Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 01.29.2020 - Watch for potential downside opportuntiies and few swing pivots to form around median line

Industry news:
The trading volume of the Bitcoin options being traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)-owned trading platform Bakkt has dropped to zero over the past week, one month after the product was launched.

According to data from the ICE's website, the last day where its Bitcoin options were traded was January 17, when 20 contracts were traded. Since then, no trades have been taking place. Bakkt's bitcoin options contracts were launched last month, and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).


Technical analysis:


As I alerted you yesterday, BTC did rotate around Pitchfork median line at $9.300. I do expect few pivot swings to form around median line.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and bearish divergence, which is sign that buying looks risky and that sellers may use that fast to establish sell positions.

MACD oscillator is showing decrease on the upside momentum, which is sign of the weak buying.

Resistance levels are set at the price of $9.430 and $9.550

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $9.111, $8.970 and $9.790.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 30 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
New research has shown that the number of cryptocurrencies entering Darknet markets has doubled for the first time in four years.

In part of its 2020 Crypto Crime Report published on January 28, Chainalysis - a New York analytical company Blockchain - showed that Darknet markets significantly increased their share in incoming cryptographic transactions in 2019, doubling the result from 0.04% in 2018 to 0.08 %.

According to the study, total cryptocurrency market sales increased by 70% in 2019, which is over USD 790 million in cryptocurrencies after a slight decline in 2018. Sales for the first time exceeded USD 600 million.

Chainalysis believes that while the overall share of cryptographic payments in the Darknet network remains fairly low, recent increases in volumes indicate that darknet markets are resilient to increased regulatory control by global regulators. According to the company, the total number of active darknet markets has remained stable in recent years despite increased law enforcement.

In particular, the study showed that while some markets are closing, others still manage to fill the gap and meet customer demand. While eight active markets were closed in 2018, eight new markets were opened in 2019, keeping the total number of active markets worldwide at a stable level of 49.

According to Chainanlysis, the growing share of cryptocurrencies arriving on darknet markets is allegedly due to the implementation of new technologies, which makes the operating process more decentralized. The company noted that to avoid law enforcement closures, some darknet markets are implementing new infrastructures that have a fully decentralized structure similar to the Tor browser or "to the Blockchain chain itself."


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the supply zone located between the levels of $176.95 - $178.12, but no breakout occurred just yet as the rally was capped by bears. The local correction has broken through the local technical support at the level of $172.91 and made a low at the level of $169.78, but the key short-term technical support seen at the level of $168.92 has not been broken yet. It is worth to keep an eye on the current developments on the Ethereum market, nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is clearly broken.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $187.66
WR2 - $177.62
WR1 - $172.55

Weekly Pivot - $163.44
WS1 - $158.80
WS2 - $148.63
WS3 - $143.46


Trading Recommendations:
There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The municipality of Zermatt in Switzerland is now second place in Switzerland where taxpayers can officially pay taxes in Bitcoin. To enable the new tax payment option, Zermatt authorities have partnered with the largest Swiss crypto company Bitcoin Suisse.

As announced by Bitcoin Suisse, Zermatt began to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment for local taxes and transactions on January 28, 2020.

By working with Bitcoin Suisse, Zermatt authorities are now able to convert taxpayer Bitcoins to Swiss francs through a company that then transfers the amount in fiscal currency to the municipality's bank account.

Local taxpayers will be able to pay taxes in Bitcoins using the sales tool installed in the Zermatt city hall or on the online payment portal. However, to pay taxes using Bitcoin online, taxpayers will have to apply directly to the Zermatt tax office for a cryptographic payment solution.

Romy Biner-Hauser, mayor of Zermatt, emphasized that the new tax payment option aims to meet the increased demand for Bitcoin-based tax payments:

While Switzerland is still developing its industry of crypto-financial services in terms of Bitcoin-based tax payments, some global authorities have recently found this option too risky due to the high volatility of Bitcoin values.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made yet another higher high overnight, this time it was located at the level of $9,383 and bulls are now consolidating the recent gains. The level of $9,130 will now act as short-term technical support, together with the level of $8,836. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,539. There is only a couple of days to complete the month of January and the Bitcoin chart still looks very bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,339
WR2 - $9,028
WR1 - $8,796

Weekly Pivot - $8,458
WS1 - $8,222
WS2 - $7,890
WS3 - $7,647


Trading Recommendations:
There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $6,345, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,278 is clearly broken.

Attachment 2185




Attachment 2186
Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 01.30.2020 - Median Pitchfork line at the prrice of $9.350 is main pivot to watch

Industry news:
The emergence of cryptocurrency as an investable asset has brought up an ongoing theme in the financial space. Traditional investors are only getting older, and the gap left behind them is not being filled by millennials and younger generations who are instead turning to Bitcoin and other modern alternatives.

This is a concern for the major financial houses, like Fidelity and Charles Schwab, who are now allowing their clients to trade fractions of stocks and exchange-traded funds. The hope is, by allowing investors to invest small amounts of money into big brands, like Apple, younger investors will be drawn in.

Of course, this fractional trading model is already something that is built into Bitcoin, helping the digital currency to be more inclusive and open, and indeed, one of the reasons why the younger generations find the digital currency so attractive.


Technical analysis:


As I alerted you yesterday, BTC did rotate around Pitchfork median line at $9.300. I do expect few pivot swings to form around median line. My analysis from yesterday Is still valid.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and bearish divergence, which is sign that buying looks risky and those sellers may use that fast to establish sell positions.

MACD oscillator is showing decrease on the upside momentum, which is sign of the weak buying.

Resistance levels are set at the price of $9.430 and $9.550

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $9.111, $8.970 and $9.790.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 31 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Bittrex has insured digital assets stored in its cold wallet to $ 300 million, which is the highest coverage offered by the cryptocurrency exchange to date.

The company posted an announcement saying it has obtained digital asset insurance that will protect user resources in the event of "external theft and internal collusion."

Bittrex CEO Bill Shihara said a security that has a $ 300 million limit offers "peace of mind" and showed clients that the stock exchange is "committed to prioritizing security in all our decisions and future Blockchain technologies."

The insurance was guaranteed by Arch Syndicate 2012, which provides specialized insurance for corporations. The policy was approved after the stock exchange demonstrated its internal security and compliance protocols, and was supported by other syndicates from Lloyd's of London, one of the largest insurance markets in the world.

The term "external theft" probably means theft by physically hacking into Bittrex cryptocurrency, because cold wallets are generally not vulnerable to hacking attacks. The protection may be similar to Blue Vault Arch, which provides limits up to $ 150 million and includes loss of digital assets due to internal and external theft (through direct access to storage media), and also includes collision of employees.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made yet another higher high overnight, this time it was located at the level of $9,510 and bulls are now consolidating the recent gains. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at the H4 timeframe chart might indicate, that the short-term counter-trend corrective cycle is underway. The level of $9,130 will now act as short-term technical support, together with the level of $8,836. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,539. There is only a couple of days to complete the month of January and the Bitcoin chart still looks very bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,339
WR2 - $9,028
WR1 - $8,796

Weekly Pivot - $8,458
WS1 - $8,222
WS2 - $7,890
WS3 - $7,647


Trading Recommendations:
There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $6,345, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,278 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 31 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
One of the largest car manufacturers, Mercedes Benz, has partnered with the Blockchain Circulor startup to jointly implement a pilot program to track carbon dioxide emissions in the cobalt supply chain.

According to the published press release, the Mercedes and Circulor project is part of the Startup Autobahn initiative to identify new generation cars. The companies will implement Blockchain to track climate-relevant gas emissions and the number of recycled materials along the complex supply chains of battery cell manufacturers.

Ultimately, Mercedes intends to use the data collected during this pilot to develop a new carbon-neutral car fleet.

The project will initially focus on cobalt supplies, which have recently raised issues of origin and ethics. Cobalt is a key mineral for the production of lithium-ion batteries, with the majority of cobalt production coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo, a region criticized for the unethical conditions of cobalt mining. In 2017, the United Nations estimated that, worldwide, 168 million children are exploited and around 40,000 children are in the cobalt mines of DRC. This means that it is particularly important for companies to know where the materials for their products come from.

The pilot program based on Blockchain technology maps the flow of production of these materials and the associated carbon dioxide emissions, and also records how much recycled materials are used in the supply chain.

This will allegedly help Mercedes determine if its partner companies are complying with sustainability requirements, especially when it comes to human rights.


Technical Market Overview:
After the local correction to the level of $169.78, the ETH/USD bulls finally rallied higher towards the technical resistance at the level of $178.25 and broken through it. The new swing high has been made at the level of $185.37 and now the bulls are getting ready to test the breakout from below. It is worth to keep an eye on the current developments on the Ethereum market, nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is clearly broken.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $187.66
WR2 - $177.62
WR1 - $172.55

Weekly Pivot - $163.44
WS1 - $158.80
WS2 - $148.63
WS3 - $143.46


Trading Recommendations:
There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 03 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Investigators from France, Belgium and Israel have worked out a scam that has extorted EUR 6 million from French and Belgian citizens, read Europol's press release. The scammers promised a significant return on investment, which seems to be a Ponzi scheme.

An international network of cheaters was allegedly led by a Franco-Israeli citizen. In 2019, the authorities arrested nine suspects related to fraud. The investigation began in 2018 and was coordinated by Europol and Eurojust.

Criminals reportedly created a system that promised large returns on investment in Bitcoins, diamonds and gold, and offered their services on undisclosed online platforms.

The scam has significant Ponzi scheme characters. The organizers promised a return of 5 to 35 percent, then pretended to manage user portfolios and invited them to invest more money. Some victims have actually received interest to increase their confidence in the platform.

Organizations were also targeted - the victims of the fraud were, among others, a large French private company. The fraudsters managed to collect at least EUR 6 million, and unpaid invoices amounted to several million more. The authorities managed to recover over a million euros, while the rest were allegedly moved outside the European Union.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range established between the levels of $9,540 - $9,130 throughout the weekend. After the recent rally, the market is now consolidating the recent gains as the upward momentum is decreasing significantly. This behavior might indicate a counter-trend correction on the horizon and the termination of the five-wave impulsive pattern supports this view. In this case, the nearest technical supports for the bulls are seen at the levels of $9,130, $8,836 and $8,694.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,823
WR2 - $10,138
WR1 - $9,838

Weekly Pivot - $9,130
WS1 - $8,807
WS2 - $8,069
WS3 - $7,777


Trading Recommendations:
The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,278 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 03 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The ETHDenver event in the US next month is attracting the attention of several major sponsors. BP joined the list. Ethereum prices are rising, exceeding the $ 180 threshold for the first time in ten weeks.

The ETHDenver event, scheduled for February 14-16, has strengthened itself as one of the largest Ethereum meetings this year. Information about the new sponsor appeared on the official ETHDenver Tweeter.

The three-day event offers a wide range of activities, including talks and workshops led by the best influential encryption and blockchain providers as well as experts. Some of the important speakers this year are Vitalik Buterin, founder of ConsenSys Joseph Lubin, founder of Shapeshift Eric Voorhees, researcher of the Ethereum Foundation Vlad Zamfir and a long list of CEOs and Blockchain experts.

The entire event is funded by sponsors and usually includes cryptographic exchanges, Blockchain and fintech companies. This year, however, the global giant BP joined this list.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair did not make any violate moves during the weekend. Instead, the market has been trading around the recent high made at the level of $193.52 at the top of the ascending channel upper line. The nearest technical support for the bulls is seen at the level of $185.37 and the next target is located at the level of $200.00. The momentum remains strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions at the H4 timeframe, so the odds for another wave up are still high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $231.75
WR2 - $211.10
WR1 - $202.50

Weekly Pivot - $183.58
WS1 - $174.98
WS2 - $155.68
WS3 - $147.65


Trading Recommendations:
There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $196.61 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 02.03.2020 - Watch for potential downside on the BTC due to overbought condition and rejection of the median line

Industry news:
Bitcoin Futures are once again in the limelight after Open Interest was found to have surged by over 60% since the beginning of the new year. According to the data provider, Skew markets, Bitcoin Futures reflected rising Open Interest among exchanges and stood at $4 billion.

The aggregated Open Interest was the least on Bakkt – $4.6 million, at the beginning of 2020. However, this changed as the year progressed and on 2 February 2020, it stood at $11 million. A similar trend of rising Futures contract was noted on other exchanges like CME, BitMEX, OKEx, Deribit, and CME as well.


Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading downwards as I expected last Friday. Another stronger rejection of the Pitchfork median line was the key for the recent downside movement together with the lack of demand around $9.600.

Watch for selling opportunities and potential rotation down towards the $8.972 and $8.792.

MACD oscillator is showing decreasing on the buying power, which adds confirmation for further downside.

Major resistance is set at the price of $9.600

Support levels are seen at the price of $9.000 and $8.700.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 04 February 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Kraken Security Labs has revealed that Trezor's hardware wallets and derivatives can be hacked to extract private keys. Although the procedure is quite complicated, Kraken claims that "requires only 15 minutes of physical access to the device."

The attack requires physical intervention in Trezor's wallet by pulling out its layout and placing on a special device or soldering several critical connectors.

The Trezor system must then be connected to a "glitcher device" that would send signals at specific times. They break the built-in protection, which prevents the system memory from being read by external devices.

This trick allows the attacker to read the contents of the wallet, including the private key grain. Although the seed is encrypted with a key generated by the PIN, researchers were able to force the combination in just two minutes.

The vulnerability results from specific equipment used by Trezor, which means that the company cannot easily repair it. You will need to completely redesign the portfolio and roll back all existing models.

In the meantime, Kraken urged Trezor and KeepKey users not to allow anyone physical access to their wallet.

In a coordinated response published by Trezor, the team minimized the impact of this vulnerability. The company argued that the attack would show visible signs of tampering due to the need to open the device while noting that extremely specialized equipment was required.

Finally, the team suggested that users activate the wallet password function to protect themselves against such attacks. The password is never stored on the device because it is added to the seeds to generate a private key on the fly. Kraken also noted that this was a viable alternative, although researchers described it as "somewhat clumsy to use."

This feature also imposes significant responsibility on the user. The password must be complex enough so that it cannot be easily deciphered and forgetting it will completely block users' money.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a possible Double Top price pattern at the level of $9,539, but is still trading inside of a consolidation zone. This behavior might indicate a counter-trend correction on the horizon and the termination of the five-wave impulsive pattern supports this view. In this case, the nearest technical supports for the bulls are seen at the levels of $9,130, $8,836 and $8,694. Please notice the momentum is clearly decreasing as well, which supports the near-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,823
WR2 - $10,138
WR1 - $9,838

Weekly Pivot - $9,130
WS1 - $8,807
WS2 - $8,069
WS3 - $7,777


Trading Recommendations:
The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,278 is clearly broken.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020