Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin now expected to reach $100,000 in Q1 of 2022


The most difficult thing, in my opinion, in trading is to predict the timing of the forecast. Moreover, this is probably completely impossible. Although, most likely, there are some analytical models that allow us to assume how quickly a particular asset will reach a certain price.

What's the point? So far, there have been no serious shifts from the main cryptocurrency and we have to wait, there is time to discuss medium-term or even long-term prospects.


BITCOIN LOCALLY - THREE SCENARIOS

The technical picture on the Bitcoin chart has not changed since yesterday. The main cryptocurrency still remains above the support level of 55,842.84, which means that the forecasts indicated earlier remain relevant.

Let me remind you of three short-term scenarios from the last review. The first is a sideways consolidation at 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 before the breakout, the second is a recovery above $60,000 per coin and continued growth.

Finally, the least optimistic is the deepening of the correction towards $52,000 per coin before the price returns to the increase.


BITCOIN GLOBALLY - WHEN WILL IT BE $100,000 PER COIN?

Not everyone is ready to give up forecasting dates. For example, veteran crypto trader Ton Weiss is trying to predict how soon the main cryptocurrency can reach the price of $100,000.

He informed his followers that the chances of BTC rising more than 75% in the remaining month and a half to the end of the year are low.

Weiss notes that while the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $100,000 in 2021, that bar could be lifted during the first three months of 2022.

Ton Weiss is an experienced crypto trader and probably makes such timing assumptions for a reason. He says that if Bitcoin manages to rise above the 50-day moving average, then only then can we talk about further growth.


SO, ARE WE GOING TO DECLINE?

According to Weiss, now the "more likely path" for the main cryptocurrency is to continue the correction, at least for the short term. Remember, we are still considering the $100,000 target for the first quarter of 2022.

Well, if it is difficult to judge the correctness of the timing, I can agree with the deepening of the correction. My target is the support in the $52,000 zone. And its achievement is not perceived in panic.

In order to clarify what Weiss means in his review, I plotted a bold green 50-day moving average on the daily chart, although I don't like indicators. Indeed, BTCUSD needs to gain a foothold above the 61,048.64 - 62,637.96 area, where the SMA-50 passes, so that we can talk about further growth.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on November 24 - 25, 2021: sell below 4,230 (200 EMA)



The price of Ether (ETH/USD) is now below the 200 EMA located at 4,720. It could be a negative signal with targets towards the bottom of the downtrend channel and up to 4/8 of murray around 3,750.

On the other hand, consolidation above 4,300 could signify a bullish move and could challenge the top of the downtrend channel around 4,550.

According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that Ether is trading within a downtrend channel formed since October 27. As long as it remains within this channel, it is likely that there will be highs and lows respecting the bearish direction.

Considering the bearish outlook for BTC, it is expected that the price of Ethereum will follow the same trend and fall to the demand zone around 3,750.

A daily close below the psychological level of $4,000 will confirm the start of a downtrend. In this case, Ether will have as its objective the level of 3,750 (4/8) and if this level is broken, it could fall to the level of 3,437 (3/8).

On the contrary, if Ether gains momentum breaking through the bearish channel and consolidates above 4,500, we can expect a new bullish wave that could reach the psychological level of $5,000 (8/8).

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below the 200 EMA with targets at 4,065 and up to 3,750. On the contrary, if it consolidates above the 21 SMA at 4,270, we can buy with targets towards 4,550.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 24 - 25, 2021
Resistance (3) 4,467
Resistance (2) 4,375
Resistance (1) 4,270

Support (1) 4,139
Support (2) 4,062
Support (3) 3,932


A trading tip for ETH for November 24 - 25, 2021
Buy above 4,273 (200 EMA ) with take profit at 4,550 or sell below 4,230, with take profit at 4,062 (5/8) and 3,750 (4/8), stop loss below 4,220.







Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

El Salvador's Volcanic Bitcoin Bonds Will Catalyze Digital Gold Growth Up To $1,000,000 Over 5 Years




Samson Mow, chief strategy officer of blockchain technology provider Blockstream, is confident that El Salvador's bonds will be a catalyst for the growth of digital gold up to $1,000,000 over 5 years.

Despite the current correction and the fall up to $58,000, Bitcoin still rose to its historical level, breaking through the milestone of almost $69,000. The capitalization of Bitcoin amounted to more than $1 trillion, and the entire cryptocurrency market is more than $3 trillion.

Mow is convinced that thanks to the introduction of Bitcoin into the financial system of El Salvador, as well as its volcanic bonds, the cryptocurrency will grow to $1,000,000 within 5 years.

El Salvador will competently finance its Bitcoins from its Federal Portfolio. The country's president, Nayib Bukele, will sell half a billion dollars worth of Bitcoins in 2 quarters. Now there are more than 1,100 Bitcoins on the account of El Salvador.

Bukele wants to build a Bitcoin City with low taxes for its citizens, which will run on the geothermal energy of the Conchagua volcano. El Salvador has a Bitcoin bond worth $1 billion, where half of this amount will be spent on the construction of Bitcoin City, and the rest will go to investing in Bitcoin.

Mow is also confident that if a dozen more countries issue such Bitcoin bonds, it will be a real sensation, and is at least half of the market capitalization of digital gold.

He also stressed that if at least ten more such bonds are issued, at least 5 billion U.S. dollars in BTC will be withdrawn in a few years, and El Salvador will be a digitalized mecca.

Volcanic bonds will be for a period of 10 years, denominated in U.S. dollars, and the interest rate will reach 6.5 percent. President Bukele urged his citizens to invest in these bonds if they want to earn as much as they wish.

However, some investors were skeptical of such an idea. This scheme may mean that the country will have little access to the traditional debt market.

The IMF also warns that Bitcoin can be dangerous for consumers and carry financial risks. At the moment, El Salvador wants to receive a loan of $1.3 billion from the IMF, this money should go to the construction of a new railway line, as well as a modern airport.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum: continuation or reversal pattern?

Ethereum is trading at 4,293.88 level and it seems undecided as the price action developed a triangle pattern. It remains to see if the chart formation will be a reversal or a continuation pattern. In the short term, the rate could move sideways trying to attract more bullish energy.

Technically, the crypto signaled that the downside movement is over and that the buyers could take the lead again. Still, we'll have to wait for confirmation before taking action. ETH/USD is up by 0.76%% in the last 7-days and is down by 0.13% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin moves sideways as well, so only BTC/USD's rally could force the price of Ethereum to climb higher. Still, Bitcoin could come down to test and retest a support zone before trying to rebound.


ETH/USD ATTRACTS MORE BUYERS!



ETH/USD is traded above the descending pitchfork's median line (ML) but the 23.6% retracement level and the weekly pivot point (4,331.09) stopped the upside movement. It has developed a triangle pattern, an upside breakout from this formation could signal potential further growth.

As you can see, the crypto has found support on the 38.2% retracement level signaling that the downside movement is over.


ETH/USD OUTLOOK!

Ethereum could resume its uptrend only if it jumps and closes above the 4,439.92 and above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (UML). It could try to take out the near-term resistance levels as long as it stays above the median line (ML) or above 38.2% (4,024.81).






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 25, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Australian Finance Minister Jane Hume warns of the risk of missing out on the opportunities offered by cryptocurrencies. According to her, this is not a temporary fad, and further ignoring this market could expose Australia to losses.

Unlike the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which last week issued a warning against investing money in cryptocurrencies, Jane Hume is aware that cryptocurrencies will stay with us for longer:

"As an industry, and as a government, we need to acknowledge this is not a fad. We should tread cautiously, but not fearfully ".

Hume also believes that there are areas related to financial services where past experience cannot be relied upon and new rules need to be developed.

"There are some areas of financial services where we can not learn from past experiences, and we have to forge our own trail."

Consequently, banks can no longer fight innovation as it will not transfer anything good.

A recent report clearly shows that Australians are very interested in cryptocurrencies. Almost every fifth respondent admitted that he had invested money in them.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair keeps consolidating in a narrow range. The current price action indicates a possibility of a triangle price pattern in progress, so another down wave might occurs if there is a breakout from this pattern. In that case, the next target for bears is seen the level of $4,021. Any violation of this level would accelerate the down move towards the key short-term technical support seen at $3,954. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains up and there is no indication of the trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,566
WR2 - $5,159
WR1 - $4,752

Weekly Pivot - $4,357
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,564
WS3 - $3,134


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.









Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Hot news on crypto market on November 25, 2021



Despite a 20% correction, demand for BTC is still buoyant.

On Wednesday, November 24, Bitcoin again traded lower and made another attempt to break the level of $56,361 that matches 76.4% Fibonacci correction. Let me remind you about the importance of this level. If the bears eventually make a successful attempt to break it, the door will be open for a new downward wave. This will give great trading opportunities to the sellers. If the buyers are able to hold the price above $56,361, the wave layout of the uptrend will get complicated and Bitcoin cold make efforts to update the highs of 2021 once again.

According to the latest report by Glassnode, long-term investors are keeping their positions open and still increasing their digital holdings. I told you earlier that according to some estimates almost 82% of Bitcoins are kept in wallets of long-term investors. At the same time, there is a subtle difference between long- and short-term traders. Indeed, in case of a serious nosedive, a lot of long-term traders could easily turn into short-term ones, thus escalating a slump of the crypto. Nevertheless, Glassnode is certain that long-term investors are still carrying on buying all available tokens, taking advantage of a 20% discount. Strong demand benefits the flagship cryptocurrency, preventing it from a deeper plunge.

BTC buyers, who enter the market at the early stage of the uptrend, are anticipating fat profits.

The final wave of the uptrend began at near 30,000. Most investors were buying Bitcoin at $30-35,000. Therefore, some analysts reckon that those who bought tokens at such lows might not be interested in profit taking now. This is the reason why long-term investors are still keeping Bitcoin in their wallets. They are waiting for a higher price to lock in profits.

At the same time, they might not be willing to sell tokens if the price leaps to $120,000. Market sentiment is a like a sensitive barometer that could instantly push a price in any direction. Bitcoin is highly sensitive to market sentiment. I'd like to turn your attention to the fact that a decline in BTC price means the glut of digital tokens in the market at present. In other words, no matter how hard long-term investors endeavor to buy all BTC tokens available in the market, they are not able to do but them all at the moment. If the price settles below $56,361, more and more sellers will enter the market. As the timeline for a Fed's rate hike is approaching, an increasing number of investors will be poised to sell crypto and other risky assets.



The ongoing uptrend section still does not make me doubt. The wave layout cleared up after Bitcoin made a successful attempt to break the high of wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive 5-wave uptrend section that came into being on June 20. However, in the last two weeks the price has been pulling back from the highs. It could mean that wave 5 is about to complete soon. This wave will look shorter. I'm in favor of this scenario if Bitcoin breaks $56,361 successfully. If no, wave 4 could split in three smaller waves that could be followed by a formation of wave 5 with targets at about 74,000.

To sum up, I expect a successful breakout of 56,361. In this case, the price will continue a decline during the first wave of a new downtrend section. This section could be built in 1-2 months in full. Meanwhile, Bitcoin will be heading towards 45,000.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 25, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Blockchain technology has opened up a wide variety of use cases across various sectors of the economy. As inflation rises, institutions and investors are looking for a way to generate income. In this area, the crypto industry offers great opportunities, often by innovating and improving an aspect, function, or asset already consolidated in the financial world to date.

Landshare (LAND), a platform operating on Binance Smart Chain, is trying to be a catalyst for further financial innovations. The platform allows its users to own real estate on the blockchain through a mechanism called Asset Tokenization, without the need for broker resources or management fees.

Thus, users buy tokens that represent their property - real estate. In this way, anyone can participate in the game, generate profits, use assets as collateral and more, without the need to maintain the physical integrity of the underlying asset or deal with the complexity of collecting rent.

The platform and its tokenization process are fully legal as the properties are owned by independent corporations, according to the official Landshare website. The shares of these companies are tokenized, making each investor a "legal shareholder" in the assets and the underlying real estate itself.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair keeps trading close to the recent bottom of the wave 3 again, which is located at the level of $55,758. The new, marginal lower low was made at the level of $55,333 during the test, but the whole H4 candle looks like a Pin Bar anyway. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $57,740 and the local technical support at $55,747. The momentum remains weak and negative despite the potential low of the wave 3/C, so any violation of the level of $55,785 would extend the correction towards the level of $55,747 or below. Only a sustained breakout above the level of $62,767 would change the outlook to more bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $75,582
WR2 - $70,896
WR1 - $64,654

Weekly Pivot - $60,209
WS1 - $54,112
WS2 - $49,298
WS3 - $43,190


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin drops amid Indian bill on cryptocurrencies


Bitcoin regained its monthly lows and is trading around $56,000. Ethereum also slipped and remains in the $4,300 area. However, before we get into the technical picture of these trading instruments, we should mention the fact that India is preparing a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies.



The new bill is likely to be introduced in Parliament in a session starting on November 29. According to the bill's description, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is proposing to help the central bank develop an official digital currency. However, at the moment, the full text of the draft law is not yet known or agreed upon, and a number of changes may be made. The statement says the bill seeks to prohibit all private cryptocurrencies in India but will allow certain exceptions to promote the underlying technology of cryptocurrency and its uses.

The Indian authorities do not have the best attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry in general, and it has only worsened in the last few years. The growing interest of the country's citizens in bitcoin and other altcoins is not much welcomed by the current government. It believes that cryptocurrency allows to hide income and evade taxes. In fact, authorities are concerned about loosening controls on money transfers and digital payments. In 2018, the Indian government effectively banned cryptocurrency transactions, but the Supreme Court lifted the restriction in March 2020. In recent months, authorities have called for stricter rules for virtual coin transactions.

Against the backdrop of the new bill, many investors are concerned that the government could ban cryptocurrency trading once the bill is introduced in parliament. Because of this, the bitcoin exchange rate pegged to the local currency has fallen very significantly. Bitcoin dropped 12.2% on one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, Wazirx, compared to an overall decline of only 1.8%.

Ripple hopes for best Notably,

Ripple is fighting with the SEC for quite some time. It's not just the coins that are at stake, but the company as well.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the legal battle with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to be closed next year. Obviously, we won't see any better news this year. "We're seeing pretty good progress despite a slow-moving judicial process," Garlinghouse added.

The company has been making similar statements throughout the year, but the problem has not yet been resolved. "Clearly we're seeing good questions asked by the judge. And I think the judge realizes this is not just about Ripple, this will have broader implications," the Ripple executive said.

In December, the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple, Garlinghouse and founder and executive chairman Chris Larsen, accusing the company of raising $1.3 billion in unregistered digital-asset securities by issuing XRP tokens. However, Ripple and executives argue that XRP should not be considered as a security.



As for XRP

A breakout of major support around $1 might increase the pressure on the trading instrument, which would open a direct path to the 0.8479 area. However, every time this level slumped, the bulls took advantage of the momentum and bought the cheaper asset. If it manages to get above $1.1775 resistance, then a return to $1.2895 and then a test of $1.41 can be expected.

As for Bitcoin

After another attempted rise to the $60,000 area, bitcoin lost ground very quickly and has now returned to major support at $56,400. Further growth of the trading instrument will depend on whether the bulls manage to regain control of the $60,000 resistance or not. If it manages to do that, a push up to the $64,000 area can be expected. If it breaks below $56,400, there will be problems. In that case, the pressure on bitcoin will increase and we will see a renewal of the lows of $53,600 and $50,900.



As for Ethereum

Another renewal of $4,110 support returned demand for Ethereum, allowing bulls to drive the trading instrument to $4,360 resistance, a very problematic position for altcoin buyers. A break of this level would quickly bring Ethereum back to $4,578. If a breakout of $4,110 occurs, however, serious pressure on ETH is likely to return, paving the way to the lows of $3,885 and $3,682.








Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto enthusiasts turn to technical indicators for clues



Amid another hectic day in the market, crypto enthusiasts are turning to technical indicators for clues as to where bitcoin and ether might go.

Having lost about 20% since reaching its all-time high earlier this month, bitcoin was traded below the 50-day moving average. Many crypto market players consider it to be a bearish move. Meanwhile, ether failed to settle above its 50-day moving average on Wednesday and closed below it at the end of the trading day.



According to senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, the second-largest token encountered good tech support at $4,000. "It seems like a battle with the long leveraged from the higher levels being flushed out and the longer-term, more institutional supply below the market," he said. McGlone sees ether consolidating its bull run in the $4,000 to $5,000 range.

Cryptocurrencies have sold in recent days amid a number of concerns including BTC and ETH seeing their largest options expiry date for 5 months on November 26, increased regulatory risks as well as many tokens that have risen rapidly in a short period of time.

News that India is preparing legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies appears to be behind the final stage of bitcoin sell-off on Wednesday on exchanges popular with Indian investors. At some point, bitcoin plunged nearly 14% on WazirX but little changed elsewhere.

Some analysts also cite decreasing risk appetite in the broader stock market where profitless tech companies have suffered from the declines.

"We see bitcoin losing value when we see a sell-off in the more speculative parts of the equity market," Chief Market Strategist at National Securities Art Hogan said.

As a result, BTC dropped by 3.1% to $55,908 on Wednesday, while ETH fell by 4.2% to $4,168.

According to Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., both ETH and BTC have been traded around their lows since the previous week: "These lows – $ 55,500 on XBT and $ 4,000 on XET – are the most important short- long-term support levels".

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, notes that despite the fact that bitcoin has pulled back sharply within its medium-term uptrend, it is showing signs of short-term downside exhaustion according to a number of indicators. On top of that, BTC is now oversold, which increases the likelihood that it reached the bottom.

"We expect bitcoin to resume its medium-term uptrend, eventually allowing it to break through resistance near $65,000 for a projected long-term measured movement of $90,000," Stockton said.






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC/USD on November 25. Bitcoin wave analysis


We continue our analysis of the main cryptocurrency using Elliott theory on the hourly timeframe.

BTCUSD H1:




In the last section of the chart for the cryptocurrency pair BTC/USD, the formation of a new bearish zigzag can be seen. As a part of this zigzag, the bearish impulse wave (A) has come to an end. Wave (A) consists of five sub-waves of smaller wave levels 1-2-3-4-5. The final sub-wave 5 took the form of a final diagonal.

Correction wave (B) is now in progress and may be completed near the 62255.00 level. Wave (B) is likely to take the form of a double W-X-Y zigzag. At the level of 62255.00, the value of ascending wave (B) will be 50% of wave (A). The possibility of reaching the indicated coefficient is high.

Thus, based on this information, growth should be expected in the coming days, so it is recommended to consider opening buy trades to take profits at this level.


Trading recommendation: Buy from the current level, take profit 62255.00.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021