Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin prices may face new volatility after Craig Wright was ordered to pay 500,000 Bitcoins to brother Dave Kleiman, his deceased business partner.

A payout - worth over $ 5 billion at the time of writing - could attract a 40% tax rate that Kleiman's assets would have to pay. There are concerns that 200,000 coins may be dropped onto the market to settle these $ 2 billion, potentially causing a collapse.

In an interview with fintech online magazine, Wright said he would comply with a court order that alleges he stole hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins by Dave Kleiman.

The ruling ends the case, which has been going on for years and has involved an increasing number of third parties far from Wright and his entourage.

Faced with numerous reports of fraud on social media, Wright even began suing those who disagreed with his alleged proof that he created Bitcoin. The trials did not lead to anything, while this week those who publicly supported Wright's original statements withdrew their support.


Technical Market Overview:
The high of the recent BTC/USD rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again. The market is still hovering around the level of $10,000 which seems to be pivotal for the further price movements. The upper channel boundary has not been violated as well, so the bears are still in control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto-hamsters drive growth, is Bitcoin worth selling in this case?
27 August 2019

Greetings, crypto enthusiasts and crypto-hamsters, a week has passed since our last review, and the course of the first cryptocurrency, strictly speaking, remained in the same place. What is the reason for such an attractive platform? A return to the $ 10,000 level was facilitated by a layer of negative information that has been holding us back for more than a week. The large-scale crypto pyramid PlusToken began to move its capital after law enforcement agencies became interested in it. By the way, a considerable amount of funds is involved in the form of moving $ 2 billion, and the fact that they can start to merge them somewhere, leaving customers' deposits empty, certainly scares traders. The second injection factor came from the United States, where Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Libra should be regulated by the same rules as other electronic financial transactions.

I can't say that this background exerted tremendous pressure during the intervals of the past week, but the restraint of the leading cryptocurrency is clearly visible.


Digest of the past days:
Arcane Research conducted a study of the dominance of Bitcoin in the crypto industry. According to company analysts, CoinMarketCap statistics regarding total market capitalization (dominance) are not true, and the level of 69% is underestimated, since the actual share of bitcoin in the market can exceed 90%. The British court to some extent recognized Bitcoin as property. This conclusion came as a result of the trial of the theft of 100 BTC. In UK law, cryptocurrency is considered data, so the owner cannot demand its return in case of theft. However, the lawyers in this case were able to prove to the judge that the theft was not a transfer of ownership. Now, the court is waiting for the conclusion of the working group, which should be determined by the end of August whether it is legal to recognize Bitcoin as property.

Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England, said central banks should consider joining forces to create a virtual currency that could replace the dollar as a reserve currency. We hear such phrases from crypto enthusiasts quite often, but not from the heads of the Central Bank, and after that it's worth considering.

The American congressmen visited Switzerland, where they met with experts from the Federal Office for the Protection of Data and Information regarding cryptocurrency from Facebook (Libra). Upon returning, the chairman of the US financial services committee, Maxine Waters, said, "Swiss government officials helped understand Facebook's status, complexity and scope, but I'm still worried about letting the big tech company create an alternative global currency controlled by the private sectors.

The Federal court in the Southern District of Florida decided to recover a staggering amount of bitcoins from the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto. The Kleiman V. Wright case ended in defeat. The court decided to recover more than half a million bitcoins from Australian Craig Wright and his intellectual property rights that he owned until 2014, the relatives of the deceased Dave Kleiman, who is associated with the creation of the first cryptocurrency. According to a conservative estimate, this is around $ 5.5 billion, of which Kleiman's relatives must pay a tax of 40% of the amount awarded. Now, Craig has the opportunity to appeal, which, of course, he will do, and the process will drag on for a long time, but just imagine if the court, nevertheless, takes the side of Kleiman and they decide to sell part of these bitcoins to pay taxes.

To summarize the information background, what we see is a lot of rich information that is individual and reacts differently to the crypto industry. In general terms, the pressure remains on the market after all, which reflects the market chart, but you should pay tribute to the stability of the leading crypto-currency.


What we have now is the amplitude fluctuation around 7.5% BTC, where the quote is concentrated within the psychological level of $ 10,000.

What are the assumptions for further development?

The bulk of traders is still not ready for growth, maybe the fear factor of last year (2018) plays, when at the same time period, during the end of summer, the round of Bitcoin draining began. At the moment, the limits of 9800/10500 (11000) are retained in the market, whether to work within the range, yes, it is possible, but the risk is high. The most acceptable tactic is still waiting for the breakdown of these boundaries. Key coordinates for the upward course: 12330; 13130; 13970.

Key coordinates for the downward course: 10000; 9100; 7500.

The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the general market capitalization, we see that the market volume continues to sluggish fluctuation in the side channel 256-282 ($ billion). Compared with the previous article, capitalization fell by another $ 12.7 billion and currently amounts to $ 263.6 billion. If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings remain the same: $ 355.1 billion and $ 385.2 billion.


The index of emotions, aka fear and euphoria of the crypto market, fell from 39p. up to 30p., which reflects the indecision of traders and the fear of decline. That week, the index fell to an extremely low level of 5, which once again confirms the fear of traders in the form of a fear of a repeat of last year.


Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators on all major time periods signal a possible decrease. It is worth taking into account that such a moment now, the quote moves in the side channel, does not fall, and thus, the indicators on the minute and intraday periods can be variable. Now, let's consider this in the analysis:




Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Broken bear flag in the downward trend, more downside yet to come
27 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:

Bitcoin is progressing well since my yesterdays down call and my analysis is still in the play. The 4-hour chart completed bear flag and I do expect more downside to come. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in world currency markets. In my opinion, most of the investors are investing in metals (Silver,Gold) and I don't see any big expansion in the Bitcoin yet.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found bear flag below the downward slopping trendline, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,727, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 27th. Bitcoin ignores the escalation of the trade war between the US and China

Bitcoin 4H.


Recent media reports suggest that there is no end to the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. The parties gladly introduced new packages of fees, with each country stating that its measures had been taken in response to similar moves by the enemy. This means that we may see the introduction of new duties or increase the old ones already introduced soon. I have repeatedly said that the trade war has a negative impact not only on the economies of China and America but also causes the global recession. However, in this article, I am more interested in the impact of the trade war on the bitcoin exchange rate. Many experts believe that bitcoin has recently become an asset from the "safe haven", along with gold or franc. I believe that this opinion is wrong and is specifically promoted by the media, news agencies or is frankly custom-made. Bitcoin cannot be used as a protective tool, as the cryptocurrency can lose 5% - 10% of the value within a day. And this is not a hypothetical assumption. The ups and downs of the "bits" are regular. Thus, it may be that some investors have "hundreds" of thousands of Bitcoin coins "under their pillows," but they are not there to escape from the global crisis, but to make a profit when bitcoin again soars up. And for it to fly up, it is necessary to stimulate other investors, mainly one-day investors, to give them confidence that BTC will go up in any case, so that "hamsters" actively buy cryptocurrency.

Interesting calculations are provided by the startup IntoTheBlock. According to calculations, most of the "bits" currently held by users were purchased in the price range between $800 and $3900 and more than 79% at a price below $10,000. That is, 79% of BTC network members are in the investment plus. However, to stay in the black, it is necessary that Bitcoin continues to rise in price, and this can be achieved only with the arrival of new investors and the retention of old ones. However, at the levels of $ 10,000, there are already significantly fewer bulls, and now there are few fundamental reasons for new cryptocurrency purchases. Therefore, I do not expect a new growth of bitcoin soon.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9782, with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10,642, and with a stop-loss level of $10,251 if the closing is performed above the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Swiss Financial Market Surveillance Authority (FINMA) has issued guidelines on regulatory requirements for Blockchain payments under FINMA supervision.

The new guidelines for virtual asset service providers, published on August 26, apply to Blockchain service providers, including exchanges, portfolio providers and trading platforms.

In the preface to the FINMA guidelines, it observes compliance with the digital assets regulatory framework issued in June by the Intergovernmental Task Force on Financial Activities (FATF).

FINMA emphasizes that Blockchain sector companies cannot be exempted from the country's regulatory standards such as the Anti-Money Laundering Act (AML). This is all the more important considering what the regulator perceives as increased risk, such as money laundering and terrorist financing, when it comes to pseudonymous Blockchain mechanisms.

Blockchain service providers are therefore required to carry out Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, apply a risk-based approach to monitor their business relationships, and notify the Swiss Money Laundering Office if they detect suspicious activities on their platforms.

The regulatory body emphasizes that its provisions should be interpreted in a technologically neutral way: therefore, the requirements for providing information on customers and beneficiaries along with payment orders apply to Blockchain payments in the same way as for bank transfers. However, such information does not have to be sent in the Blockchain but can be provided using other communication channels


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone and might be developing a Triangle pattern. Currently, the market is trading between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
A man from Los Angeles confessed to running a $ 25 million Bitcoin money laundering program and selling methamphetamine. American media reported that the 25-year-old, Kunal Kalra, could receive a life sentence.

Authorities say that in 2015-2017 Kalra exchanged BTC and dollars, ran a Bitcoin ATM and admitted to concluding transactions with drug dealers and other criminals.

Kalra also sold two pounds of methamphetamine to an undercover law enforcement agent. According to the report, he also faces an allegation of money laundering in Texas that was brought earlier this month.

The United States Department of the Treasury has recently added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Designated Citizens (SDNs) under the Kingpin Foreign Drug Addiction Act, also known as the Kingpin Act.

In July, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the authorities would act to prevent Bitcoin from becoming "the equivalent of a Swiss bank account." According to Mnuchin, the US government daily fights "villains in US dollars to protect the US financial system."


Technical Market Overview:
The high of the recent BTC/USD rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again. Currently, the market is testing the lower price levels and it is hovering around the middle of the trading range between the level of $9,704 - $10,599. The upper channel boundary has not been violated as well, so the bears are still in control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC 08.26.2019 - Broken bear flag in the downward trend, more downside yet to come
26 August 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart completed bear flag and I do expect more downside to come. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is another growth of the US dollar in world currency markets. The trade war is still active and investors are in indecision about the dollar, which indicates limited upside for BTC. Secondly, many experts, analysts of the cryptocurrency segment again begin to give their forecasts regarding the value of the "cue ball" in six months or a year. This is what makes Bitcoin the most unattractive tool to save the value of money from all existing. I think that overall Bitcoin can go lower due to no big buyers on the market and due to much more attractive markets now like a Gold market.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found bear flag below the downward slopping trendline, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,727 or $9,106. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,727, with a Stop Loss level of $10,700.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 26th. Mass and custom popularization of Bitcoin continues
26 August 2019

Bitcoin – 4H.


During the last week, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world has performed three rebounds from important Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 76.4%), which restrained its further fall. However, if you pay attention to the latest highs of bitcoin value ($12,261 and$ 10,895), it becomes obvious that BTC is clamped to a narrow price range. The triangle in which the "cue ball" quotes were until recently, was supposed to predict where the cryptocurrency will move in the coming weeks. The breakthrough is carried out by its upper boundary. Accordingly, growth is expected. However, I believe that not everything is so simple, and bitcoin is now more inclined to consolidation.

The World Wide Web continues to shock and amuse traders with its predictions about how much bitcoin will cost in a week/month/year. For example, the CEO of the popular cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao believes that mathematically, if a person has 1 BTC, then he is doomed to become one of the richest people on the planet. Zhao draws this conclusion based on a simple calculation, dividing 7 billion people into 21 million bitcoins. The fact that most bitcoins, like any other wealth, are concentrated in the hands of a small group of investors, does not count. The fact that about 3-4 billion people on Earth have not heard anything about bitcoin is also not taken into account. The fact that not everyone needs bitcoin is similar.

Also, the media and the Internet community are trying to popularize Bitcoin at the expense of big names of investors and financiers. For example, TV presenter Max Keiser believes that Warren Buffett can abandon his principles amid the global recession and add bitcoin to his portfolio, although he is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies. This is being done, as I have already said more than once, to popularize Bitcoin and its further growth by attracting as many investors as possible who want to get rich quick. A small group of people will remove the "cream" from the growth of bitcoin.

Also, the media often resort to openly fake news and lies. For example, recently it was widely believed in the media that any crisis, within an individual country or global, has a positive impact on bitcoin. An example was Venezuela, where inflation is one million percent per year. In theory, in Venezuela, residents should have long ago switched to any other currencies (especially since the US dollar is allowed) or cryptocurrencies. However, it is due to the inflation of Bolivar and the impression that the volume of purchases of bitcoin is growing. The amount of bolivars spent on buying bitcoins is growing.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). So I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9782 with a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8% if there is a closure below the level of $10251.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $11021, and with a stop-loss level of $10642, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 50.0%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Blockchain's remittance company, Circle, said the company has long maintained that major fiat currencies will eventually be tokenized.

In an online podcast, Allaire said that Circle has for years believed that sovereign currencies will eventually be digitized.

"When we started with Circle in 2013, I think we believed that there would be significant non-state digital currencies that would grow in use and be attractive to people for many different reasons, and Bitcoin is obviously the most noteworthy. But we also believed that the world's main reserve currencies, the world's major trading currencies, would become digital currencies" - he said.

Allaire also believes that the world is moving towards a system of cheap, instant cash transactions with traditional fiat currencies - no matter which countries introduce fiat digital currencies. In addition, he believes that this will be a radical change in the operation of payment systems, monetary system and economic interaction in general.

Allaire explained that he did not believe that digital currencies were simply tokenized using Blockchain and did the same as they do now. Instead, it predicts that global money tokens, supported by reserve currency baskets, will appear and become the preferred monetary model.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keep trading in a consolidation zone that gets even tighter. Currently, the market is trading between the technical support located at the level of $178.81 and technical resistance located at the level of $196.76. Despite the fact, that the whole WXYXZ corrective cycle might have been completed at the level of $172.82 on 15th of August, there is still no bullish momentum present on the market. The global investors should then await the breakout in either direction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $218.26
WR2 - $210.07
WR1 - $196.01

Weekly Pivot Pont - $185.93
WS1 - $171.02
WS2 - $161.63
WS3 - $146.97


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
At least three early Facebook supporters in connection with the planned launch of stablecoin Libra is considering withdrawing from the project due to strong regulatory pressure.

Financial Media states that the two founding partners of the Facebook Libra Association talked about what their right steps should be. Another - again unnamed - supporter is allegedly concerned that their public support for Libra will result in unwanted regulatory control of their own independent companies.

The Libra Association is a newly created, independent management consortium for Libra. It has 28 founding members - including Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Uber and Spotify - each of whom was required to invest $ 10 million in the project.

"I think that partners who want to be seen as compatible [with their own regulatory bodies] will find it difficult to support Libra," one partner noted in an interview with the media.

The tension supposedly increases on both sides. One partner admitted that Facebook itself was tired of being the only one to turn his neck. Both Facebook and the Libra Association reportedly declined to comment.

The antitrust authorities of the European Commission are the last to join the regulatory rounds of Libra since the project was presented in June. Objections from regulators, governments and central bankers around the world have reached such a high level that at the end of July Facebook was asked to warn its investors that stablecoin may never be released.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $9,704 but is still trading inside the descending channel, despite the recent rally towards the upper channel boundary located at the level of $10,371. The high of this rally was made at the level of $10,599, just above the 38% of the Fibonacci retracement, but no follow-through has occurred yet as the price got back to the channel again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,710
WR2 - $11,306
WR1 - $10,534

Weekly Pivot Pont - $10,091
WS1 - $9,320
WS2 - $8,854
WS3 - $8,140


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019