Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 26, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari will officially introduce the Central Bank's Digital Currency (CBDC), eNaira.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has published a document confirming its intention to introduce eNaira after a previous unsuccessful attempt on October 1. According to eNaira design document, CBN is now considered ready for Nigerian CBDC implementation.

CBN is working on a global cryptocurrency that will be used as a means of payment and custody, as well as a replacement for cash.

The bank in its own statement downplayed the risk of not meeting the deadline. Rather, he emphasized the importance of getting things right the first time and how this contributed to the long-term success of digital currencies. CBN stressed that instead of rushing to release a digital currency that has not yet obtained all the necessary approvals, a good start is needed.

The bank has published a document outlining the eNaira Design Principles along with an overview of what is expected of the Nigerian digital currency. Both documents are available on the bank's website in English as well as in Hausa and Yoruba.

According to CBN, instead of focusing all its efforts on getting eNairy on time, the bank focused on designing the token. The central bank said these key facts should reassure Nigerians that eNaira, which will be available to offline users, has been carefully planned and prepared for launch.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair had bounced from the technical support seen at the level of $59,561 and broke above the local technical resistance seen at $62,898. The next target for bulls is the technical resistance located at $63,966 and $64,920. The ultimate target for bulls is seen at the last ATH located at $66,974 and above. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC. The larger time frame trend is up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $72,680
WR2 - $69,750
WR1 - $64,343

Weekly Pivot - $61,785
WS1 - $57,070
WS2 - $54,248
WS3 - $49,247


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $66,974 (the previous ATH level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 26, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Despite Russia's adoption of the first cryptocurrency law in January 2021, the country's cryptocurrency market is still largely unregulated and associated with a lot of uncertainty, according to a local industry supporter.

Yuri Prypaczkin, head of the Russian Association of Cryptoindustry and Blockchain (RACIB), argued that the existing Russian cryptocurrency laws are nothing more than "half measures" that have nothing to do with system solutions.

In an interview with a local news agency, Prypachkin referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has issued multiple cryptocurrency regulations over the past four years. The director stressed that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen from around $ 200 billion in 2017 to the current $ 2.7 trillion, but local lawmakers have essentially done nothing to capture this value.

"Russia has done absolutely nothing to regulate the local cryptocurrency market, which accounts for 10% of the global cryptocurrency market," Pripachkin said.

He added that the size of the Russian cryptocurrency market is comparable to the annual federal budget revenue of $ 270 billion.

Pripachkin argued that Russia's Digital Financial Assets Act provides the legal basis for crypto in a broad sense, but does not define major industry terms such as smart contracts, nor does it regulate activities such as mining, issuing and taxing cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair had bounced from the technical support seen at the level of $3,971 and tested the local technical resistance seen at $4,243. There was no breakout to the upside yet as the next target for bulls is seen at the last ATH located at $4,369 and above. The positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH and the larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,099
WR2 - $4,706
WR1 - $4,412

Weekly Pivot - $4,017
WS1 - $3,701
WS2 - $3,313
WS3 - $2,969


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum on its way towards fresh all-time highs!


Ethereum increased as high as 4,257.55 today after invalidating a corrective phase. Now it stands at 4,206.29 level far above 3,964.00 yesterday's low. In the short term, it has decreased a little after failing to reach the 4,380.64 all-time high and after the price of Bitcoin retreated.

ETH/USD is up by 1.61% in the last 24 hours and by 9.65% in the last 7-days. The bias is bullish as the crypto is trapped within an up channel. The price action signaled that the downside is limited and that the bulls could push the price higher. Bitcoin's growth should help Ethereum to approach and reach new highs.


ETH/USD DOWNSIDE INVALIDATED!


Ethereum has found support right below 4,025.00 former high and under the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml). Its failure to stabilize under 4,044.27 weekly pivot point signaled strong upside pressure.

It could extend its growth as long as it stays within the up channel's body. In the short term, we cannot exclude a temporary decline. It could come back to test and retest the immediate support levels before jumping higher.


ETHEREUM OUTLOOK!
Ethereum is bullish, it could resume its growth as long as it stays above the uptrend line. The immediate upside target is seen at the first warning line (wl1). 4,380.64 all-time high stands as a major upside obstacle, target.

A minor consolidation after the current rally could bring new long opportunities. A new higher high, a valid breakout above the warning line (wl1), and above 4380.64 all-time high could confirm a larger upwards movement.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elon Musk reveals investment on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler wants to regulate the DeFi industry


Bitcoin is now trading in a tight channel after hitting record highs last week. Similarly, Ethereum fell, albeit a little, after climbing beyond $ 4,200.



Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to a Twitter user asking how much new Shiba Inu coin he had. He answered that he only bought Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin, which resulted in a 15% drop in SHIB. Ether and Bitcoin, meanwhile, did not react in any way.

Musk's statements on cryptocurrencies are valid only if they are applied to "empty" tokens and altcoins, which, in general, do not represent anything interesting for the real industry and its development. In fact, after his market manipulation last spring, many traders stopped taking his posts seriously.

On a different note, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler spoke yesterday, addressing the nascent decentralized finance (DeFi) industry. He said it is one of the most innovative areas in cryptography, but it does not mean that it will be able to avoid regulation.

DeFi is an umbrella term for a network of decentralized, non-storage financial protocols focused on lending, revenue growth, crypto derivatives and other products. It allows regular users to participate in the sprawling financial system without the need for any third-party intermediaries such as banks and other financial institutions.



It is not surprising that Gensler wants to regulate this area as he already mentioned before that a number of DeFi projects may fall under the purview of regulators. In his opinion, it is now very important to pay attention to the issues of financial stability and public security. He pointed out months ago that many DeFi platforms are rife with unregistered securities.

Gensler also talked about stablecoins, which are pegged 1: 1 to real currencies such as dollar and euro. When asked if those should be regulated in the same way banking is now regulated, Gensler admitted that the SEC is still discussing the issue. Nevertheless, he suggested that since there is a lot of speculative activity in the market, it is best to take everything within the framework of regulation and investor protection.


Technical analysis on Bitcoin
A lot currently depends on $ 63,250 because a breakout could lead to a further rise to $ 66,450 and jump to $ 68,000 and $ 70,000. But if the quote drops below $ 59,500, Bitcoin will slump to $ 54,444 and $ 50,930.


Technical analysis on Ethereum
A lot currently depends on $ 4,185 because climbing above it will result in a further increase to $ 4,367, $ 4,500 and $ 4,750. But if the quote drops to $ 3,950 and below, Ethereum could decline to $3,680 and $3,405.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto traders withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges



Bitcoin started to adjust after updating its all-time highs. Currently, its price has fallen to the Senkou Span B line at the four-hour timeframe. It can be recalled that this is the strongest line of the Ichimoku indicator. However, sellers failed to break through this line, which increases the probability of new growth in digital gold. At the same time, Bitcoin went below the upward trend line within the framework of the same correction, which already speaks in favor of a stronger correction than we have now. And since the price continues to be inside the Ichimoku cloud, then it actually all boils down to which border the price will exit through. If the lower border is surpassed, then, at least, the correction will continue, and the target will be the level of $ 56,500. If the quotes consolidate above the level of $ 64,700 once again, then the probability of a new BTC growth will grow even stronger.

It is worth noting that now is still a favorable time for BTC growth – three global factors speak in favor of this at once. The first is US high inflation. As already known, many investors consider the first cryptocurrency as a means of hedging inflation. Many investors and billionaires think so. Therefore, they provide the demand for bitcoin. The second is the QE economic stimulus program in the United States. It continues to function in the same volumes, which means that money continues to flow into the American economy, settling on the stock and cryptocurrency market. The third is the "HYIP", which has been formed by Bitcoin in the last couple of months. The cryptocurrency has grown from $40,746 to $67,000 in just three weeks. With such strong growth, many small traders also wanted to join the "bullish" trend in order to make money on it. In this case, Bitcoin has a good chance of continuing to grow, and there are no sell signals yet.

On another note, Bitcoins worth $ 2.3 billion were withdrawn from the Binance cryptocurrency exchange in just one day. This suggests that their owners are not going to sell coins in the near future, which, in turn, speaks of their expectations of further growth. In other words, the supply of bitcoin on exchanges is currently decreasing, which naturally increases its value. Therefore, at least, bitcoin can at least continue to grow until the end of this year with the target of $ 100,000 per coin, which has already been voiced by a huge number of experts.

It is only suggested to sell the cryptocurrency if there are clear and strong sell signals. After November 3, when the Fed meeting is held, the situation on the markets may change slightly, but only if the American regulator announces the decision to wind down QE. In this case, the flow of money into the economy will begin to decline, and inflation will fall in the long run. These two factors can force investors to take profits on purchases of cryptocurrency.



There is still an upward trend in the four-hour timeframe, as it has not yet able to consolidate below the Ichimoku cloud. So, to be able to open short positions, it is necessary to wait for the price to at least consolidate below the Ichimoku cloud. In turn, new purchases will be possible if the price consolidates above the cloud and preferably above the level of $ 64,700. But for now, purchases are less attractive than at the $ 30,000 or $ 40,000 levels.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin downside was invalidated!


The price of Bitcoin has started increasing again after reaching strong support. Now is traded at 63,482.17 level far above 59,510 yesterday's low. The price action has printed a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, but this formation is far from being confirmed.

Bitcoin is up by 5.31% in the last 24 hours and by 2.56% in the last 7-days. As you already know, BTC/USD was into a temporary correction after reaching a fresh all-time high of 67,016.50. The correction seems over after the price action failed to take out strong dynamic support.


BTC/USD BULLISH MOMENTUM!


Bitcoin has found strong support right on the first warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork and now it has jumped above the 250% line and above the weekly pivot (62,308.04).

The 59,953.74 static support stopped the corrective phase. The bullish engulfing printed at the confluence area formed at the intersection between the 59,953.74 with the warning line (wl1) signaled that the downside movement could be over. Actually, today's breakout above 61,450 immediate high signaled a strong growth.


BITCOIN PREDICTION!
Stabilizing, consolidation, above the weekly pivot point (62,308.04) may signal more gains. the second warning line (wl2), the 64,895 level, and the uptrend line are seen as near-term resistance levels, upside obstacles.

The rate could be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection between these obstacles. Taking out these resistance levels indicates potential growth towards fresh new highs.

A larger correction could be activated only by a valid breakdown below 59,953.74.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Anthony Scaramucci: Comprehensive understanding of bitcoin basics almost always leads to investing




In his last interview this week, Anthony Scaramucci stated that people who study and conduct a fundamental analysis of bitcoin increasingly want to have a stake in the cryptocurrency.

Scaramucci advised both novice investors and ordinary crypto enthusiasts, before investing their personal savings in Bitcoin, carefully familiarize themselves with the fundamental basics of digital gold, in particular, read the white paper by Satoshi Nakamoto.

In an interview with the American television channel CNBC, Scaramucci stated that a comprehensive understanding of the basics of bitcoin almost always leads to investment.

He vividly mentioned the famous and controversial investor Ray Dalio, who at first was a hardened critic and then became an investor in Bitcoin.

Also, Scaramucci did not forget to mention other investors and also billionaires, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, who, after fundamental analysis of Bitcoin, invested their funds in digital gold.

Scaramucci is confident that if they had not conducted such a thorough analysis and studied all the information about digital gold, they would hardly have wanted to invest their fiat savings in Bitcoin.

Since 2009, Bitcoin has grown by over 100,000 percent. Last week, Bitcoin renewed its all-time highs and reached its peak. It traded at $67,000 and is currently priced at $63,200. And just a year ago, digital gold was trading at the turn of about $13,000

Bitcoin is undoubtedly in a good fundamental position now, and also the demand for it and such hype are catalysts for its growth.

Well-known investor Tim Draper is sure that the main reason that Bitcoin is still not massively adopted around the world is that it is difficult to work with it, especially for novice investors and the older generation.

Mark Cuban also supported Draper's opinion and said that Bitcoin should become easier for ordinary people so that both the old generation and the younger generation can use it.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: current upside momentum does not cancel downside scenario


Bitcoin successfully bounced from the $60,000 area. This is a good sign, as is the fact that the price has reached $63,000. For more confident optimism, the main cryptocurrency still needs to gain a foothold above the previous all-time high above $64,000 per coin. Then the downward correction can be considered complete.

In the meantime, given the current technical picture, it is too early to say that the local decline is behind. The threat of the formation of a head and shoulders reversal pattern has not yet passed. If the recovery halts below $67,000 per coin in the coming days, the price could well return to the $60,000 support with a breakdown, paving the way for bitcoin to $55,000 or even $52,000.


HYPERINFLATION IS A STRONG CATALYST FOR CRYPTOCURRENCY GROWTH
Nevertheless, the medium-term fundamental background remains encouraging. As well as the scenario of the growth of the main cryptocurrency to $100,000 per coin. The supporting factors here are the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs and rising inflation in most advanced economies.

On Saturday, October 23, Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey shared his take on the current US economic situation. He tweeted about the impending hyperinflation as a result of the constant printing of money in the US and how the rest of the world will suffer from it.

And according to JP Morgan, it is inflation that pushes institutional investors to buy bitcoin.


GOLD VS BITCOIN: THE PRECIOUS METAL IS LOSING ITS POPULARITY
Hedge fund manager and billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones continues to hedge his bets with cryptocurrency, claiming it is his preferred investment to fight inflation.

Jones was an ardent supporter of cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular. In an interview with Yahoo Finance back in December 2020, he predicted that the capitalization of the main cryptocurrency would be $9 trillion over the next two years. In the same interview, Jones equated the bitcoin market with online stocks in the second half of the 90s, claiming the possibility of a high return of investment (ROI).

Then, in June 2021, he stepped up his support for the cryptocurrency, stating that all investors should devote at least 5% of their investment portfolio to BTC.

Regarding the competition between gold and bitcoin, Jones stated:

"Bitcoin has a market cap of $2 trillion and gold at $1,865 per ounce. Bitcoin is mathematics and mathematics has been around for thousands of years. I love the idea of investing in something reliable, consistent, honest, and reliable."

Jones has already invested 2% of his portfolio entirely in BTC, claiming that this is his preferred way to diversify his portfolio and accumulate wealth. He also stated that ideally, he would like to keep 5% of his investment in gold, 5% in BTC, 5% in cash, and 5% in commodities.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC decreases correlation with gold, while ETH increases and becomes more independent; what does fintech companies has to do with it


In the fall of 2021, Bitcoin is emerging from a protracted crisis and rewriting historical highs. The increased interest of institutions and the start of a new wave of coronavirus helps in this. This process is accompanied by the expansion of the possibilities of using cryptocurrency and the growth of the independence of the asset as a financial instrument. It is worth noting that the coin is losing its connection with both classic instruments and the altcoin market, which shows a moderate decline rate during the BTC correction.

However, the main analytical conclusion of recent months was the decrease in the correlation between bitcoin and the precious metals market. This is reported by the analytical company IntoTheBlock. According to the study, bitcoin is the least correlated with gold: the index fell to 0.49. The decline began as bitcoin was approaching a new all-time high. The similarity of the quotes of the first digital asset with silver and a paid asset has also significantly decreased, although it is still far from the indicators of mid-August. At the same time, ETH, on the contrary, has increased its correlation with gold, and the movement of altcoin with silver is identical to that of bitcoin.





The main reason for the uncorrelation was the change in the investment vector, according to which more and more institutional investors prefer bitcoin over gold. As of the end of October, the coronavirus crisis escalated again, forcing many large companies to look for capital bailouts in bitcoin. The situation was successful for BTC due to the coincidence of inflation escalation and the start of a bull market for the asset. In such conditions, the central banks of the countries and pension funds of the states began to invest in the asset. Thanks to this, gold began to lag behind bitcoin in terms of investment attractiveness.

Investment injections of fintech companies also played an important role in this, which opened BTC to the world community as a means of hedging risks. Analysts found that the first crypto asset significantly increased the correlation with the stocks of companies such as PayPal, Square, Bakkt, Gemini, and Voyager. However, bitcoin has established the maximum level of correlation with MicroStrategy, which is not surprising given the company's colossal investment.



Due to the establishment of new highs and going beyond the usual ranges of fluctuations, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are becoming more independent from the traditional stock markets. The decline in correlation can be seen as another step for BTC to position itself as a viable alternative to gold. And the current coronavirus crisis will complete the formation of a new favorite in the framework of inflation protection. Ethereum is also striving to become a deflationary asset, but until the full transition to version 2.0, the altcoin is not a competition to BTC.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to recover and a retest of the $63k resistance zone will take place soon. On the daily chart, MACD continues to move sideways, despite the formation of a local bullish crossover, which indicates that the current dynamics of price movement is preserved and the beginning of a local period of accumulation. However, the first signals for stabilization of the situation and an upward movement are already visible in the stochastic, which has made a bullish crossover and is actively growing. The relative strength index also consolidated above the 50 mark and is confidently moving up.

Despite the bullish signals, buyers are still weak and bearish pressure is intensifying due to local correction and profit taking. Given the growing on-chain activity and transaction volumes, the market is preparing to push the price up from the $62k - $64k range, and therefore it is worth waiting for BTC to return to systematic growth by the middle of next week.



Ethereum also underwent a correction, but not as powerful as Bitcoin, which indicates the growing independence of the altcoin as a financial instrument. As of 13:00 UTC, the coin is trading in the region of $4.1k with daily trading volumes in the region of $16 billion. ETH feels confident as it consolidates above the supertrend line, which indicates stabilization of the situation and the emergence of strong buyers.

The technical indicators of the asset have managed to gain a foothold in safe areas, complete the cycle of consolidation and begin a period of growth. There are no clear signals for an upward movement yet, but it is most likely that on Tuesday a breakout of the absolute record line and further movement to a new maximum will take place. In the near future, the coin will break through $4.2k and $4.4k, after which it will begin its path to a new historical record.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano continues to trade sideways.


Cardano continues to move sideways since the middle of September. Price has now formed a tightening triangle formation that implies that soon we should expect a break out. Price is still trading around $2.13.



Black lines- Triangle pattern

Green lines - Fibonacci retracement

Cardano has resistance at $2.25 and support at $2.06. A break out of this range will provide a trading signal. If bulls are unable to defend $2.06, we should then expect Cardano to fall towards $1.60. If resistance at $2.25 is broken, we should expect price to push higher towards $2.75. I expect volatility to rise and price to make a breakout at the latest around mid November.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021