publisher of EOS, has said that Bitcoin isn't money and that it never will be. However, he believes that it's the "next generation of gold." His tweets came as a response to Peter Schiff, who once again bashed Bitcoin.

Blumer has been consistent in his views of Bitcoin. He has previously said that it shares core values with gold, as well as supply integrity. Moreover, he also believes that "anyone egregiously attacking one in favor of the other is undermining both, while highlighting their own insecurities in regards to their chose favorite."

Indeed, many people have compared Bitcoin to Gold in the past. One of them was the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. He said that Bitcoin is "a store of value; it's a speculative store of value, like gold."


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. Both my targets at $9.828 and $9.614 have been reached but there is still room for further downside. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next main target at the price of $9.060.

Watch for potential downside rotation if you see bear continuation pattern like bear flag on hourly or 4H time-frame. The downward target is set at the price of $9.060.

MACD oscillator is showing new momentum down, which is sign that strong sellers are active on the market.

Resistance levels are set at the price of $9.680 and $9.730

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $9.260 and $9.060.







Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
In Sweden, testing of the e-krona has begun, bringing it closer to the proper issuance of the central bank's digital currency (CBDC). The pilot program will run for a year, until February 2021.

The blockchain-based currency would fuel conventional payments and banking activities nationwide. Instead of swiping a credit card or spending cash, daily transactions can switch to Blockchain.

CBDC is currently a hot topic, and Sweden is the second country (after the Bahamas) to reveal what appeared to be a real, working national cryptocurrency. The Bahamas launched the CBDC pilot program in December and is planning full implementation in the second half of 2020.

China has announced that it is developing its own CBDC, but current events are not as consistent as in the case of Sweden and Bahamas.

The launch of CBDC in Sweden seems to match Swedish innovation - the country is already one of the most cashless societies in the world.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair keeps trading in a narrow zone between the levels of $9,448 - $9,704, but it does not look like the bears are done, so the downtrend might resume any time now. The momentum is weak and negative and there is no indication of any bullish reversal coming. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,123 and the immediate resistance is located at the level of $9,645.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,039
WR2 - $10,715
WR1 - $10,112

Weekly Pivot - $9,845
WS1 - $9,424
WS2 - $8,941
WS3 - $8,335


Trading Recommendations:
The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,433 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 21 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Governments around the world face difficult choices when it comes to cryptocurrencies: regulate them strictly and risk losing economic benefits, or do nothing and be exposed.

According to a note issued by Executive Vice President Dombrovskis on behalf of the European Commission, the Libra association did not answer the questions asked by the EU. As a result, all the information provided by Facebook "remains insufficient to establish the exact nature of Libra and hence its relationship with existing EU law."

However, Dombrovskis also stated that the Commission "is ready to act quickly" when it comes to exploiting the potential of cryptography by establishing rules and supervision. This position confirms their declaration of December 5 to introduce a policy for stablecoins and monitor all risks to the financial stability of the region.

Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook president, spoke to the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on October 13 last year. Lawmakers have expressed similar concerns as the European Commission, citing Zuckerberg's vague responses regarding the digital currency, which said it actually doesn't know if Libra will work.

Governmental authorities in both the United States and the EU are working to better understand cryptocurrencies. The Commission has launched an open public consultation that will be available until March 19, while the US Internal Tax Service is preparing for the cryptocurrency summit on March 3.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keeps testing the short-term trendline support from the upside after the sudden reversal from the level of $285. The market did it three times already, but the bears were too weak to break through and close a H4 candle below the trendline. Moreover, the swing high has not been hit yet as the last rally was capped around the level of $285.55. The local counter-trend corrective cycle might continue any time soon and the first target for bears is seen at the level of $238.68 - $235.62 zone. The weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $358.03
WR2 - $324.90
WR1 - $285.60

Weekly Pivot - $248.62
WS1 - $213.91
WS2 - $176.19
WS3 - $141.12


Trading Recommendations:
The wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. The current move up might be a wave 3 in developing in the overall long-term Elliott wave scenario and so far the top at the level of $288.01 might be wave 1 of the overall wave 3.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 02.25.2020 - The expected drop just started, watch for selling opportuniteis with main target at $9.000

Industry news:


Financial regulators seem to be tightening the bolts on cryptocurrencies, considering crime and illegal activities the only worthy use-case for them.

Globenewswire spread the word that two companies – NIGMA Conseil from France together with the AIT (Austrian Institute of Technology) – are teaming up to increase crypto and blockchain forensics. The latter is the biggest research and tech organization in Austria owned by the government.


Technical anlaysis:
BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the BTC tested the level of $9.346 and almost reached our yesterday's target at $9.265. There is still potential for the downside movement and test of the downside targets and supports at $9.265, $9.053 and $8.890.

I would watch for selling opportunities on the rallies using the intraday frames 15/30 minutes for better timing. The decline was caused due to fail test of the Pitchfork Median line and lack of buyers around $10.000

Resistance levels are set at the price of $9.670 and $10.000

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $9.265, $9.053 and $8.890.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The New Jersey legislature is now considering a new bill that would require cryptocurrency companies to obtain the appropriate operating license.

On February 20, Yvonne Lopez proposed a law on digital technologies and Blockchain technology. The Act introduces new requirements for companies dealing with virtual currencies and creates consumer-friendly security, requiring cryptographic companies to disclose their legally registered names, anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing (ATF) policies, and their licensing history and legality to the Banking Department and New Jersey State Insurance.

Although the largest Bitcoin growth occurred over three years ago, there were no state cryptocurrency regulations in New Jersey. Unlicensed cryptographic operators had to be tried at federal level through the Department of Justice. Lopez emphasized the need for local solutions to these problems:

"People see and hear about [Bitcoin] in their daily lives, but most are not entirely sure what it is. We need to take steps to protect consumers who want to invest in cryptocurrencies while enabling the industry to grow further in New Jersey," he says.

The Act also requires cryptographic companies to disclose their terms for consumer accounts and their protection by the Federal Deposit Insurance Cooperation (FDIC), as do traditional bank account holders. Each applicant would have to provide a fee schedule and any information regarding the risks associated with investing in digital assets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The local counter-trend corrective cycle on the ETH/USD pair has hit the first target for bears seen at the level of $238.68 - $235.62 zone. The weak and negative momentum supports the bearish outlook as the bears are about to test the key short-term technical support located between the levels of $225.12 - $229.81. The fear of coronavirus is spreading across the financial markets and the cryptocurrency market is involved as well, together with stocks and risky currencies.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $334.89
WR2 - $309.29
WR1 - $291.76

Weekly Pivot -$264.76
WS1 - $245.87
WS2 - $220.22
WS3 - $202.34


Trading recommendations:
The wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. The current move up might be a wave 3 in developing in the overall long-term Elliott wave scenario and so far the top at the level of $288.01 might be wave 1 of the overall wave 3.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020