Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 16 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The head of the non-profit organization behind the digital currency Libra said the company is committed to launching it and removing regulatory obstacles.

Bertrand Perez, CEO of the Libra Association said the token should appear in the second half of 2020.

Comments appeared on the day when the French minister of economy and finance said that the country would refuse Libra to operate within its borders. Concerns about financial stability fueled dislike, and Bruno Le Maire suggested that he wanted the European Union to adopt a hostile position on Libra.

According to Perez, Facebook does not want to create new money resources using a token. He used the comparison to BlackRock, the largest asset management company in the world, saying that the social media giant does not want to compete in this market.

"We don't want to become a new BlackRock. Therefore, concerns about the destabilizing effect of our reserve currency on the central bank fiduciary currencies - which are in our basket - seem unfounded," said Perez.

Perez also confirmed that Libra will be associated with selected major international currencies, but not with Chinese yuan.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair keeps rallying higher and the last local high was made at the level of $194.72. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $196.76, which is a swing high. The momentum is increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week. The low for the wave Z of the wave 2 of the higher degree is in place at the level of $162.78 already, so now the market might continue with the impulsive wave 3 to the upside. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $212.96
WR2 - $200.24
WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92
WS1 - $179.10
WS2 - $168.22
WS3 - $163.07


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that Europe should consider its own "public digital currency" that could challenge Libra Facebook. The minister's comments - the latest from a series of high-profile doubts about the cryptocurrency plans of the social media giant - were reported by Reuters.

At the EU Finance Ministers' meeting in Helsinki, Le Maire told reporters that next month he would talk about the potential of the European public digital currency with his counterparts on the continent.

He also confirmed his fears that the proposed stablecoin Libra may pose a threat to consumers, financial stability and even "sovereignty of European countries". Le Maire called on the European bloc to continue work on reducing the cost of cross-border payments.

Real-time payments in the euro area have been available since 2017, but the program has attracted only about half of the block's banks. In addition, the project is currently focused largely on national payments.

In addition to these proposals, Le Maire said the bloc must rethink its approach to regulating cryptocurrencies at EU level. Repeating his calls for refusing to approve the launch of Libra in the European Union, Le Maire argued that the current suspension - in which regulators are still debating whether to regulate cryptocurrencies as securities, payment services or currencies - must be resolved by creating a solid and common legal framework.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair keeps trading inside of the horizontal price range located between the levels of $10,211 - $10,381. So far the bulls have only managed to retrace 50% of the last move down in the wave (2) of a higher degree and the momentum is not increasing as well. The next target for them is seen at the level of $10,469 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,232
WR2 - $10,847
WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174
WS1 - $9,851
WS2 - $9,477
WS3 - $9,160


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The team behind Ethereum Classic activated a hard fork called Atlantis to improve altcoin functionality and compatibility with Ethereum.

The message was posted on Twitter by one of the ETC directors, Yaz Khoury. Khoury congratulated the project saying:

"Congratulations to @eth_classic on the successful activation of Atlantis Hardfork! It was one of the longest debates that led to consensus, along with a policy of immutability. I learned a lot about the beauty of decentralization and a dispersed community," he writes.

ETC successfully made the hard forks according to the previously estimated time - between September 12 and 13, 2019 - at block height 8,772,000.

"The community had a number of meetings to discuss the schedule, scope and commitment, and we decided the direction and time of Atlantis release," said ETC Labs in June.

This hard fork is designed to improve security while addressing community concerns. It is also considered a "rush-free update" that will ensure ETC compatibility with Ethereum, making it easier to work with fraternal Blockchains.

After the announcement of the planned fork, ETC received support from a number of industry players, including the OKEx cryptocurrency exchange. The exchanges revealed their support on September 10, also warning that they would deal with related technical issues and resume service once the ETC main network is stable.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $207.64
WR2 - $195.13
WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09
WS1 - $169.04
WS2 - $156.97
WS3 - $149.69


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Finnish peer-to-peer cryptographic exchange, LocalBitcoins, warns users of the alleged security threat associated with the Tor Browser anonymous browser.

Transactional compliance expert Richard Bensberg posted on Twitter a screenshot of the LocalBitcoins banner warning Tor users of the risk of losing Bitcoins.

"Warning to all Tor users: The Tor browser puts you at risk of Bitcoin theft" - we read.

LocalBitcoins then responded to Bensberg, saying that while using the Tor browser does not conflict with the terms of service, it is not recommended to use it for security reasons. LocalBitcoins did not specify why the browser makes users more vulnerable to theft.

Bensberg criticized the move, claiming that Localbitcoins "really lost the thread," placing a banner warning of a browsing tool praised for ensuring privacy and anonymity.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has ompleted the wave (2) at the level of $9,809 and bounced to the level of 50% of the Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,340. The momentum is increasing, so the next target is seen at the level of 61% located at $10,469. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,244
WR2 - $11,525
WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260
WS1 - $9,607
WS2 - $8,906
WS3 - $8,306


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Important short-term resitance on the test at $11,400, watch for sell opportunities
12 September 2019

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


MACD oscillator on the 4H is not showing any new momentum up on the recent rally, which is sign of the weak buying. Important resistance at the price of $10,400 is on the test and you should be careful with long positions. I didn't find any reaction after the ECB meeting today, which is indication that no institutional money is involved into Bitcoin for now.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found weak bullish momentum on the MACD oscillator, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential of $9,855 or $9,350. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with the first target at $9,855.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 12th. Bitcoin is heading for a long-term goal of $4,000?

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 11, Bitcoin rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% ($9788) and a small increase. However, the tendency of bitcoin to fall remains, as the quotes remain within the tapering triangle formed by the two trend lines. Since the "cue ball" quotes rebound from the upper line, I expect the fall to the bottom line, which is located near the price value of $9350. This level is the maximum potential fall in the current conditions. A further drop in BTC quotes will be possible if traders manage to close below the trend line. In this case, bitcoin may decline in the medium term to the target levels of $4000 - $5000 per coin indicated by John Bollinger. I recommend buying cryptocurrency after the price goes beyond the triangle through the upper trend line, that is, under current conditions, not lower than the levels of $10400 - $10500. Or after the rebound from the bottom trend line.

A new interesting forecast came from one of the famous crypto experts, based on the study of the cyclical complexity of cryptocurrency mining. Based on the expert's considerations, only the growth and fall of the capacities required for mining are cyclical. The crypto expert correlated the complexity of block mining (that is, the volume of production capacity and costs) with the value of bitcoin. Based on calculations, the new maximum value of bitcoin is $31000. However, the analysis does not say when BTC can reach these figures.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of analysts note a decrease in the maximum value of bitcoin on the 4-24 hourly charts. This phenomenon is visible to the naked eye. It is this factor that can speak in favor of a further decline in the quotes of the "cue ball", and confirmation of this scenario will be the closure under the lower line of the triangle, which we have already written above.

Another interesting forecast came from a well-known analyst and one of the founders of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee. According to Lee, the Fed's rate cut may lead to an increase in the value of bitcoin, and by the end of the year, the cryptocurrency will grow to $20000 per coin. According to Lee, bitcoin is used by investors to hedge risks, and the rate cut by the central bank causes an increase in volatility, which applies both to the transfer of funds to high-risk assets and hedging instruments. From my point of view, this is a very controversial statement, and we have heard a lot of such forecasts from "experts". However, while bitcoin is getting cheaper, and its most important peaks (there are two of them and they are visible on the monthly or weekly chart) says the opposite: Bitcoin is preparing to fall to $4000 per coin, since the second upward impulse was much weaker than the first, when bitcoin reached almost $20000.


Overall results:
Bitcoin continues to become cheaper, though at a low pace. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The rebound of BTC from the trend line will allow traders to count on the growth of the "cue ball" quote to $10000 - $10500. But more likely, from my point of view, there is still an option with a fall much lower than $9350.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%. However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9350 (the bottom line of the triangle). I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a fall in the price.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 12 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Mastercard began working with Blockchain R3 to develop a cross-border payment solution.

According to a press release published by Mastercard, both companies plan to pilot a new cross-border payment solution using Blockchain technology. The system will focus on connecting global infrastructure for faster payments, systems and banks.

The announcement is part of Mastercard's plans to strengthen the cross-border payment network, building on the acquisition of the global payment company Transfast, which took place earlier this year. The partnership with R3 is part of the payment giant's strategy, where customers choose the method of transferring funds.

"Developing a new and better solution in the field of B2B cross-border payments by improving global connectivity in the area of the account - the account is key to the ambition of Mastercard. Our goal is to provide global payment and communications infrastructure, as evidenced by our recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships, including our relations with R3, "said Executive Vice President of the new Mastercard payment platforms, Peter Klein.

The partnership builds on previous relationships between the two companies, which also came out publicly earlier this month when Mastercard joined the Corded R3 Marco Polo Network to finance trade.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD market as the price is still locked inside a narrow horizontal trading zone located between the levels of $172.82 - $183.43. Recently, the price has started to move slightly down again, towards the lower range boundary located at $172.82. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new swing high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again. The larger time frame trend is still bearish and despite the potential termination of the wave 2 of the higher degree, the market participants still did not make the price to rally significantly.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $207.64
WR2 - $195.13
WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09
WS1 - $169.04
WS2 - $156.97
WS3 - $149.69


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Jay Clayton, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), gave information in a television interview about the regulator's latest approach to Bitcoin ETFs.

In an interview, the President of the SEC stated that while significant steps were taken to address regulatory problems in relation to the investment fund, "work remains to be done".

"Given that they are traded on largely unregulated exchanges [...] how can we be sure that these prices are not subject to significant manipulation? Now we are making progress, but people had to answer these difficult questions to be sure that this is the right kind of product, "he said.

Clayton mentioned earlier that the commission was working to make Bitcoin ETF an option for US investors, but highlighted the need for security on regulated markets, saying:

"We do it, but there are a few things we need to feel comfortable with. The first is trust: trust has long been a requirement in our markets, and if you say you have something, you really do have it," he said finally.


Technical Market Overview:
Despite the fact, that the typical target level for correction was hit (61% Fibonacci at $9,882), the BTC/USD pair is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and the bounce from $9,882 was rather shallow. It might suggest, that the corrective cycle has not been completed yet and there is more downside to come. The next technical support is seen at the level of $9,704 - $9,645, but in a case of a breakout higher, the nearest target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,331 and $10,481.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,244
WR2 - $11,525
WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260
WS1 - $9,607
WS2 - $8,906
WS3 - $8,306


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Sellers in control, downward target set at $9,350
11 September 2019

Industry news:
The intraday polarity in the bias of Gold and Bitcoin showed an uneasiness of investors towards putting money in the latter. Morgan Creek Capital co-founder & partner Anthony Pompliano in June projected monetary easing policies as breeding grounds for bitcoin bulls, stating that a drop in the value of fiat currencies would create demand for non-sovereign assets/currencies like bitcoin. Meanwhile, noted economist Alex Kruger said that only speculators – for now – can drive the price of bitcoin higher, not institutional investors..

Technical view:


Bitcoin did exactly what I expected yesterday and our downward target is still expected at the price of $9.350

Pink lines – Larger symmetrical triangle in play

Black lines - Channel

Green falling line – Expected path

Most recently, I found that there is first lower high and lower low on 4H time-frame, which is indication that short-term down trend is gaining power . There is also rejection of the middle Bollinger band, which adds more potential downside. I still expect potential new wave down for potential fulfill of the lower symmetrical triangle boundary.. Key support is at $9.350 and resistance at $11.000 and $11.200. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong aggressive selling from the key resistance. As long as the Bitcoin is trading below $11.200, The level around $10,000 looks like a decent sell zone if you already don't have sell on Bitcoin.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 11th. The real bitcoin dominance index reaches 95%

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 10, the BTC rate fell to the correction level of 76.4% ($9788), which is the first goal on the way to the upward trend line, according to my expectations outlined in previous forecasts. The breakdown of the "cue ball" quotes from the indicated level will allow the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world to rise slightly, however, in general, I expect a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9566) and the trend line. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. I also remind you that according to the John Bollinger's forecast, "if the bulls fail to significantly improve their positions this week (meaning last week), then Bitcoin will face a serious drop, down to the levels of $4000 - $5000". I believe that the bulls were not able to leap up, the downward trend kept the BTC from strong growth. Now, let's see if the upward trend line of Bitcoin can keep from a strong fall.

Meanwhile, Blockstream CEO Adam Back reports that the bitcoin dominance index is currently returning to normal levels of 90%. Back says that until June 2016, this index never dropped below 99%. The real value of the index is now 95% if we exclude from the calculations the stablecoins and USDT (cryptocurrency tied to fiat money).

"The brilliant forecast" was made by the Head of ShapeShift crypto exchange Erik Voorhees. He believes that the BTC cryptocurrency will grow above $20000 per coin by the end of the year, but immediately declares that "he usually makes mistakes in forecasts." Voorhees believes that any cryptocurrency is a long-term project and extremely speculative. Thus, Voorhees advises every investor to own bitcoins but to realize that it can completely devalue and the "bubble" will burst. The international interbank system SWIFT does not consider bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be competitors. The only cryptocurrency that SWIFT does justice to is Facebook's Libra. All other cryptocurrencies cannot affect the sphere of payments in the short term, according to SWIFT.


Overall results:
Bitcoin continues to fall in price, although not too fast. Based on the picture in the illustration, the most likely option is a decrease in the area of $9300 - $9400. The BTC rebound from the level of 76.4% allows to expect small growth of quotations, but the untrained goals of about $9566 and $9350 are forced to expect a decrease. If bitcoin, as I expect it, reaches the bottom line of the triangle, then the fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided around it.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling a cryptocurrency with the targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci),$9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $ 9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). About the first goal, you can partially take profits or exit transactions and wait for the situation to develop.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a drop in the price of the "cue ball".



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019