Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Potential downward continuation
01 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The latest policy by the FCA provides multiple key clarifications and definitions.

As an example, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum which the FCA considers being "exchange tokens," that are not regulated but will adhere to anti-money laundering regulations.

Furthermore, security tokens fall under the FCA's 'specifcied investment' category according to the statement, although it will also be under the firm's remit.

On the other hand, utility tokens will fall outside the FCA's control, except for when they can be defined as electronic money and fall with a new category of e-money tokens.


Technical Market Overview:

The BTCU/USD is still trading in the downward trend and there is no indication of any reversal yet. As long as the BTC is trading below the level of $11.000 and the level of $12.000, I would watch for selling opportunities. Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and the down flip, which is good sign for the further downside move. Pitchfork warning line 1 is suggesting that very soon there should be turn, which adds more potential weakness on BTC.

Important resistance levels to watch:
$10,206
$10,731
$11,000

Important support levels to watch:
$9,738
$9.346
$9.088


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. Stochastic is showing overbought condition and the fresh new down flip and the BTC is trading near the resistance $10,200.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 1. The importance of bitcoin is highly overrated. Sooner or later, the "bubble" will burst

Bitcoin – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has completed the consolidation above the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). However, BTC's growth potential is currently limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in the world currency markets. Yesterday's speech by Jerome Powell was regarded as positive for the dollar, despite the Fed's key rate cut. As a result, the US dollar has risen in price, and today, this wave can cover bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies, the price of which is measured in dollars. Secondly, many experts and analysts of the cryptocurrency segment begin to give their forecasts about the cost of the "cue ball" in six months or a year. According to many experts, the price may rise to $55,000. From my point of view, such scenarios cannot be excluded, but now they look absurd. The last time bitcoin grew to $20,000, predictions were made with numbers and $200,000 and even more for a single BTC coin. After that, Bitcoin fell to $ 3,000 per coin. This is what makes bitcoin the most unattractive tool for preserving the value of money from all existing ones. An asset that can rise in price by 5-10 times in a short period of time and in the same way fall in price, can only attract investors to "wait a few years" and with the hope that bitcoin will grow to just $ 50,000. But no sane investor will store his savings in cryptocurrencies if his goal is to save money. Therefore, I believe that bitcoin is very much overrated. At the current time, this is an HYIP technology, on which many want and try to earn. The advantage of bitcoin over fiat money is only one – anonymity. But anonymity is not necessary for those who do not suppress the laws. Therefore, many ordinary citizens do not need bitcoin as a means of payment. Especially – given its fluctuations in value.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 2, 2019, and July 10, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation above the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). Thus, I recommend buying cryptocurrency with the target of $10478, with the stop-loss order below the level of 100.0%. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $8744, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $9558, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 38.2%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Analysis of Bitcoin for August 1, 2019: price to push above $10,000 despite USD strength?

The month of August started with the strong US dollar which gained ground against several FX pairs but could not get the upper hand against bitcoin. The cryptocurrency managed to sustain the bullish momentum while residing at the edge of $10,000 area with a daily close.

After over a week of a lull on the market, BTC managed to shrug off the bearish pressure. After failing to break $9,700 multiple times, bitcoin has ticked towards $10,000 recently. It was quite a surprise for traders as there was no positive news about the cryptocurrency industry released during this time, making this surge more confusing. Interestingly, it's a bit of a mixed bag, despite the fact that bitcoin reclaiming the auspicious $10,000 price point is quite notable.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has gathered bullish momentum recently that allowed them to climb significantly higher but not as impulsively as earlier. These upward moves came about after a long period of downwards pressure that had jeopardized the upward trend that had been formed throughout the first half of 2019. Although the general market sentiment was bearish, with many analysts anticipating a movement to $8,800, some analysts warn that this newfound bullishness could be a trap.

As of the current scenario, bitcoin is expected to continue pushing higher despite the fact that the price may throwback below $10,000 again. The daily close above $11,000 may lead the cryptocurrency higher in the coming days. As the price remains above $9,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels as support whereas rejecting off the $10,000 injected certain bearish pressure in the process. The price is residing above the Kumo Cloud but not quite satisfactory with the current corrective momentum, remaining below $10,000 area with a daily close. As long as the price remains above $9,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 9,000, 9,400, 9,500, 9,800

RESISTANCE- 10,000, 10,500, 11,000, 11,500

BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Volatile





Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 01 August 2019

Horizontal trading conditions in low volatility continue in this pair

Crypto Industry News:
Nasscom, the leading Indian trade organization, said it was against a widespread ban on cryptocurrencies that had recently proposed a government panel in the country.

"Nasscom believes that the recent proposal of the inter-ministerial governmental committee to ban all cryptocurrencies, except those supported by the government, is not the most constructive measure. [...] Instead, the government should work on creating a risk-based framework for regulating and monitoring cryptocurrencies. and tokens, "we read in a local magazine.

According to the publication, Nasscom claims that cryptographic projects can always be tested in regulatory sandboxes before commissioning. The company also believes that banning cryptography will only serve to push off legitimate companies that already adhere to compliance rules.

Nasscom believes, however, that work should be done to create a regulatory framework to reduce illegal activities in the cryptographic space:

"We should strive to create a regulatory framework that will constantly monitor and prevent illegal activities. The regulation would allow law enforcement agencies to better prepare themselves to understand these new technologies, enable them to collect data on criminal proceedings and take enforcement actions".


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Oterwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $247.21
WR2 - $236.28
WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37
WS1 - $191.97
WS2 - $182.25
WS3 - $161.51


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 01 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has flagged an online scam offering Bitcoin.

On July 31, the Singapore Central Bank and the Financial Supervisory Authority issued an official warning stating that the agency had become aware of a website that invited Internet users to invest in Bitcoin through an article containing falsified information.

According to MAS, the scam website refers to fabricated statements falsely attributed to Goh Chok Tong, a local politician who in 1990-2004 was the second prime minister of Singapore. The statements were "either false or removed from the context and used in a misleading manner" - noted the regulator.

As reported by MAS, the name of the former prime minister was used to persuade people to pay at least $ 250 to a trading platform called Bitcoin Loophole, which claims to perform automated transactions on behalf of users. The platform also demanded credit card or bank account details, the regulator added, recommending the public to exercise special care and avoid sending any information to website owners.

In January 2019, the MAS issued a warning against many fake websites claiming that the Singapore Government officially accepts cryptocurrencies. As in this new case, the fraudulent program was distributed via various websites and offered opportunities to invest in the crypto using false information.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has broken the short-term trendline resistance and almost tested the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. After the Shooting-Star candlestick pattern was made at the level of $10,109, the market reversed slightly and is currently trading around the level of $9,850. In order to continue the breakout, the bulls have to move higher towards the level of $10,166 and then towards the level of $10,636.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,468
WR2 - $11,040
WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661
WS1 - $8,704
WS2 - $8,287
WS3 - $7,289


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Resistance zone on the test
31 July 2019

Industry news:
While other cryptocurrency exchanges work on the development within their exchange, Kraken took a huge leap as it acquired Interchange, accounting reconciliation and reporting service provider for cryptocurrency hedge funds, asset managers, and fund administrators. The exchange did not disclose any financial details about the deal.

BTC did rally to the level of $10.000 and there is a good resistance there. Resistance trendline and previous swing high are great area for potential selling opportunities. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities.


Technical picture:


Blur rectangle – Support ($9.080)

Blue horizontal line – Resistance ($10.200)

Blue horizontal line – Resistance 2 ($10.730)

Blue line – Pitchfork warning line 1

On the 4H time-frame I found that Stochastic oscillator is in overbought condition and that there is potential down flip, which is sign that buying at this stage looks risky. MACD oscillator is still in the negative territory below the zero, which is another indication for potential downside.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on July 31. Bitcoin, the most ambiguous tool, can move into growth again

Bitcoin – 4H.


As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). However, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to count on some Bitcoin fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% ($8744). However, the passage of the peak of that divergence will cancel it, and the growth of BTC will continue in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% ($10478). According to many experts, Bitcoin in the long term will only continue to rise in price. In 2020, there will be a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. Now, it is 12.5 BTC, and will be – 6.25 BTC. The last time a similar event happened, in 2016, Bitcoin prices soared 10 times. However, the question: Is it possible that an unconfirmed cryptocurrency, which is often used for illegal purposes, will rise in price simply on the basis of a decrease in supply? It seems so. Of course, halving will take place only next year, and the "cue" and other cryptocurrencies still cannot exist on their own. That is, if the governments of the largest countries of the world prohibit the turnover of cryptocurrencies, it will already entail the collapse of their value. Thus, we can say that Bitcoin is growing, because it is still allowed to do so. India, however, has already banned cryptocurrencies. Perhaps in the future, other countries will follow its example.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 2, 2019, and July 10, 2019.

Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $8744, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a new rebound from the level of 100.0%. I recommend buying Bitcoin with a view to $10478, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $9558, if the closing above the correction level of 38.2% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Analysis of Bitcoin for July 31, 2019: price pushes above $9,500

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today, and ahead of it bitcoin has managed to regain certain momentum over USD, having resided at the edge of $9,400 area recently. Investors from all around the world are waiting for the US rate cut which is likely to provide support to bitcoin.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been facing a bout of choppy trading as of late that has led bitcoin's price into a key trading range that will likely set the tone for the overall crypto trends in the coming days and weeks. Moreover, bitcoin's fundamentals appear to be building strength, as the cryptocurrency's hash rate has now reached a fresh all-time high which may correlate with positive price action in the immediate future. Although it is unclear for now as to whether or not this bullish fundamental factor will be enough to propel bitcoin's price higher, the upward or downward breaks are likely to determine the market trend in the nearest future.

Additionally, bitcoin and other digital currencies are finally entering the mainstream political discourse. The launch of Facebook's Libra lit somewhat a fire to address the issues that the Silicon Valley-backed cryptocurrency could bring. US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin echoed Trump's concerns in his own comments. Mnuchin claimed that he did not believe USD to be an asset for criminals. He remarked that cryptocurrencies should be subject to more stringent regulations to deter illicit activity.

On the other hand, the US ADP non-farm employment change report is going to be published today. The number of jobs is expected to increase to 150k from the previous figure of 102k, while the employment cost Index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%. Ahead of the NFP on Friday which is expected to have a dovish result with a decrease to 163k from the previous figure of 224k, today the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its rate to 2.25% from the previous value of 2.50%.

As of the current scenario, USD, having dovish bias as the interest rate cut is highly probable today, is likely to lose ground against bitcoin which is expected regain momentum and push above $10,000 area. However, certain spikes and increased volatility may be observed along the way.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price has bounced off the $9,400 area with a daily close recently which is currently being carried by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line as support along the way. The price has breached above $9,500 and is heading towards $10,000 area. However, the Bearish Continuous Divergence is evolving along the way, so the price is expected to retrace before breaking above $10,000 area with a daily close in the coming days. As the price remains above $9,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 9,000, 9,400, 9,500

RESISTANCE- 10,000, 10,500, 11,000, 11,500, 12,000

CURRENT BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Volatile






Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 31 July 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The US Department of Defense (DoD) aims to implement Blockchain's cybersecurity solution as part of its digital modernization strategy.

DoD has published plans for Blockchain technology in its four-year plan entitled "Digital DoD modernization strategy: Strategic plan for information management FY19-23."

According to the report, the Department's research branch, the Advanced Defense Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is currently involved in at least two cybercrime exploration projects using Blockchain.

First, DARPA is experimenting with Blockchain to build a new - or improved - communication and transaction platform. The stated intentions for this platform include communication between the units and the headquarters, as well as between intelligence officers and the Pentagon.

Second, DARPA tries to create an "unclassified code" using Blockchain technology, citing the ability of Blockchain to collect information about villains who are trying to break into databases.

Earlier, in February, DARPA announced plans to organize a two-day Blockchain workshop. DARPA was particularly interested in the study of consensus protocols not requiring consent. The organization also noted that there are potentially valuable use cases for Blockchain in storing data, saying: "The technologies of distributed consensus protocols have been revolutionized thanks to their significant role in cryptocurrency technologies and Blockchain. These technologies have dramatic implications for security and resilience when storing sensitive data and calculations, including for the Department of Defense".


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Oterwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $247.21
WR2 - $236.28
WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37
WS1 - $191.97
WS2 - $182.25
WS3 - $161.51


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 31 July 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Fortaleza, the main city of Northeast Brazil, will start to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for bus tickets until the end of 2019.

Local transport services have announced an initiative to enable citizens to pay for bus tickets with credit and debit cards, as well as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This initiative aims to reduce operational costs in the ticket system.

The entity, known as the Cooperative of Independent Transport of Passengers of State of Ceara (Cootraps), said passengers would be able to pay for their travels with Bitcoin via smartphones by scanning the QR code.

While Cootraps reportedly stated that the incoming system would also accept other cryptos in addition to Bitcoin, the co-operative did not explain any further details in this matter.

However, Carlos Roberio Sampaio, CFO at Cootraps, reportedly said that the new payment methods would reduce the amount of bureaucracy required and attract more users because the unit expects to simplify payment procedures by processing them using electronic coupons. In addition, passengers will be able to pay for tickets without disturbing the driver's work.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced out of the trading range and currently is testing the trendline resistance around the level of $9,753. Any breakout above this trendline will be considered bullish breakout with a target at the level of $10,166. The increasing momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,468
WR2 - $11,040
WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661
WS1 - $8,704
WS2 - $8,287
WS3 - $7,289


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019