Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 6th. The collapse of the stock markets of China and America increased the demand for bitcoin

Bitcoin – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has completed the consolidation above the correction level of 61.8% ($11544). Thus, the main crypto-asset intends to continue its growth towards the level of $12137. The rise in the price of bitcoin was facilitated by the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, during which China refused to purchase agricultural products in America, and America introduced new duties on imports from China. All this has dealt blows to Chinese and American companies, as sales volumes will decrease, and profits will decrease. This led to a fall in the stock markets of China and the United States, and at the same time, increased the demand for protective assets such as the franc, the yen, gold, and bitcoin. At the same time, bitcoin set a new record: now its share of domination over other cryptocurrencies is almost 68%. This means both a new influx of investors who are only interested in BTC and the transition of old investors from altcoins to bitcoins. One way or another, but the demand for "cue" is growing again, which leads to an increase in its value. In the dry balance, we get the conclusion that Donald Trump with his policy of protectionism and the desire to start trade wars with everyone who works out – the best friend for Bitcoin. The greater the geopolitical tensions in the world, the higher the demand for cryptocurrency number 1. Despite the fact that it has not been confirmed and some countries have already banned its circulation in their territories.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation above the Fibo level of 61,8%. Thus, I recommend buying cryptocurrency with the target of $12137, with the stop-loss order below the level of 61.8%. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $11057, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $11544, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 06 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Iranian government has introduced new laws that do not recognize digital currencies as legal means of payment. National transactions carried out using cryptocurrencies are also unlawful.

On August 4, the office of Iran ratified and published a new bill, which states that the authorities do not recognize any domestic commercial activities related to cryptocurrencies - inform Iranian news agencies today.

According to reports, the new bill says that the government and the banking system will not treat digital coins as a legal tender, and the central bank of Iran will not guarantee their value.

The new regulations are probably the result of analyzes by the deputy chairman of the Iranian central bank, which in July announced that buying and selling cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin is illegal.

Interestingly, digging itself is already allowed, albeit with the necessary approvals, as Iran has already allowed the extraction of cryptocurrencies and identified this form of activity as an industrial activity.

In order to dig cryptocurrencies in Iran, local miners will have to obtain the agreement of the Iranian Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade, and ensure that their mining facilities are located outside the 30-kilometer perimeter of all provincial centers in the country. Tehran itself and the central city of Isfahan are excluded from the above list because there will be stricter regulatory restrictions. Under the new rules, cryptographic miners will be charged for the use of energy on the basis of prices used for the export of energy from Iran.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has tested (and failed) the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $233.77 as the pair is trying harder to break out of the horizontal trading range located between the levels of $199.68 - $235.42. The recent move up above the local resistance located at the level of $228.04 has been made on an increasing momentum, so the chances are good that it will at least test the level of $235.42. Please notice, that the corrective cycle in wave 2 of the higher degree might have been completed already. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $225.14.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $260.89
WR2 - $241.83
WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73
WS1 - $206.31
WS2 - $187.76
WS3 - $178.82


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 06 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin.com announced that it will launch a cryptographic exchange named Exchange.Bitcoin.com. This is the latest addition to the product package that Bitcoin.com offers outside of their information service. The company has also developed a cryptocurrency casino, portfolio and P2P exchange for Bitcoin Cash, aimed at increasing the usability of the bifurcated Bitcoin alternative: "While our company believes that the Bitcoin Cash network will be accepted by the masses around the world, we also believe that it is important to promote the free market and choice" - the company said in a statement.

The stock exchange, which will be scheduled to open at the beginning of September, will note many of the largest coins, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. In addition, it plans to offer about 50 trading pairs, as well as Simple Ledger Protocol tokens (SLP) associated with Blockchain BCH.

The cryptocurrency marekts are on the verge of something very exciting thanks to SLP tokens - this is the beginning of a world in which we can tokenize everything, and when people realize the potential, they will begin to demand a place to exchange their tokens.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $11,548 and made a new local high at the level of $11,855. Currently, the price is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow zone located between the levels of $11,896 - $11,440. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook and if the level of $11,548 is violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $11,855.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,750
WR2 - $12,333
WR1 - $11,817

Weekly Pivot - $10,382
WS1 - $9,882
WS2 - $8,441
WS3 - $7,9485


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Strong upward momentum
05 August 2019

Industry news:
Iran's government is close to passing a bill that finalizes regulation for cryptocurrencies.

As reported by local news source PressTV, the country's cabinet ratified the bill on Sunday, approving legislation that will formally create a new industry of cryptocurrency mining, as was expected.

Mining will be allowed inside Iran as long as participant adhere to conditions listed in the bill, including obtaining industry ministry approval. Mining centres must also not be sited within a 30-kilometer (approximately 19-mile) range of all towns except the capital Tehran and major city of Esfahan where tougher restrictions will be applied, the report says.


Daily view:

Based on the daily time-frame, I found that the important resistance level at the price of $11.000 is broken and that there is the strong bullish momentum. There is a chance for more upside and potential test of $12.800-$13.000.

Important levels to watch based on daily view:

Resistance levels:
$12.800
$13.000

Support levels:
$11.000
$10.800

4H time-frame view:

Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum up on the MACD oscillator, which is sign of the underlying bullish pressure. I also found consistency in the price action towards the level of $12.000. My advice is to watch only for buying positions on the dips due to very strong upward momentum.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for buying opportunities with the target at $12.840




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BITCOIN likely to break above $13,800
05 August 2019

Bitcoin managed to break above the corrective range below $11,000 area and pushed higher above $11,500. It is expected to break above the previous high of $13,800 area in the coming days.

Certain speculation about Bitcoin is indicating the price to push higher towards $15,000 soon, though a surge from below $11,000 to over $15,000 seems somewhat farfetched, it may actually be quite plausible while considering the bullish technical formations Bitcoin has been incurring. In the past two days, there was a steady rise above $10,500 in bitcoin price above $10,000 against the US dollar. Bitcoin settled above the $11,000-500 resistance area.

It is currently observed that this recent recovery was somewhat triggered by recently-published tweets from Donald Trump about the China trade war. In fact, the latest leg higher coincided with the release of one tweet that also sent gold, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss franc higher.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price is expected to retrace back to $11,500 area before pushing back higher with a non-volatile bullish trend. As the dynamic levels are a bit far from the current price tick area, so mean reversion towards the dynamic level is expected in the coming days before the bullish trend continues to break resistance to reach $15,000 in the coming days. MACD has no signs of Bearish Divergence. It indicates that Bitcoin is unlikely to counter this strong bullish trend. Hence, the price may dip lower again.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 10000, 10500, 11000, 11500

RESISTANCE- 12000, 12500, 13250, 13800

BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Non-Volatile





Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 5. Donald Trump contributed to the growth of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin – 4H.

As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin performed an increase to the corrective level of 61.8% ($11544), rising by almost $1000 since the last review of this cryptocurrency. New purchases of "cue ball" were caused by statements of the President of the USA Donald Trump concerning the introduction of trade duties on the Chinese import from September 1, as described in detail in the article on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, not only the most famous cryptocurrency, but also gold, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc added in price. In general, the so-called safe-haven assets, low-risk currencies. Because, based on the articles about the euro and the pound, it seems that the US dollar has little reaction to the news about the escalation of the trade war with China. However, it would be more correct to say that the forex market reacts poorly to this news, but only in pairs with the euro and the pound, as these currencies are now weak in themselves due to the weakness of the UK and EU economies and too many risks for them. Bitcoin took advantage of the next chance given to it for growth.

At the same time, the analytical firm Elliptic paired with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, conducted a study in which 203,769 transactions worth more than $6 billion were studied and the results were obtained that only 2% of the total number of transactions are illegal. At the same time, 77% are marked as unknown, which immediately allows us to ask the question: what was the meaning of this study and the conclusion about 2%? Most likely, this is a reaction to the insinuation of Steven Mnuchin, who previously claimed a high percentage of illegal transactions involving BTC. The report is very weak because, given the anonymity of cryptocurrencies, it is impossible to determine which transaction is legal and which is not.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has fulfilled the growth to the correction level of 61.8%. So I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with a target of $11057, with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%, if it will be rebounded from $11544. I recommend buying Bitcoin with a target of $12137, and with a stop-loss order below the level of $11544, if you close above the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 05 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Chinese manufacturer of ASIC Bitcoin excavators, Bitmain, lost $ 625 million in the first two months of this year, according to a QQ report from August 2.

According to the report, the company suffered losses of USD 625 million in March, USD 345 in January and USD 280 million in February. These results were probably caused by the sale of obsolete 16-nanometer ASICs at low prices, and after the removal of stocks from these machines, new profits from the sale of new 7-nanometer mining platforms are expected.

It was estimated that the company's gross profit margin would reach 30% in April thanks to the sale of the aforementioned device. At the end of March, the company announced that its 9-nanometer excavator from the Antminer S17 series is to be launched on April 9.

Bitmain is planning to fundraise again, arguing that the cryptocurrency market has started to record profits again. The company was hoping to get $ 3 billion from the planned IPO in Hong Kong, but the latest report suggested that this fundraising goal would be reduced to between $ 300 million and $ 500 million if it was carried out in the United States.

The ETH/USD pair is trying harder to break out of the horizontal trading range located between the levels of $199.68 - $235.42. The recent move up above the local resistance located at the level of $228.04 has been made on a high volume and momentum, so the chances are good that it will at least test the level of $235.42. Please notice, that the corrective cycle in wave 2 of the higher degree might have been completed already.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $260.89
WR2 - $241.83
WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73
WS1 - $206.31
WS2 - $187.76
WS3 - $178.82


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 05 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
From August 2019, Brazilian citizens are required to report their cryptographic transactions to the national tax authority, the Department of Federal Revenue (RFB).

Transactions with cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, must be reported to the RFB in accordance with the rules set out in the 1888 normative manual introduced in May 2019. As reported by the national public agency Agencia Brasil, the new measure applies to individuals, companies and brokerage houses and covers all types of activities related to cryptography, including the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies, as well as donations, barter, deposits, withdrawals and others.

Entities are to provide monthly reports by the end of each subsequent month if crypto transactions have taken place. According to the rules, local cryptographic exchanges will have to inform RFB about all operations regardless of value. However, those who use foreign exchanges, intermediaries or make peer-to-peer transactions in crypto, will have to report transactions if the monthly amount exceeds 30,000 Brazilian real ($ 7,800).

Penalties range from 1.5% to 3% of the amount of unreported transaction.

Those who do not report on cryptographic transactions will face penalties ranging from 100 to 500 realities in Brazil or from 25 to 130 dollars. According to Agencia Brasil, RFB is also authorized to collect from 1.5% to 3% of the amount of the unpaid transaction as a penalty.

RFB believes that the digital currency market in Brazil has more investors than the second oldest stock exchange in Brazil, B3, which reportedly has around 800,000 customers. The authority intends to combat illegal activities such as money laundering, tax evasion and financing of terrorism.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $9,049 after the corrective cycle in the wave Z of wave 2 had been completed. The bulls have broken above all of the key technical resistance levels located at $10,166 and $11,068 and now are testing the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement of the lase wave down at the level of $11,548. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook and if the level of $11,548 is violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $11,855.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,750
WR2 - $12,333
WR1 - $11,817

Weekly Pivot - $10,382
WS1 - $9,882
WS2 - $8,441
WS3 - $7,9485


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 02 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The general manager of a company dealing in trade and investment in cryptocurrencies, Circle, believes that the United States will create appropriate regulations, as more and more companies are moving abroad.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Jeremy Allaire, he pointed to current trends for cryptographic market participants to move abroad as a factor motivating future regulatory policy in Washington.

Allaire's comments come as a follow-up to his testimony on Tuesday's hearings on cryptography and Blockchain, the latest in a series of sessions that US lawmakers have conducted about the growing industry.

"The increase in the number of projects related to digital resources outside the United States, the movement of companies to leave the US and projects wanting to start operations outside the United States is definitely attracting people's attention, I think it will eventually lead to legislative initiatives to try to provide adequate safeguards and protect investors but also clarity, which is very much needed to enable the development of technology and industry "- he said.


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Otherwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $247.21
WR2 - $236.28
WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37
WS1 - $191.97
WS2 - $182.25
WS3 - $161.51


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 02 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The total and target Bitcoin supply amounts to 21 million units. Today 85% of this number has been dug. In addition, in less than a year - in May 2020 - another division of the prize for block mining in the BTC network awaits. Up to now, such a period was conducive to growth and was the basis for subsequent bubbles. It is no different now.

The current supply of bitcoins means that only 17,850,000 people around the world can own one whole coin. In reality, however, this number is even smaller because there are people who, for example, have lost private keys to their portfolios.

Estimates of the Chainalysis blockchain research company from 2017 showed that the number of lost coins amounts to as much as 4 million units or more than 20% of the total supply.

Looking to the future, in May 2020 the aforementioned reduction of miners 'payments will take place - the miners' award will fall from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC for a new block. This event, which, according to analysts' predictions, will increase the price of bitcoin.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has been continuing the move up and recently the bulls have broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $10,166. The new local high was made at the level of $10,432 on a solid upward momentum. The next target is seen at the level of $10,636 or even at the level of $11,068. The last target can be hit only if the bulls will maintain control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,468
WR2 - $11,040
WR1 - $10,062

Weekly Pivot - $9,661
WS1 - $8,704
WS2 - $8,287
WS3 - $7,289


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019