Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Citius, altius, fortius!

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Ripple breakout attempt


Ripple was traded at 0.8083 level at the time of writing. It challenged a dynamic upside obstacle, but an upwards movement is far from being confirmed. In the last 24 hours, XRP/USD is up by 4.79% but is down by 0.73% in the last 7 days.

In the short term, Bitcoin moves somehow sideways, that's why Ripple seems undecided. From a technical point of view, the downside seems limited after registering a false breakdown with great separation below the 0.7 psychological level.


XRP/USD downside seems to be over


Ripple continues to pressure the downtrend line. It's still trapped within the down-channel pattern. As long as it stays near the downtrend line, a breakout is imminent. The level of 0.7428 stands as a near-term downside obstacle.

A valid breakout above the downtrend line may announce a potential leg higher. Still, staying under the downtrend line could bring a new sell-off anytime.


Ripple prediction

0.7428 - 0.6520 is seen as a demand zone. Staying above it and making a valid breakout above the downtrend line, escaping from the down channel may announce a new swing higher. Jumping, closing, and stabilizing above the downtrend line and staying above 0.75 could bring new buying opportunities with a potential upside target around 1.0.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Crypto market update for December 15, 2021



Bitcoin made a new decline of $ 3,500 thousand

Bitcoin did not move from its place for almost the entire day on Tuesday. A day earlier, its quotes dropped by $ 3,500. Therefore, it is now still difficult to say that the construction of the corrective wave b has begun. After the cryptocurrency decreased by $ 27,000, the maximum deviation of quotes from the reached lows was $ 10,000. And this growth is almost not noticeable on the chart, since it is part of another movement, down by $ 12,000 on December 4. Nevertheless, we are counting on a clearer wave b.

The markets currently do not show any desire to buy Bitcoin, no matter what forecasts analysts and investors give, among whom there are very famous personalities. For example, Cathie Wood, who believes that Bitcoin is capable of growing to $ 500,000, only needs all institutional investors to invest 5% of their funds in this cryptocurrency. However, when studying the shares of her Ark Invest fund, it becomes clear that Wood is interested in such forecasts since the share price has been declining for several weeks in a row. Others are predicting a new growth of the first cryptocurrency, but it cannot even start a corrective wave at the moment.

The hash rate of the network has fully recovered after China imposed a ban on mining

Six months ago, Bitcoin experienced a shock when the Chinese authorities completely banned mining on their territory. According to various estimates, 60-70% of the mining capacity of the whole world was located in China. It was a serious blow to this cryptocurrency, from which it recovered very quickly. Its quotes dropped to $ 30,000 per coin, but later, with the restoration of the network hash rate, they grew and eventually updated the annual high. Now, analytical agencies have announced the complete restoration of the hash rate of the network after the events of six months ago. Only now Bitcoin is declining again, which is due to the end of the era of free money for the economy. Both the Fed, the ECB, and other central banks of the world may abandon support programs for their own economies in the coming months, so the cryptocurrency market is going through hard times right now. Investors are afraid that a more powerful decline will happen and are in a hurry to get rid of cryptocurrencies right now.

Moreover, Bitcoin does not have the dominance index at the moment that it had a year or two ago. Other cryptocurrencies are increasingly attracting the attention of investors as potentially more profitable over a long period of time. In this case, we believe that mining has fully recovered, especially at the expense of America, where most of the mining capacity is now located, will not help bitcoin to resume the increase in any way. As I said yesterday, there are still about 2 million coins left, and miners will receive less and less remuneration for bitcoin mining every year.



The upward section of the trend in its internal structure does not cause any doubts and looks complete. If this is really the case, then the formation of a descending set of waves has begun and continues. So far, we cannot conclude that even the first wave of a new downward trend has ended. Therefore, wave a can take on an even stronger and extended form. It is worth noting that Bitcoin is very dependent on the news background, as well as on the mood of the market. If the market decides to sell it, then nothing prevents the first wave from acquiring a much more extended form. Since the attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level was unsuccessful, the decline may continue with targets located around $42731 and $ 41394, which corresponds to 38.2% and 38.2% Fibonacci.







Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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A contrario

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that Bitcoin is not as good for daily payments as the meme-based cryptocurrency Dogecoin.

Musk compared the world's largest cryptocurrency to DOGE in an interview with Time Magazine, shortly after the publication named him the Man of the Year 2021.

"Bitcoin is not a good substitute for a trading currency. Even though it was conceived as a silly joke, Dogecoin is better suited for transactions. The total transaction flow you make with Dogecoin, like your daily transactions, has a much higher potential than Bitcoin," Musk said.

Tesla CEO stressed that Bitcoin is more suitable as a custodian, so investors prefer to hold it rather than sell it or use it for payment. "Bitcoin transaction volume is low and transaction cost is high," noted Musk.

On the other hand, Dogecoin is not as good as a means of storing value, Musk noted, noting that the cryptocurrency is "slightly inflationary". However, this "encourages people to spend money, not hoard it," he said.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $45, 560 as the price is getting away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. After the short period of local consolidation, the bulls attempt to bounce again, but so far they hit only the level of $48,707. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $51,913 (Pin Bar high) and $53,333. The momentum is currently hovering just below the level of fifty on the RSI (14) indicator. Despite the recent complex and time consuming corrective decline in form of ABCxABCxABC pattern, the larger time frame trend remains up and only a clear and sustained breakout below the wave C low at $41,678 would change the outlook to bearish again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $56,908
WR2 - $54,309
WR1 - $52,119

Weekly Pivot - $49,669
WS1 - $47,511
WS2 - $44,768
WS3 - $42,652


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of $41,678 and the market is ready to continue the up trend. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $39,474 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $39,000 would be considered as a long-term trend change due to the lower low placement).









Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Pro et contra

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